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Red Reposter - 8/3/09

Is Banana Bob running this team into the ground?

Is Banana Bob running this team into the ground?

Well, it's been a few days since the Scott Rolen deal and I've had enough time to let my limbic reactions subside and give it some real honest thought.  The good thing is I no longer think the deal was a disaster.  Rolen does make the team better and since the Jays are paying his salary this year we are actually saving some cash this season.  The difference between Rolen's and EdE's salarys for next year isnt negligible, but I'm ok with the price of the upgrade.  It's not a good deal, and I dont think any team in the Reds position should be getting older and more expensive, but this isnt The Trade part II.  I guess there is some solace in that.

But there is something else I'm really concerned about.  I'm afraid that Bob Castellini is meddling too much.  Last year he infamous said "The losing stops now!" when firing Wayne Krivsky, and my big fear is that he not only is rigidly sticking to this axiom, but he also does not know the first thing about building a winning baseball club.  I'm afraid that by "losing" he meant "rebuilding", and this is why this last place team was a buyer rather than a seller last week. 

The rumor was that Jocketty had deals in place for both Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, but Banana Bob nixed the deals, reportedly because he wasnt willing to eat any of the salary.  I understand that every owner in baseball controls the purse strings and righfully they should, so I can understand why he would frown on this.  In the end though it's for the benefit of the team (assuming the return is reasonable).  So if Bob is stingy with the cash, then why was he willing to add payroll to get Scott Rolen?  The only difference I can see in the deals is that one is seen as "rebuilding" and the other is seen as "going for it".  This is the wrong way to play baseball.

Jerry Hairston Jr was the only veteran moved at the deadline, but David Weathers most definitely should have been dealt and guys like Arthur Rhodes and maybe even Jonny Gomes should have at least been actively shopped.  And do you remember the rumor from this spring that the Yankees were willing to take Francisco Cordero for Xavier Nady, only to have the deal cut off by Castellini?

I know the evidence I have built this case upon is flimsy rumor and conjecture, but it still leaves me wondering if we have the next Peter Angelos running our team.  Dusty Baker is frustratingly stubborn, but at least we know he can be fired or not re-signed.  Walt Jocketty may be unwilling to use the DL or cut a worthless veteran, but perhaps these money-related decisions are out of his hands.  My biggest fear is that the problems that management has running this team are not fixable, that the real problem is with the only guy who cant be fired.

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Arroyo/Harang rumors

I didn’t hear any of them, who were the teams rumored to be involved?

If peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.

by btcoop71 on Aug 3, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Yankees

were rumored to be interested in Arroyo, and are rumored to still be interested. But they think he’s overpaid, and wouldn’t do the deal unless the Reds ate some salary. Which Bob wouldn’t agree to.

The Dodgers were also among the interested parties. They and the Yankees had scouts at Arroyo’s and Harang’s last starts before the deadline.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with everything you said

I’ve become convinced that Bob is making baseball decisions and has been for some time.

1) I think Dusty was his hiring, and because of that I think if Dusty wants a player he goes to Bob and Bob makes the GM go get him (CPat, Hairston, Taveras)

2) One would think that the GM would have some say in who starts, but it seems like Dusty puts whoever the hell he wants on the field with no repercussions.

3) If you look at Walt’s trade history, he’s won some and lost some, but he doesn’t really ever get fleeced like he did with Rolen. I’m completely convinced that Bob told him to get Rolen at any cost and Walt had to give up Stewart and Roenicke even though he knew it was a terrible deal.

This is why I’m so depressed about this team. I think Walt is a smart guy and a decent GM with a pretty good track record, but I think he has to do what his boss says, and his boss is irrational, impatient, and ignorant.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The trade for Rolen goes against everything management has done up until now. That's why it's a bad trade.

1. Dusty is a terrible manager. He won in San Fran simply due to Bonds and Kent, and a weak division. If I realize this, how come Castellini doesn’t?
2. No fan of the Reds would have signed Tavares and Lincoln. Again, how come we realize this but Castellini doesn’t?
3. They start the youth movement by amazingly trading away Dunn for Owings and Herrera, on a rent-a-player deal, and by actually getting something (Masset) for KGJ.
4. They bolster the bullpen with Rhodes, Weathers, and earlier signing – Cordero. Also added Masset and Herrera.
5. Why does Brook Jacoby still have a job?
6. Every Reds fan knew SS needed to be addressed in the offseason, but strangely enough, Castellini & Co. didn’t do anything about it.
7. Castellini & Co. said in the offseason that signing a RH power bat was priority #1. Hmmm……..was it?

Ownership has now proven that when it opens it’s mouth, don’t listen. They don’t say what they mean. Who is making decisions? What direction are they going? It appears even they don’t know these answers.

by Dude Rock on Aug 3, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They got Herrera from the Rangers in the Hamilton deal

They got Owings, Castillo, and Dallas Buck from Arizona.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, it's easy now to say everyone knew we needed a SS in the offseason

but all I remember anyone talking about was signing a power bat for LF.

I don’t blame management one bit for not going after a SS. Gonzo makes 5.4 million this year, that’s a lot to just sit the bench while we pay some expensive free agent SS. It wasn’t unreasonable to think he could hit .250 while playing average defense this year, it just didn’t work out. Now’s the time to drop him like a bad habit.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you can go back and look in the archives

it’ll be hard to find, but LF and SS were my two top priorities for the Reds in the off-season.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 3, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But realistically

given what the team had (before the Nix, Gomes, Taveras signings) and the assumed budget they were working with

LF was clearly the priority, especially with Gonzo’s contract. It’s not right, but the reality is if you have a veteran making a fair bit of money, you are going to hope that he can play at a reasonable level and focus the money you do have elsewhere.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Rolen Deal was 100% Jocketty

To the (great) disagreement by some of his development staff, Jocketty was the final word on the Rolen deal after the financial end was mapped out. Castellini has a fairly standard line he uses: “Will it make the team better?”

by Mr. Redlegs on Aug 3, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How could anyone possibly answer yes?

