"First half" review, with lots of opinions and a few numbers.

by sidnancy on Jul 13, 2009 4:37 PM EDT Comment 47 comments

Well, it’s the "half-way" point (although anyone with simple math skills knows that was really a week ago), and it’s been somewhat frustrating. Going into the season I figured we’d be about a .500 team, so in that context I’m not really surprised. The way we’ve gotten here, though, is:

1. Willy Taveras. No one in the majors with more than 145 AB at lead-off has a lower OPS than Willy’s .589, yet he has 252 AB there. Only Jimmy Rollins’s .275 OBP is lower than Willy’s .288 among such hitters.

2. Jerry Hairston, Jr/Alex Gonzalez/Paul Janish: Hairston’s been a slightly better hitter among the three, but Janish (according to UZR) has been a much better defender than either (and he’s been a better hitter than Gonzalez); enough better, in fact, that fangraphs thinks he’s been worth $1.1M while the other two have negative value. Guess who’s not getting any playing time, and will get sent down once AGon gets back?

3. Jonny Gomes/Laynce Nix: Why is this not the normal LF platoon?

4. Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan: One has an OPS of .693, has thrown out 34% of baserunners (career 30%) and was termed the "first half MVP"; the other has an OPS of .836, throwing out 44% of runners (39% career) and has been watching a bunch of games.

None of those things are the fault of the players, though; that goes on the back of ….

5. Dusty Baker: Batting lineups that put Taveras and/or Hairston at the top (the Reds are 30th in OPS and 29th OBP in all of baseball from lead-off and 27th/28th from the 2 hole); hitting BP 4th; hitting Hernandez 4th (the Reds are 10th in the NL from the clean-up spot): Jay Bruce having zero protection in the lineup; Janish and Hannigan with their pictures on milk cartons; not rescuing hitters before they get tossed by the umpire….the list goes on and on. I have completely and utterly lost all respect of Baker as a manager.

Other frustrations:

6. The struggles of Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion: Bruce is still young, but he obviously needs help. EdE played with a broken wrist that everyone evidently missed; have you noticed his OPS is 360 points higher after his DL stint than before? That being said, he has to start playing much better defense.

7. The rotation: Harang and Arroyo have struggled, which really throws things off. Volquez’s injury certainly doesn’t help

On the other hand, there have been some surprises:

1. Joey Votto: I heart Joey. While he doesn’t have the HR power you want from a 1B, he’s still 3rd in baseball among 1B in OPS (and 4th overall).

2. The bullpen: 3rd in the NL in ERA.

3. Homer Bailey: He has a 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP since his return to the rotation. Just maybe…

4. The afore mentioned Hanigan: What else does he need to do to see PAs?

5. Chris Dickerson: While his SLG doesn’t approach last year’s, who’d have thought he could get on base at a .370 clip?

All in all, I’m really tired of this team right now. Again, generally it’s not the players’ fault; Dusty has clearly better alternatives than Taveras and Hernandez, yet refuses to play them.

Then, to compound the problem, he puts those players in places in the batting order where they can really kill the offense. Meanwhile, until and unless the top of the rotation performs better, it won't really matter.

In other words, the frustration is likely to continue.

2 recs | Comment 47 comments

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Word.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You really think

Janish will be sent down? He made the roster out of spring training.

I think Rosales will go first, and then a pitcher.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jul 13, 2009 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're probably right

Janish carves good chewing sticks out of broken bats during each game in the clubhouse.

by Brian B on Jul 13, 2009 8:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

And

he’s a bullpen catcher and the disaster relief pitcher.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jul 13, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ahem

Disastrous relief pitcher.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The bullpen worries me

There’s a lot of guys outperforming reasonable expectations, though some of the ERAs have ballooned in the past week or two. It’s gonna hurt if they continue to slide.

by ken on Jul 13, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

bullpen last year

Last year’s bullpen performed pretty well, too. I wouldn’t count on Cordero’s save rate to be as high as it was in the first half, but overall the bullpen – if folks aren’t traded – should hold pretty steady.

by rojosoto on Jul 14, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dusty Baker hearts Tavares

Enuff said.

