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Around SBN: Despite Relocation Drama, Coyotes Overcome Adversity

Red Reposter - 8/10/09

  • Aaron Harang got his first victory since May yesterday
    "Boy, it’s been a long time for Aaron. It feels great for him," Baker said. "Sometimes when you don’t have a victory for a long time, you wonder, ‘Am I every going to win again?’ " Harang's last win came on May 25 against Houston, and I traded for him in my fantasy league on May 26.

  • RedReporter heartthrob Joey Votto has been mired in a 0-14 slump
    striking out 7 times in that span. "He's missing pitches he normally puts into play," Baker said. "It happens to everybody. I don't care who you are; you're going to go some period of time [like this]." Luckily, Brandon Phillips has picked up the slack while Votto is taking his nap, going 4-12 in his last 14 PAs with 2 2B, a homer, and 2 walks, striking out only once.

  • The Fay thinks the Reds need to consider trading Aaron Harang now
    His past two starts have been great, and it should have quelled most of the anxiety over whether he's lost it or not. I dont agree with his logic though. He says, "I like Harang. I think he can be good again. But I think the Reds have to consider moving him if they can. He'll make $12.5 million next year and has a $2 million buyout for 2011. This team plenty of holes to fills. With $14.5 million more in the 2010 budget, you can do a lot more on the free agent market."

    I agree the team has a lot of holes, but the $$ you would save if you moved Harang likely would not go as far as you would want it to. We're all familiar with the FA market this off-season, and there arent many desirable names out there in the OF and at SS, unless Johnny Damon and Orlando Cabrera get your blood going. And if you move Harang, you'll have to fill a rotation spot as well. And let's not forget the spot opened up by Edinson Volquez's injury. I think even for the money we are paying him, which is admittedly considerable, Harang is probably the most economical use of that money.  Unless some team offers a legit prospect who is ready for the majors, I think we need to keep him.

  • In case you hadnt heard
    Scott Rolen does have a concussion. The way this team has mishandled injuries to its most important players this year (Votto, Volquez, and now Rolen, not to mention Gonzo and Taveras) has been unspeakably ridiculous. Why cant they get these things right the first time? Maybe it's just a streak of bad luck on the diagnostic front and we are just rattling our sabrs with confirmation bias, but man it's frustrating. Just put him on the DL already.

  • I cant remember if we discussed this or not
    but I'll put it here anyway. Juan Francisco, the Child Destroyer, made the Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet on Friday. Here's what they said about him:

    Usually, Double-A is the level where a power hitter with a free-swinging tendency finds his old approach no longer works. Just ask Greg Halman. But Francisco has managed to hold his own in the Southern League, despite his tendency to start swing at pitches when he's standing in the on-deck circle. He leads the league with 22 home runs and is hitting .341/.386/.659 since the all-star break. Francisco has walked only 19 times in 408 at-bats (4.5 percent of plate appearances), but that's actually the best walk rate of his career, and he's cut his strikeout rate as well. He's very unlikely to stick at third base long-term thanks to his size and a newfound problem with errors (his 35 this year gives him an ugly .863 fielding percentage), but his raw power is as impressive as anyone in the minors not named Mike Stanton.

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the only way i trade harang

is if the Reds can get a young pitcher ready to step up into the big league rotation back for him. Let us send him to Toronto!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Bloop

by justin007000 on Aug 10, 2009 11:21 AM EDT reply actions  

since next year will inevitably be a a rebuilding year...

why not trade harang?

also, that Balentien deal has been nice so far. hopefully he keeps it up.

by GrooveLeg on Aug 10, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions  

So was 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and.....wait for it....

…..2009

First time I shot her, I shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Aug 10, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

See, I don't think the Reds see next year as an "inevitable rebuilding year."

(h/t Rolen trade).

As such, Charlie’s analysis is on point for me. The Reds cannot move Harang and hope to compete next year. Personally, I am intrigued they want to try, but I wonder about the thinking. I happen to think the core of the team is in it’s prime and ready to go for 2010, but I don’t see how they can bring in the complimentary pieces to next year’s club, given the dearth of free agent talent and the restraints of the budget.