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 3, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it does make the team better this year

Next year, I’m not so sure, and it makes the team much worse after 2010.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, as BK put it very well

“It makes the team slightly better this year and a whole lot worse in the future.”

by Brendanukkah on Aug 3, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't sound like yes to me.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 3, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Harang y Arroyo

Where are these rumors? Link?

by Real_Name on Aug 3, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i dont have a link to any of this Harang/Arroyo stuff, sorry

as BubbaFan explained upthread, the Arroyo/Yankees rumor was pretty solid, but the Harang thing came from Twitter, iirc.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's already here

He’s just wearing his Paul Janish costume, so Dusty doesn’t realize it yet.

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Aug 3, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doug Melvin talked about a big deal that didn't happen

Harang would be a perfect fit here and they could add salary and provide some good prospects. DM and WJ go on cruises together, but it is in the same division so maybe not.

by ol Pete on Aug 3, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Many articles have been written about the succesful business man who buys a baseball team

and, like his business, he expects success. He runs the same formula: fire the losers, hire proven/past winners. And, he achieves the same results: nothing. A lot of owners do not understand that baseball isn’t like home building or widget making; there’s a very finite amount of talent, lots of people know the talent and no matter what you are willing to pay the other guy, he won’t trade it to you (Halberstam tells the story of Auggie Busch wanting to buy the rights to a great ballplayer from the Cubs and telling his people he didn’t care about the price. The GM failed to obtain the rights, because, as the opposing GM pointed out, Mr. Wrigley has as mush need of 250,000 as Mr. Busch does.)

Building a team is slow and expensive and it’s about process. Big Bob may not understand that. if so, he’s in quite august company.

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

WWMSD

what would marge schott do?

by GrooveLeg on Aug 3, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had hopes for Lindner

Anyone willing to stage coups in foreign countries to keep the price of produce low wouldn’t have qualms about breaking some other’s legs, right? But, no, Carl was in it for the “civic duty,” which roughly translates into the city (the civic portions) paying him tesn of millions of dollars, so he could fulfill his “duty” of making a 300% profit.

See, I thought he’d screw other owners and the joke was on me, because he screwed me and the tax payers of Cincinnati (of which, I am not one, but never fear, here I got screwed by Jim irsay, so it’s a wash).

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Standard Oil Stadium?

Better than PBS, it’ll hold FF’s and a SB no?

by mdccclxix on Aug 3, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Have you seen WDR's latest in the Project Mayhem tasks

I think it is the best one yet.

If peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.

by btcoop71 on Aug 3, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, haha.

WDR is really doing some impressive things.. Like I’m surprised they haven’t made national media yet. That’s some seriously crazy shit.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To me, it's a shame those 'revolutionaries' are so inspired to take action over something

as petty as a football team. I, of course, do passionately care about the success of the sports teams, but even still I find it stupid. Get a life, and devote your time and energy to something relevant if you choose. Instead, they’re developmentally-retarded men playing make-believe that they are really stirring things up (“Project Mayhem” – LOL). (Admittedly, I am somewhat bitter, since I tried to join them in their ‘mayhem’ but I didn’t know the secret pass phrase to get into their clubhouse).

Also, their billboards were embarrassingly amateurish, looked like they sent the billboard company a lo-res bitmap they made in MS Paint.

He sits alone...Reds are not home.

by Gapper on Aug 3, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying that it's productive

But it’s kind of cool, just in terms of a social phenomenon / collective action problem.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is kind of cool

This is the first I heard of it. Man, that’s got to be serious bucks, sending planes to fly over the Bengals practice.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

According the the Reds official twitter

Volquez had Tommy John surgery this morning. Out 12 months. Uh oh.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow.

That really sucks. Made my Monday just that much better.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Aug 3, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, shit

At least we have some pitching depth in AAA…….wait a second….

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We will have 5 candidates in 2010 without Volquez

in Cueto/Harang/Bailey/Arroyo/Owings. Maloney would get a look too. Of course who knows what will happen between now and then.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Aug 3, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maloney sucks

half of the others are question marks, and there’s a good chance one of them gets traded anyway.

Yeah, no worries.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 3, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, having Zach Stewart in the system would make me feel a little bit better about this

The rotation for next year is now set in stone. Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Owings. There’s no more room for error, and no room for injuries unless they pick up another reliable starter in the offseason. They don’t have the money to do that unless they get rid of Harang or Arroyo, which would mean they need to get two starters with Harang’s or Arroyo’s money if they trade them. Other options are trading Cordero to free up money or taking a chance on Maloney or another minor leaguer. I don’t like this at all.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's Travis Wood too

not that he’s a great option, but if you are going to mention Maloney, you have to mention him.

I think with all those guys we’ll be able to field a passable starting rotation. The problem is that we now have zero flexibility for trades, etc.

I would love to see Cordero traded but there’s no way it happens, so now we’re stuck with the same rotation (that’s basically full of #3-#4 type starters) and no possibility for salary relief.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At least with Cordero

He’s making a shitton of money, but he’s performing the way he’s expected to. It doesn’t get said enough that Coco has been fantastic this season.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 3, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, and if our payroll was 120 million I'd love to keep him

But with all the other problems on this team, we can’t afford it.