I guess he reminds him of Patterson. Criminy sakes!!!!

by Dude Rock on Jul 13, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

its a frustating organization

the Reds make one solid move but then match it with a Taveras signing. Willie is one of the few players that can approach a Corey Patterson futility level. And in truth – I really believe Corey is a better all-round player than Willie.
How could they not just play Dickerson in CF this year. If he doesnt work out you have Drew Stubbs for a summer call-up. The Taveras signing as already cost the Reds 2 games in the first half.
Now in a similar situation the Reds will not give Hannigan the playing time he deserves.
I am pretty optimistic about the LF platoon in the 2nd half Nix/Gomes. Nix has had a solid 1st half with exceptional defense in LF and Gomes is over 400 wOBA.
The Reds didnt get the breakout year that I believe they needed from Bruce to get close to 90 wins- but with some very simple moves with their existing players- this club should be north of 500 this year.

by davidmac84 on Jul 13, 2009 11:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes it is........

Low OBP from your leadoff hitter – low batting average – bad signing of Tavares……and bad move by the manager and management (for allowing the manager to continue to put him in the lineup) continuing to play the guy. They made a bad signing, they should eat it.

Bruce is not the player we’d hoped he’d be. In fact, his offensive struggles have severely hampered this team.

Phillips has been a pleasant offensive surprise (50+ rbi’s), but has failed to take the leadership role he so craves.

Management did not plan very well for SS. AGon was coming off injury, and not just last year, but the last few years hasn’t played much.

EE’s injury was unexpected, but we’ve all been disappointed in EE for awhile now.

Hanigan outplays Hernandez, but Dusty refuses to play him more often? More bad managing.

When the pitching was excellent, the offense sucked.

Dickerson makes highlight reel catches in CF, but Tavares gets the nod. Hmmmm. Dickerson is hitting far better than Tavares, but Tavares gets the nod.

Clearly this team should be built around Votto and Phillips. Bruce has taken himself out of that equation for the time-being.

Clearly this team wins a few more games had Tavares not been signed, Dickerson was playing every game in CF, and Bruce hits even .250 with an OBP around .325 atleast.

by Dude Rock on Jul 14, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

EE – been disappointed with his defense. Offensively, he’s been just fine the past three years, outhitting “centerpiece” Phillips for 2 of the past 3 years.

Dickerson – Not only does Taveras get the nod, but Baker has repeatedly thrown C-Dick under the bus this past week for the inside the park HR misplay by Taveras.

by rojosoto on Jul 14, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hold your horses here

(I’m going to reply to satements from both davidmac84 and Dude Rock here)

I really believe Corey is a better all-round player than Willie.
As bad as Willy has been, you seem to forget Patterson’s .238 OBP from last year. Also, while Patterson was merely average by UZR (.07 r/150 games), Taveras has been very good (3.7).

The Taveras signing as already cost the Reds 2 games in the first half.
According to fangraphs, Taveras has cost the Reds 2 runs in the 1st half, or .2 games.

Bruce is not the player we’d hoped he’d be. In fact, his offensive struggles have severely hampered this team.
While he’s struggled mightily, remember two things: 1. He’s only 22; most guys his age are still in the low minors (he’s 6th youngest in the NL). 2. His defense has more than made up for his offense so far – overall, he’s a win above replacement. Not a star, but he’s hardly “hampering” the team.

Phillips has been a pleasant offensive surprise (50+ rbi’s)
BP has been hitting clean-up the entire year, mostly behind the only guy in the lineup getting on base. You need much better than a 110 OPS+ from the clean-up hitter.

we’ve all been disappointed in EE for awhile now.
I don’t think this is true. He’s hit very well until the undiagnosed wrist injury; even with his defense, he’s been 16-21 runs above replacement each of the last 3 years.

