18 game capsule, take 7

The primary reason I wanted to do this project was so that in the tail end of previous seasons, after the Reds were completely out of contention, I stopped paying attention and lost touch with who was playing well, which call-ups were making a claim for a full-time job next year, or even who was on the roster (Corky Miller?  Really?).  So now, entering the final third of the 2009 season, how are these lovable no-name re-treads holding up?  Honey, keep the Prozac handy…

2009 Reds, Capsule 7

Overview:

Wins/Losses: 8 - 10 (PSA), 55 - 71 (YTD)

Strength of Schedule: .488, YTD (14th most difficult in NL; 28th most difficult in ML) [Prev: .489 YTD SOS, 14th most difficult in NL; 28th most difficult in ML]

RPI (ESPN): .475, YTD (14th best in NL; 27th best in ML)

[Prev: .476 YTD RPI, 14th best in NL; 27th best in ML]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats, YTD): 0.0% [prev: 0.0%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on ELO concept): 0.0% [prev: 0.0%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats + PECOTA projections): 0.0% [prev: 0.0%]

Offense:

• For the period, hitters posted slash rates of .241/.305/.367, compared to league averages of .263/.332/.420.
• The eight players with the most plate appearances for the period (Votto, BP, Janish, Rosales, Nix, Gomes, Wlad, and Stubbs) once again exhibited polar tendencies: three players were quality (Nix and Gomes with OPS's over 1000, and Votto-who even in the midst of a personal slump looks like a golden god compared to his teammates).  The rest of the hitters had PSA OPS's of 631 or below.
• T-Virus missed "regular" status by a mere 3 plate appearances.  Part-time duty also does not sit well with the man: 222/243/250 for the period.
• By this point, we all know the numbers are bad.  However, gentle reader, please do not forget that this team plays in a park which inflates offense!  Fun with the OPS+ metric: Brandon Phillips has an OPS above league-average (752 vs. 742).  But his OPS+ rates out at a 93.  I don't mean to pick on BP-combine that with Gold Glove defense, and you're probably OK with him up the middle.  But did you know the Reds only have two hitters with OPS+ rates north of 100 (Votto and Gomes).  Which, coincidentally, equals the number of hitters with OPS+ rates below 50.  The team OPS+ for the season is 79.
• Drew Stubbs opened his career with fanfare, including a walk-off winner in his first few days on the job.  On the whole, however, it's not been a great start (189/231/324).
• Playing well in limited roles this period: Dickerson and Rolen.
• On the whole, the team has cut down on strikeouts, which was presumably one of their goals.  The team BABIP is considerably below average (.275 vs. .301), which presumably speaks to the shocking lack of power.  Coupled with a below-average walk rate, and you get the perfect storm...

Pitching:

• A nice bounce-back (team PSA ERA of 4.05 vs. league average of 4.31)
• If I told you Arroyo and Harang combined for 52 innings of 1.73 ERA pitching, spread over seven starts, would you have guessed that they also combined for only two wins?
• The other shoe drops on Justin Lehr: 5.47 ERA over 4 starts.
• The impropriety of ERA for relievers, illustrated via Jared Burton: 9.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 BB, 10 K, 0 HR = 4 ER for a 3.87 ERA???  XERA = 0.99 for those stats.
• Worth bringing his name up again: this was vintage Harang to end his season: 21 IP, 19 hits, 7 BB, 17 K, 2 HR.  His title of team ace continues: he was on pace to contest Arroyo for the most IP on the team (pre-appendicitis), he is currently the only of the 5 pitchers with the highest number of starts with an ERA+ above 100, and he's got a 6-14 record.  Criminal.
• Arroyo, of course, has also been dialed in, allowing only 3 walks in 31 IP.
• Nothing would improve the outlook of this team more for 2010 than Homer Bailey putting together a strong final stretch.  This past period was not it (12.2 IP in 3 GS, 5.67 ERA).  Did the Reds break him?
• The defensive quality remains (YTD DER = .700, good for 4th best in the NL, 6th best in the ML).

The next 18:

• 8 games at home, 10 on the road
• 8 of the 18 against divisional opponents
• 7 of the 18 against presumptive 2009 playoff teams
• .517 average winning percentage (2009) for the teams in the next 18 games.
• A double-header!
• I'm going there: the team has 36 games left, and is right now slotted to pick 6th in the 2010 draft.  Given the rotation and lineup that the team is rolling out, a pick as high as 3rd ought to be within reach.  A strong finish only solidifies the misconception that this is a near-contender with quality management.  Let's lose ‘em all.
• That said, results in the W-L columns ultimately mean very little, compared to the potential for player development.  The team only has two healthy every-day players under age 25 (Wladdy and Stubbs).  They have to play every day.  Heisey, Frazier, and Francisco should be up on September 1st-and be given an opportunity to play, as should Wood and del Rosario.  They're part of the select few worth rewarding.