The problem is everyone else knows that 12 mil is way too much for a closer too.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully he won't kill people like UU

If peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.

by btcoop71 on Aug 3, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd love to see Wood get a shot

But call me skeptical that he can stick in a major league rotation. There might not be another choice, but we’ll probably see what he can do in ST next year.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True, and he might surprise,

but even still, he’d be another #3 or #4 type starter at best, and you can’t count on that, meaning we probably have to keep Arroyo and Harang around. It’s just too much of a risk not too, especially since Bob seems determined to win the WS next year.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Walt has a lot of decisions to make

And has to start making smart decisions instead of overvaluing players he has a sentimental attachment to.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we can still make a trade in the offseason.

alonso could get us an established, expensive starter
dickerson could get us a veteran, average starter
arroyo could get us a young, green, solid prospect

thoughts?

by GrooveLeg on Aug 3, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What if Alonso is ready next year?

Votto to LF, Alonso at 1B, C-Dick to CF… then would you still make the moves?

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alonso won't be ready until Sept. 2010 at the earliest,

especially with the glacial pace at which this org. promotes its prospects.

I wouldn’t be quick to trade him, but he’s not going to help much next season.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guess it depends on whether or not we're going to win next year.

Which depends in large part on if pitching recovers, because we still won’t be able to hit unless Jay Bruce realizes some of his potential.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stubbs to CF, not C-Dick

Alonso isn’t ready yet, and that still doesn’t give us any more flexibility in the rotation.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are we pretty sure he won't be ready next Spring?

Regardless of progress the rest of this year/in winter ball? No way?

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not 100% no, but right now he only has 68 plate appearances above A ball

That doesn’t seem like enough to push Joey to LF and just give him the spot.

Plus, he’ll still be recovering from the wrist injury. Better to let him do that in AAA

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's still hurt

I don’t think he’ll sniff AAA this season, and the Reds won’t put him on the MLB roster without getting some time in Louisville. I think he’ll start there next year, and we’ll be clamoring to see him get called up for most of the season until he comes up in September.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, that's depressing.

Sorry to start this conversation in another spot too. Just curious as to what we have to be hopeful for. I didn’t know he was still hurt.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, what's C-Dick's role?

Isn’t he valuable to the organization? He was a top prospect for a while, and he’s still good at getting on base.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

He’s never been a top prospect, but he’s got the tools to contribute to a major league team. He may get another chance to prove himself in the lineup, but as a 4th outfielder, you could do worse.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought he was at least top 15 at one point

But I’ll take your word on that. His consistent OBP and speed / high defensive and baserunning ceiling make him someone I’d want to keep around, given the regularity of OF injuries. But I suppose it depends on what we might get in return.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's all i'm saying too...

i think he is a 4th OF on a great team, so i’m sure there are a few teams who would want him starting everyday. he’s a pretty decent trade chip in my opinion.

by GrooveLeg on Aug 3, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is kind of why I'm ok with Gomes/Dickerson

Both seem to produce above average in a limited/300 AB role.. at least that is my impression.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only problem with that is

if you have a good RH bat, you don’t want him sitting 70% of the time when there’s a righty on the mound. A guy like Gomes, with pretty extreme RH/LH splits is good for that, but guys like Heisey and Frazier hit both equally well, so there’s no reason to platoon them.

CDick is a GREAT 4th OF and a decent starting CF.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stubbs and C-Dick are pretty interchangeable at the MLB level

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Aug 3, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i don't think he'll be ready

plus i’m not a fan of moving votto to LF. i want votto’s legs to be as fresh as possible and there’s a higher likelihood of that happening with him being entrenched at 1B. his arm is suspect too.

i’d love to have Dick in CF but he could be a valuable trade chip for a guy not really in the plans.

i’d also like to see what we could get for Stubbs. Heisey is my future CF if i had to choose between the two.

by GrooveLeg on Aug 3, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heisey's still a bit unproven though

He’s had a tremendous year, but it’s hard to say he’s a solid bet to be a good starter, and Stubbs’ CF defense is the best in the entire minors. He could probably win multiple GGs there, so if he hits at all, he’s the better option.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, the defense alone makes me want to see Stubbs in CF.

We’ve been aching for D there since forever.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no argument there...

i think in the long run heisey will be a better hitter and an adequate fielder. he won’t be jim edmonds at either, but i see him as an eric byrnes (even though i have no idea how fast he is).

by GrooveLeg on Aug 3, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's been hurt on and off all year.

I’m not expecting much from him at this point. Maybe he can be a useful bullpen arm, but I doubt he’s being considered for a rotation spot right now.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, man.

Don’t kill the messenger, kill the man with the poking stick.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You Are Wrong, Wrong, Wrong

Castellini is NOT “meddling” in player personnel and he’s nowhere close to being Angelos. His entire involvement is (rightfully) about money. This team is $15 million in the red for this season and at the draft and the week of the trade deadline he was on conference call with front office staff and scouts to talk about what they can and can’t do financially.

Otherwise, Krivsky and Jocketty have worked within the framework of their budget, and anytime an expense went over that budget they have (rightfully) consulted and needed the approval of ownership. That’s it.

And why shouldn’t any owner reject deals in which they have to eat a large portion of salary? In these deals, the less money you eat the lower the player return. So, if you’re going to eat, say, 50 percent of a contract, why not keep the player and wait for a potentially better market in the offseason?