When the pitching was excellent, the offense sucked.
Thru the first 66 games, the Reds scored 4.2 r/g and allowed 4.26; since then they’ve scored only 3.76 and allowed 5.9 The offense was, unfortunately, relatively good when the pitching also was.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Taveras

is (.2) WAR – if the Reds had a replacement level CF they are down 2 Runs.
The obvious CF- Dickerson is 1.5 WAR with less than full time PA. And he has been signficantly better both in defensive and offense when he has played CF. So the Willie signing cost them probably around 2 games in the 1st half and close to 1.5 million dollars(so far).
on the 2009 Projections- Patterson was .295/ Taveras .305- about 7 run difference on 600 PA- defense for career Patterson is slightly better/ last 2 years Taveras is slightly better. I think the defense is a wash- Taveras covers more ground- but in reads Patterson was better.
The one other caveat with Taveras since so much of his value is tied to his speed- I would posit he will not age well and his projections are optimistic which so far as been correct this year when he is clocking in at a .271 wOBA.
But the larger point is the Reds had a slam dunk 3-4 win improvement just by replacing Patterson with Dickerson and they spent over 6 million dollars to make sure that improvement didnt happen.

by davidmac84 on Jul 14, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ehhh....

First, there was no reason to expect Dickerson to hit as well this year as he has. Sure, he hit well last year, but his minor league numbers did not portend anything near what he’s done. ZiPS, for instance, figured him for a .730 OPS this year.

Second, much like Patterson last year, Taveras has severely underperformed his projections – ZiPS had him at about .649 OPS, compared to his actual .595. For reference, Patterson projected this year to a very similar .657, but has 15 PA and an OPS of .266; he’s currently in the minors.

So Dickerson has played better than expected, Taveras much worse, and even at that, the difference (according to fangraphs) is just 1.3 wins above replacement – that’s 2 wins for the year, not “so far”. It wasn’t a “slam dunk” that Dickerson is a better choice – I’ll go on record as saying he isn’t as good in CF as his UZR shows (sample size).

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

all this may be true

but when a half season shows you two players, one playing much, much better than the other, it is the manager’s job to change things accordingly.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 14, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't agree more...

The game is played on the field and in the dugout, not on calculators and in theories.

How can you possibly reference “full year” estimates for Dickerson when he’s never played more than a handful of MLB games? Impossible. Taveras was a known quantity…albeit, a known DECLINING quantity who had been runner up for ROY and still been un-wanted by 2 previous organizations…sounds to me like he’s worthy of $6mill over multiple years. BLEH.

For me, it’d be one thing if in the offseason Jock-er-ty had gone public and said “We’re seeking a light-hitting, sometimes non-hitting, should-have-run-track-in-high-school CF’r to block our former 1st round pick,” so I could at least see his logic. Instead, he said we were looking for a “RH corner outfield bat with some pop,” and we landed Taveras. T-virus could be hitting .275/.335obp and would still be a disappointment given what the fans were told we were looking for.

Front office failure on 2 fronts: didn’t get what they claimed they were looking for, and got worse at a position (CF) where they were already terrible/uknown.

Bleh, bleh, bleh. Puke in my mouth, volume 15 with the Reds. Where’s Jeff Treadway when you need him?

Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jul 14, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

Look at my intro – I think playing Taveras, especially hitting him at the top of the order, has hurt this team. What I was addressing, though, are the statements that (1) “Corey is a better all-round player than Willie” and (2) Taveras has “cost the Reds 2 wins”. Neither of these statements seem true.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually cost more than 2 games this year

I think he is about the same player as Patterson- maybe slightly better I will give you that.

by davidmac84 on Jul 14, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

so Taveras has only cost the team 0.2 wins so far this year with his play. but what i think d-mac is getting at is that the team has missed out on 2+ wins by playing Taveras over Dickerson. so it doesnt fall on Taveras’ head, but rather on Dusty’s.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 14, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he made 2 mistakes

he took a negative .2 and positive 1.5 and came up with a difference of 1.3. According to my calculation the correct answer is 1.7.
Also if we could magically make Taveras vanish and give Dickerson the full time CF job is PA would increase about 30% which would increase is WAR to around the the 2 WAR level season to date.
Taveras has underperformed expectations but I dont think that is unusual for a player that derives almost all his value from his speed. Or to put it simply a player that has no ability to either draw a walk or drive the ball- is going to have to have an unbelievable amount of infield hits to be above a replacement level player.

by davidmac84 on Jul 14, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops.

he took a negative .2 and positive 1.5 and came up with a difference of 1.3. According to my calculation the correct answer is 1.7.
You are correct.

