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Red Reposter - 8/25/09

Do you think guys like Justin Lehr and Kip Wells have earned their spots on the team and should get to play out the string, or do you think the Reds need to bring up some of the youngsters to evaluate them for next year?

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Do you think guys like Justin Lehr and Kip Wells have earned their spots on the team and should get to play out the string, or do you think the Reds need to bring up some of the youngsters to evaluate them for next year?

  • Who knew Dusty Baker was such an Existentialist?
    "Dusty Baker sifts through the pile of medical reports on his desk and laughs — laughs out loud and shakes his head..." "People keep wondering about our training methods," Baker said. "We’ve only had one leg injury (Willy Taveras). What does training have to do with concussions (Rolen, Hanigan) and broken wrists (Jay Bruce) and neck discs (Mike Lincoln) and knees needing cleaned up (Ramon Hernandez) and torn labrums (Wilkin Castillo, Danny Richar)? "If we were having a bunch of torn ligaments and torn hamstrings, then maybe you could question things," he said. "But you can’t. It’s just bad luck. And we’ve had a lot of it this year, both medically and in breaks on the field." I agree that injuries have certainly hampered this team this year, but realistically speaking it's only knocked the team down from a 78-win team to a 68-win team. I really hope this "injuries" BS doesnt turn into an excuse to push for next season. Oh, too late...

  • Will Carroll thinks the Reds, with Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez
    all on the shelf, will use September as audition time to evaluate the team's weaknesses. I wish I had his confidence. As we discussed on RRAD last night, we'd like to see pitchers like Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure, and Travis Wood given a chance to strut their stuff at the big league level this September, but "for integrity of the races" I think Dusty is going to run out Justin Lehr and Kip Wells instead.

  • TangoTiger has opened up his Fan Scouting Report
    For those of you unfamiliar with this, he gets a bunch of fans (just like you!) to rate the players they have seen this season on the different aspects of their defensive prowess. He then compiles your surveys and averages out the numbers to get a read on a player's true defensive talents. It is one of the best tools out there for getting a feel for a player's defensive contributions, just as accurate as those new-fangled supercomputer advanced metrics. The thing is, you need a lot of fans (just like you!) to provide their input. The more the better. Being the dedicated Reds fans I know you are, you are exactly the kind of fan whose informed opinions matter the most. So head on over and do your duty.

  • Eli over at Daily Dish provides with this video of Buck Showalter's plan for realignment
    We had a discussion about realignment about a month ago (find it here), but I'm not sure anyone's was as hair-brained as Buck's.

  • Dave at OMGReds went to the Bats-Mud Hens game on Sunday night
    and witnessed Todd Frazier's first AAA home run. He says it was absolutely crushed, and wonders how far it traveled. He was also impressed with Juan Francisco, whose pet chupacabra reportedly attacked one of the ballpark vendors.

  • John Sickels has been reviewing his Top 20 Prospect Lists from this past offseason
    He blurbs about how the top 20 have done so far this year, and has this to say in recap: "I think the Reds have a pretty decent farm system. There have been some disappointments, and I'm not sure yet how they are going to fit Alonso and Frazier into the lineup in the medium and long runs, but they have material to work with. They could use additional arms, and the 2009 draft took some good steps in that direction with Mike Leake, Brad Boxberger, and Donnie Joseph all capable of advancing quickly. They seem to like the toolsy Latin hitters with power potential but poor strike zone judgment."

  • Steve at RLN recaps the ten best trades in Reds history
    No surprise, #1 is Joe Morgan. Every time I hear his name nowadays I get really down, because I wish I could have seen him play. At this point, I dont know if I could recognize good baseball if it slapped me the face.

  • Eric Davis thinks today's draft picks have an inflated sense of entitlement
    "It’s unfortunate that kids are demanding major league contracts, that (they) have to be in the big leagues at a certain time," he said. "What ever happened to your performance dictating that? There’s no sense of motivation, determination. That’s why you have a lot of guys who come to the big leagues who aren’t ready or can’t play."

  • Tyler Hissey at Dugout Central worries that Bob Castellini is turning into another George Steinbrenner, sans the cash
    "Castellini says he has a plan. To an objective onlooker, though, it does not appear to be a sound one, and, from Cordero to now Rolen, he does not deserve any benefit of the doubt. The owner needs to trust his baseball operations staff to make the decisions, because he appears to be as involved as George Steinbrenner. Except his wallet does not run as deep."

  • Mike Leake will play in the Arizona Fall League this year
    alongside a number of this year's top draft picks. Hopefully we'll also see guys like Yonder Alonso, Brad Boxberger, and the recovering Jay Bruce get some time out there too.

  • Ken Rosenthal says Alex Gonzalez had to approve the trade that sent him to the Red Sox (LOLZWTF!!)
    apparently he had a 3-team no-trade clause (was anyone aware of this?) and the Red Sox were one of them.

0 recs  |  Comment 55 comments

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Well, Dusty....

…..maybe we should just bleed them. I’m sure that would do the trick. I mean, hey, it worked for George Washington, but I guess we don’t want to count that since it would mean quantifying something. God, please, tell me this man will not be managing my team in 2010.

by tonywf on Aug 25, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

We used to blame demonic possession.

But now we know it’s due to a dwarf or small toad living in their stomachs.

Phone's ringing, Dude.

by rjdio on Aug 25, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Just got back from vacation

and I was on the flight with Leake and Boxburger to an Atlanta connection. I recognized them and they seemed shocked. “Hey, you guys our first rounders?” They, a bit taken aback, “Yeah.” Me: “They sending you to Sarasota?” They: “Yeah.” Me: “Kick Mesaraco in the ass for me will you.” They, smiling: “Uh, sure.” Me: “Good luck.” They: “Thanks.”
       They are not big guys at all, and they look like babies. I must be getting older and taller.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Aug 25, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great

You’ve probably just ruined them.

Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.

by SullivanSmith on Aug 25, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A question that I asked on Twitter

How many fewer wins do you think the Reds have this year because of injuries? I don’t know the answer, just wondering what fans think.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

2

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Aug 25, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This Is a Great Question

It’s not like they had the depth to contend from the get-go, and fans were counting on too many Ifs, Ands and Buts all along, but by the time the season is done they will have more than 500 player games lost to injuries. That staggering number cannot be summarily dismissed—especially with Voltron.

I’ll say 13 wins lost due to injuries.

by Mr. Redlegs on Aug 25, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

we lost harang for 5 weeks
Cueto for the second half (if it is fair to say he has been pitching hurt)
Only saw Volquez 9 or 10 times
Votto missed a lot of time
Dickerson missed time
Micah Owings created a situation that allowed Justin Lehr to see the big leagues
Bronson Arroyo will be the only starting pitcher to make it through the season.

I think the injuries to the pitching staff devastated this team.

Bloop

by justin007000 on Aug 25, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we also missed two weeks of phillips, and he's played much of the season with a broken finger

and dont forget bruce out for the season, or edwin missing much of the first half before being traded, plus gonzalez missing the first half before being traded, plus hernandez missing what seems like the whole season…

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Aug 25, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I admire BP for playing through the injury, but he's pretty much right on his pre-season projections

Of the injuries listed, I think the only ones that have made this team seriously underperformed to this point are Votto, Volquez, and Edwin. Everyone else has been replaced by a reasonable facsimiles, if not better performances.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

My rough injury toll would be something like six wins. Bruce was the only other “good” player to lose a lot of time, and if you consider Gomes his caddy there hasn’t been a significant dropoff.

by ken on Aug 25, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RF not named Bruce are hitting 0.321/.411/.533 for the Reds this year

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sure, I don't mean to imply that the team is better off without Bruce

my point is that the performance in lieu of Bruce isn’t why this team is so bad this year.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

I’d say even without Bruce there hasn’t been a significant dropoff.

by ken on Aug 25, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's your answer

If you believe fangraph’s assessment of wins above replacement, and some fuzzy carsalesman math, here’s what I came up with. I used the following assumptions:

All of the position players would have been full-time, except for the LFs; I didn’t figure them in, because it seems obvious to me that some combination of Nix/Gomes/Dickerson would have had most/all the PAs in LF, which they did. For the other 7 positions, I used the percentage of their innings played in the field at their positon to calculate the “missed” RAR. Then, I figured in the numbers for the primary replacements (Rosales, Hariston, Hanigan, Janish). I did not include Rolen, simply because he’s played so little for the Reds.

The ugly truth? Injuries haven’t hurt the offense/fielding of this team. Unless I’m way off base in how I figured it (and I could be), injuries cost the team 7.39 runs (thanks largely to the suckitude of EdE and AGon not being around); however, the non-Hanigan replacements actually added 6 runs.

Then things get real fuzzy. Hanigan is much, much better than Hernandez this year – +9.3 runs (even in his limited playing time) compared to +2.8; in addition, almost 2/3 of Hernandez’s playing time was at 1B.

So injuries significantly helped the Reds at 3 positions (CF, SS (Janish is +3.3 RAR on the season – yea defense!), C), didn’t hurt as much as you’d think (Rosales’s -4.7 at 3B looks alot like the -4.1 EdE would have had in additional playing time), and the the missed time by Votto, BP, and Bruce didn’t make up for the difference.

Considering that 10 RAR = 1 win, and it doesn’t look like the Reds lost a thing outside of pitching, the answer to your question is “as many wins wins as Cueto, Volquez, and Harang could have given them over Lehr, Bailey, and Maloney over the 20 starts they missed”. That’s right – while it seems like alot more, the Reds have only missed 20 starts by their projected top 5 this year.

So the final answer likely is: only 2 or 3, and all because of the pitchers.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 25, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

So,

my smart-assed comment lines up with the math. Nice.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Aug 25, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

one thing

you assume that the injury didn’t affect EdE when he was actually playing – he sucked enormously that first month, during which I believe he was actually hurt though apparently not enough for the DL. I suppose the same could be said for Gonzalez. Perhaps you should compare them to their projections rather than extrapolating their sucky play out over the missing time.

Either way, I doubt we’ll find a formula that makes these injuries cost more than 10 wins

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

im guessing this all started with my comment that the injuries have taken the team from a 78-win team to a 68-win team

im glad it started such an engrossing conversation, but i was really just trying to point out that the team is still bad, injuries or not. the number “10” was just pulled out at random. so dont take me for a yutz, please.

well, at least not for this comment, anyway.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 25, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really don't know the answer

my point was only to say that I doubt we’ll find a number that means anymore than the injuries just made a bad team worse. The injuries are the cause of this team being historically bad, but they were gonna be bad anyway.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh.

I don’t think using the projections are really appropriate, as individuals will vary greatly from their projections. Comparing to ZiPS, Bruce is as far away from his projection as EdE, yet no one would say it’s because of injury. Taveras doesn’t compare to his projection, either.On the o ther hand, Votto was projected to have just a 19% chance to have the season he’s had Finally, the defense provided by Hanigan, Dickerson, and Janish are much better than projected*, while the defense provided by Taveras, AGon, Hernandez and EdE are much worse.

*If you believe both the fangraphs defensive ratings and the ZiPS vg/av/fr/pr continuum.

As for Charlie’s paranoia, it was your (Slyde’s) original post that I was responding to, not his “10 wins” comment. And I think roster mismanagement has had a much bigger impact on the record than injuries – imagine if Taveras and AGon, after they showed so clearly they were crap, had been benched.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 25, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

do teams cover up arm injuries?

This year both Volquez and Cueto had a different injury before having an arm injury. Volquez had a stiff back, and Cueto had a sore hip flexer, does the organization just cover up the real injury?

I am looking at Jake Westbrook, and he had a “Rib injury”, before he had TJ last year. I can’t think of any other examples at the moment, but I feel like there are more than these three.

Bloop

by justin007000 on Aug 25, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This may be trolling

but I laughed anyway

Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.

by SullivanSmith on Aug 25, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

so are you telling me that Dusty Baker reads graphic novels?

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Aug 25, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

also, re: Sickels list

-I don’t get “Lotzkar of the Hill People”. Anyone do?
-He calls Dickerson a solid 4th outfielder. I really hope to see Dickerson on minorleagueball sometime soon.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

by Cy Schourek on Aug 25, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Better yet

watch it.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fan scouting report

Just to get this off my chest—I see a lot of people use the fan scouting report as a test of the validity of the advanced metrics. I don’t think this is quite kosher. The fans who vote on tango’s site are very much aware of player’s UZRs and this informs their voting.

by Red Menace on Aug 25, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree

it’s always felt like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lineup from the Fay

Drew Stubbs cf
Paul Janish ss
Joey Votto 1b
Brandon Phillips 2b
Scott Rolen 3b
Laynce Nix rf
Jonny Gomes lf
Corky Miller c
Bronson Arroyo p

He also says Owings will likely pitch in Harang’s spot. No word on who’s pitching in Owings’ spot.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Look, I like the guy

But holy shit Dusty, what possible reason could you have for batting Janish second?! I’m not sure why I haven’t become inured to the idiocy of creating batting orders by position, but every day it smacks me like a dick in the face. Fuck you, Dusty. Begone.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 25, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my guess

It’s his reward for going 2 for 4 with a double and a walk in the last game.