This is just smart financing and the prerogative of the owner, not meddling as a GM that you wrongly imply. Look around: there were a lot of owners involved in trade deadline talks for one reason—the monies.

by Mr. Redlegs on Aug 3, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

of course the owner is consulted whenever money is involved

my worry, and i admitted it was based on conjecture, is that Bob is unwilling to rebuild and make the moves that need to be done because he sees it as more losing. he doesnt want to eat money on Arroyo’s and Harang’s contracts but then he’s ok taking on money for Rolen? there may be some other unseen circumstances influencing these decisions, but to me it seems Bob wont let the team move vets because that is a negative in the public’s eyes. on the other hand, picking up a proven vet like Rolen is seen as making a push. im not accusing Bob of any of this, im just saying that this is my worry.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He approved some trades last season

Like Dunn and Griffey

Beware of the toothpick, it knows what you're thinking.

by Pilsner73 on Aug 3, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

perhaps it was tolerable last year because "the losing stops now" mantra was still a bit flexible

but to move vets this season would prove his hot air to be just that. “it’s a year-and-a-half afterward and we are still spinning our tires?” i dont know, im just spitballing now.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We've been over it many times before

and many people here refuse to listen, but the whole issue of “refusing to eat salary” stems from a basic misunderstanding of sunk costs.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 3, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a hard time believing the Reds are

15 million in the Red this year. The published reports had only the Yankees having an income loss last year(although the franchise value is obviously a different story). Forbes had the Reds with a 13 million profit for 2008 on Revenues of 161 million. YTD attendance/player cost/ MLB profit sharing hasnt changed much from 08 to 09- so I dont see how they had such a dramatic change in their income sheet.

by davidmac84 on Aug 3, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Believe It

Castellini announced it on one of his conference calls with the development and front office staff. They’ll need revenue sharing monies and possibly dealing off one of the big three contracts to break even. They lost major corp. sponsorships this year, their radio/TV ad revenues are way down, they lowered ticket and concession prices and they had only $42-45 mil in gate receipts last year anyhow.

Remember: player payroll is just one part of the business. Operations is another, development another. Just because you see a payroll of $75 mil doesn’t mean there aren’t other significant expenses.

As for sunk costs, they still have to be paid and dead money on contracts in following years is murder on a team with the Reds’ budget.

by Mr. Redlegs on Aug 3, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess thats my point

I dont believe it for a second.
I hate to break it to you but sometimes owners of private businesses are not completely forthcoming about the exact status of their income sheet.
For this number to be correct you are in the ballpark of Florida Marlin revenue for 2008- so I dont believe that at all.

by davidmac84 on Aug 3, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe it

The economy has been just brutal on sports.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldnt

and Redlegs stated 2 completely figures in his posts.

  1. he states the reds are negative 15 million YTD which is on its face absurb.
  2. post he states Castelline says he possibly needs to move a big contract this year to break even.
    The big contracts are in the 12million range with the Reds on the hook for a remaining 4-5 million for the rest of the year. Which I guess indicates the Reds may lose around 4 million this year(if they dont trade a Harang) with the wierd comment that they would have to dip into MLB revenue sharing monies as if this revenue stream was different than any other income input.
    I would guess right now the Reds will be on pace to break even with revenues dropping from the 160 mill range to 145-150.

by davidmac84 on Aug 3, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here

But Forbes confirms Mr. Redlegs’ number for gate receipts: $45 million. And they questioned the Reds’ financial strategy.

The Cincinnati Reds, who control stadium operations at Great American Ball Park, took a chance during the recession when the team made a big push to increase their premium seating revenue during the off-season. They crafted an all-inclusive ticket package for 1,650 club seats (tickets go for between $85 and $100 a game and include a buffet meal and two drink tickets for alcoholic beverages). Concessionaire Delaware North Sportservice spent $2.5 million renovating the ballpark’s largest indoor hospitality area, a 13,000 square foot lounge behind first base, and built outdoor club boxes down the right field line. The remaining club seats along the first base line and the Club Home seats behind home plate, have been converted to all-inclusive tickets that go for up to $100 a game. If fans decide not to pay more for tickets during the recession, despite the added value of food and beverages, the team’s value will decline because their sponsorship and television revenue can not pick up the slack.

Attendance is down over last year, plus they lowered ticket prices. If they lost a big sponsorship, they could be a big hole.

I don’t know what the sponsorship situation for the Reds is, but teams all over the country are struggling. Jeff Conine’s little league system saw corporate sponsoships drop from over $44,000 to $3,000. Last year, the Scranton-Wilkes Yankees sold out the first level of every game, due to corporations that bought season tickets. This year, you can go there for just about any game and have your pick of seats. Even the Yankees haven’t been able to sell their luxury suites and legends seats, aimed at corporations, and were forced to lower the price and give away a lot of tickets.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Forbes also says revenue was $191 M

So…… that’s a lot of money! Only 75M of that to players. Leaves quite a bit of money for other things.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Forbes is question their business strategy

but the larger point is the Reds still had profit of 12 million last year on revenues of 161 million. Attendance is down around 4% YTD. The MLB revenue sharing package is primarily media contracts that have not been renogiated- and I believe this is the same with local media contracts.
I am sure they have taken a big hit on their local corporate sponsorship- but again this is a fairly small revenue input.
To have a change from the 12 million profit to the YTD loss of 15 million- you are talking about a revenue change in the magnitude of 20% or a revenue figure dropping under 130 million(or sub Florida Marlin revenue).
Again there is simply no way the Reds revenue has dropped that much when the media contracts havent been reworked and the attendance worse case will be down around 5% and payroll will be slightly down when you count the Toronto contribution to Rolen’s contract this year.

by davidmac84 on Aug 3, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Presumably

the conference call was earlier in the season, before the Rolen deal. According to Forbes, the Reds spent $7 million more on players this year than last year (as of April 2009).

Hard to say how much revenue has dropped, when we don’t know where most of it comes from.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Never Said YTD

You assumed it. The projected loss is $15 million in the red for 2009 season. The Rangers have already borrowed from the MLB Emergency Fund.

The 2009 Forbes report is based on 2008 figures.

And there’s no way Castellini lies to his staff about that deficit since one call was about signability of draft picks and the other was about how to manage monies in trades.