So, my only hope is Coco goes lights out until the off-season and Oscar Minyana panics about JJ Putz and the rest of his pen and takes on Cordero. There’s salary relief and a largely insubstantial loss for the Reds pen (Coco would waive that no-trade clause to go to the Big Apple, right?)

by timb116 on Aug 10, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions  

That's not a bad idea about CoCo to the Mets, only because Minaya is such a bad GM

Problem is, the Mets owe K-Rod about the same amount as CoCo (love these closer nicknames) over the next two years.

It’s hard to justify paying two relievers a total of 24 mil a year.

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Aug 10, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, but

The Mets are rich enough, and Minaya dumb enough, to do it.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Wilpons are Madoff victims

Supposedly this crimps their free-spending ways for the foreseeable future. If they do spend, it’s probalby for an OF bat like Holliday.

by ken on Aug 10, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

They'll panic

Again. Just like every year.

Even though the new stadium isn’t exactly bringing fans in in droves, they’ll still spend a bunch of money this off-season because the fans will demand it, and they’ll really need to to stay (read: be) competative.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Want to win in 2010?

Trade a prospect for a good fucking pitcher. My comment did not call for your sarcasm, in this case. It’s a legitimate suggestion – $14M in the payroll is more than enough flexibility to acquire an arm if needed. It’s not the most realistic scenario, but it is an OPTION. Flexibility, as we’ve seen, is crucial in this economy.

by jsl413 on Aug 10, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lincecum is still really cheap

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

So is

Rick Porcello

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

dude, he makes over a million dollars next year

no way I want THAT contract.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shrug.

I’m not familiar with other pitchers’ contracts. I’m just pointing out that the money freed up if we did trade Harang could be used to ends aside from FA.

by jsl413 on Aug 10, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're underestimating the value of a good, cost-controlled SP

Todd Frazier will not fetch someone like Matt Cain. Maybe Cain isn’t what you have in mind, but it’s hard to tell since you’re not offering any suggestions.

by ken on Aug 10, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Conceded.

I don’t underestimate the value, I just figured 14M is a lot of money.

by jsl413 on Aug 10, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

And it's not sarcasm

to point out that that’s unlikely, if not impossible.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I overreacted to Scrabble's first comment

I was in a bad mood about something else! Or maybe my dialated eyes are driving me cuckoo. There’s always the possibility that money could be used to take on a nice corner outfield RH bat.

by jsl413 on Aug 10, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are three issues

1. Getting back a better pitcher. Harang’s a better than average pitcher who pitches a ton of innings; those guys are valuable (even in a subpar year, Harang’s already been worth over $10M). I wouldn’t trade Aaron Harang for the best prospect in baseball straight up, let alone a cheaper Aaron Harang.

2. Trading a prospect straight up for a cheaper Aaron Harang still doesn’t neccessarily gain you any flexibility, because even if you save some money, it won’t be enough to get you an additional quality veteran player anywhere.

3. If you don’t get another Aaron Harang, the starting pitching (which is #23 in baseball in ERA) will be worse, and you haven’t accomplished anything.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Harang has been pretty shitty on the road this year.

He’s been OK at home at best. Maybe I truly don’t understand the nature of pitching contracts. Seems to me as though 14.5 million for a .500 pitcher (yes, I know records aren’t a good way to measure a pitcher’s success), or slightly above average pitcher is exorbitant.

by jsl413 on Aug 10, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

He'll only make $12.5 million in 2010

the other $2 million is a buyout for 2011.

Free agent pitchers who signed multi-year contracts last year:
AJ Burnett – 5yr/$82.5M
Ryan Dempster – 4yr/$52M
Kyle Lohse – 4yr/$41M
Derek Lowe – 4yr/$60M
Oliver Perez – 3yr/$36M
CC Sabathia – 7yr/$161M

The market was a little weird last year, and probably will be weird again this year, but I think we get a good grasp of what pitching costs on the free agent market. Harang is at least as good as Dempster, Lohse, and Perez. All of them make comparable amounts to what he’ll make next year. I bet if we look back at the last 2 or 3 years, we’ll see that $11-$13 million a year is right around the going rate for an average to slightly above average starting pitcher.

