Does Small Ball Make Sense When Your Team Can't Get Hits?
We criticize Dusty Baker around here a lot for his love the 1970's Dodger Way of playing baseball, and I believe it is well within our rights to do so. But I was wondering this afternoon if maybe Baker doesn't have much of a choice. Maybe small ball truly is the only way this team can score runs.
For instance, it's hard to score a lot when your team is last in the league in hits and base runners, and second to last in doubles, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. Maybe the Reds have no choice but to try to manufacture runs since they sure as hell can't do it the easier way.
Then again, manufacturing runs isn't exactly getting them anywhere either. The team is second to last in the Majors in runs scored per game at 3.96, a pace that will give them the lowest team run total for an entire season since 1989, when 3.96 R/G was just over league average. This is despite (or because?) of the fact they are first in the majors in sacrifice bunt attempts and successes. They are also 5th in the Majors in productive out rate, a category led by the highest scoring team in the majors, the Los Angelheim Angels. The Reds also do an excellent job of avoiding double plays, bunting for base hits, and they are right at the league average for base runners taking the extra base on a hit. While they don't attempt stolen bases as often as we thought they would, their 71% success rate is at least acceptable for a team. I guess what I'm saying is that they aren't exactly making major mistakes with their attempts at small ball.
What we have is a bit of a chicken and the egg problem here. Are the Reds bad offensively because they are so committed to small ball, or are they committed to small ball because they are so bad offensively. Realistically, outside of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and maybe Jonny Gomes, do you think any of these guys are qualified to be driving in runs?
Is small ball the wrong reaction to this situation? I don't know. It's hard to say if playing "straight up" would make much of a difference for this team. They really don't have any sluggers - Jay Bruce still leads the team in home runs despite having been out for nearly a month. I still maintain that the biggest issue for this team is lack of opportunities. The Angels are scoring lots of runs despite only hitting 20 more HR than the Reds mainly because they do an excellent job of getting on base. They still make many of the same questionable small ball moves that the Reds make, but the wasting of outs doesn't hurt them as much because they have guys getting on base when they aren't trying to make outs. You really can't say the same for the Reds.
What do you think? Are the Reds just making matters worse by turning to small ball or do they even have a choice? Would it make any difference if they stopped?
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Where does he get those wonderful stats?
/joker’d
Seriously though, where can you find stuff like team ranking in productive outs and taking extra bases on hits?
Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry
by nycredsfan on Aug 13, 2009 3:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
thanks
I always feel like I’m in the NY public library whenever I go to baseballreference. There’s tons of information there and I have no idea how the hell to find it.
Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry
by nycredsfan on Aug 13, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i guess that was supposed to be NY Public, but it was definitely shot at Columbia
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Aug 13, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
well, it was an art film. what do you expect?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 13, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
cookies
i always expect cookies
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Aug 14, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it's a matter of when small ball is being used.
For instance, is Scioscia using the technique moreso later in games or in close games? Have the Angels played in more ‘close’ games than the Reds?
I think it all depends on when the tactic is implemented.
What I mean by this, is that I highly doubt that if the Angels’ leadoff hitter opened the game with a double, that Scioscia would then have his two-hole batter BUNT THAT GUY TO THIRD!
Yes, the Reds are making ‘productive outs’ but many of them come at idiotic or innapropriate times.
The fact that Cincinnati leads the majors in sacrifice bunts tells me that the Reds are bunting too often, or in scenarios that don’t necessarily warrant a sac attempt.
The Angels are scoring lots of runs despite only hitting 20 more HR than the Reds mainly because they do an excellent job of getting on base.
I also bet, that when they get runners on base (especially with no outs), they don’t try to bunt that often.
The home ball parks might have something to do with this as well. The Angels play on a rather large field with lots of room in the gaps. I would think their line drive rate is probably better than the Reds’ as well.
I guess what I’m saying is, small ball is good if you use it at the right times. Just doing it for the sake of fucking doing it is stupid. And it seems (I have no statistical data to back me up here) that the Reds do it at the wrong times and way too often.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Aug 13, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions
The problem is at the top of the lineup
When you have 2 guys with OBP below .300 settin the table, there is no one to drive in.