The Reds’ radio and TV contracts were not renegotiated, true. But the Reds get almost nothing from rights fees. The team is responsible for the ad sales, which in a typical year does far better than the rights fee. They went to this format in 2006 or 2007, I believe.

Given the state of the corporate economy, the fact the Reds would be down substantially in total revenues is not out of the question. The fact they are dependent upon ad sales in this economy for their local radio/TV revenues is near-disastrous.

by Mr. Redlegs on Aug 3, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

15 million loss

is sub 140 million revenue- thats simply is not going to happen. Thats the equivalent of the Reds local revenue sources matching the Marlins and in a year where the gate is going to be off 4-5% that is an impossibility.
Plus you have attributed 2 wildly different statements to our dear owner. 1) 15 million dollar loss; 2) the Reds need to trade a big contract to break even(approximately 4 million dollar loss) with a wierd statement that seems to indicate our owner considers the profiting sharing stream of revenue separate our somehow outside his p and l calculation.
If I had to guess and I would bet I am fairly accurate the Reds revenue range will fall around 150- 160 million- expenses were flat to slightly increasing and the worse case scenario for the Reds is break even to around loss under 3 million.
And yes sometimes owners slighly color their financial picture too pesimistically even in internal matters.

by davidmac84 on Aug 3, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how can you say that?
Thats the equivalent of the Reds local revenue sources matching the Marlins and in a year where the gate is going to be off 4-5% that is an impossibility.

The gate is a small part of their revenue. If the entire league’s revenue is down, that will hurt the shared revenue, too.

I haven’t heard anything specifically about the Reds, but I have heard that baseball, and sports in general, is really hurting financially. Like, catastrophic, historic, drops in revenue. A lot worse than they’re letting on publicly.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I havent read any source

that suggests a signicant decline in overall MLB revenue in 09.
You are right the gate is becoming a smaller percentage of the overall revenue mix which is helpful to MLB.
2008 attendance was down 1% and revenue was up over 5%.
The MLB has been extremely successful with their internet strategies another diversifier of their revenue base.
And the largest revenue streams- the media contracts- have not been adjusted- these are long term contracts.

by davidmac84 on Aug 3, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but look at the overall economy

I like tax revenue as a statistic, because it’s harder to fudge than most corporate and government numbers. And it’s falling off a cliff. Income tax receipts down 22%, corporate tax receipts down 57%. That kind of drop is bound to show up in the bottom lines of discretionary businesses like sports.

I don’t think tv rights are as big a part of baseball revenue as you think. A lot of it is sponsorships. Everything from selling tv and radio ads to selling the rights to put logos on stadiums and scoreboards to promotions like the current Mastercard jeans thing. And ad sales are cratering.

And really, why would the Reds have any reason to lie? Companies generally try to avoid announcing bad financial news.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 4, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well said.

Bob has some money but in this eceonomic free fall we are in, I don’t blame him for not wanting to eat salaries and I sure wouldn’t expect him to DFA a player if he could anything for that player.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Aug 3, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FYI - Asst. GM Miller is hosting a chat now @ Reds.com

Head over and see if we can get some questions answered.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's already done, and didn't answer any real questions.

It was stuff like, “Do you think the hype surrounding the trade deadline is good for the game?”

The one thing he said of substance is that Cozart/Valaika/Frazier/Janish could all be in on the SS thing next year.

He also talked a lot about Frazier, how they would feel comfortable plugging him in anywhere in the infield or in LF

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh. Same as most of his chats.

He really avoids substance and these chats are a huge sham. Guess that’s to be expected.

Transcript is already available. He says there “may be” a big deal in August.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just like monkeys "may" fly out of my butt and hell "may" freeze over.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just trying to be optimistic!

Trying to keep fandom alive!

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They will and it will.

Just sayin’

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Aug 3, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is nycredsfan just a pseudonym for Mr. Miller?

Seems to me you guys think the same things! And, I’ve never see both of you together in the same place!

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

spooky, huh?

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is that a denial or a non-denial denial.

I will get to the bottom of this one way or the other

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Minor league followers, question:

Who are guys on the farm now that have a good shot at making the team next year in ST?

My assumption is Stubbs, Alonso, Frazier, Heisey.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Alonso's not on that list

The other three are. Pitching-wise, Travis Wood and Matt Maloney could be darkhorses for the rotation, and Pedro Viola should be ready to contribute in the bullpen, and you might be able to throw Ben Jukich and Enerio Del Rosario in there too. Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika will see lots of time in the infield too.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Juan Francisco, even with Rolen?

I imagine they’ll keep him down all year unless Rolen goes down, which I guess is likely, to keep his PT up.

Viola and Jukich are kind of exciting. Kind of depressing that Alonso isn’t ready yet. I thought he’d be a quick-to-the-majors type guy.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Francisco isnt even close to the bigs

he is still incredibly raw, both defensively and offensively. i dont think he should be in the majors before ’11.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was my impression.

I don’t want him to be Wily Mo v. 2 (IF/3B)

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the Edwin comparisons are fitting

I don’t think Juan will come up and start, but the power he has could make him in contention for a bench spot. The best part about him is that he’s only 22, so he won’t be rushed. Scrabbles is right that he’s probably too raw to make the team, but I think we could see him sooner rather than later if he tears up AAA next year.

Viola should come up and do what Roenicke does, just from the left side, and wouldn’t be a bad guy to have if you find a good deal for Rhodes. Jukich is more of a long relief type, and could spot start if needed. I think he’ll be a midseason guy next year, and will ride the I-71 shuttle for most of the year.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope he's not another Edwin.

Is his defensive ceiling higher? Can he be more consistent? Does his approach need changing?

