Thinking about Aaron Harang
by Slyde on Jul 23, 2009 4:14 PM EDT
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PrintI've been thinking about Aaron Harang a lot lately. And fellas, let me tell you, if you want to...ahem...stay in the game longer, thinking about Aaron Harang will get you there. But I've been thinking about him mainly because there is so much talk about potentially trading him. As you know, I'm not a big fan of the idea, but I decided I should look a little deeper and see if it makes sense.
Trade Value
First off, using Beyond The Box Score's Trade Value Calculator, we can estimate Harang's net value at about $8 million. This takes into account the remaining value on his contract plus a simple projected value that I gave him for the remainder of that contract. Obviously that projected value is a bit of a guesstimate, but I tried to be conservative - I gave him 1.5 WAR for the remainder of 2009 and 3.25 WAR for 2010. I assumed that his 2011 option wouldn't be picked up and added the $2 million buyout into his 2010 salary.
Once again, we're dealing with an estimator, but that estimator only projects Harang to be worth a pitching prospect that is around the 100th best prospect in baseball. I think this is probably a little low since I think general managers intrinsically value established pitchers more than prospects (as they should) and also because Harang is going to be worth more to a team that is a game or two out of the race than just any average team, which the calculations in BtB's spreadsheet assume. So, let's bump up that estimate a bit and say that Harang is worth a player who is in the 75-100 group in terms of prospect status, plus maybe a throw-in minor prospect. I'm trying to keep things reasonable, but also bump Harang's value a bit for our purposes.
That sort of prospect could be very valuable over the long-term. He's likely thought of highly enough to be a future regular in the big leagues. However, it is unlikely that somebody in that range is going to come in and provide 3 WAR for the Reds in 2010. So, if the Reds are serious about being contenders in 2010, they will need to use the money saved by trading Harang and sign somebody to help make up for what they've lost. There are some possibilities on the free agent market, but I wouldn't say that the market is overflowing with game changers this off-season. Not to mention the fact that it's hard enough to find 3 WAR players in the first place.
So, I stand by reasoning for not wanting to trade Harang. However, I do have some concerns about him that I'll express after the jump.
The Slipping Slider
One good thing about Harang this year has been the fact that he appears to have recovered some of the speed on his fastball that he lost last year. In fact, checking the Pitch FX graphs at FanGraphs shows that Harang appears to be getting stronger with his fastball as the season progresses:
This data has not been corrected for park effects, but I'm not sure that matters so much that it would eliminate the obvious trend upward in the speed of his fastball. In fact, on average, his fastball looks a lot like it did in 2007, though it has slightly more horizontal break and slightly less vertical break. It's lost some of its value since then, but I have a feeling that has as much to do with his other primary pitch as anything. It's hard to be a one pitch pitcher and have a ton of success with that pitch.
The real problem for Harang has been his slider. In 2007, he had one of the top 10 most valuable sliders in baseball. He didn't throw it as hard as some pitchers, but he had some excellent movement on it, both horizontally and vertically. That started to slip in 2008 and this season, as his slider is nearly flat vertically. Lacking that break, his slider has gone from one of the most dominant to perhaps the least valuable slider in the league. His slider is estimated to be 7 runs worse than the average slider this season. That's a drop in value of nearly 20 runs since 2007. If you think there is a problem with Harang, I think that is where you need to look.
I've only done a little bit of research beyond what I put here. I looked the release point of his slider compared to 2008, which is the only other data I have, and it appears to very similar on average. I don't think that rules out a bad release point, but I don't have the data from 2007 to be able to judge if there has been a change since then. It seems logical though that if he's losing vertical movement, he's likely not getting on top of the slider as much as he used to. I'll try to get to the 2007 data and see if that shows up there.
So what do you think? Given the potential return and the potential issues with a key pitch, is it worth trading Harang at this point?
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first! keep harang ... period.
"I never use a big word when a diminutive one will work." — Pete Mackanin.
Off topic - but I watched the 9th in Buehrle's perfect game
anyone else see that catch by Dwayne Wise??? That was absolutely spectacular! One of, if not the best clutch catch I’ve ever seen! That one will be memorable!
I liked that (what appeared, at least to be) his wife and baby daughter were on the field to celebrate it with him.
By the way, Wikipedia (which confirms he has a wife, a baby daughter, and a 2-year-old son) had the perfect game posted within a few minutes of it finishing – that site is amazing!
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
didn't he almost throw one early this season too?
Or am I thinking of his no hitter? when was that?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Oh, and that catch by Wise was ridiculous
if you haven’t watched it yet, go to MLB.com and watch it. Under the circumstances, it was just plain silly.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
That was pure awesome.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 23, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
incredible
that split second where he bobbled it was probably the longest second of his life.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 23, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely.