A couple of other things to keep in mind about Harang is that if he gets traded, his 2011 option becomes mutual and also increases to $14M ($2.5M buyout). I would guess that the Reds are going to have chip in some money (probably the cost of the buyout, if not a little more) for the deal or take a lesser return. So it is unlikely that they’ll be saving the whole $14.5 million in a trade. Also, if they were to acquire another pitcher after trading Harang, it’s doubtful that they’ll get a below market value pitcher of similar quality. At the very least, they’ll likely have to take on an escalating multi-year contract, so in the long run it could end up costing the team more money. And at least with Harang, the Reds don’t have to pay him past 2010, besides the buyout.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some chucklehead with a call-in show

told me the Lohse contract shouldn’t be considered because he signed early last winter.

by ken on Aug 10, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

that guy was an idiot

I didn’t realize that there were as many comparable deals when I said that. I was certain that Lohse had signed the biggest deal for an average pitcher.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is odd since GABP is about the best hitters park you can find

First time I shot her, I shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Aug 10, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

A couple of things

His ERA (which is a much better measure of pitcher success than W-L) adjusted for league/park shows him to be exactly average, which means it’s above average as a starter because reliever ERA is lower than starter ERA. Further, his fielding-independent ERA is about 1/3 run better than his ERA, showing he’s been pretty unlucky this year. He pitches a ton, which makes him more valuable than most starters. Finally, like I said above, he’s had a down year, and you’d certainly expect him to rebound a bit next year.

And just to add, he’s been very good at home, with a 3.70 ERA.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, he sucks.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

After this season he has only a partial no-trade clause

“full no-trade clause 2008-09, limited no-trade clause thereafter” – taken from Cot’s Baseball Contracts

"Even if he is average, I’d still take him over Willyevergetonbase Taveras." - Randy in Chatt on redsminorleagues.com

by RedsMasochist on Aug 10, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

and i agree with your statement that the Reds don't see next year as a rebuilding year,

but it doesn’t appear that they will put together a team vastly different from the one this year so i am expecting another losing season. i correlate losing seasons with rebuilding, though i probably shouldn’t given what the team is doing this year.

by GrooveLeg on Aug 10, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Will the real Walt Jocketty please stand up

Good point. I meant that to emphasize they don’t think it

For the life of me, I believe I could contend next year if I were Walt Jocketty, but the actual Walt Jocketty has confounded me for some time. So, I hold little faith in the real Walt Jocketty’s accrual of the talent to fill the holes after he went out and got a china doll to be on the DL for next season (seriously, who are you? Roy Chapman? It was a shot to the batting helmet already! Are you made of balsa wood?).

So, the real Walt might have killed his chances for 2010 with the trade, the cool thing is I think we’ve seen the 2010 Reds and it was the team which somehow beat Matt Cain plus Jay Bruce.

by timb116 on Aug 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

or are they the team that played well on Saturday but still lost to Barry Zito

plus Jay Bruce?

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

The latter,

but isn’t the former more satisfying to thing about?

by timb116 on Aug 10, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I assume the Mike Stanton BA is talking about

is not the 42-year-old pitcher SBNation autolinked to?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 10, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions  

haha, no it most certainly isn't

He’s a 19 year old currently crushing the ball in AA.

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Aug 10, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exciting about Juan Francisco

Where does he stick in the majors if not 3B in 2011?

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 10, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Probably a move to the outfield

If he’s too big to play 3rd, he’s probably too big to play anywhere else in the infield. Add another name to the list of possible outfielders for the future.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Aug 10, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

3rd string 1B

behind Votto and Alonso

"I piss excellence"

by obc2 on Aug 10, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Notshortstop

"Even if he is average, I’d still take him over Willyevergetonbase Taveras." - Randy in Chatt on redsminorleagues.com

by RedsMasochist on Aug 10, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

NotCincinnati

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 10, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't kid yourself guys

Who’s going to back Rolen up during the 80 games he’ll miss with injuries?