If he goes 0 for 4 tonight, he’ll be back batting 8th.

Dusty has put Janish at the bottom of the order, so it’s not just that he’s playing SS.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

who else should it be?

im not arguing with you. i mean, you know im just as fed up. but is Rolen gonna hit 2nd? Gomes? Nix?

yeah, it should be Rolen. that’s a pretty easy one.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 25, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rolen

usually bats 5th. If that’s where he’s comfortable, let him stay there.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd put Nix there right now

at least he gets on base more than 30% of the time and his power is not so good that he should be in an RBI position. Plus, he’s hitting the ball really well right now.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 25, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

back to back lefties?

Madness!

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd put Nix's butt on the bench and put Wlad in the 2 spot

He sees a bunch of pitches and walks a fair bit.

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Aug 25, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, I'd like to see more of Wlad, too

Why trade for him if you’re not going to use him?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

With this team completely out of it

It sure would be nice to see Balentien in there to determine his value going forward. Eh, but what the hell do I know, I never played with Hank Aaron.

29 more losses to 100. Being a Reds fan should be justification for medical marijuana.

by RedsMasochist on Aug 25, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting:

Leake isn’t officially in, but look who is playing in the AFL this fall

That indicates to me that they are thinking about Cozart for the big club for next year, same with Heisey.

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Aug 25, 2009 5:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

you don't think he'd be going anyway?

Teams usually send their top US players from the AA and AAA levels, don’t they?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Frazier isn't going

Neither is Francisco, Klinker, Wood, etc.

Usually it’s reserved for guys who need more ABs because of injuries (Alonso) or new prospects who just signed (Strasburg will be there)

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Aug 25, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm kinda surprised Frazier isn't there.

But I’d expect Francisco to play in the Dominican Winter League. I’d like to think Klinker and Wood aren’t going so the Reds can keep their innings in check, but it could be completely unrelated.

by Geki on Aug 25, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you on all of those points

Didn’t Frazier play there last year though? And there’s always a chance that he could be going down to the Dominican, Mexico, or Venezuela as well.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 25, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Juan Francisco

is not eligible. AFL is supposed to be for US players. Each team can send one foreign player, but only if his home country doesn’t have winterball.

I thought it was for the best prospects. It’s an honor to be invited. There’s a limit on how many players and how many from each level a team can send, so that might have something to do with it. Somehow, a team has to be cobbled together from the players sent by several teams.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From the Washington Post...

Little Leaguers growing up way too fast

It’s frightening how easily they pick up the mannerisms of their counterparts in the bigs. After every swing they slide the bat down and grip it manfully by the fat end, and stalk out of the batter’s box. They adjust their batting helmet with one gloved hand, and adjust their lower region with the other. Watching them, you get the same creepy feeling you do watching little girls in beauty pageants, wearing hair spray and wiggling their hips as they belt out Broadway tunes.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 25, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Christina Karhl is always out to get me!

Her and her stupid math


You might think that things are better in that they’ve found a convenient reason to move Taveras aside and take an extended look at their center fielder of the future (with the ‘when’ being less obvious, what with contracts and bad taste in free agents not gunking up the issue). The question is whether Stubbs is going to be that good, since he offers a number of the same virtues Taveras does notionally: he too is a plus defender in center, and he too runs well (swiping 46 bags in 54 attempts for Louisville). However, he’s also not much in the power department (his Triple-A ISO was .092). While he walks, let’s not mistake him for Rickey Henderson; drawing free passes in 10.8 percent of his PA for the Bats is merely the starting point for where you might say good things for a guy with no power, and is not the acme of all possible compliments. A guy hitting a translated .245/.333/.354 in his age-24 season winds up with an unsurprisingly uninspiring .258 peak translated EqA. That looks good compared to Willy Taveras, yes, but it’s still well shy of good.

So, by her estimation, the Reds go from an F- in Patterson to a D- in Taveras to a C- in Stubbs (let’s face it, that’s what Walt meant when he said he has stuff to work on….if you can’t hit for power, no one will walk you, since no one’s afraid of a Juan Pierre single). I hope the Heisey/Frazier group is better.

By the way, this is not to say Stubbs shouldn’t be playing. He should. I just hope she’s wrong and he can turn that Trip A OBP into an MLB OBP

by timb116 on Aug 25, 2009 8:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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