Red Reposter - 7/6/09
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 6, 2009 12:58 PM EDT
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Bob Hunter at the Columbus Dispatch preaches patience in the trade market this year
He says that although this division is fairly winnable, the Reds are more than just one big bat away. At .500 now the Reds need to pick up about 6 or 7 wins over the course of the second half to really give themselves a shot. Hunter doesnt think Holliday or anyone else (he also named Gary Matthews Jr and made me puke) is good enough to boost the team into 1st place, so why should we sacrifice the future for an unlikely division series appearance?
He uses the Brewers of last year as an example. The traded top prospect Matt LaPorta to the Indians for CC Sabathia, who led them to a division series bow out. As Hunter says, "If the Reds had faced similar circumstances and traded Joey Votto for a quick trip into and out of the division series a few years ago, would anybody be happy about it now?" -
Bronson Arroyo says he's fine
"I'm fine...I'm fine," Arroyo said. "I've got no other excuses other than this game isn't easy. ... I can't change what happened. I'll just take the ball every fifth day and get ready for my next start against Johan Santana and the Mets (next weekend)." I dont know what to think. He certainly doesnt look fine. I'm convinced that the Reds are going to continue running him out there in the hope that he can put together a few strong starts and prove to the rest of the league that he's worth trading for. I'm just not as hopeful as they are. -
This is a really nice story about Joey Votto and his friends
He remains close with the host family whom he stayed with while playing for Dayton, and during his lowest moments they were there to pick him up. -
Redleg Nation has (unenthusiastically) named their Reds Player of the Month
and the award goes to Jonny Gomes. Not a good month for the Reds. -
THT has their weekly rankings up
and the Reds have slipped all the way down to #21. Their Dartboard Factor (how many wins a team would be expected to have at the end of the season if it played a neutral schedule) is now only 77. -
Chris Sabo's Goggles has an interesting conspiracy theory concerning Bronson Arroyo's latest rough patch
"Does anyone else find it interesting that Arroyo’s most recent slide coincides exactly with the announcement that Creed is reuniting?"
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i'm also against making a big trade
This team is .500 and has given up 22 more runs than they’ve scored. Pittsburgh has a better run differential than we do. The future is much brighter than the present for the Reds.
I'd do a big trade
if it involved All Star Bronson Arroyo getting traded for All Star Hanley Ramirez. Both have been All Stars in their careers, therefore it’s an even deal. I’d even throw in All Star Francisco Cordero if they wanted.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Can we unload EE?
Encarnacion’s defense scares me alot. Even if he produced 2 RBI I don’t know if it could make up for it!
Do you think the Reds have a person that can play average overall 3B?
EdE was worth about 2 wins over a replacement player last year. You’ll have to replace that value if you trade him.
And I’m not saying they shouldn’t trade him, but if your goal is to improve the offense, you make it harder by trading one of the keys to offense (2009 to date notwithstanding).
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Make that 43 runs.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Jerry's younger(and better baseball playing brother) goes to the As
for 2 minor league pitchers Italanio and Webb and player to be named later- which may be Sean Gallagher whom the As received in the Harden deal.
Scott Hairston is 29 seems to be above average defensive OF/ this year is sporting a gaudy 146 OPS+ wOBA 390.
Hes played pretty well since being dealt to the Padres- looks like a sharp pick-up for Billy.
Mr. Hunter's analogy is incorrect
so much so, it’s silly. The analogy would be trading Votto if you had Fielder
or trading Yonder when you have Votto.
The primary reason you take the best player in the draft is that you flip him for something valuable. How many MLB stars emerge in the majors with the team who drafted them? Personally, I never missed whomever the Reds traded to get David Wells. You don’t get many shots to win and you need to trade what you have to get it.
-——————————————————————————————————————————————————-
The future is always brighter for this team, yet as I have maintained before, that future is now. Homer, Johnny, and Volquez are young (but he who counts on healthy pitching is foolish), but the bullpen is full of guys in their prime or over the hill.
Bronson and Harang are as good as they are going to get. Are you going to get more from Cueto than you are getting this year? No. That means 3/5 of the starting pitchers you run out there are as good as they are gonna get.
On offense, the fact that Jay and Joey are young hides the fact that no one else of consequence is. EdE is what he is (well, certainly, his stats should improve), BP is in his prime, and only Dickerson could get better in the OF. I cannot believe Joey is a .380 hitter, so I think the Reds are getting slightly more from him than they could expect. On the other hand, Jay could actually hit some line drives and become much better, so that’s a wash.
In sum, on pitching, the only player the Reds haven’t received baseline value is Volquez. On offense, the only players who should improve next year would be Bruce and Dickerson (and forgive me for not imagining Dickerson is a huge difference maker, although I find value in competent CF’s).
The farm system has no impact bat close (which is not an indictment, considering it has produced EdE, Bailiey, Cueto, and Bruce, along with several useful spare parts in the last several years). Frazier or Soto or Stubbs is not going to transform this team (at least not in the next year or so).
This team, barring a major trade or free agent signing, taken as a whole, is in its prime. As Bruce improves, age will hamper BP, Hernandez, and the LF hole. As Bailey improves, Bronson and Harang will lose effectiveness or succumb to injury.
This team should not wait because it is not going to get better. If Walt can’t find a deal, I would be shocked if he didn’t blow up parts of the team in the off-season to change the dynamics. Otherwise, next year, we’ll still be talking about a .500 team.
Just my opinion.
I'll be bummed if LaPorta turns out to be another Joey Votto
JV – LH, plus defense, complete hitter with power. ML – RH, hopefully adequate defense and more of a power guy. I don’t expect it. I’m also not sure who you are referring to as the best player in the draft, but that wasn’t LaPorta. He was viewed with some skepticism at the time and the Brewers weren’t picking at the very top.
best player available to take
always the better way than" what are my organizational needs," in my humble opinion
I think most teams take the best available player
not just for trade purposes but because players frequently change positions in the minors. Rarely does a player stick at the position they played when drafted, catchers and 1B are the exception usually.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
yeah, I assumed we were talking on the offensive side of the field
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Sure
but I think we’re missing the forest for the trees. The Reds wouldn’t have traded a DePorta or a Votto 2-3 years ago, because they had no competent first baseman. The Brewers of 2008 and the Reds of 2009 are free from that and can trade for organizational excess to shore up a weakness.
Meanwhile, “my future is NOW” continues without attack?
What is up with you people? I know I’m an objective genius, but this board, including this very thread, constantly features the “this is a young team” meme. I directly challenged it.
I at least expected Slyde to do WAR chart that explains to me that I’m a dunderhead. If I’m right, let’s start the clamor for the trade
if the future is now
Why are we being outscored by 20 runs on the year? I’m an optimist so I have to hope that will improve. I think this year just looks bright because the past has been so dark.
What is this future
Wait for Cozart, Wood, and Frazier to get here 2011? There is no one player not named Bruce in this organization who can make the future brighter. We are one 7 game winning streak from being in first. Color me optimistic, but that could happen.
My big problem with "win now"
is who could this team possibly acquire to make them a legitimate contender? Holliday? Dye? So, we’re looking at a 3-month rental for a chance at possibly, maybe? And then what? More mediocrity next year?
I’m willing to trade Alonso or one of the 3B prospects to get somebody. I’m not interested in trading a chunk of the minor league system just for a possible shot at making the playoffs one year. I want long-term success, not a flash in the pan.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
and we're a 7 game losing streak from being in last
For the record I don’t think either is likely to happen. We looked to be a .500 team before the season started and we definitely look like one now (negative run differential not withstanding).
St Louis is on pace for 90 wins. We’re on pace for 81. Can we make up 9 games in half a season? What acquisition can make that happen? Even if you’re not high on our deep, but not premier farm system, I maintain that smart teams don’t mortgage any sort of future when they’re .500 and being outscored.
Let's just say that you and I agree to disagree,
When the window is open and the fan base is demoralized, you roll the dice and pick up someone. The Reds gave up the 55 million dollar closer to get Wells and I would still do that trade.
I would do that trade as well
but the Reds were 53-32 and in first place when they acquired Wells. That window is open a lot more than this one is.
I really don’t see us as being a bat or two away from strong contention
Especially if you’re talking about acquiring Holiday. As Slyde said, such a trade would sizably limit the future potential of the club, while perhaps picking up an additional 5 wins this year. It’s just not worth it.
If you want to start trading away the older pieces, I might have some sympathy for your position.
Holliday probably wouldn't net 5 wins over the course of half a season, more like 2-3
And as far as your challenge, timb,
This IS a young team. Votto, Bruce, EdE are all before their primes, BP will be in his for the next 2-3 years. To think that Bruce isn’t going to be waaaaaay better the next 2-3 years than he has been so far is unrealistic, same with EdE to some extent.
To say Hernandez will decline is silly because he’s not going to be on the team next year and there is every reason to believe Hanigan can out perform what he’s been doing for the next 2-3 years.
But lets, for argument’s sake, say that all of those positions-1B, 2B, 3B, C, RF-are going to be identical in production for the next 2-3 years. (Stupid, since 3B has been a black hole so far)….So our positions of suck have been CF, LF, and SS. Our most MLB ready minor leaguers are at those three positions. Valaika could step in next year (maybe right now) and out produce what we’ve been getting at SS, and Cozart looks no more than another year away either. Frazier could and maybe should be starting at LF right now, and if EdE was still hurt, 3B. Stubbs isn’t an offensive powerhouse, but will get on base, steal bases, and play amazing defense…..basically, do everything Taveras was supposed to do this year but hasn’t.
So it’s reasonable to assume that next year you could plug Frazier in to LF, Valaika in to SS, and Stubbs in to CF and, combined with the current team, this team is immediately better offensively. And that’s completely ignoring Heisey.
Pitching, a rotation of Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, and Owings, with Steward and Wood mixed in, could easily match this year’s pitching, if not exceed it. Bullpen-wise, the loss of Weathers and Rhodes (who is signed for next year) could be made up with AAA players like Burton, Viola, Bray. Enough of the bullpen is young that I’m not worried about that
Now, say we make a trade for Holliday (the only guy on the market who is a real difference maker) We’d have to give up at least two of the three future starters I just mentioned, plus probably a pitcher. So when he bolts next year, we’re stuck with holes at those positions again, and Walt has to try and spend a bunch of money on a guy to fill one, and we get crap filler at the others, and we’re mediocre again next year.
Mortgaging the future for a misguided playoff run this year is a bad, bad idea.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
How come you like Valaika and Frazier more than anyone else? Fans have a tendency to greatly exagerrate their own prosopects.
Look at BP. Look at Baseball America. None of those people think there are impact bats at high levels in this system (except Stubbs, but where does that leave Dickerson and his similar skill set? Besides, as a rookie, I doubt Stubbs surpasses what Dickerson has done this season)
I am unswayed in that you totally over-value the minor league players on this team. Bray? Burton? How can you count on one guy who didn’t make the team and the other who got sent down? It’s at best a crapshoot.
We’ve watched Homer struggle for going three years, but Travis Wood, pitching at Double A, can step right in and be a positive force in the majors?
As for the rest, Baseball Prospectus says
Frazier
Perfect World Projection: Frazier has enough bat to be an above-average third baseman or an adequate everyday right fielder.
Glass Half Empty: If the organization’s other third basemen in the minors and the relatively young one in the majors force a move to the outfield for Frazier, he’s merely average.
Path To The Big Leagues: That all depends on where he ends up defensively, but the outfield makes more sense for him with this organization, though it does limit his value to other teams.
Timetable: Frazier will continue to play all over the diamond with the Reds’ new Double-A affiliate at Carolina.
Valaika
Perfect World Projection: He might turn out best as an offense-oriented second baseman.
Glass Half Empty: His inability to work the count catches up to him, and he ends up as a utility player.
Path To The Big Leagues: For now, Valaika will stay at shortstop, where the organization has a much greater need.
Timetable: He’ll likely join Stubbs at Triple-A to begin the 2009 season.
Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (as of Opening Day 2009)
1. Jay Bruce, OF
2. Edinson Volquez, RHP
3. Joey Votto, 1B
4. Yonder Alonso, 1B
5. Johnny Cueto, RHP
6. Homer Bailey, RHP
7. Todd Frazier, INF
8. Drew Stubbs, CF
9. Chris Valaika, SS
10. Bill Bray, LHP
All from BP. Ask yourself how many of those talents 25 and under are with the team right now and how many of us need a switch-hitting (OPS <.600 at Triple A) 2nd baseman or a 3rd baseman who cannot take a walk and can’t play defense (with an 800 OPS at Double A).
The majors is a bigger jump than you give it credit for (from Double A or hitting 200 at Triple A)
I never mentioned Holliday
I mentioned an impact bat. The Reds aren’t the Yankees, so they would be chasing the flavor of the month. Besides, unless they wanted to sign Holliday to an extension, then giving anything of tremendous value is a mistake.
Why does everyone mention Holliday. In this economy, the idea that he’s the only bat out there is bound to be untrue. There are bats.
who?
who are the impact bats that available to the Reds? That’s what I don’t see.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I doesn't know
As much as I hate to say it, not every GM opens his entire operation up to the press. Everyone knows about Holiday, but maybe everyone doesn’t know about Aubrey Huff or Alex Rios.
The moves right now are limited because everyone in both leagues within shouting distance of .500 imagines they are in contention for at least a wild card. Over the next few weeks, it will sort itself out (and maybe turn the Reds into sellers instead of buyers.). Walt was stingy during the winter when it came to make a move. I imagine he’ll be stingy now as well.
After all, I’m not advocating for a rash move. Just a rational move. Beane always said you spend two months figuring out what you have, two months getting what you need for this year or next and two months playing for the division (if possible). We know what they need and it’s not necessarily Holliday (I still think Willingham would be nice) and it doesn’t have to be Adam or Holliday. Anything that move BP out of clean up and takes away a black hole is an improvement.
From the Votto Article
"Yeah, they had three rules," he said with a laugh. "No drinking. No girls. Don’t mess with the daughters."
Linda smiled when his recollection later was relayed to her: "He’s exactly right, but let me tell you something. Over the course of years, all of those rules have been broken, and one player broke all three at once."
How awkward would it be for everyone involved to be caught violating rule number 3.
Bloop
I put even money on Dunn or Kearns breaking one if not all of those.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 6, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
both of the girls are attractive
and athletes have a tendency to be attractive and strong, so i mean it is kinda like a problem waiting to happen.
Bloop
definitely more likely than not I suppose
I was trying to imagine how I would feel if minor league athletes moved into my home. Not sure I would be keen on the idea, but I wouldn’t mind having Adam Rosales move in. I bet he would be gung ho about everything—including dishes and laundry
Thanks for all o the updates and news
That article about Votto was nice to read and I’m very glad to know he’s got local support.
As for th big trade thing, I agree with Fay that we shouldn’t “mortgage the future” so to speak, but I also think we really have a shot at this division given te way the other teams have been playing. Almost everyone in the top is just hovering above .500. If we get that extra offense, we might be able to make a run. I just don’t want to have to give up Bailey for it.
The Creed conspiracy, I think it has potential.
Can you take the conspiracy higher?
by Brendanukkah on Jul 6, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
BOOOOO!
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 6, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
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