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Aug 10, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

hmmm...

package him and harang for a stud pitching prospect. toronto needs a future 3B and they have a certain pitching prospect who’s studly enough for my liking.

by GrooveLeg on Aug 10, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

This just in . . .

Scott Rolen does not have a concussion.

by Brian B on Aug 10, 2009 1:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

poke, poke, poke

he probably has glaucoma or some shit.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Aug 10, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Inner ear infection

First time I shot her, I shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Aug 10, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

then his boyfriend's doing it wrong

Will you stop it with the vegetables

by Man Mountain on Aug 10, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Or

He doesn’t have much to brag about.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was the oddest of them all

Why would he need to go on the DL for being gay? Being gay never put Jeter on the DL……

First time I shot her, I shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...

by btcoop71 on Aug 10, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Homophobia is hilarious!

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Reds could very well compete in '10

IF Stubbs is the regular CF.
IF Bruce is OK, and regains his swing.
IF Gomes keeps it up next year, and is the regular LF.
IF Hanigan keeps it up, and is the regular C.
IF the rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey all pitch well, and a decent 5th started is found either on the FA market or among the various spare parts in AAA.
IF none of the regulars miss significant time.
IF the bullpen stays very good.

If all of those things happen, then you could squint and see a playoff team; however, that still doesn’t make them a World Series (or especially a WS winning) team, which is what they really should be striving for; further, the team will likely look massively different in ’11 anyway, as only BP and Cordero among the veterans are under contract past next year. It would make sense to start the rebuilding NOW, even if it means another losing season.

Which of course would probably mean howling among the fanbase, so it won’t happen; it also would look very foolish in light of the Rolen trade (or the Rolen trade would look foolish in light of the rebuilding). So the veterans under contract will be back (except maybe Arroyo, who I think still has a chance to be traded yet this month and Taveras, who I think will be released or dealt this offseason), a couple mediocre veterans will be signed/traded for, and we’ll be saying many of the same things next year.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions  

I like the faith this shows
regains his swing.

If you mean the one he had in Triple A, then I say “hell yeah.” If you mean the one he had before he got hurt, then I say “oh, well, could be worse.”

by timb116 on Aug 10, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another IF

or, part B to that one:

IF they find a decent hitting coach, or at least one who connects with Bruce because he sure seems to be regressing since his first 10 days with the big league team.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Christ on a hubcap that's alot of fucking ifs.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Aug 10, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

This should be the motto for Reds baseball:

“If your aunt grows balls, then the Reds have a shot to make ’em all scream uncle!”

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Aug 10, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the Reds are headed in the right direction if...

Balentien can keep his production up, and can continue to perform at the level he has so far.

Bruce gets healthy and can regain the form he had when he first came up to the majors.

Hanigan can break this funk and start hitting.

We can find a cheap, but workable SS.

A lineup like this appeals to me:

Taveras/Stubbs CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Rolen 3B
Hanigan C
Balentien LF
(FA) SS

"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."

by ZJiff30 on Aug 10, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Looks like both Harang and Arroyo have cleared waivers

So teams aren’t willing to take on their entire salary to acquire them. (source)

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

If, as suggested in that article

the net result of our trades is to dump Arroyo or Harang for salary relief so that we can pay the overpriced Rolen, I will be even sadder about the whole thing.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I don’t think Morosi knows what he’s talking about regarding the money owed Rolen though.

I don’t think we see either moved, though. Bob clearly doesn’t want to take on salary and losing either is a huge risk with the Volquez injury. Wonder if CoCo cleared waivers.

Baseball must be a great game to survive the fools who run it.— Bill Terry

by nycredsfan on Aug 10, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually

Except for ’05 and ’07 (when he was barely overpaid), Fangraphs thinks Rolen has been severely underpaid, even factoring in his reduced playing time.

I’d agree he isn’t what the team needs right now, but to call him overpaid is incorrect.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

When he goes on the 60 DL next year for his shoulder, can I call him that

Damn, I hope he stays healthy. Imagine, pinning an entire offense and defense on a 35 year not named “Juiced Bonds.” Just frighening

by timb116 on Aug 10, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Boy, I love optimism!

