does Cozart project out to be Janish?

Cozart is the Reds future at SS, not Valaika. Dude at, http://redsminorleagues.com/depth-chart/ , has Cozart ahead of all other Reds minor league shortstops with his stock rising. I also heard him on Lance’s show one day saying in his opinion, Cozart has raised his stock to be in the top 3 or 5 prospects that the Reds have.

The Reds development people believe Cozart can be in the big leagues by September next season and he’s progressing at a clip they are very comfortable. But yeah, they think he’s the future shortstop.

Reds would be better off with a JJ Hardy or moving BP than fucking around with Jannish and cozart.

What on earth are the Yanks going to do with 35-year-old Derek Jeter?

If he was up by September 2010, that would leave plenty of defensive value for the big club and maybe he could contribute with his bat as well. If he’d only be a slight upgrade over Janish you might as well let him develop rather than risk stunting his offensive potential.

Regarding SS or LF, I think between Wlad, Gomes, and C-Dick we have a pretty good chance of fielding a league average LF than we do with our current SS pool. I’d make every effort to get Hardy or Escobar, whichever is made available. Barring that Id move BP to short and call up Frazier at 2B. He seems likely able to contribute right away.

with a Gomes LF, Dickerson CF, and Bruce RF outfield at least through the rest of the season (assuming Jay makes it back soon). I think we need to get rid of Nix and Taveras (if at all possible without eating too much salary). I think it is smart to try and trade one of Stubbs or Dickerson eventually for a SS and sign a starting pitcher in the offseason.

I think its imperative we try and go after JJ Hardy. He is fairly young, a former all star who still has huge upside, and he fits a huge need for this club. Bill Hall would be a nice get for cheap and could spell Rolen at third. A SP in the offseason is a big need as well, esp with Voltran on the DL for the better part if not all of next season. One interesting trade proposal I’ve heard is BP for Yunel escobar and bring up Frazier to play 2B.

Slyde, Zack uses a K in his name. I also think you are underrating him. Offensively he projects to be an average MLB shortstop to slightly above average. Defensively he is above average. He has shown outstanding plate discipline this year and skipped over High A and really didn’t miss much of a beat.

Walt Jocketty said a few weeks ago that they would like to move him up to see what they had before next year. Since it hasn’t happened yet I get the feeling its not going to this season. I think thats a pretty bad plan. The Reds need to know if he can be an option in 2010 before they go to free agency for a shortstop and either over pay, or get someone who is just going to suck because they only want to give him a 1 year deal because of Cozart and no one worth anything is taking a 1 year deal.

a bit of a better bat and much better on base skills. I’d take that. Bring him up this season might be rushing him a bit, but then again I’m sometimes overly cautious with prospects.

But el niño destructor was promoted to AAA while Frazier (and Cozart) are stuck in AA. I won’t repeat Doug’s concerns, which I agree with. Ill add though that I think it sends a bad message when a guy with bad defense who rarely walks, strikes out a bunch and is only 22 gets promoted over guys who have great plate approaches and play good defense.

The only way this makes sense is if he’s being showcased for a trade (for Hardy maybe?)

a shortstop that we would feel comfortable with batting second…

cause you know thats where dusty will put him…

The Reds have signed their top two picks. That would Mike Leake and Bradley Boxberger. No idea on the money because it is behind the ESPN pay wall. http://ow.ly/kaxY

Tango did a study last year on defensive ageing that’s worth a read. His methodology is, I think, more precise than Zimmerman’s. Tango’s “matched pairs” compares a player’s out conversion rate (outs per balls in play) on a year-to-year basis when he played at the same position, in the same park, with the same pitcher on the mound, and the same batter-handedness at the plate. Zimmerman just looks at UZR year-to-year, which adds subjective factors inherent in any defensive rating formula.

Tango concludes (after regressing his findings) that a shortstop’s defensive peak is between 24 and 28. The regression is significant because of the selection bias that also affects Zimmerman’s study:

The only shortstops who survive the study are those good enough (or thought to have been good enough) to play in back-to-back years. And a player who performs above the population average is likely a player who benefited from good fortune. Consider that the league-average out rate is around 12.5%, but, for every matched pair under observation, the out rate for shortstops in the first of the two years is at least 13.0%. In essence, that 13.0% contains a tinge of luck. And that luck needs to be extracted.

Before regression, Tango’s data suggests that the defensive peak is between 22 and 24, which doesn’t sound right.

I agree with some others about going with Janish, at least in early 2010. I’d rather make sure Cozart is ready to hit major league pitching by keeping him down a few months in Louisville rather than screw up his development in an attempt to save a few defensive runs.