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who knows

I imagine he’s not another Edwin, because they will move him to the OF

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't see him in the OF

He’s huge, he’d probably be worse than Dunn out there.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could add Cozart to the list too

with the need for a SS, they’ll probably give him a shot, and word is he’s going to be moved up to AAA as soon as he’s healthy. (he’s dealing with something minor right now, should be back this week)

He has the best SS defense in the minors, almost as good as Janish, and he’s shown an ability to hit, walk, and show some pop this season. He’s gotta be in the discussion.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, forgot about him.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A couple of other names to add to the list

Dallas Buck should get some kind of shot next year if the injury bug hits, and the organization likes Jordan Smith and Matt Klinker too. These are the names we’ll be talking about when injuries happen next year and we need a name from Louisville.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's been getting back up after his TJ surgery

Problem is, he’s injured right now too, so who knows when he’ll be ready to contribute.

BKs point is good, there is a lot of potential depth in AA/AAA, but none of those guys are going to be #1 or #2 guys, and with Volkie out, we’re stuck with a bunch of #3 or #4 starters, and there’s no way we can afford anything better next year.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But, I always thought Buck could be that #2 guy if he ever got healthy

He was EXTREMELY well thought of in college. I say he’s Tim Hudson II and you won’t change my mind, so don’t try!

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sickels has him at low 90s with sinking action

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's not Janish

His defense is comparable, but his bat has the potential to be much better

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Janish with hitting.

Will our Janish ever learn to hit? I think I’d be happy with Cozart/Janish next year. Couldn’t be worse than AGon.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cozart Is the Word

Cozart is the closest player they have to being an everyday MLB shortstop who will also hit a little. I heard a projection of him for September 2010.

by Mr. Redlegs on Aug 3, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Minors

Healthly Darrell Thompson – I think he would be a great long man / bullpen arm.
Matt Maloney
Drew Stubs
Craig Tatum(bench catcher)
Travis Wood
Viola

by Dave from Louisville on Aug 3, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We'll see on Bray too

Is he going to be the same pitcher we had before his arm troubles? I’d like to see him get some more seasoning in the minors before bringing him back. He’s an unknown at this point.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Craig Tatum isn't a major league player

And I’m not relying on Thompson to contribute anything with how he’s pitched this year.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah TJ isnt the death knell it used to be

but it still means The Wagon will be in the barn pretty much all season next year.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Elbow surgery has become fairly routine (unlike shoulder surgery). But it does take a full year for a pitcher to recover.

I’m glad they were at least honest about it. Often, teams will say eight months, trying to be optimistic. It almost always takes a full year. Even if they start pitching sooner, with relapses, tendonitis, etc., it ends up being a full year. Or more.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He shoudl come back at 100%.

Hell, I think we should make Cueto do it now too, since 2010 just turned into a pumpkin. Make Johnny and his max effort delivery have TJ surgery tomorrow and he and Edinson can rehab together

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope the Reds

Decide to be smart with Cueto in August/September, and back off his innings a bit, maybe skip him a start or two. This needs to be done especially in September when you can add extra arms to the staff. Might as well find out if Maloney or LeCure could be options next year.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Aug 3, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's actually a really good idea

Let Travis Wood get a start or two to see if we’ve got anything for next year.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

blah

this trade sucks.

by Eastwindquinn on Aug 3, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

wow

timely AND insightful!

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey

I’m happy to see Quinn again.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 3, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and take Charlie's advice and read the fayplacement's article. It is an awesome look inside the clubhouse

I can’t imagine the 19 year old me pulling any of that off….I do have admiration for those guys.

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Great article

With all of the change and stress these guys go through, it’s a wonder they can play at all, although I guess the ball field might be the one place they truly feel comfortable.

That movie from earlier this year, “Sugar” was about the same type of thing. Anyone seen it? I’ve heard it’s good and I want to check it out.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Aug 3, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I forgot about that, NYC

I heard it was awesome. I’m gonna have to find it somewhere. funny thing is, apparently Willy steals more than bases and basehits? Volquez made it sound like Willy is a helluva guy to have around the clubhouse

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

interesting

I didn’t know Janish spoke Spanish. He pitches, he catches, he speaks Spanish. A man of many talents.

Funny how teams provide translators for Chinese and Japanese players, but not Hispanics.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also agreed.

Exemplary use of clubhouse access

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Aug 3, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I question the direction of the club under Mr. Castellini.

“Win now” appears to have been the mantra since he bought the franchise. So, how does dealing Adam Dunn for prospects fit into that? Then, if the club is rebuilding, how is acquiring 34-year-old Scott Rolen for three youngsters part of the plan?

Attaining a .500 winning percentage appears to be a primary goal with the Reds. Maybe Castellini figures to reach .500 and try to go from there. This franchise, though, looks to be trying to compete and rebuild at the same time. With very rare exceptions, that doesn’t work. Had the Reds gone into a true rebuilding mode with the hiring of DanO or even with Krivsky when Castellini took over, the outlook likely would be considerably better.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Aug 3, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Turtle, I miss your insight.

I had it Bengals draft day.. and I haven’t seen you enough since then.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

All good points, TT

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TT for GM

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Aug 3, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No Rolen tonight

And it’s sad Hanigan blew his #2 Hole shot, by taking an 0-for yesterday, he is back down to 7th, so he can get stranded on base. Also, some guy named Janish gets to play SS today? WTF?

Taveras CF
Rosales 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Nix LF
Gomes RF
Hanigan C
Janish SS
Harang P

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Aug 3, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That lineup should be good for 3, maybe 4 hits.

First time I shot her, I shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Aug 3, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

honestly

if Rolen isn’t able to go, it’s the best lineup we can run out there right now, (until Dickerson comes back). Sad, but true. Atleast Dusty took A-Gon out of the lineup, and he doesn’t deserve another start.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Aug 3, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong!

Sutton at 3B batting 1, Hanigan batting 2, Taveras batting 8 behind Janish.

by jsl413 on Aug 3, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

seriously?

i can’t find that anywhere… i don’t know who to believe!!!!

that sucks about hanigan. he should hit 2 every game. i was in favor of benching gonzo for a game. but after this they should sit him because his elbow is not 100%. is it too much to ask for Gomes to hit 4th?

by GrooveLeg on Aug 3, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ah...

gotcha. i agree. sutton get 2 hits as the leadoff batter… why not put him there again? weird…

by GrooveLeg on Aug 3, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't push it...

Taveras CF 0-4
Rosales 3B 0-4
Votto 1B 1-2 BB
Phillips 2B 0-3
Nix LF 1-3
Gomes RF 1- 3
Hanigan C 0-3
Janish SS 0-3
Harang P 0-1

I’m predicting 3 hits 2runs
Harang gives up 4 runs in 4 innings

Reds lose 7 – 2
Hope I’m wrong – way wrong – The line up is about the best you can do unless maybe Sutton at 3b but I don’t know if he can play it and he and Rosy are interchangeable offensively. Hannigan’s obp over the last few games has got to be dismal..ah but no Agon.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Aug 3, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sutton gets two hits last night and sits.

Thanks, Dusty.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can Sutton

play 3rd base?

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Aug 3, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I bet he can play 3B

a lot better than he can play outfield.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

holy crap

Janish is alive after all.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 3, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...I wonder how Rosie will handle the two spot again. He did ok last time didn't he?

(not saying I wouldn’t rather have Rolen in there…) Is there any word on his status?

"If he raced his pregnant wife he'd finish third." --Tommy Lasorda(on catcher Mide Scioscia)

by chazzilla on Aug 3, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no and teh Fay should have foun out more

any one of ous could have said “maybe he is still feeling the effects of the HBP”. I should go easier on Fay, but it’s silly that he can’t find that info out. Btw, has anyone gone to the Rockies blog and complained about Marquis? It’d petulent and silly, but that was such a bad piece of luck. I now he didn’t intend it, but it doesn’t change teh fact that our expensive new 3B is down.

by Red_Poodle on Aug 3, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

having Rosales in the two hole is almost as bad as having Gonzo....ALMOST

China doll is already out?

So, ladies and gentlemen, Dusty , Uncle Walt, and Bog Bob give you your 2010 Reds! Read it and weep Pittsburgh! All the sucking for three times the cash. (To be fair, you’d have to replace Nix with the Bruce, which, presumably, makes it a little less sucky).

I fail to see why this team keeps losing, unless it’s the fact that they have no defense or offense or pitching

by timb116 on Aug 3, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am not as down on the Rolen trade as others are.

On the contrary, Rolen for Encarnacion seems like a steal for the Reds.

Sure, Rolen is 34. But he is still pretty damn productive. Much more so than Encarnacion, who, like so many prospects, never really developed into anything.

Why anyone would rather have Encarnacion at 3B over Rolen is beyond me.

The other two prospects are just that. Prospects. Anyone remember a prospect for the Reds named Homer Bailey? Prospects are prospects. Most of them are just guys to fill out AAA rosters so these teams have enough minor leaguers to field a team.

As far as Harang rumors, I can’t imagine the Reds would get much for him. Who wants a player who, for two years in a row, has taken three months off in the middle of the year? It’s not like he’s a Cliff Lee type with a decent ERA but a W/L record that belies his talent. He is a former near-ace who is on the downturn of his career.

This team is in bad shape. I can’t see them having the pieces to make a deal to get significantly better. And I don’t think they have too many pieces that are going to get better at the major league level.

It’s going to be a long decade.

by MyScreenNameIsKevin on Aug 3, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ugh.
On the contrary, Rolen for Encarnacion seems like a steal for the Reds.

Wrong. The Reds got a nice player, but they overpaid.

Sure, Rolen is 34. But he is still pretty damn productive. Much more so than Encarnacion, who, like so many prospects, never really developed into anything.

I won’t argue with you that Rolen is a productive player, but saying that Edwin is shit is completely off-base. He’s been OPSing .901 since coming off the DL, which was second on the team (behind Votto) in that span. He developed into a strong bat in the middle of the lineup, who doesn’t contribute much defensively. That’s something. That’s not Brandon Larson.

Why anyone would rather have Encarnacion at 3B over Rolen is beyond me.

Have you been reading the reactions on here at all? I don’t think anyone thinks that’s the case.

The other two prospects are just that. Prospects. Anyone remember a prospect for the Reds named Homer Bailey? Prospects are prospects. Most of them are just guys to fill out AAA rosters so these teams have enough minor leaguers to field a team.

This is the most asinine thing I’ve ever read. You are aware that some prospects are more valuable than others, right? And yes, I remember Homer Bailey. He’s still only 23, and is now one of the most solid arms in the Reds rotation. And you seem to have trouble distinguishing between a “prospect” and a “AAA player”. Allow me to enlighten you. Prospects are players that a team spends a high draft pick and a signing bonus on, because they’ve shown potential to be a major league player, as analyzed by the team’s scouting and development department. Zach Stewart was a 3rd round pick. You don’t draft a guy in the 3rd round to use as AAA roster filler. Those are normally free agents and high round prospects who don’t pan out. They play when there isn’t a prospect who needs playing time at a certain position.

As far as Harang rumors, I can’t imagine the Reds would get much for him. Who wants a player who, for two years in a row, has taken three months off in the middle of the year? It’s not like he’s a Cliff Lee type with a decent ERA but a W/L record that belies his talent. He is a former near-ace who is on the downturn of his career.