Rolen missed 50 games in ‘07, had his 2nd worst year by OPS+ when he did play, and was still worth what the Reds will pay him next year (or more, though no one’s telling how much money Toronto’s sending).

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

i need to go through this thread

and rec all of your comments.

i love the monetary value statistic you are referencing!

Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,

by 'tHan on Aug 10, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

He missed 47 games last year, had another sub-par year at the plate, and was worth at least $2M more than the Reds will pay next season.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's a stretch to use those salary projections as literally as you are...

mainly because the value to the team is relative, not absolute.

One problem with Rolen missing all of those games is that someone has to play in his place. If that replacement isn’t in fact replacement-level, that’s a problem—since pulling in a replacement-level player would cost more money which the Reds either don’t have or aren’t going to spend since they have a big-name third baseman.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

My point is just a counterpoint to your comment

There’s no doubt those are estimates, but they serve to contradict your point – Rolen’s certainly not overpaid, and is probably underpaid (especially if he’s healthy).

Is $11M (or less, as we’ve been lead to believe) to him a good use of resources? Probably not on this team. Is he worth $11M? Certainly, as long as he plays at least 110 games.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should be more specific.

He may not be “overpaid” in some general sense while still being paid more than he’s worth to the Reds. I meant to refer to the latter, and the difference is important.

If the Reds had some pool of money available that they could spend on people as they wished, that would be one thing. Instead, they have a set of binding constraints: the many contracts, strengths at certain positions, etc. In that context, paying millions more to Rolen than they would have paid to Encarnacion is almost certainly not worth the gains they may receive from the move—let alone the low salaries they could have locked in for years for the two pitchers they gave up (though of course those pitchers’ futures are quite uncertain).

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still disagree

We agree that the numbers as Fangraphs shouldn’t be taken literally, but even at that, the difference between Rolen and EdE is massive – they think Rolen has been worth less than $10.4M once in his career (and less than $12.9M only twice), and that EdE has been worth more than $6.6M once in his (and never more than $9.5M). That is not a small difference, and it’s likely that the difference in money paid will result in similar extra “worth”.

I also can’t see that EdE would be on this team past next year; if that’s true, the Reds were not “trading away” any future years of cheaper play at 3B.

Finally, the difference in salaries (no more than $6.25M) wouldn’t be enough to made a difference on acquiring a player that will make a bigger difference in impact – in fact, given some of the recent contracts given out by the Reds, at least they won’t overpay some schlub by $6M next year.

So the only way this doesn’t make sense to me is if you think Roenike and/or Stewart would turn into decent pieces, either for this club or as part of a different deal (which either or both could do, but that’s not really part of the discussion); in terms of money alone, I still don’t see the problem.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

you keep glossing over the fact that Zach Stewart is a top 50 pitching prospect

that is worth a hell of a lot and the Reds cashed him in for a veteran upgrade that will not help them get to the playoffs. though Stewart’s future is uncertain, so is Rolen’s and EdE’s and the Queen of England’s and everyone else’s. sure Rolen is an upgrade over EdE at 3B, but they still overspent for him. and all he does is take them from a 76- win team (hopefully) to an 80 win team. so he’s basically worthless.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 10, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

4 wins isn't worthless

it’s just not worth enough

Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,

by 'tHan on Aug 10, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

unless those 4 wins are the difference between going to the playoffs or not

then yeah, they are pretty much worthless. to me anyway. im sure some would be perfectly happy with a .500 season.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 10, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

and i should add

Rolen isnt close to a 4-win upgrade over EdE. i was exaggerating for effect.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 10, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not at all

The conversation has to do with the financial part of the trade – Gray called Rolen “overpaid”, then qualified it by saying “still being paid more than he’s worth to the Reds.”

I’m just trying to show that in a vacuum, that isn’t true. Plus, I admitted that I’m ignoring the pitchers – “the only way this doesn’t make sense to me is if you think Roenike and/or Stewart would turn into decent pieces, either for this club or as part of a different deal (which either or both could do, but that’s not really part of the discussion)”.