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
Except, of course, there's no one on this team not named Votto, Gomes, or Phillips
who does have a good OBP (except Dickerson and he generally bats first or second). Even though Dusty offense me by batting Taveras lead-off, it’s like this team is over-flowing with lead-off men.
Rosales — no
Hanigan — no
Nix — no
Balentin — no
etc, etc, etc
My personal dislike for "smallball"
makes me biased against an informed opinion. But, I do believe that a team that rarely gets on base cannot afford to constantly give away outs and frequently play for only one run.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Aug 13, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Dusty's not playing small ball.
you’ve been WATCHING Willy’s long-ball game.
mebbe if he ’roided up he could blast it past second base.
OT
but here’s a pic of Joe Everycubsfan, the guy who dumped his beer on Shane Victorino. word is that Mayor Daly is going to give him a medal of honor for exhibiting such civic spirit. they are planning a parade for him and everything. Cubs fans love this kind of stuff.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 13, 2009 4:34 PM EDT reply actions
gotta have a parade for something
the team on the North sure ain’t gonna do it for ’em.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I was going to ask if anyone had seen that...maybe it was discussed elsewhere and I missed it
How are we not supposed to hate Cubs fans when they keep doing stupid childish shit like this?
Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry
I have to say
I love the photo of Victorino being showered with beer. Not that I approve of assault or anything. It’s just a neat photo.
And then stadium security nabbed the wrong guy, and kicked him out.
The true culprit has turned himself in.
I wonder if the Cubs will have the decency to give the guy they falsely ejected a free ticket.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Successful small ball depends on people getting base, getting moved over and driven home:
(Red are)‘last in the league in hits and base runners, and second to last in doubles, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. The team is second to last in the Majors in runs scored per game at 3.96 despite (or because?) of the fact they are first in the majors in sacrifice bunt attempts and successes.also 5th in the Majors in productive out rate, a category led by the highest scoring team in the majors," (Slyde’s comments)
Although they try really hard, small ball will only be successful when a team has runners in scoring position with only one out. The first batter in an inning has to get on through a walk or a single, be moved over by a productive out or a steal and then somebody has to actually get a hit to drive the run in. (unless the original batter has doubled and been moved to third, or has gotten to 3B with only one out. Of course you can play small ball with two runners on and no outs if the situation calls for it.
I really don’t blame Dusty for trying to utilise small ball, its just that when you don’t have the best OBP guys in (especially) the top of the lineup, then you are set up to fail.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
No.
No no no no no.
I don’t care how bad the team is. Given the run environment, giving away outs is a bad, bad way to play baseball. They’re 10-46 when scoring 3 or fewer runs, and 21-50 when scoring 4 or fewer.
And you only have to do the math to see the real story – the Reds are 28-14 when scoring 5+ runs; hell, they’re 39-18 when scoring 4+. Why in the world would they play to only score 2 or 3?
While looking some things up, Dusty’s first year in LA was ’76. The BRM was quite the outlier that year.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
You mean, the Big Red Machine that set the all time record for most runners left on base in a season?
Those guys sucked.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Especially Pete and Ken G. Sr.
Pete was slow and didn’t steal much
Grif was not a masterbunter.
Its lucky those guys won at all.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Small ball only if.....................................
No, the Reds don’t have Dunn, Pujols or any other guy cabable of driving in over 100 runs on an annual basis. I don’t think Jay Bruce would even make much difference. The Reds have never had a guy outside of 1st base that ever really gets on very much. We seem to be, over the years, content on taking guys who hit .250 and trying to make them .300 hitters. I’ve never understood that. Taveras, Dickerson, Hairston, etc…are not the answer. The reason the Angels do well is because they have a guy like Figgins at the top of the order. He’s a free agent after this season. If I were a GM, ahem, Walt Jocketty, I’d go after Figgins with everything I got. Put him in left field and be done with it. We still need a center field that bats right handed, but that’s up to the Reds. They can actually hit homeruns quite well with Phillips, Votto, Bruce and Rolen. If you can find one more right handed bat, and no Gomes is not the answer despite hitting 3 hr last night. We need our own Matt Holliday or something similar.

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