Aaron Harang may be on the downturn of his career, but he’s still a solid pitcher. Getting injured because he was misused isn’t “taking 3 months off”, which is what happened this year. He hasn’t pitched well for the past month, but it’s not for lack of trying. As Slyde pointed out, his W-L record could be 12-8 right now with better run support and bullpen support, and if that was the case, you wouldn’t be bitching about it.

This team is in bad shape. I can’t see them having the pieces to make a deal to get significantly better. And I don’t think they have too many pieces that are going to get better at the major league level.

True, but part of me thinks this is more Marty-speak. They have lots of young players, who in theory, should be able to get better. Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Bailey, Cueto, and Stubbs should all be improving with major league playing time, but that’s not going to happen without proper coaching. I’m almost to the point where I think Stubbs may be better off in Louisville for now, because at least there he has a decent hitting coach. You’re right about them not being a good team right now, but it’s not because they’re devoid of talent. It’s because the talent they have isn’t being developed.

It’s going to be a long decade.

With rants like this, I can’t disagree.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 3, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That BBPro article is terrible

Simply terrible.

1. Rolen is much, much better than EdE right now. He’s been much, much better throught his career. The only advantage EdE has is age, but right now there is no reason to believe that he’ll ever be any better than he is.

2. While making much of Rolen’s injury history, they neglect both Rolen’s playing time this year EdE’s lack thereof.

3. They completely gloss over the financial details. The Reds will pay Rolen $11M next year and nothing this year (if rumors are true), but would have paid EdE about $5.5M the remainder of this year and next. While not chicken feed, the difference between the players certainly justifies the difference in salary.

4. Roenike is 26 years old, yet only good enough that he had 16 IP for the Reds. I’m not saying the Reds’ talent evaluation has been spot-on, but if he can’t crack this team’s bullpen, he isn’t that good.

5. Clearly, the worst deadline trade was the Cliff Lee – the defending AL Cy Young winner was traded for a bucket of warm spit. In no universe does the Rolen trade approach this.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 3, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

a few points of conjecture

Rolen is better than EdE right now and likely will be next season as well. but i think you are short-changing EdE a bit. he’s no world-beater for sure, but he’s still likely a league average 3B. that is not something to dismiss out of hand.

while Roenicke is old for a prospect, he only started pitching in college. he’s only been throwing a baseball at hitters since he was like 21. so his age is a bit deceptive.

you completely glossed over the loss of Stewart, who for many is the key to the whole deal. i would have applauded a deal that sent EdE and Roenicke for Rolen, but Stewart is at the height of his value as a prospect. he may never turn out to be anything in the future, but his prospect status right now is that of an incredibly valuable top 50-60 pitching prospect.

as for the Lee deal, i think Cleveland did pretty well. Carrasco and Knapp and legit pitching prospects and Donald and Marson could easily turn into league-average performers. while they didnt get the true stud they should have, i think they did ok. and dropping Francisco is not a minor achievement on their part.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jane, you ignorant slut...

I disagree that I’m shortchanging EdE vs. Rolen. With the big caveat of “when healthy” (which he has been this year), Rolen is one of the 3 most valuable 3B in baseball. That’s a long way from EdE “likely a league average 3B”.

While it is true that Roenicke is still raw, I’m of the firm belief that all relievers other than the very best are pretty replaceable, and I don’t see anyone other than the writer of the BPro article calling Roenicke a future closer.

You’re right, I did gloss over Stewart. He’s pitched very well this year, but (1) as a reliever (2) in 49 IP above high-A ball. He has, at times, shown terrible control (almost 6 bb/9 in Louisville this year, the same last year in Sarasota). He could easily turn into a very good pitcher, but I’m not convinced he’ll be there next year.

John Sickles, for one, doesn’t think nearly as much of the players Philly sent to Cleveland; I have no idea. However, the fact that Cleveland gave up Lee and another everyday player and didn’t get any of Philly’s top 3 prospects is pretty damning. As for Francisco, while he’s two years older than EdE, he’s about the same hitter and immensely cheaper – he’ll still be pre-arb next year.

Let me be clear – I don’t love the Rolen trade. I think it moves the roster in the wrong direction (older, more expensive) for where the Reds are on the “bad team-somewhere in the middle-playoff team” continuum. However, in terms of purely a talent swap, I’ve got no problem with it, and anyone calling it “the worst trade of the deadline” is looking for reasons to call it that.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 3, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

hey, i may be ignorant and i may be a slut, but...wait, what was that first thing you called me?

i completely agree with you that solid relievers are pretty easily replaceable. i really dont mind losing Roenicke. he was a pretty decent trade chip and they spent him on good talent. i wont argue with that.

but regarding Stewart, of course he may not pan out. there is still a relatively high level of probability that he turns into a batting tee. his career stats in pro ball are very promising though. it’s only 127 innings, but his K per 9 is 8 and his BB per 9 is only 2.7. his FIP is a glistening 2.80. but regardless of his past or future, his value as a prospect RIGHT NOW is very high. and if you are of the mind to cash in that value right now (whether the Reds should have is a different argument altogether) then you should get comparable value in return. i dont think they did.

i agree that it is a bit of a misnomer to call this deal “the worst” of the deadline (the Peavy deal was so obviously that) but it certainly is the most illogical. this team has no reason to get older and more expensive, especially if they are going to overpay for it, even if they didnt overpay as much as other teams did in their deals. at least the White Sox, Phillies, and Red Sox gave themselves a better chance to win the World Series this year. the Reds just gave themselves a better chance at 5th place. that is dumb as all hell.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roenicke started pitching at the age of 21

He gets a little room on his age, I think. And would you put it past the Reds to overvalue veteran presence in the bullpen compared to a young pitcher with stuff?

Not that I’m overly upset about losing Roenicke, but I think you shortchange him too much.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 3, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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