I’ve said before that I don’t like this trade because it assumes the Reds think Rolen will help them win it all in ‘09 or ’10, which I think they can’t do even with him. But as I’ve said many times, from a purely money standpoint, it’s at worst a wash.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

The problem is

that we aren’t in a vacuum. That’s my point. I’m an economist, not an accountant, so in thinking of his value I incorporate the opportunity costs. His value to us over what we had before (EdE) isn’t huge if he’s out more games than EdE is.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 10, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really

Again, the numbers show that even with the playing time differences, Rolen has been much more valuable than EdE over the past three years.

Further, while lying awake at night worrying about whether this deal will hamstring the Reds next year, remember that they’ll be paying a total of $8M to Taveras, Lincoln, Gonzales, and Hernandez, three of whom likely won’t even be playing for the team next year.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right, you're still not getting what I'm saying

which is fine.

Of course I do agree with you about the stupidity of those deals, but as of a few weeks ago those were all in the past while the Rolen deal was avoidable. Now I should just get used to treating all of these horrible contracts as sunk costs.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Aug 11, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

ahhh i gotcha

"the only way this doesn’t make sense to me is if you think Roenike and/or Stewart would turn into decent pieces, either for this club or as part of a different deal (which either or both could do, but that’s not really part of the discussion)". i read this as a dismissal of the pitchers’ value rather than a setting aside of them. my mistake. thanks for clearing it up.

but to the point, im not sure i heartily agree with you. Gray’s point of the opportunity lost is a valid one. it’s true that Rolen is much more valuable than EdE, but if we assume that the money we are giving Rolen over what we would be giving EdE would be spent instead at fixing SS, we have to ask if Rolen + SS1 is better than EdE + SS2? where SS1 < SS2. unless Walt gets a payroll bump this winter (i guess anything can happen), i think the Reds are going to be pretty strapped.

but then again, it may not matter at all because SS1, SS2, and every other available SS this winter is going to suck.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 10, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

And the biggest two things are:

  • The Reds haven’t shown the past few years that they know how to spend a few million dollars – they do well at the low end, but not so much in the middle salary ranges.
  • There really aren’t many attractive SS available.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think they can be decent next year if he plays

and they find an SS. If he gets hurt, then they are toast. Color me frightened of that possibility.

pessimism is just another word for realistic…

Barrack Obama*

*Okay, he never said that, but I found it worked better if I attributed to someone slightly famous.

by timb116 on Aug 10, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Woodstock - 40 years ago this weekend

Debunking Woodstock: What really happened?

Back when Woodstock happened, no one expected that half a million rock fans would gather in the upstate town of Bethel, N.Y., on short notice. So rumors about what went on started to fly, and the media was first in line to start them says Howard Loberfeld, who attended at age 15.

"I went with a sleep-away camp," explains the New York native. "And the dichotomy between what was really happening and the news reports sent our parents into a tailspin. Every one of them called the camp and said ‘Get my kid out of there! We heard there’s deaths, we heard there’s no bathrooms, we heard there’s no food and we heard there’s drugs!’"

That’s not quite what Loberfeld and his fellow campers had experienced. Rather, he says, he and his buddies "just noticed a lot of music, a lot of fun and a lot of community." OK, so there were drugs, as Loberfeld found out when some long-haired dude walked by him yelling "Reds! Reds!" But he was so young and naïve, he thought the dealer was talking baseball: "I remember thinking to myself, ‘Gee, I like the Mets. I don’t know why he’s a Cincinnati fan.’"

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 10, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions  

heh.

I remember staying up late one night when I was a kid to watch the Warren Beattie movie Reds. I think I lasted about 45 minutes in or so before realizing that no, this wasn’t about my favorite team.

by Cy Schourek on Aug 10, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

It was this guy wasn't it?

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans

by Farneyismycopilot on Aug 10, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't worry

Demetri Martin and Ang Lee will get the whole thing cleared up for us.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jared Burton activated from the DL to take David Weathers' roster spot

as expected.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Aug 10, 2009 5:52 PM EDT reply actions  

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