However, I think that you’re wrong to assume that Dickerson would, with increased playing time, continue to be the best defensive CF in baseball. I also disagree with your statement “Taveras has underperformed expectations but I dont think that is unusual for a player that derives almost all his value from his speed” – if it’s true, then the projection systems are wrongly modelled, and I find it hard to believe that every one of them misses this.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For clarity

…that Dickerson would continue to be the best full time CF in baseball.

Other CFs have a higher UZR/150, but in much more limited play; Dickerson’s is higher than anyone with over 58 innings in CF.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Dickerson defense and think he is

definitely superior to Taveras- but I would agree not as good as the numbers show right now. Lets call the defensive difference between CDick and Taveras 5 runs.
Offense- Taveras reasonable expectation around 300 wOBA/ Dickerson around 330 wOBA- so 650 PA works out to be around 17 runs.
So the reasonable numbers come out close to what you expected CDick is around 2 games better than Tavers rather than the “real” performance so far this year which is closer to 4 games.
But I would say with a player with Taveras skill there is very little upside potential and a ton of down side risk.
And you know you hate the Taveras signing also- you are just being a rascally contrarian.

by davidmac84 on Jul 14, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't use UZR/150 unless you are trying to balance two players with close but not exact playing time

say, someone with 1000 innings and someone with 900 innings. Otherwise you will always get distorted numbers for someone with minimal playing time at a position.

And a 2.0 WAR wouldn’t barely put Dickerson in the top 10 in CF in the NL.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

But if we’re trying to guess what Dickerson would do with more playing time, it’s being said he’d still perform at the same level. All I’m saying is that more playing time in CF would likely not be the same quality as it has been so far.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be surprised if every one "misses this"

but not because they miss it as much as they have a hard time pinning down the cut off for a player. Which players derive their value from speed and which don’t? Who gets labeled with what? PECOTA tries to do that and the same with ZiPS I believe, but I’m not sure if any system properly accounts for any player that is at the extreme for any style.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which begs the question...

Taveras may be extreme in our minds, but is he much more extreme than Vince Coleman or Ozzie Smith? Or even the “good” Brian Hunter?

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Jul 14, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

probably not

but being similar to 20 players in history is a lot harder to project than someone who is similar to 50 players in history. The farther you are from the norm, the more regression misses on you.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dickerson expectations

Obviously, no one expected him to repeat what he did in a small sample last year.

However, I also believe you can’t just take the average of his minor league numbers as a projection for how he’ll hit in the majors. From advanced A-ball to AAA, his numbers improved at each level. He had over 700 AAA at-bats, and he’s currently posting a similar MLB AVG & OBP w/lower SLG than he did in those two years in AAA. I don’t think he’s putting up unrealistic numbers now. In fact, he’s had years in the past with XBH/AB ratio greater than 10%, so it’s possible there’s more ML power in the tank for him.

A+ .236avg/.325obp/.383slg
AA .249/.349/.408
AAA .273/.372/.457

2009 .277/.370/.385

by rojosoto on Jul 14, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dickerson performance is perfectly inline with projections

wOBA is what is used to calculate runs and then wins so the OPS projections is not relevant. Dickerson’s ZIP projection wOBA 329 Oliver 329 Marcel 369 Chone 333 James 361- actual performance 337. You can get much closer match between the projections and performance.
Taveras as been worse and I would expect him to have a beter 2nd half.
Not sure how you are calculating the win values but in the 1st half Taveras is (.2) on 315 Plate Appearances/ Dickerson is 1.5 229 plate appearances. The WAR stat on fangraphs is a counting stat not a rate state- so if you assigned a full time starter position the difference would actually be greater than 2 games for the 1st half.