But to roll that thing directly into your bare hand while falling is impressive.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 23, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I just did a FanShot on that
Not a FanPost, mind you.
Here is that catch
The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!
yeah, I still don't believe in FanShots
though your proper use of it makes me reconsider my stance.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Jul 23, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly....
Putting it in the comments here works just as well.
The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!
If you are considering assassinating George Grande (and who isn't?)
you need only to listen to the White Sox telecast for a few innings to realize it could be even worse. What passes for commentary there is unfathomable.
Did you hear the perfect game call? “Alexei….YES….YES…YES….YES….YES…HISTORY!”
Colin Auscapee: RR Emeritus Par Excellence, OB-GYN Esquire III
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 23, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If Congress cared about Justice, they would have passed a law authroizing the execution of Hawk YEARS ago.
Even when I didn’t have anything but basic cable and I was starved for baseball, I STILL could not listen to White Sox games. Too painful.
By the way, I never looked at Alexi’s numbers, but he LOOKS like a SS to build an INF around
On topic
Unless we get an impact player back for Harang that can make an impact in 2010, there’s no way the Reds compete without him.
Just because they’ll save salary doesn’t guarantee they’ll put it into another player – with the way the Reds are fading, ticket sales are sure to be lower for the coming months. That’ll translate to less revenue and less $ to spend on payroll.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
because Slyde fancies himself as a kind of Thomas Pynchon of the baseball world
frankly, i think he is more as the Bronson Pinchot of the baseball world.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 23, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I had to look up who that was
and I’d have to say that yes, I too am noted for my “dense and complex works of fiction”
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Nice references CS.
Imagine what Slyde could do if he had financial assets of an MLB team to diagnose player/team issues. Just… imagine.
Don't Give Up Your Day Job, Slyde!
Every MLB team already employs these sorts of stats people, and they make $2.85 an hour. Stick with your day job here. You’re more valuable and you make more money.
Excellent Harang report. Good reading. But as you know, the return on Harang will depend greatly on how much of his contract the Reds are willing to gobble. But he should bring a top 10 prospect from a team and a player ready to contribute now.
WAR
What is it good for?
Don’t trade this guy if you want to contend in 2010. Agreed.
And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...
by Paul Householder on Jul 23, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions
I don't think trading him is a good idea
but I also think they could make a run at 2010 without him
For example, if it were him instead of Volquez who was injured, and if Volquez were pitching like he did last year, I’d venture a guess that the reds very well might be doing better in the standings at this point.
Then again, if ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ were candies and nuts, we’d all have a heck of a Christmas.
I would trade him
if you could get something similar to what the As got for Blanton last year. A pitcher that was close to MLB ready in Outman and a solid position prospect in Donaldson.
The Reds need to clear space to see what they have in their young pitching so Arroyo or Harang needs to be traded or preferably both.
I wouldnt use the money next year on the FA market- but put it in a lockbox. Go young pitching and defense 2010 and then if needed go FA market 2011. Also lose Dusty and Taveras.
I refuse to play for 2011
and I believe those young pitchers are good enough for this team to win with in 2010.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
good on you
David’s theme lately makes me want to punch Walt, because I think it’s what Walt things too!
*aren't good enough
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I definitely don't want to trade Harang
and I’m starting to feel like maybe not trade Bronson either.
My hope is that Bronson pitches well the rest of the year, then when Rich Harden and John Lackey are getting crazy rich FA deals in the offseason, somebody will bite on him and Walt can get a good package in return. I really think the need for a decent starter will be higher in December than it is now.
As for Harang, there is no way we get back in money and prospects what we’d be losing.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Another off topic
but it looks like St. Louis might be willing to trade Brett Wallace for Matt Holliday. Wallace is one of, if not the best prospect in their organization. Looks like they are going all out for this season.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Wallace is definitely their best prospect
and is too steep a price to pay for Holliday. unless the A’s throw in O-Cab. that could be a deal worth making.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 23, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I honestly find it crazy that they would do this
considering Troy Glaus leaves after this year and they were fastracking this guy to play 3B next year. Whatever, they always find some voodoo magic and are good every year, bastards
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
So I was looking at Glaus' contract details since he's injured
and written into it is $250,000 a year for his wife to do her equestrian training while on the road with him.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Is her name Catherine by chance?
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
I heard Wallace wasn't going to stick at third
If he’s a first basemen he’s definitely a moveable part for St Louis.
I always think
of Marge Schott when I want to stay in the game. Unfortunately, she is so powerful that she ruin the experience entirely, so I really cannot recommend using her.
Keep Harang, if he pitches 3 or 4 more years, he will pass Maloney for the lifetime leader in SO’s by a Red. Sad, isn’t it?
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Jul 23, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions
This one
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5693265&c_id=cin
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
That was a hell of a catch
But it doesn’t make up for two months of sucktitude.
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
I would..
try to either trade Harang, Arroyo, or Cordero (if possible). One of those big paychecks has to go so you can build some in the off season.
I would love to see harang back at early 2005/6 form
Although his velocity has returned, he’s not nearly as effective as a #1 needs to be, Maybe its as Slyde says that his slyder is broken. The big problem is twofold: 1. finding a #1 replacement AND 2. replacing Harang as well if you trade him. If Volquez is repaired he could well be the #1. when I looked at Harang’s stats, he doesn’t appear to that different than in previous years although his 2009 WHIP is 1.41 compared to 1.26 and 1.27 in 2005/6, but he’s not doing much for this team the last couple of years.
I will be clobbered for writing this but: sometimes you gotta look at a guy and take your best guess...is he going to bounce back and if so, how far back and for how long…what’s the immediate to semi-long term best guess as to what this guy will produce. In Harang’s case I see him as most useful to a team that is contending, as a # 3 or 4, especially down the stretch and especially if that team has a manager who knows how to handle a pitching staff. I think now would be a superb time to move him. There are some pretty decent FA Veteran hitters out there that could be of more use to the team than another 8 Win – 12 Loss SP.
Miguel Tejada 356/469/825
Mark DeRosa 336/464/800
Hank Blalock 299/521/821
Johnny Damon 363/505/868
Geoff Jenkins 344/490/834
Compared to:
Chris Dickerson 365/373/738
Edwin Encarnacion 341/365/706
Wily taveris 288/301/588
Jerry hairston jr. 304/387/691
Jay Bruce 310/448/834
I really don’t want the Reds to be playing for 2011. they have a decent bull pen, a decent core of pitching, they have enough young exciting players in Bruce, Votto, BP, Hanigan and in the wings Todd Frazier as well as Heisy and Alonzo. We got a couple of veterans I’d hang onto in Gomes and Hairston as bench players. Plus a league average Chris Dickerson – so the Reds need at least 1 ( big banging) outfielder, a better than league average 3B (EdE isn’t even league average) and strong hitting-fielding SS.
To get what they need the Reds have to give up someone decent – I’d recommend a couple of suspects er, prospects plus Weathers (and Burton if anyone wants him)
Move Harang now, sign one of these FA’s to a two year contract and go for it in 2010.
(BTW – I’d keep Bronson Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez as well as Massett, DRH, and Arthur Rhodes, anyone else should be available if the trade is right including Micah Owings).
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
I posted that BP article the other day
where Joe Sheehan thinks it’s ridiculous that the Reds don’t have the core in place now. He intimated by throwing in this season, they could prepare for 2011, as well, but, if that core is intact now, then why wait
I had to do a double take there
Those stats are OBP/SLG/OPS. And while I appreciate any effort to minimize batting average, usually three slash stats are presented as AVG/OBP/SLG and then maybe OPS.
I posted this one Twitter today, but if you don't follow it
Over the last 3 seasons, the Reds are 45-38 in Aaron Harang’s starts, but Harang himself is just 27-33. Comparably, the Reds are 40-48 in Arroyo’s starts since 2007, but Arroyo is 34-35. I swear Harang’s teammates are plotting against him.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
only occasionally
basically, when I’m too busy to post here, I’m too busy to post on Twitter too.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I'm really not that bothered by the Dodgers series
I mean, I hate the losses, but I don’t take losses to the Dodgers hard because they clearly are the class of the NL. It’s not even close.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
except, weirdly, ours
where he woul still probably hit 8th…
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Jul 24, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
There's other things to do
Like, catch a free show with local bands at Ft. Reno. Or watch the USA play Honuras (freaking again!) at Kitty O’Shea’s while enjoying half price burgers.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 23, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The most depressing thing
about the Reds this year isn’t that they’re losing. I kind of figured they would.
The depressing thing is that I don’t think they’ll be better next year. There are no game-changing prospects we can expect to arrive by next year. The economy is still so bad I doubt they’ll be in the mood to spend on free agents. And even if they are…the track record is not so good.
I don’t think they can make a run for it next year. Sorry, Slyde. I’ll miss you.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
In my heart of hearts
I want Slyde to become a Yankees fan in 2011.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 23, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the universe would explode
Kinda like matter and anti-matter meeting.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Unlikely
I’ll probably start a blog about colors other than red, just to see what else is out there.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
There is a game changing prospect who could arrive in 2010
His name is Jay Bruce.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
That's what we thought last year
I think he’ll be a great player, but he wasn’t this year, and with his injury, he’s not going to get a chance to learn.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
my point is that he'll be a threat to break out in 2010
just as he was in 2009. If he does, they have a much better chance of being a winning team.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Sure
But his injury is a real bummer. Not only does it rob of him a chance to get more big league experience this year, you gotta wonder if it will affect his hitting next year.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
He should be fine. No ligament or tendon damage and traumatic arthritis should be minimal
given his treatment. I would expect a 100% recovery. In fact, I consider this more like breaking a hand than smashing a wrist (as far as the long term effect go)
I think he'll recover fully
But it might take longer than you think.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
This has kinda been discussed ad nauseum around here
but while there isn’t any one thing that can push the Reds into contending, I truly believe that a number of factors can do it.
1) Continued development from Bruce. Yes, he was disappointing this year, but he was also really unlucky and even with all of that showed promise in his BB and K rates to go along with amazing defense.
2) Stubbs/Dickerson/Heisey becoming the solid everyday CF we’ve been lacking. No one thinks any of them would be world beaters next year, but league average production from CF combined with solid to excellent defense would dramatically improve that aspect.
3) Getting a decent SS and a good bat for LF. These are the two biggest variables for next year. I think #1 and #2 are pretty safe bets (as long as Taveras isn’t still the starting CF), but getting these two pieces in place means this could be good team as long as all of the pitching isn’t traded away (just Arroyo and Weathers)
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
God, I hate to do this
but what us think he won’t be the starting CF next year?
Lance McCallister, clearly a Rhodes scholar, called him the hottest hitter on the team not named Votto on the last night’s radio broadcast. “Did you know Willy’s hitting .300 in the last 20 games?” By my calculations…hold on, carry the one, divide by two, square root of 9, multiple by Pi, and multiple by ten….that makes his OBP .300 in the last 20 games (unless he was by a pitch).
The ironic thing is productive players are getting hurt, but Willy seems in no danger of ripping his hamstring and thus keeping Dusty away from him.
he will be in the second and final year of his contract
and Walt my be willing to release him.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 23, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't really disagree with your points
I just disagree about the likelihood of them happening.
1) I don’t think Bruce was that unlucky. As that analysis said, his bad BABIP was his own doing. I think he still has a lot to learn, and now he won’t have the chance to do it this year. There’s also the possibility that his wrist injury will affect his play next year. Wrist injuries are trouble, and I would not be surprised if it took him awhile to fully recover.
2) Taveras is still signed next year, and I don’t think Dusty’s gonna bench him for Dickerson. Maybe they’ll move Willy over for Heisey or Stubbs, but the kids are likely to struggle to adapt to the big leagues, as Bruce has. We can’t count on them next year.
3) We need to do that, but I don’t see it happening. Everyone knew the Reds needed a big bat for LF this year, too. We ended up with Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald. I think the economy’s going to be even worse by hot stove season, and Bob won’t be in the mood to open his wallet.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
but will the other owners be any more willing to spend?
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 23, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I think so
The Reds cut back more than most other teams.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
what do you have to back that up?
i mean there wasn’t really any one on the market last year that the Reds needed and who was in their price range.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 23, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
The Reds
dropped in the payroll rankings.
Darnell McDonald and Laynce Nix? Common. Those were budget picks if ever there were any.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
but who would they have picked up if they wanted to spend?
I think that was as much a product of who was on the market as anything else.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 23, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
At the very least
they should have picked Gomes instead of McDonald.
I think the reason they didn’t was Gomes had a higher salary. He’d have gotten $200,0000-$400,000 more than Nix or McDonald. Peanuts for a baseball team, but the Reds DFA’d Norris Hopper for similar money.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
i don't know
this team makes a lot of unusual roster decisions.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 24, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
We were the only team to offer Willy a major league contract right?
If we were penny pinching that much I think we would have made some different choices on Willy/Rhodes/Lincoln etc. I just think Dusty liked Darnell in LF with his speed and glove more than Gomes. Which would have been fine had it been Dickerson instead of McDonald.
Also, I just think the Chicago fans thought it was Baker managing their team not Guillen cause maybe Dusty is the racist! McDonald/Patterson/Hairston/Taveras/Hernandez/Gonzalez while Gomes/Nix/Hanigan/Stubbs/Frazier/Janish/Sutton sit!!!!
By the way
I’m joking about him being racist. He’s just a fucking moron. Which also happens to be the reason we are losing.
Bullshit
If this team was healthy all year, while not having an inept manager, we are at least second in the division.
The manager is not inept, as his three manager of the year awards
multiple playoff appearances and excellent job with this pitching staff shows. He does make weird line-ups, but that’s hardly the full extent of a manager’s job
didn't the same group of peopel who made dusty manager of the year
selected Justin Mourneu for MVP?
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 25, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I think
a lot of those contracts were done before they fully realized how bad the economy was. Spring training attendance fell off sharply after years of gains, and I think that’s when some teams really saw the handwriting on the wall.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Any thoughts on why the Reds attendance has risen so far vs last year?
I didn’t want to put any effort into it, but maybe there’s been a disproportionate number of big draw/Cubs games.
some local attractions are doing well
The Cincinnati Zoo was expecting a drop in attendance, but they got a surge instead, as people who might have traveled instead went to the zoo.
However, what really counts is revenue, not attendance. Baseball did very well attendance-wise during the Great Depression…but that was because they dropped ticket prices and had crazy promotions. Revenue took a hit, because the fans who did show up didn’t buy hot dogs, etc.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Can't do that
but I have to think Walt at least sees that he’s useless and maybe they’ll release him or force a demotion to 4th OF status.
If you think about it, all Dusty cares about is speed and defense for CF, and since Stubbs will definitely provide that,(Dickerson too), I don’t see any reason, other than general mistrust of young players, that he wouldn’t start either of them.
I wonder if the second year for Willy was because they thought he’d be decent this year and they could trade him in the offseason or if not, they had insurance in case Stubbs faltered in AAA.
If Stubbs doesn’t get a September call up, then I’ll be really worried.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
You can get better next year by getting a decent 3B, SS and a Big Hitter for LF
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
They have a decent 3B
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Ok, a better than almost league average 3B then
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Honestly,
the gaping holes at SS and LF, I’d think you’d get over the 3B situation. St. Louis has been really weak at 3B this year and look where they are.
Edwin is not the problem.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
He is when he's hurt
We’ve demonstrated that we don’t have depth at the hot corner.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 23, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Frazier/Valaika optimistically? maybe?
It’d be fun to see what Beltre could do, now that he’ll be an FA. The SS is absolutely necessary, and I don’t see any way that the Reds are going to get one without magic beans.
Edwin not THE problem
But I don’t see the Reds getting all 3 (SS, 3B and LF) so I’d take any 2 out of 3 at this point. I also don’t hated EdE but I’d rather have a more productive bat than his…at least league average at 3B.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Major League average 3B in 2008: .266 /.336/.436
EdE in 2008: .251/.340/.466
Obviously he’s not hitting that this year, but I think it’s fair to give him a break for the injured month and since he’s been back he’s hit .308/.410/.577. I’m confident that given a long enough stretch, he’ll be at least as good on the year as he was last year.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
how's his defense this year?
BBRef’s stats have him at about the same as in the past, but I’ve heard less griping from y’all…has he quantitatively improved in that department?
I haven't looked at the numbers, but I doubt it's any different
and even if it was, we have nowhere near enough data to tell anything reliable yet.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I will give him a break becausehe's injured AND becuase i respect your opinion
If this team was more balanced – Great hitting SS, C, LF and Great defender and decent hitter in CF – EdE would be just fine…but it ain’t..and i truly can’t imagine Dusty giving up Wily t. for 2010…so we gotto pick up the offensive slack somehwere.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Don't you read anything on this site?
Just yesterday I stated (pretty clearly) what Harang’s problem is – BABIP. Even if his slider doesn’t have as much movement as before, that doesn’t explain a 30 point jump from last year.
And without looking at pitch-by-pitch data, I don’t think the slider does explain it. As I said yesterday, none of his other peripherals are out of whack. If he had a pitch that was less effective than before, wouldn’t you see a drop in K rate, or a rise in HR rate? In fact, as a percentage of his hits allowed, he’s allowing fewer 2b (19.5% of hits allowed are 2b this year vs. 23.2% prior to this year) and HR (11.9% vs. 12.9%) and essentially the same 3B (2.1% vs. 2.0%); on the other hand, 6.7% of his GB are turning into infield hits – much higher than either the previous two years (3.4% and 3.6%) or his career. So while he’s allowing more hits, he allowing fewer hard hits, which certainly doesn’t sound like “flatter, more hittable pitches” to me.
So, after looking a little more, I’m even more convinced that there really isn’t anything “wrong” with Harang that a decent SS wouldn’t solve.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
How hard are the ground balls being hit this year compated to say 2006 ?
The harder they’re hitter the faster they go and the faster they go the more they turn into base hits.
I would think that although a better shortstop would help that ain’t the whole story either.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Line Drive rate
2007: 17.9%
2008: 21.9%
2009: 24.1%
I talked about his BABIP a week ago – don’t you read anything on this site? He’s had less defensive help than any starter on the Reds, but to simply play it off as all the defense’s fault is likely not a complete picture.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Quit trying to suck up
Even if you are the only one around here that seems to see the truth.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I for one wish you'd post more oftener - your point of view is always interesting even if its over my head...
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Besides
Not “always”.
I was clearly not right in throwing the 3rd peanut at the Milwaukee Asshats Saturday.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
slyde definitely made the wrong decision telling you to stop
it almost got him cut in the throat in the 8th inning
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
Last time I try to help anybody out
ever.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Still
For all of those extra LD, none (actually, fewer than in the past) are going for XBH; they’re all only singles. They aren’t finding the gaps, they aren’t going over the fence; he isn’t even allowing more balls in play than before. His fly balls aren’t travelling any further (HR/FB, again from fangraphs, is 11.1% vs. 10.9% for his career).
On the face of it, he isn’t getting himself in trouble – he’s throwing strikes on about 64.7% of his pitches, compared to 65.5% previously. He’s throwing about the same percentage of fastballs, which would tell also tell me he’s not getting into more bad pitcher’s counts.
I dunno. You have one number and data on one pitch that point in one direction, and a bunch of other numbers and data on another pitch that point…I don’t want to say in the opposite direction, but certainly elsewhere.
You and I do seem to agree on one point, though – it would be unwise to trade him unless the Reds are really blown away.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
My only argument is that it's not that simple
I’m not arguing that he’s a bad pitcher in any way, which I think you know. I just want to make that clear in case it’s not obvious.
That being said, his strikeouts are actually down from 2007. He’s only pace for 31 fewer strikeouts, which I think is significant, though not necessarily worrisome. In 2007, he struck out 22.9% of the batters he faced. In 2009, it’s down to 19.8%. His walk-rate, thankfully, is stable. BTW, I’m comparing him to his peak, not his career numbers since I feel like the question at hand is how much has he dropped from his peak.
You are right though that the groundballs are where his luck has fallen off. His BABIP on groundballs is .314, which is about 80 points higher than the league average. So yes, a little bit of defensive help on the infield would do him some good, though we obviously have no clear way to judge at this point how hard the ball is really being hit (Damnit, HIT FX, become more accessible!). FWIW, his BABIP is 40 points below average on line drives, so some of that pain on groundballs has been abated.
I’m still not convinced that there isn’t anything wrong with his slider – though I passed my suggestions on to Chris Welsh and he basically said I was wrong too. I think the mistake of DIPS is that we have a tendency to totally write off BABIP discrepancies as luck, when there is a set of relevant data that we don’t know. Hopefully Hit FX will give us more knowledge in that realm.
Ultimately, we’re both in agreement that Harang shouldn’t be traded. My point is that he is not as good as he was in 2007, though the difference probably not worth the number of keystrokes I’ve used already.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Here's a thought
Maybe the reason his BABIP on LD is lower because of better OF defense (which in my mind would also translate into fewer XBH).
I don’t think I’ve been arguing that there’s nothing wrong with his slider (at least I hope not); I have no way of knowing. What I think I’ve been arguing is that he’s as effective as he’s ever been overall, save for a bit of bad luck/poor defense. Also, the “differences in BABIP” meme has already been significantly softened (though the two big exceptions (knuckleballers and GB pitchers) don’t apply to Harang); others have said that it’s only true of MLB pitchers because those with BABIP problems are weeded out in the minors. I don’t want to seem I’m completely relying on it.
Finally, yea, his K rate is down from ‘07; I can live with him not being quite as good as he was in ’06/’07.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
we're in agreement
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
SS and 3B
I’m too lazy to look them up, but over at Athleticsnation there was talk about Reds’ prospects in a potential trade.
Did you read that post?
They are suggesting Frazier/Valaika for Holliday and Orlando Cabrera…….ummm, not likely.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
I looked at it
like most trade proposals I didn’t expect much realism, but what I failed to communicate was that others look at the Reds system and see SS and 3B prospects that are desirable.
Yeah, that's a good point
They love Frazier (and Cozart to a lesser extent) and think both should get promoted now so they could possibly contribute in 2010.
I know I’ll get creamed for this, but I would love to see both get promoted now, and think about Cozart as the starting SS next year. We can possibly find a free agent LF, but we’re not going to get a good SS and Cozart might be able to do the job.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
I loved Frazier from the moment I saw him in spring training..i sure wouldn't let him get away,
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
I like that...
There are many other blocked prospects that I’d love to get my hands on as well as some guys that maybe getting labeled as AAAA-players that just a need a real shot.
Also, keep Harang.
This is not a game thread ergo no FAoftheGame from moi
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Harang and Stubbs to PHI
for Victorino and Jason Donald.
Throw in whatever it takes to make it work.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jul 23, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions
Even if
it’s Heisey.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jul 23, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
ATTENTION - FLORENCE FREEDOMITES - JUSTIN HAS CHANGED THE DATE TO AUG 8
The 8th works for me, Justin
But it may just be me and you…I was going to buy some tickets as pennance for dropping the ball..but no one is stepping forward…. so once again anyone wanting to go email me if you want your ticket paid for ( First 10 or 12 or so to email me wins) and sign up so Justin knows who’s gonna attend.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Harang
There comes a point where a player reaches his peak trade value. Hold on to it for nostalgic value does not make business sense unless you do not think baseball is a business. Harang had some bad luck and lack of run support is one thing that is often mentioned. However if you are great pitchers, you win those 1-0, 2-0 games. Loss of vertical movements in his fastball and sliders are obvious problems if they indeed are facts as evidenced by the drop in strikeouts. As a player, Harang has got to pitch wisely, blank out those bad luck thinkings because he is not on a pennant team and get that last fat pay cheque in 2011.
I disagree with the assumption that you always have to trade a player
which is what your first sentence implies. If the Reds aren’t competitive in 2010, trade Harang then if it’s so important to get something for him before free agency. His 2011 contract is an option, so his guaranteed money ends next season. The only reason you trade him this year is if you think you are going to get someone who is better for the team for next year. Otherwise, you’ll never convince me that the Reds aren’t a team that is always playing for 2 years from now.
Also, this sentence:
However if you are great pitchers, you win those 1-0, 2-0 games.is silly. Harang has no control over how many runs the offense puts on the board (outside of his own limited offensive impact). Blaming the pitcher because his team lost 1-0 or 2-0 is akin to blaming the sheep for the farmer having sex with it.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
the sheep was asking for it
Prancing around naked in front of men with needs. Can’t thread a moving needle!
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Reading this before reading its parent comment
Has been the highlight of my day this far. Thank you!
"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"
by Ash on Jul 24, 2009 8:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This = thus. Stoopid iPhone.
"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"
by Ash on Jul 24, 2009 8:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Apologies. I meant the second one.
…my day thus far.
Also, I’m a failure at mobile commenting thus far. :(
"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"
by Ash on Jul 24, 2009 10:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
try this again
Slyde,
do you have any data on Harang’s slider before and after his rain interrupted start.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 23, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
not at this moment I don't
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Guess who finally got his camera back? How many Red Reporters can you name?
Round 2 (difficulty: not all of the people are RR)
Lastly, I challenge anyone in my position that night to take a decent picture. The fact that everyone is right side up impresses the shit out of me.
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
i can pick out mads, bk, ash, and slyde.
Slyde looks too suburban to be hanging out with that rag tag group.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 24, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Slyde is in pic #1
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
An interesting if somewhat pensive Gray in picture one
looking wise beyond his years.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Mads looks so sad in both pictures
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jul 24, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude, I have an absolutely awesome picture of you
You have a third grade smile going on, it’s great.
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
Yeah, I think I saw that one at the game
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jul 24, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Good point.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jul 24, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I also had a premonition that before the ven was out I've go home Bobbleheadless
Which i did.
Not shot of BK looking fired up and ready to take on some Creepy BrewCrew Fans…
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Do we know the girl in the pink jacket in Round 2?
"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"
by Ash on Jul 24, 2009 8:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The one picking Chesirecat's nose?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
That one, yes.
He looks quite shocked, doesn’t he?
"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"
by Ash on Jul 24, 2009 9:16 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That lady was totally wasted and just jumped into the photo.
About five minutes before that photo was taken she was yelling at some dude because he didn’t ‘drink fast enough.’
Five minutes after that photo was taken she was gone.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 24, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah, just not very good light in the basement.
"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"
by Ash on Jul 25, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Holy Hell, almost forgot
"I'm going to become rich and famous after I invent a device that allows you to stab people in the face over the internet"
What a bunch of dicks
I think that the correct name for a group/flock of Brewer’s fans is: a Baggle of Bats…similiar in approach to say an exulatation of Larks without the grace and beauty of said Larks.
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
I love that you named that jpeg FUCKTARDS.
Highlight of my day so far.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 24, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Keep almost the whole staff intact
Our staff is not the reason we are losing! Just like last season in that Dunn was not the reason we were losing. We are losing because we have fucking fools running the show. I’m tired of the Reds being good at a part of the game and thinking the only way to get good at the other parts is to cut into what we are good at. A few years back we could really fucking rake, so instead of attempting to add cheap and servicable pitching/defense by dealing midlevel prospects, PTBNL’s, or $, we trade our starting SS and RF. Cutting into our offense so bad it has not since recovered. Fucking genius. Now we want to hit more so we are talking about trading our ace and our current number 2 (thats Bronson, as he has been great in the second half) to get some bats, which will probably weaken our staff so much we will once again have a terrible rotation. This is so fucking stupid.
I mean Bowden was a fucking moron with his fivetool guys but at least he tried to build on what the team was good at instead of turning them into something else. He added Vaughn in ‘99, which was the power bat we needed! This is unlike Walt. That ’99 team was very athletic and could play D. Pokey at 2B, Larkin at SS, Boone at 3B, and Cameron in CF. Bowden new this and built on it. He knew we needed servicable pitching so he opened up the revolving door rotation until some of the shit he flung at the wall stuck. This is unlike Walt and Dusty in that they stand by the first group of turds they throw at the wall even if they don’t stick time and time again. (This was also probably Bowden’s down fall with in Cincy and Washington when his ego got out of hand.)
With our staff and a team of Bruce, Votto, Stubbs, EdE, and Phillips, with above average defense at every other position, even if they had below average bats, we could have won the division this year. The thing is there isn’t much room for error. Injuries hurt us but I would venture a guess that our terrible choices in replacing those injured guys and starting the season with AGon, Willy and Darnell is what cost us. I would have much rather seen us working the PTBNL trade circles adding AAAA player, after AAAA player trying to find just one guy to stick. (Fuck why didn’t we claim Marte from Cle when he was designated. Above average glove at 3B and it seems like he has figured something out at the plate. I bet he sticks in Cle at 3B this year or next and he is just as good as EdE).
Instead of opening up to new guys we stuck with the crap and now our season is over in July. Again.
I think we could win with what we have. We need to start the callups now and get our prospects ready to succeed in the majors. I feel that Votto being called up late in the year is the reason he was ready to succeed early on in 08.
So any way. The guys I’d be willing to deal are Weathers, Rhodes (I think we can get a solid return) and Owings. Those three guys are all very replaceable. However if I felt the need to add a big bat now I’d talk to teams with emerging prospects and dangle Homer and Wood and Maloney and other prospects in a package trying to add that one piece. A Gamel/Laporta/Logan Morrison/Moustakas/Snider type player would put us so far over the top (if we had a decent manager) that we would become an organization ready to succeed.
The truth is, if we are committed to winning we need to fire Dusty.
Buy/Sell?
There is no way the Reds should buy or sell at this point. Just stand pat and wait it out for the rest of the year. The division is not winnable with this lineup and even a big bopper in left wouldn’t guarantee it. Too many teams to climb and not enough talent. Harang has been bad since Dusty through him in SD last year in tha extra inning game. Remember? You just have to keep throwing those guys out there including Bailey. Let them learn and just deal with it. Another losing season is imminent.
I kinda agree with standing pat
Walt should definitely be in every trade deadline discussion (as you know he will be), but I’m not sure he should be actively trying to buy or sell.
Let the rosters expand and the newer guys play in September. Of course, Dusty will probably invoke “the integrity of the division races” argument again in order to justify sitting every dude they bring up in favor of Willy Taveras.
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Jul 24, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
MM
Do you still use your yahoo address? I just sent you an e-mail there, but I’m not sure if you’ve finally jumped to gmail.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
no, i still use that address
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Jul 24, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Cards are probably geting Holliday
Looks like they are giving up their #1 and #5 best prospects, plus a 21 year old OF OPSing almost .800 in high A ball this year.
The key to the deal is Brett Wallace, who was ranked the 21st best prospect in baseball by BA recently.
This would kind of be like us giving up Alonso, Matt Maloney, and a Sarasota kid for 2 months of Holliday.
The deal hasn’t gone through yet, but if it does, I’d say the Cards got fleeced.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
How does trading Harang improve the team?
Harang has made 20 starts this season. In 14 of them he has allowed 3 or fewer runs. In fact, in those 14 starts he is 5-4 and is averaging 6+2/3IP, 6H, 2.21ERA, 6K, 2BB. He eats innings and anchors the staff.
Who is going to give the Reds those 14 quality starts (to this point) next year? I promise you it’s not Homer Bailey, I guarantee it’s not anyone on the farm, and there is NO CHANCE that the Reds could pay or attract a free agent starter of Harang’s quality in the off season.
Trading Harang would be terribly misguided.
by pennant_elimination_fever on Jul 24, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions
I think Harang challenges the best hitters more than he used to and that's why he's sucked.
He started believing in his own ability too much and now he won’t pitch around guys. He lays it up there and demands he gets beat or else the batter will fail. Balsy, but it ain’t working. Too many HR’s as a result. That’s my perspective. 100 k’s, 25 bb’s. That looks really nice but c’mon, be smart not stupid. Win, don’t lose. Stay, don’t go, etc.
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