18 game capsule, take 6

On July 28, shortly removed from a difficult road trip, the Reds dropped a 3-2 result to the lowly Padres.  The loss knocked the Reds to 8 games back of the Cardinals, and officially kicked off Buckeye season.  Knowing that no one was paying further attention, the team then lost seven more in a row.  Meanwhile, GM Walt Jocketty awoke from a three month nap, mistakenly thought he was leading a team in a golf league where low scores are good, and made his move for the stretch move.  The following stats are through Friday’s games.

2009 Reds, Capsule 6

Overview:

Wins/Losses: 4 - 14 (PSA), 47-61 (YTD)

Strength of Schedule: .489, YTD (14th most difficult in NL; 28th most difficult in ML) [Prev: .487 YTD SOS, 16th most difficult in NL; 30th most difficult in ML]

RPI (ESPN): .476, YTD (14th best in NL; 27th best in ML)

[Prev: .484 YTD RPI, 13th best in NL; 25th best in ML]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats, YTD): 0.0% [prev: 2.2%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on ELO concept): 0.0% [prev: 2.8%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats + PECOTA projections): 0.0% [prev: 2.2%]

Offense:

• Hitters performed at rates of .200/.266/.350 for the period, compared to league averages of .266/.335/.432.
• The eight "regulars" with the most plate appearances this period were Hanigan, Votto, BP, Gonzo, Eddie, Nix, Willy, and Gomes.  Four of them had PSA OPS levels below .502 (the usual two, plus Hanigan and Nix).
• T-Virus watch: 62 plate appearances in the period, one extra base hit, one walk.  However, his .203 batting average for the 18-game stretch was better than the rest of the team.
• Joey Votto finally played some team-ball and hit his first sacrifice fly of the season.  Votto turned in his worst period of the season (.262/.319/.538), but was still the best hitter on the team over the stretch.
• Newcomer Wladimir Balentien has taken a "get on base" approach to his craft, reaching base seven times in his first 17 plate appearances.  Indoctrination typically takes some time.
• An interesting line for the period from Jonny Gomes: 53 AB, 10 hits, 6 HR, 3 BB, 20 K.  Adam Dunn says "Kudos, sir."
• Playing amateur statistician here...if we take the six distinct 18 game periods, and line up the RC/G for each period with the corresponding "HAVOC rate" (SB + CS) / (1B + BB), there is a correlation of -0.49.  Correlation is not causation, of course.  I would guess as the Reds grow more hacktastic, the desperation on the basepaths grows.  In this last period, the most pathetic offensively to date, the Reds attempted steals on a staggering 14.4% of "opportunities".  Incidentally, the Reds have been successful on steal attempts at a rate slightly worse than league average.

Pitching:

• It gets worse.  The team ERA for the period was over a run worse than league average (5.47 vs. 4.32).
• Home runs were a significant problem for the team in this latest stretch, giving up 1.8 HR / 9 IP, against a league average of 1.1 HR / 9 IP.  Four of the starting pitchers (Harang, Cueto, Owings, and Bailey) allowed taters at a rate of 2.0 HR / 9 IP of higher.
• One pitcher who did shine was Justin Lehr, who threw a complete game shutout en route to a 1.93 ERA in his first 14 innings on the year.  Unfortunately, impending doom is impending: 7 walks and 4 strikeouts in that span, and a BABIP of .178.
• The starting rotation had been viewed as the strength of the team coming into the season.  At this point in the season, the four full-time starters have ERAs of 4.23, 4.52, 5.10, and 5.35.  The league average is 4.22.
• As a composite staff, the numbers are all generally about average, with the primary exception of HR allowance (at a rate about 25% higher than league average).  The park presumably makes up for some of that, but only some.
• The defense is regressing ever so slightly (YTD DER now at .700, compared to .701 at last glance), but this is still an upper echelon defense (4th in the NL, 6th best overall).

The next 18:

• 7 games at home, 11 on the road
• 9 of the 18 against divisional opponents
• 8 of the 18 against presumptive 2009 playoff teams
• .471 average winning percentage (2009) for the teams in the next 18 games.

The Trade: Rolen for Encarnacion, Roenicke, and Stewart.  Ignoring the two pitchers (and the concussion) for a minute, was this an acceptable deal?  I tried to look at this through a semi-old school way, using Bill James's old career projection model known as Brock2.  There are better projection tools available now, and any proper analysis should take salary and defense into account, but I like Brock2 because it allows a broad view of a player's career arc.  Things to consider: at the time of the trade, Scott Rolen was on pace for his highest ever batting average and to tie his career high in doubles.  On the flip side, his walk rate is at an all-time low, and his HR rate is very nearly at a career low, continuing a recent trend.  Rolen will be 35 next year, and Brock2 sees Rolen's 2009 performance as a last hurrah of sorts.  Projections for 2010: .260/.324/.394.  To speed this along, Eddie's 2010 projection is incredibly rosy: .282/.375/.541, primarily driven by two factors: a) hitting the peak age of 27; and b) dramatically improving his walk rate this year.  While there are many factors at play with EE's 2009 numbers, and I take these projections with a grain of salt, Encarnacion is vastly more likely to post better numbers in 2010.  And he costs less.  And Roenicke was a very serviceable bullpen arm.  And Stewart has torn through the minors.  Not good.