by davidmac84 on Jul 14, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

CS

I quit counting after April, but there were 5 CS that were credited to Hernandez where he didn’t touch the ball. I noticed this in Hernandez’s stats early in the year because it seemed to be happening a lot….if a player was picked off 1st base, it didn’t count as a CS, but if the runner was caught in a rundown (or broke for 2nd on the pickoff throw), then it went in the book as a CS. Games I noticed this were
Opening Day vs Mets
Games 4&5 vs Pirates
Game 15 vs Cubs
Game 24 vs Pirates

That drops Hernandez to 26% for the year.
20% in 2008
23% in 2007

To go along with OPS of
2007 – 715
2008 – 714
2009 – 693

by rojosoto on Jul 14, 2009 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One more comment re: #3

Gomes/Nix – why wasn’t that the opening day platoon?

by rojosoto on Jul 14, 2009 9:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dickerson was the starter on Opening Day

and most people were fine with that.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Darnell!

Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,

by 'tHan on Jul 14, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh shit, that's right....

I forgot that Darnell started because Taveras was hurt and Hairston started in LF because Santana is left-handed.

So, I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t really follow the Reds that closely.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jul 14, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no worries mate

Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,

by 'tHan on Jul 14, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

crooked halo'd

"I piss excellence"

by obc2 on Jul 14, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

at least we haven’t had to worry about the bullpen too much. they’d been lights out until about a week ago. weathers is searching a little more lately but i bet we could trade him and rhodes for some young talent (if it gets to that point by the deadline).

on baker… i see where he’s coming from on a lot of the logic he uses when crafting his lineup, but does he have to think about it so damn hard? why can’t he just build it without worrying about who he’ll piss off? hanigan would be great in the 2 spot, would he not? votto is a prototypical 3-hole hitter, but would it kill him to swap spots with phillips for a week? loyalty is nice when you’re in a management position, but at some point you have to wonder how things would be if you bench a guy and shuffle things up for longer than 1 game… come on, baker.

by GrooveLeg on Jul 14, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dusty is old old school

He has a formula and is trying to cram square pegs into round holes. I don’t think he thinks too hard, he just isn’t capable of thinking out fresh scenarios.

Votto is the typical 3# hitter, true but I think he’d be even greater in the #4 spot. But BP is a terrible choice for the 3 hole. Right now there isn’t another acceptable candidate to bat 3rd. Maybe Hanigan but he doesn’t play. Hany gets hits, get on base…could keep an inning going for the big guys.

How about:
C-Dick CF
Jerry Jr. SS
Hanigan C
Votto 1B
BP 2B
Gomes LF
Nix RF
EdE 3b
P.

This is a slower line up but you don’t lose anything with Nix LF, you gain with C-Dick on Center and if Gomes plays every day, well we know he can hit. I have no problem with having a couple of long ballers hitting at the bottom of the line up…I wish that dusty’d go with this line up for about a week u=just to see what happens.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Jul 14, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm tired of Cherry Hudson

Bench him – he is a bench-utility player. quit playing him so much.

This my lineup:
Dickerson – CF
Phillips – 2B
Votto – 1B
Gomes – RF
Nix – LF
Hanigan – C
Edwin – 3B
Janish – SS
Pitcher

Phillips is not a 4-hitter. We don’t have one. The closest we have is Gomes or Hernandez/Hanigan. Wouldn’t it be nice to have Dickerson and Philips on base with Votto up. Think about it.

Now think about having a stud righty on deck. Can we get a right-handed slugger Walt? Rolen, Holliday. Somebody.

by CBJMarty on Jul 14, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

umm

That being said, he has to start playing much better defense.

I have not seen every moment of every game since he returned, perhaps someone else has. But I honestly do not think he has screwed one play up.

by Colin Auscapee on Jul 14, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans

by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 14, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs