Question of the Night: What Type of Deal Should the Reds Make?
by Slyde on Jul 12, 2009 10:07 PM EDT
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PrintThe Reds head into the All Star break in 5th place, but only 4.5 games out of first place in the division. Then again, they are only 4.5 games out of last place as well. They are just 16-25 since the start of Memorial Day Weekend. They've given up an average of 5 runs per game in those 41 games while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. Suffice it to say, they haven't been playing very good baseball.
And now Jay Bruce is probably out for the season, not that he was doing much at the plate lately anyway.
Johnny Cueto has seen his ERA rise nearly a run and a half over his last 5 starts.
There still is no clear date for when Edinson Volquez is expected back from the DL.
Bronson Arroyo hasn't had a whole lot of the tiger eyes lately.
The first & second hitters in the lineup on the season have combined for a .293 OBP, which is why despite driving in 21% of the runners on base in front of him, Joey Votto has just 42 RBI in 56 games played.
Right about now, there are very few bright spots for the Reds. So, what should they do?
My opinion is that they don't have enough to compete this year, so why waste prospects in a trade just to get marginally better? I felt like their best opportunity was for Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion to get hot and then for the Reds to add another bat via trade to solidify the offense. Now that Bruce is out, they really need to acquire two bats, and I don't know that there are two bats out there that are good enough and are available.
So, what I'd do is shop some of the vets around. I'd deal David Weathers or Arthur Rhodes for any young outfielder with signs of a good bat or a young shortstop with a good glove. I'd deal Bronson Arroyo for anything resembling a prospect and some minor league fodder. Get his salary off of the books and try to find some offense in the off-season.
I wouldn't deal Aaron Harang unless the deal brought back a top of the line prospect. Even then, I'd be very hesitant. I know it seems like this team has pitching depth, but it is very, very fragile and there is nothing about Harang's game that makes me believe he can't be at least a #3 quality starter over the next two seasons.
I'd also shop around players like Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes. I'm not sure what they could get in return, but perhaps they can manage to steal a hidden prospect from someone. I don't think either player is in the Reds long-term plans, so why hold onto them if there is a deal out there.
This is not to say that I want a firesale. I probably wouldn't deal both Weathers and Rhodes unless they were deals I couldn't pass up. If I'm Walt Jocketty, I'm not shopping Harang, but I sure as hell am listening to offers (somebody's going to get their hearts broken in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, and Jocketty might be able to fleece the losers). It is still mandatory that the Reds are winners in 2010. I'm not sitting here with my fingers crossed hoping that they'll build a winner. They have no choice as far as I'm concerned. They must win in 2010 or I'm done. Taking advantage of a couple of deals where they trade off veterans could open that door. Plus, freeing up some salary cap might help to actually acquire the number one priority next winter, which I'm guessing will still be a right-handed bat.
What do you think? Do you agree or are you tired of waiting? Should the Reds be buyers or sellers over the next two weeks?
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I'm a buyer
all the way. Even if they do not think they can win this year, they have enough pieces of the puzzle to put it together for next year. I would not trade away anyone for the sake of shedding payroll. If I make a trade, it is for the sole purpose of adding someone better than what we already have; to improve this year and next.
I want Arroyo off the books,
and I’d like to deal Weathers as well. Dude’s old, and I wonder about his ability to be effective throughout the whole season given his age.
Also, just for the record, Arroyo has, in fact, had his tiger eyes lately, he just never let’s you see ’em, never.
He sits alone...Reds are not home.
Yea I'm with you for the most part
Weathers is probably at peak trade value, though I’m sure he doesn’t get much in return. I’ve really liked the trades Jocketty’s made in his limited time in Cincinnati, though I expected the Dunn trade would be patched up much better. Maybe Arroyo will have another CG SHO and we can get a decent prospect and some salary cut. I think his mercurial nature and off-season surgery might make some clubs pretty hesitant.
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
we discussed this Wed
i think Dunn’s expiring contract for Owings (a #4 stater/PH) and Lefty smurfy (loogy) and Dallas (AA batting tee) Buck was a good return.
"I piss excellence"
Lefty Smurf came over in the Volquez deal
also, Adam Rosales sucks.
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 12, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
auserious
whooooooooooo! Sucks?? Do You know him?? Give these guys a break!!
The internet was invented so that MIT professors could exchange data sets and anonymously rip on strangers
I might respectfully suggest that you’re a little too close to the situation. As negative as you’re claiming we are, you’re not the most objective when it comes to analyzing Adam’s skills as a baseball player. I’m certain he’s a wonderful person, and I don’t believe anyone has claimed otherwise. And we would love it if he managed to hit .285 with some power, and field balls cleanly. But in his time here, he hasn’t done that, and so we gripe. Other players have underperformed, and we gripe at them too. It happens, and it’s not likely to stop happening.
This might bother you, but it’s the nature of our site.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
We got Wilkin from Arizona right?
I think it was a good trade if they thought they weren’t going to re-sign Dunn (even if they wanted to). I just expected the absence of Dunn’s salary to translate to a better replacement than Nix-McDonald-Gomes.
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Dollar for dollar
I’d rather have Dunn, although the idea that the hydra you mentioned above is superior to him has brought me more entertainment, for a longer period of time, than any Reds LF has this season
Dunn was an addition by subtraction
the entire front office is in full agreement with this.
he just might be the modern day Dave Kingman.
"I piss excellence"
The "entire front office"
Do you read minds or can you point to anything documented which documents this? You’d think a guy with a VORP of 15.9 (good for second on the Reds) would be an addition in a pathetic line-up.
its all off the record, off course
not reading minds, bro, i’ve had multiple first person conversations.
Dunn’s stats are great for a last place team.
"I piss excellence"
He doesn't know how to win.
Which then rubs off on the pitchers, who don’t run out to their positions and therefore give up more runs.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
He runs a pretty slow "home run trot"
as compared to Adam Rosales. Delays the game and the team gets off its “rythm” and “consistency.”
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
auserious
What the hell do you know about Adam Rosales really????
Ok
I feel like I need to address this. Nobody’s saying that Adam Rosales isn’t a wonderful guy. You have to realize that our view of Adam is through a fan’s perspective. We see what happens on the field, and maybe a sound bite or a blurb from an interview from the beat writers. That’s it. None of us know him personally, and nobody here’s attacking him personally.
That being said, what we’ve seen as fans is a guy who tries really hard and hustles, but has for the most part struggled with the big league club. No one’s doubting his heart, or that he tries really hard to do what he loves as a profession. But when we see him put on his Reds cap and look overmatched at the plate and boot grounders at third, we see him as a guy who’s not really helping our team right now. And since we’re Reds fans who want to see the team win, our view of him is skewed accordingly. As Brendan said above (in the middle of my writing this), if he comes up and hits well, and is able to contribute to a winning team, great. I’ll cheer for him as long as he’s wearing Red and helping the team. But until that happens, you’re going to see a lot of the opinions you’ve been seeing. I’m sure it’s frustrating to see things from your point of view, but you have to see where we’re coming from too.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jul 13, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
A: Always, B: Be, C: Closing
Nice guy? I don’t give a s—-. Good father. F—- you, go home and play with your kids. You want to work here, close.
Appreciate the sentiment
But in Cincinnati it’s Always Be Choking.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't you have to be in contention to start with, in order to choke?
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Jul 13, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If it's a point of contention, as you say
I always put the lawnmower in choke before starting it.
So there.
by Brian B on Jul 14, 2009 10:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Isn't this the same front office who signed Willy Taveras to a two-year deal?
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
small sample size'd
how’s Masset for Junya looking? and Hernandez for Freel? and the RR nation seems to love the past two amateur drafts….
"I piss excellence"
I'm not trying to disqualify the front office's opinion entirely.
I’m just saying that it’s perfectly likely for them to have an opinion which I think stinks. I don’t think citing front office opinion is all that useful when dealing with an established player who we’ve all seen play for over six years.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
obc2 Is 100% Correct!
The Krivsky front office desperately tried to deal Dunn at the deadline in 2007 and found he had zero market. Zilch, Nada. None.
Then, the Jocketty front office, with essentially the same people from Krivsky’s reign, made the exact determination: they had to get Dunn out of the clubhouse and away from impressionable young players.
It’s not that Dunn was poisonous or a bad guy, but he isn’t a worker, he doesn’t take the game seriously and after Junior was traded Dunn sulked, pouted, moped and said things outloud where everyone could hear like, “Guess I’m the next one to get run out of town,” and “When’s my ticket getting punched?”
The players like Dunn. He’s an affable guy and a lot of fun. But respect as a player? Let’s just say the words of J.P. Ricciardi last year about Dunn were dead-red accurate sentiments across most MLB scouting departments and front offices, and some players, too, including a few currently on the team.
It's a sad state
but all by way of saying I’m optomistic about Jocketty’s trading capabilities. We got Masset and Richar for Griffey. Masset’s been rock solid and Richar has played well enough at AAA to make him a cut above just minor league fodder. Ramon for Freel worked out like a dream, though it’s now time to cash in on our surplus.
The Dunn trade was the most suspect one, but for reasons already cited it went as well as could be expected.
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I will probably be the only idiot who posts this
But if Ricciardi REALLY wants to get rid of Halladay and a bad contract, I’d take Halladay and Rios off his hands in a hot second.
And the second bat you’re looking for is in Oakland….Holliday needs to re-establish his power numbers in the NL. GABP is where he should be getting that done.
All for bags of magic beans. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Might as well think big, because nothing is going to happen anyways. Remember, we’re the Reds….we’re only allowed to look through the glass at the feast, not to actually join in or anything.
"I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball" - Pete Rose
by Officer Dibble on Jul 12, 2009 10:28 PM EDT reply actions
sell, Mortimer, sell
holes at SS, LF and CF.
Weathers and Rhodes wont be contributors when the Reds compete in 2011. I’d say move Arroyo, Coco and Harang if the right deal presents itself. I think Wood will be ready by that date and Homer has arrived. Pair that duo with Johnny, Volquez, Owings and Maloney and thats a good rotation.
I agree with moving Nix and Gomes also. But I dont think there will be enough interest to really warrant trades. I can’t see getting much value in return.
The key is to develop a quality lineup and pen next decade. It can be done.
"I piss excellence"
but as we have seen all it takes is two injuries and the rotation is in flux
alla Volquez and Arroyo/Cueto.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jul 12, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Sellers
anyone on the big club not named Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, or Bailey should be considered fair game.
I also would not trade Edwin at this time, as his perceived value is a lot lower than his actual value. But, if the right offer really comes along, they should take it. That is me being totally objective, because ya’ll know the prospect of him departing makes me so sad.
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 12, 2009 10:46 PM EDT reply actions
I considered putting his name on the list
but I think I would listen, at least.
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 12, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
ya gotta listen
i dont think he is untouchable, but i dont think he’s going anywhere.
"I piss excellence"
We've been playing for 2010 for three years now
No reason to abandon that now. Simply put, make deals to make your team win the whole damn thing next year. If you have a player you can acquire that can contribute to next year’s team, get him. If you have a prospect in the minors you want playing a major role in next year’s team (cough Stubbs cough), make room for him and put him in the best position to contribute. Actually have a little foresight for once and build a team long-term, instead of throwing shit together at the last minute like they always do. It’s time for Bob, Walt, Dusty, and whoever to sit down and figure this shit out and COME UP WITH A PLAN.
It’s pretty easy. If you don’t think David Weathers helps your team next year, get rid of him. Are you content with Danny Ray as your LOOGY? Arthur Rhodes is expendable. Don’t think Bronson can cut it in the rotation? Trade him now and pick up a free agent in the offseason. Get pieces to help next year’s team. The young talent is finally here to be able to do something, go out and get it the fuck done.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
I agree...
But we need to win NEXT YEAR. No later. Get the hell rid of Weathers. If you can manage to sell Arroyo, unload him- But only if you can get somebody decent. And yeah, while Rhodes has some pretty good trade value, no reason not to see if we can’t pick somebody up for him.
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
Yes, well said
It’s not an either/or… buy or sell.
It’s “Don’t rent and don’t mortgage” — meaning don’t do something stupid like trade for Holliday or trade away Bailey. Use your wiles to start sculpting next years team (which I hope to God they’ve already realized).
One of each of the following should be shopped and traded for a fair return:
- Weathers or Rhodes
- Arroyo or Harang (I don’t like trading Harang at all, but there’s probably a good deal out there)
- Nix or Gomes (preferably Nix, I’d honestly like to have Gomes here next year)
- Hernandez
- Cordero or Masset or Roenicke (Trade one, the other two become the new late innings crew)
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree w/obc - - - sell sell sell and buy buy buy too and develop as much as you can as quickly as you can.
I think Cueto’s going to be oK
Who knows about Voltron, but I’d keep him
Bailey looks very good
Micah is an acceptable #5
I’d trade Harang ( He is just not the pitcher he used to be, methinks he’s toast) and or Bronson if anyone is that interested…hopefully for a vet. bat – Holliday is possible, but he would have to be signed.
Weathers should also be moved…I like him but he’s uncessesary – Mike Lincoln can go too…
I would play Nix in RF, Gomes in LF and C-Dick as CF lead-off.
Gonzo and EdE don’t excite me much, but I’d consider hanging on to Edwin (See Colin’s thoughts)…Gonzales gotta go. Wily Taveris might actually fectch a prospect froma centender who needs a 4th OF.
Every team has to deal with injuries look at the Phils…every team has years whe they don’t have the greatest offensive line upes look at St. Louis…
I strongly believe that the best thing for the Reds to do to get back to a winning program is to immediately start looking for a young fresh manager and say good-bye to Dusty and Dick and Brook.
The only prospect that really excites me as having potential to get to the majors soon is Todd Frazier..
With Bruce hurt, Harang out to luch, Voltron hurt, Bronson or Bronoff (snicker), Gonzo hurt again…this year is pretty much a washout…only big bold moves can save it and Dusty can’t operate in that kind of pro-creative environment.
Sorry if this is too rambling but its past Mads bed time
Plus I could use another Corona,
One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin
Sell
Like a lot of you have said 2010 should be our goal. I’d try to move Arroyo and Weathers. Also there might be some interest in Ramon Hernandez. Clearing salary for a big right handed bat singing in the offseason should be our priority.
I can sing, and I got some sock!
Shit, would you believe a double?
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 12, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
he wants to be Bo Derek
when he grows up.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
There are three teams i’d like to see the Reds call…
- Athletics..I’ve been on the go-for-holiday bus since he arrived in Oakland, but I’m not interested in renting him for a couple months just to see him go, leaving us vacant of prospects and a twenty on the nightstand..even without him i wouldn’t mind them enquiring about Crosby and Wuertz…i think both would help out , and it wouldn’t take a ton to get them…
#2-Rockies..not sure where they stand in the market, but they seem to have plenty to shop with…Atkins would provide some pop, but I dunno how i feel about him at third and i’m happying with our 1B…I think going after one of their many middle infielders would be nice…Obviously we can’t afford Tulo, but I’d take Stewart, Barmes as SS over A-Gonz any day…maybe talk them out of C. Gonzalez while were at it and who knows
Okay i said 3 but I can’t decide and I’m short on time so i’ll throw these out there
Could we pry under acheiving Matthews away from LAA? Once healthy they’ve got the OF covered…
Could the Reds take a shot and both or one of DeJesus/Teahan from KC?
Lastly i’d like to see a call to Boston about Buccholz..
I'd be calling Dayton Dragons every day to offer Taveras.
Booyah!
He sits alone...Reds are not home.
Dump Weathers on someone else.
Cut Taveras and Gonzalez. Trade Arroyo if someone is willing to give up a prospect; otherwise keep him.
Fire Baker.
Those are the moves. I’m in favor of addition by subtraction in 2009. We can add more in the offseason for 2010, although even that’s risky because the jackasses who do the adding don’t know their asses from their Taverases.
by Brian B on Jul 12, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Do You Have $10M Under Your Mattress?
Because that’s about how much money you’re asking this team to eat, not including the cost of replacements, all of which means the actual payroll available to rebuild the roster lowers.
the available money to rebuild remains the same
we are paying guys like Taveras and Gonzo whether they play or not.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 13, 2009 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions
$10 million is too much money to pay for losers.
Since you have to pay them, the only thing you can do is stop the losing. And you aren’t going to do that by playing them.
by Brian B on Jul 13, 2009 8:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sunk costs are sunk.
We have to evaluate moves based on how they will help us now. The fact that we committed millions of dollars to Gonzalez and Taveras is irrelevant, since they are not helping us—and we can’t do anything about those commitments. We can only look at our options now and make the best choice.
We have superior replacements for Taveras already, and we need to figure out a long-term strategy at SS since Gonzalez just isn’t going to work out. As for Baker, we would have to pay for a replacement, but it would be worth it.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I'd offer Milwaukee a couple of players for JJ Hardy
yes, the JJ Hardy who is not hitting right now.
Weird how Milwaukee has like three JJ Hardy's isn't it?
And, I don’t want the one who can hit. I want the one leading the league in UZR like a month ago (ie, the last time I looked)
Their is an odd core of dislike for Hardy among the fanbase
One of the reasons that is cited endlessly is his lack of range and “average” defense, facts be damned.
Not a bad idea
Whatever SS they go after needs to be major league ready and might have to be a buy low guy. I’m in grave fear that the plan is to convert Rosales to short. I think management really wants him to succeed. He’d be a great story, but he’s entirely too ADHD to be a successful MLB shortstop for any length of time.
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The powers that be may be dim
but surely, they are not that dim.
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 12, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
nah
he’s a man without a position. he came up as a SS but his glove doesnt play at short, and his bat doesnt play at 3B/1B. the Reds aren’t grooming him for SS.
i do think he can be a successful bench utility guy. im sure he’d be the emergency 3rd catcher on any team he plays for.
"I piss excellence"
auserious
What?? Do you really know anything about "Rosales"" maybe as a very good young man and he does know how to play baseball..Do you?? Some people comments really are bad…
by areuserious on Jul 13, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm pretty content to stand pat
if you can pick up something useful for rhodes, weathers, nix, or gomes then do it.
If you can get a monstrous return for harang or arroyo then do it.
Otherwise cut the dead weight at the end of the year, come up with a number one priority in the offseason, and actually accomplish it.
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
so who contributes next year?
the best prospects are still two years away, sans Stubbs. But then again we should have Lincecum winning Cy Young awards in Cincy. Duh.
"I piss excellence"
If Lincecum was here
we’d have found a way to screw him up.
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 12, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
Dave Righetti?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
San Fran has the best all-round pitching program in the majors
in terms of medical equipment, training programs, health regimens and post-performance analysis
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Jul 12, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Not necessarily
Maybe big name guys like Yonder and Soto are two years away, but I think Stubbs, Frazier, Heisey, Wood, and Stewart could all contribute next year given the right opportunity. If they start clearing dead weight for them now and get them the experience they need, they’ll be ready when they need to be. Foresight is the name of the game with this front office, and it’s about time they had some.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
Yeah, they'd be fantastic. Stubbs .257 BA would be awesome here
Let alone all the Double A kids. The future’s so bright, no one in the national media has even noticed
I'd rather have that in CF than what's there currently
And he’d be adjusting to major league pitching. He’s also hitting .297 in July so far, and while he isn’t hitting for power, his OBP is .368 right now and he has 33 SB at the All-Star break. You wouldn’t want that in Cincy?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
Yeah, and I could if CDickerson was playing there everyday
rather than counting on a guy not on the 40 man to replicate his July stats in the majors and steal meaningless bases for me. Counting on prospects know one else likes is so typical Reds fan.
When will Chad Mottola and Brandon Larson begin producing
Who doesn't like Drew Stubbs?
He was a top 10 overall pick. He’s gonna see significant time in the majors. I defy you to find one scout who projects Chris Dickerson or Willy Taveras as a better major leaguer than Drew Stubbs.
I’m not counting on him to replicate anything in the majors this year. But what I would do is bring him up now so he can replicate those stats next year when he has some major league experience under his belt.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
…while misusing homonyms and employing logical fallacies is most typical Reds fan
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Jul 12, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
So, last year when Dickerson was not on any prospect lists and got no national attention
he didn’t deserve a shot because he wasn’t an “A” prospect?
Let guys play their way in or out of spots, don’t count them out before they’ve had a chance.
By the way, Stubbs’ numbers this year compare favorably to Dickerson’s last year, and Dickerson was two years older
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Chad and Brandon
They’re producing my sausage mcmuffin with cheese right now, in fact.
by Brian B on Jul 13, 2009 8:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Are you really making an argument based on batting average?
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 12, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Or national media exposure?
Dickerson’s your best option for CF to save face right now, but Taveras’ 3 hit offensive bonanza today just solidified his job for the rest of the year.
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
National prospect lists
Like BP, BA, etc
Slyde’s finest argument is that Sickels grades most of them as B’s. Not exactly a group of people who will be bringing me to the promised land
Agree that the Reds prospects aren't all that
Right now, there is no untouchable prospect in the organization.
"Tigers love pepper...they hate cinnamon.
by cesarhernandez on Jul 12, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Every prospect can't be Matt Wieters
A “B” prospect is projected to be a solid major league every day player. We don’t have enough on this team. Matter of fact, we’ve only had them at 1B, 2B, and RF so far. I’d love it if some of those prospects could come up and be solid starters.
And as far as national media coverage, I can’t believe you would base your judgement of player quality on the national media coverage they get.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
NYC, you and I have covered this ground
you think there are tons of talent coming along in 2010 and I think you’re crazy. Not crazy in a bad way, but crazy in a very optimistic way
Maybe, but you have to be realistic about who this team is
When was the last time we traded for or signed a major impact player who made a major positive impact on the team? Juan Castro? Eric Milton? Alex Gonzalez?
The last one was Griffey, and he only came because of the hometown and family reasons. Usually we get guys like Gomes, Scott Hatteberg, or Rich Aurilia—nice players, but usually more like role guys gotten for cheap.
I’d rather count on league minimum prospects to come up and contribute than hope to find more Hattebergs and Aurilias, and waiting around for a big free agent signing is like waiting around for a three run homer. It probably ain’t gonna happen.
I’d love it if we could sign Matt Holliday and trade for Rafael Furcal. But hoping for that is more crazily optimistic than hoping that Stubbs and Valaika can come up and be league average CF and SS.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
well said
If that’s the choice (and it isn’t), then I’m in your corner. Rather than sign B level veterans, who are over-paid, to do what kids can do, let the kids do it. However, the choice is not “sign Holliday or sign the second coming of Rich Aurilla.” With the young prospects the Reds have, major league talent could be produced. Rather than wait years for a maybe (remember Drew Henson? He was a sure thing), flip them now for someone who can hit. You’re only a bat and an mlb average SS away from being competitive. Get those players, rather than telling everyone this next crop of kids is gonna change the world, because by the time they get here, the current crop will be arbitration eligible and too expensive for the “small market” Reds to keep
if the Reds can't afford arbitration eligible players
they’ll never succeed.
I really appreciate your contrarian opinion on this subject, but I think you are starting to create a strawman when you say, “Get those players, rather than telling everyone this next crop of kids is gonna change the world.” I think you are assigning thoughts to people that just aren’t being said. Everybody keeps saying that these guys aren’t going to be stars, but they could be good everyday players. Argue the downside of that point, not what people aren’t saying.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Thanks Slyde
I liked timb’s arguments too, because there’s definitely something to be said for dealing the potential that we have (and something of a surplus to boot) for the certainty of a known commodity. But damn, it’s wearying to have to read it 25 times in a single thread.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Slyde
I respect that, but NYC and we have been having this debate now for a week (and I hope it’s as good-natured on his part as it is on mine) and he seems to be arguing all the kids (Heisey, Frazier, Stubbs, Valakia) will be contributing at an MLB level by Opening Day 2011 and that means all the organization can do is make minor adjustments.
I don’t agree and, in fact, as I said earlier, he’s crazy optimistic and it’s because we’re conditioned to be the fans of a loser team. Loser organization always say, “you don’t like what you see here? Well, I got something in the back even better. It ain’t ready yet, but give it two years and it will be.”
As I mentioned a few times, this team in its prime right now with no star level player on the horizon (masked by the fact that its best players are also it’s youngest). They can’t keep telling me to wait, because for all the love I read here for certain players, I don’t find it anywhere else. Fans OVER value prospects.
So, I am attributing comments to NYC he has basically made (and drastically shortening them and mis-representing them, because I’m a jackass) and we’re having a talk.
Although, I can see from below that Brendan has wearied from the discussion too. What you say, NYC? I give you the last comment for now and then we can teach some of the new people that Dusty Baker ain’t the Anti-Christ?
I'm not saying they'll be ready in 2011
I’m saying Stubbs, Heisey, Frazier, and maybe even Valaika could perform better RIGHT NOW than what we’ve been getting. Put Stubbs in CF, Frazier in LF, Heisey in RF, and Valaika at SS for the rest of the year and you will probably win just about as many games as if they all stay down.
Then, going into the offseason Walt has a much better idea of what he’s got and what he needs, and he can make 1 major move as needed to put the team over the top. It’s not playing for some distant future. The future is now!
At least we agree on one thing, you are a jackass :-)
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
HEY! That last bit was an unfair part of your last rebuttal
I demand an entire fanpost wherein I denounce your AND Todd Frazier!
You wanna lump me in with Todd Frazier
go right ahead, dude won the little leage world series!
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
He'z got da ringz!!!!
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I want so badly to go on some Michigan bashing trip right now
Stupid Barry Larkin! Why did you have to be so good?
Eh, we’ll blame Henson on the Yankees.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm making an argument based upon the state I read yesterday
I don’t typically pour over Triple A OBP’s of guy’s who can’t come up until space is cleared from the 40 man
If he did the whole thing in one day, it's probably Hawaii or Rhode Island.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
Also, I don't know where you read that
Where are you getting .257 for Stubbs?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
Sheldon is wrong
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
Stubbs' stats so far this year
.280/.373/.373 33 SB, 6 CS, 85% success rate
Granted, not much power, but last I checked Willy T didn’t have much either. Stubbs also plays some of the best CF defense in the entire minor leagues.
I’d love to have that line from my CF/leadoff guy.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Funny how one road trip right before the break
colors my whole outlook on the season. We win a couple and we’re all a helluva lot more positive right now and thinking anything is possible.
This team obviously is nowhere near close enough to buy, unless it’s an upgrade for next year. But at the same time, this always planning for next year bullshit is testing the extreme limits of my fanhood. I’m jaded. It just seems like we’re always going to be a 77-85 team. There’s still time to make decisions before the deadline. If we’re within two and a half a week before the deadline, then Walt is almost obligated to try to swing something. Fact of the matter is, we might not be in this situation for years.
In short, I don’t know what the answer is, but it’s a fucking mess.
FWIW, BP has us at 4.5% to make the playoffs right now.
The buyer/seller question comes down to “if you roll a 20-sided die, are you confident betting the future of the franchise that you’ll roll a 7?” If you are, you’re a buyer and an idiot. If you’re not, then sell.
(Also, part of me hopes that this hypothetical conversation is the sole reason Adam Rosales was called up today.)
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
I honestly don't know,
But doesn’t the playoff odds count this team right now? As in: the Reds would be a better team if they had Holliday and Halladay, so wouldn’t they be likely to win more games going forward, leading to a better chance than rolling a 7? Maybe a 6 or a 7?
And yes, I know how the odds work, and that its just dependent on W-L compared to the other folks in the NLCentral…but this is the argument based on W-L that Gray wanted to see.
And of course, I’m not attacking you, just the concept of playoff odds. I think there are a lot more factors than just SOS and GB that go into September baseball. Just my opinion.
"They must win in 2010 or I'm done."
Whoa. What do you mean by win? Winning record? Win the division? Win the WS?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
He's going to move the blog to Miami and bring in a new slew of scrub commenters
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
I mean better than 85 wins
and by done, I mean, done. I’m tired of waiting.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
This season's basically a rehash of last year, just with better pitching
No Jay Bruce again
Non-entity manning CF
A-Gon is injured yet still the presumptive SS
Erratic Arroyo
Jilted Harang
Bailey shuttling back and forth
The pitching is showing signs of wear. Defense/pitching improvements might end up being essentially offset by how pathetic the offense is when Taveras plays out two full seasons and Mgmt puts all its power balls in Bruce’s basket.
I can’t really point to any signal move that shows the Reds are progressing other than the small sample success Jocketty has had in the trade market. I know the pitching – and bullpen especially has been good – but I’m pretty worried they’re going to blow it by putting too much stock in guys like Weathers, Lincoln and Burton and not making the requisite moves to improve.
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 11:54 PM EDT reply actions
Reds future
I’d like to see the older relievers moved. Its so low risk that who cares. roll the dice, weathers and rhodes to contenders and see what happens. take whatever you can get for them. maybe we get another Masset or smurf or something.
I know its a broken record, but i would like to see a new manager. I honestly think Dusty stinks and costs the team wins. he is terrible with the lineup and pitchers. he just doesn’t play the best players day in or day out. also seems like guys slump for way too long. he just isn’t that good a coach. i totally believe he could take the Yankees to the championship. where the lineup is set, the rotation is set and you are just making guys happy. Small markets need an above average manager to win with average players and young players, they need coaching and need the advantage of a good strategic manager to win.. That just isn’t Dusty. I think the reds are easily 5 games better with a decent manager.
2010 without dusty doesn’t bother me at all. Volquez, cueto, harrang, bailey, arroyo, owings pitching. Arroyo is a flake i don’t see anyone giving up anything for him.but if someone is buying, go ahead and get rid of him. but no one will be. we have enough position players to scrap together a decent team/line up. for the money the reds are going to spend you can’t expect more then that. you have to max out the mediocre talent you have and hope for Vottos to come around and get the most from them before they leave to get paid… like Dunn.
comment on the old trades??
Why does everyone hate the Dunner. He is a great player. he just can’t be your best player. I would have loved to see him play with this year’s Votto and a decent clean up hitter. Dunn can bat .260, hit 40 hrs, drive and score 100 runs… pretty much from any spot in the lineup. as a 5th or 6th hitter, he is an awesome role player. as a 3 or 4 hitter, he is a rally killing K machine. at 10 mil, we cant afford that kind of role player. but he was great to watch. most of my good reds memories the last 4 years were Dunn. maybe my favorite red of all time..apologies to Eric the Red.
Nice post
Great points about Dunn, and pretty much sum up my feelings toward him exactly. You also peg what Dusty does well, but I’d be willing to keep Dusty if it meant cleansing the coaching staff. If you’re gonna have young players, have people that can teach and guide young players. It’s extremely hard from a fan’s perspective to know what all a coach does, and how effective they are doing it, but it sure seems like none of our coaches are worth a damn. Particularly Jacoby, Pole, and Berry.
It seems as though defense is becoming the next trendy facet of How To Win Baseball Games. I’m wondering if coaching is the next one.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, know, the front office types know he's a cancer
and as Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, and Jeff Kent will tell you, all that matters is who is a cancer. No team can when without great clubhouse guys….you know, like Ernie Banks. he was a great guy and it’s why he was always int he playoffs.
I don't even understand what you're snarking about
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
It was a half angry rebuttal to the obc and friend stuff above
about how Adam just caused all the other players to be lazy and all. I didn’t want to continue two idiotic arguments on one thread, so I took my rage on “the reds couldn’t win with Dunn, because he’s a jerk” as snark here.
On the bright spot, I agree with your assessment from above in that I have NO idea what coaches are supposed to be doing. Maybe I should have saved my snark for obc?
It's such a crapshoot
I read one analysis that credited the Rays’ success last year in large part to luck: they didn’t suffer the injuries that other teams in their division did. I suspect that’s true; luck, particularly with injuries, plays a bigger role than we like to think.
And there’s not really much Jocketty can do about that, since it’s so random. Yankee fans like to blame Cashman for having such an old, injury-prone roster, and for not using some of George’s big bucks to pad the bench and stock players in Scranton.
But the Reds players who have spent time on the DL are not that old. There’s A-Gon, I guess, and maybe Lincoln. And Arroyo, who didn’t get DL’ed but maybe should have been. But EE, Votto, Volquez, Bray, Bruce…they’re all young. I suppose you could argue that every GM should be prepared for any injury, but practically speaking, it’s not possible. Money and roster spots are limited.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I agree,
the NFL is the biggest display of why injuries matter so much. Often the teams in the Super Bowl are just the ones that got lucky with injuries.
It’s the same for baseball, some times you are just going to get snakebit. At the same time, I don’t think injuries were the Reds problems this year, Votto excepted. I think a mediocre offense is.
Hal McCaoy said this was a fifth place team
and for once I agreed with him. I’d like to take some credit for the prediction, except it was obvious
re: Rays injury lucky
Tampa’s average age offensively was 27. Pitching was 26.4. The Yankees for example were 31.4/30.6. That explains a good bit of injury luck IMO.
Bruce is just 22
my example proves that you are wrong.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I don't get it
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Ha ha
I fooled you!
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
This is a tough one this year
Not because we might be buyers, we’re sellers all the way. In fact, the one silver lining to this road trip and Bruce’s injury is that hopefully it convinces Walt to be a seller.
No, this is tough because I’m not convinced we have anyone to trade that might make us better next year.
Bronson might bring someone back, but I’m not convinced we won’t need him either. Weathers and Rhodes wouldn’t bring anyone of substance back. Neither would Hernandez, Hairston, Nix, Gomes, Taveras, or EdE.
A trade this year would likely only be a salary dump, which doesn’t excite me in the least considering all of the saved money from Dunn/Griffey was spent on Taveras, Hairston, Lincoln, and Rhodes.
The only trades I’d like to see would be those that clear spots for Heisey, Stubbs, Valaika, or Frazier to come up and have a crack at major league pitching for a couple months to see who’s ready to contribute next year. I’m fairly convinced that will never happen, though, for two reasons.
1) Dusty wouldn’t let it happen, and I’m sure he has that kind of sway
2) Bob and Walt don’t want to do that, because if nothing else they want a winning season, and bringing up the youngsters would guarantee a losing one.
So I think one of two things will happen. One, we’ll stand pat and do nothing, or worse, we’ll trade for some insignificant bat that adds 1 or 2 wins and we finish 82-80 and they declare it a victory. Meanwhile next season, Taveras is still roaming around in CF, Hairston is playing 5-6 times a week, and we still don’t have an everyday LF.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
I think you're right in the main
this team is a .500 team and there’s not much improvement to be had, if one intends to keep the youngsters
Victory?
With all the injuries and inconsistency they’ve had in the first half, and the fact so many people bark about the eight straight losing seasons, seems 82-80 would indeed be a victory of sorts for this bunch.
I'm kind of with you
It would be nice to shed the “X straight losing seasons” tag, but 82 wins is still pretty hollow. We’re no better than a .500 team, and right now I think we’ll be lucky to do that well.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
I (and I would hope most Reds fans) would rather see them scrap this season and win 90 next year and than go balls to the wall this year to win 82. But if they decide that’s what they’re going to do, they need to go out and accomplish it for once.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
I agree, but I don't think we get there without trading for someone
and to me that’s not worth it.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
I honestly don't know
It seems like the Reds have been stuck in this mediocrity for years. Never really awful (like the Nats or Indians) but never over .500 or in contention for anything. I want to say that Walt should go for the big trade and do whatever they can to make a run this year; however, this team just doesn’t have it. I would try to trade Hernandez (although I like him) because Hanigan has more then proved himself in the batter’s box and behind the plate…you could maybe get some decent prospects for him due to the lack of quality catching. Arroyo should be gone, Bailey has shown some greatness and Micah is becoming a much better pitcher. I would try to trade Weathers or Rhodes (considering they’re both older). Additionally, and although this may be considering heresy, I would try to shop around Cordero…the team just doesn’t win enough to justify his salary and use only as a closer. If he was used more often I would be open to keeping him but his salary makes him prohibitive—let Nick Masset grow to take his place. Harang should be dangled to see what you could get for him. I would keep Votto (duh) and BP, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Herrara, Masset, Owings and dangle the rest of the team. Gonzo’s was hitting .214 on the season before being injured, which does not offset his defensive abilities and large salary (especially when so injury prone).
I would be open to trading Cordero - I just think his huge salary is not going to sell well.
We won’t have to eat as much cash with Weathers or Rhodes.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
True.
but if a team is looking for a decent closer, then who knows? I just don’t see why he’s paid so much…especially for a team like the Reds.
He has a no trade clause
which makes him even harder to trade.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Weathers is only signed for this year, right?
He’s the one I’m shopping. He’s been far better this year than I ever would have expected, and his last five years statistically holds up a lot better to scrutiny than I would have guessed.
Rhodes is signed for next year. I’d like to keep him because he’s proven to be a valuable arm, and I don’t want to entirely gut a 7-8-9 combination that’s been extremely good. The concern of course is that Dusty overuses Rhodes this year and then he’s no good next year, but I’m willing to take that risk.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
2010 is an option year
- 1 year/$3.9M (2009)
* accepted Cincinnati’s offer of arbitration 12/7/08
* re-signed 1/28/09 (avoided arbitration, $4.6M-$3M)
* 09:$3.5M, 10:$3.7M club option ($0.4M buyout)
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
to me that makes him more valuable as trade bait
if he keeps performing for his new team, they can keep him, or just consider him a rental
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Maybe he did
I’d like to hold on to one of the veterans (Coco’s not going anywhere til at least next year), and Rhodes is the guy I want to keep over Weathers.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh
and as much as he seems like a nice guy….fire Dusty. He just isn’t the type of manager the Reds need. Find someone who can manage teams with average and young players.
A little of both, but with 2010 in aim
I think 2010 likely remains in one of two offseason factors. Whether we think we can bring in a big name in the Infield or outfield. If we could pick up a Chone Figgins or Jason Bay (yeah right), I think we are one piece away.
For instance we pick up a real lead off man who can play third like figgins in the offseason, and a legit outfield bat, I think Gonzalez will suffice with his career .250 BA and good glove as long as he’s healthy.
I know not likely.
I am itching to take Gonzalez out behind the shed, shotgun in tow
And make a man of myself.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
How does Chone Figgins help this team win this year?
There’s still a black hole at SS and CF, Dusty probably would still bat Taveras leadoff, and you need to figure out what to do with Edwin (who’s been hitting since he got back from the DL). With a team that’s struggling for offense like this one is, replacing Edwin Encarnacion shouldn’t even be on the radar.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
It at least shouldn't be in steps 1-3
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Call me old school
but Chone Figgins offensive output is totally unacceptable for a corner infielder.
by Colin Auscapee on Jul 13, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Not exactly a fire sale but...................
We are a few peices away from being a serious contender, but I agree, not this year. Gonzo can’t stay healthy, Bruce is out, and the pitching seems to be weakening. Jocketty hasn’t shown me jack yet, so I’m not impressed by any of his decisions. Taveras is horrible and I’d rather see him at the bottom of the order if we have to keep him for another year. Hairston had a fluke year, he’s not that good. Dusty Baker and the retarded 3rd base coach that keeps sending runners to their death…I don’t know how many times I’ve counted runners being thrown out at home and I’m sick of it……
So, what does all this mean? I have no clue, but if I was a GM it would go something like this:
Trade Arroyo, Weathers, Rhodes. They should fetch something in return. Gomes, Nix and Hernandez should also fetch at least a AA prospect. If the deal is right, find something good for Encarnacion and Dickerson. But by all means, trim some of the dead wieght and payroll without gutting the team. Heck, if Bruce was healthy, I would trade him for a solid number one or two pitcher, Votto is clearly the better player. Since he is now hurt, we’re probably stuck with Bruce and his horrid hitting from here on out. Fire the hitting coach, hire some more scouts. I have my sights set on 2010 and to be honest, it could be lethal if the right moves are made. Someone suggested on here a couple of players and this is my view for the Reds lineup after cuts and trades are made:
Free agent pickups: Marco Scutaro/ SS
Chone Figgins/ 3B
Vladimir Guerrero/ LF(I know, it’s a huge stretch but keep reading)
Rich Harden/Erik Bedard/Randy Johnson/Randy Wolf
Bobby Abreu/RF
Carl Crawford/LF
Swing a deal for Nelson Cruz/RF-LF
Okay, so make a push for some of these guys and this is should what you end up with:
3B Chone Figgins
SS Marco Scutaro
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
LF Vladimir Guerrero
RF Jay Bruce (hoping he gets traded through and insert Carl Crawford here)
C Ramon Hernandez (although he should get traded too and insert Hanigan here)
CF Chris Dickerson
Rotation:
Harang
Bedard/Johnson/Harden/
Volquez
Cueto
Bailey/Owings
So, some of it’s a stretch, but very possible….if Jocketty is as good as advertised, then this needs to get done.
Color me intrigued by Scutaro (and baffled by pretty much the rest of it)
He and JJ Hardy are tops on my wishlist for shortstop.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Saying that the Reds need to acquire 7 impact players by next season is unrealistic.
Especially given their reluctance to spend money and make moves so far. I think a few of the players you mentioned could be useful, but this isn’t a video game.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
It's not a video game
it’s real life, played in spreadsheets!
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Video game, spreadsheets, real life
all that matters is we are getting carl crawford!
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
All we have to do is get rid of Jay Bruce first
Carl Crawford!
"I never should have given up the animation rights."
What we really need
I go with most of the comments but feel we need to clean out the coaching with the exception of Billy Hatcher. Our pitching has been the biggest joke in baseball, it is the same hitting coach who we have with every bad hitting team of the last several years and Dusty, what is he thinking about? This man has made decisions this year that are as bad as I’ve ever seen. I have been a Red’s fan for about 58 years and can’t believe the stupidity I have watched this year. I don’t like this platooning crap. These players want to be the starting 9, like every other team out there. We have a great core. Dickerson needs to be the center fielder. We need a young hitting shortstop, we need to get a legitimate 3rd baseman. I am sick of watching the Encarcion thing year after year. Hannigan is busting his but to show what he can do and sits the bench.
Hopefully we will find some common sense prevail soon.
by barryec@yahoo.com on Jul 13, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions
Yeah, well, Casey Stengal sort of proved platooning works
and giving people AB’s who sit on the bech keeps them sharp for when they have to play regularly (due to injuries). Dusty is doing a fine job with not much, despite the weird line ups and strange fetish for bunts
I'm with you the coaching changes.
The fact that Pole, Jacoby, and Berry still collect a regular paycheck is complete bullshit.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
I agree with Slyde's analysis
While I would simply like to tinker with the roster in preparation for next year, I’m not sure we can acquire anyone without fleecing our farm system, which I don’t want to do.
Reliable offense? – Votto, maybe Hanigan, maybe Ramon (who probably won’t be here next year), and Phillips (sometimes).
Bad signings? – Tavares (should be DFA now), Lincoln (OMG why?)
Good signings but too old next year – good trade bait? – Weathers, Rhodes
Good signings but probably gone next year? – Hernandez, Nix, Gomes
High priced contracts I’d be fine unloading? – Arroyo, Cordero, Harang
Expensive option years next season – see ya? – AGon, Hernandez (wish we could re-sign for less)
What’s left? – 1B Votto, 2B Phillips, SS – need one, 3B EE or need one, LF not sure, CF still stuck with Tavares even though Dickerson should be starting every game simply because his defense is 1000 times better than Tavares, not to mention his OBP, RF Bruce? or do we look for something better? C Hanigan with Corky backing him up?
I’m pretty much fine trading anyone but the following: Votto, Phillips, Masset (future closer if Cordero, Rhodes, and Weathers are dealt), Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Maloney, Zach Stewart, Travis Wood, and maybe Owings (because he’s still cheap)
Bring up Stubbs, Heisey, Frazier, and maybe Cozart and let’s see what they can do. Stick Stubbs in CF, Heisey in RF, Frazier at 3B and Cozart at SS. Rotate Gomes and Nix in LF, and let Dickerson platoon in CF with Stubbs. Whatever position fails to impress gives them reason to look for someone in the offseason.
They don’t have enough to compete this season. They’re fortunate to be playing in the NL Central, which sucks this year. Otherwise, we’d already be out of it.
......and Fire Dusty Baker
I don’t think this guy has a clue. I really don’t. Who in the world continues to bat a guy with an OBP under .325 (Tavares .283) in the leadoff spot? The same guy who batted Corey Patterson in the leadoff spot last year. Dusty does not understand the value of OBP. Dusty is too concerned with being a player’s manager than a fan’s manager that makes tough decisions and puts a lineup with a chance of winning on the field. Geez, his lineups really suck.
I hope this doesn't get taken the wrong way...
but I feel like we are turning into teh Fay’s blog. I like that RR has tried not to be cliquish, but I feel like the thought and analysis that used to make comments so enjoyable to read has been watered down by a lot of folks who are just spouting off. It’s a little unfortunate.
"I never should have given up the animation rights."
by BobbyO on Jul 13, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Mobile commenting has added to d
by Brian B on Jul 13, 2009 12:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
As I was saying before SBN rudely interrupted and posted prematurely
Mobile commenting has contributed to the deterioration if the commenting quality at RR. And by that, I mean it had allowed me to comment more often.
by Brian B on Jul 13, 2009 12:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks for the feedback
I appreciate hearing this and I understand what you are saying. I want to continue to grow the site, but I also don’t want to lose what makes the site different. I think that leaves it to us regulars to challenge the conventional wisdom of the outside world and assimilate the new readers to the proper way of thinking. :)
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Well I guess I best be gettin' on to the brainwashin' then
"I never should have given up the animation rights."
By the way, Slyde
I got my Kool-Aid packet in the mail today :-)
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Mine was grape and autographed by
Drew Stubbs.* What flavor was yours
(who I grudgingly admit would be the person I called up to take Bruce’s spot, right after moving Jay to the 60 day DL)
Mine was flavored by some chemical called "obp"
and signed by Todd Frazier
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
No doubt you are correct
that’s been a large problem of the problems I’ve had this season
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
great discussion in here
I think we should be buyers. I’m not convinced we have any real shot at this division (that Mets series unfortunately convinced me of that), but I do think we need to make adjustments in order to contend. We are so close, I don’t htink it should take multiple years to get this team above .500. I don’t have much in the way of specific acquisition suggestions, but we obviously need an easy RBI guy. Not necessarily someone who is incredible, just someone who can, when there is a runner on third with no outs (remember Hanigan’s lead off triple that failed to score in the White Sox game?) put the ball in theoutfield for a sac fly.
As far as specific changes go,we hsould let Alex Gonzalez go for sure. He is hurt too much, his defense can adeuqately be reproduced by Paul Jnaish and he can’t hit very well. Hernandez is great, but we do have Hanigan.
When you said "easy RBI guy," I was thinking of a guy or two at the top of the order that can get on base
Making it easier for the rest to get RBIs. That combined OBP of the first two spots in the batting order (something around .290) is just obscene. Like, right after Haitian kids eating dirt cookies obscene.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
absolutely
I forgot to mention that/ Either way a change could be made there that wouldn’t have to be huge and it would make a difference
Here's an idea I've been mulling...
I apologize if it’s been put forward before. I’ve been trying to wash the soap out of my hair for much of this season.
There’s a theory about building baseball teams that suggests that management should determine what the perceived strengths of the major league roster are and, once determined, should try to add to that strength rather than merely dealing from it.
The perceived strength of the Reds at the moment is their pitching; the glaring need is offense. If Jocketty goes out looking for offense at this point (trying to make a deal to save this season, presumably) then he’ll rightly be perceived as operating from a position of weakness. On the other hand, if he goes out looking to get back pitching, even as he’s looking to deal pitching, he operates from a position of greater perceived strength.
Now this second scenario doesn’t help the team this season, but the struggles/loss of Bruce and the emergence of a new, more deadly strain of the OBP Virus should have buried that hope the past month. What it might do for the Reds is establish them in the minds of other GMs as a team that should be contacted in any situation involving pitching — that the Reds are always willing dealers, buyers, and middlemen.
It isn’t so much that the Reds should go out and spend a ton more money on pitching — they clearly aren’t going to do that — it’s just that they need to be in the thick of things more often.
Along with the erection of this facade, however, must come a complete overhaul of the pitching organization from academies on up. It’s no use brightening up the storefront if everyone knows that the warehouse is in ruins. Instead of spending that 3 – 5 million on the next “base stealer,” use it to hire more — and more diverse — personnel devoted to acquiring, developing, and maintaining pitchers throughout the system. Not merely more scouts and coaches but trainers, therapists, support staff, and data analysts. By the time a Reds pitcher hits the bigs, he should be an annoying font of knowledge about pitching mechanics, nutrition, and advanced metrics and their importance to his performance. “Rub some dirt in it” style voodoo thinking should be replaced with a belief that the best competitors are those who remain healthy to compete.
In short, the Reds should re-brand themselves, but, in the process, make sure that their new brand isn’t merely a marketing ploy. It needs to be real and organization-wide. This plan won’t have a major effect on the short term efforts of the club, but it can be jump-started right now at the major league level with a commitment to focus on building pitching depth to the point that it becomes wealth.
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Jul 13, 2009 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I think it's an interesting idea (which is why I rec'd it)
I love the idea of rebranding. Can we bring some synergy into this as well?
If you are going to be branded, being branded as a pitching rich organization is the way to go. The Braves have been milking that reputation in trades for years. And it’s not like anybody says, “Hey, those guys really know how to develop outfielders.”
I think while doing this branding, a more subtle step that the Reds have already taken is to keep focusing on defense as well. They’ve shown this year that you make your pitching look so much better when you can actually field the ball consistently. I’m becoming more and more convinced that the last 5 or 6 years have been hurt by defense as much as pitching. And yes, that means Adam Dunn as well.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Yeah, I like the defense thing
because it does make our pitchers look better. There’s enough solid pitching depth in the minors that this re-branding might be possible. Who knows if they are thinking this way, though.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Theo and company have been doing this sort of thing in Boston recently
Not the re-branding part, but the annoying amount of data. They tend to test their pitchers on off days by making them throw all their pitches and comparing the data to the recorded performance. They think they can cut down on injuries by getting players to be more aware of what pain is real and what pain is soreness. Also, it gives management a good idea whom to use and whose workload may need to be cut back. Lastly, I think I read they give them preventive MRI’s to try to detect fraying in the shoulder (especially) before it becomes an actual rotator cuff tear.
I am all for this (it’s from BP). It awesome preventive cost
I thought I read somewhere that they
and some other teams use motion tracking technology to study pitcher mechanics and watch for warning signs of injury. I imagine it’s much easier to identify bad mechanics on a wire figure than a real human. I thought that was pretty cool.
The unfortunate part is that we don’t know if any of this extra stuff will work, so only the teams that can afford to spend are likely going to do it at this point, while teams will smaller budgets will tend to hide behind that.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
That's what I thought to. I wonder how long you have to give it, before a smaller budget
team could add it to practices? I mean, we could look at a healthy Josh Beckett and think something is going on there (although I would imagine his health is more his maturity level, still it’s been awhile since he complained about blisters).
Still, as much as I am happy with the way Big Bob has spent money lately, he still employs a skipper who thinks Earl Weaver is too avant garde. I wonder, in the tensions between those two things, where Walt stands?
where does Walt stand?
on a big pile of banana money
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 13, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
There's $250,000 in the walls of his house.
by Brendanukkah on Jul 13, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
As I've mentioned before
the leading club in this regard is the San Francisco Giants, and it’s possible that we’re seeing the first fruits of the wholesale investment in pitching that the organization made — all this despite Sabean’s silly contracts (including, of course, Zito’s).
I think many GMs will be watching the Giants home-grown pitchers to see if their program is, indeed, the model of the future.
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Jul 13, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to see
the Reds get rid of Arroyo, Weathers, and Taveras through trades, and attain Holliday (not necessarily in the same trade, that obviously wont get Holliday), but only if we’re sure we can keep him for 2010 at the least, and preferably longer, because I dont think we’re in contention with the addition of him just yet. Then wait until free agency to sign a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera comes to mind). Right now, I’d like to see Drew Stubbs up here getting experience and playing time he needs to be a solid CF. By 2010 we see a lineup that looks hopefully like this:
1. Stubbs CF .260
2. Phillips 2B .280
3. Votto 1B .330
4. Holliday LF .300
5. Bruce RF .250
6. Cabrera SS .270
7. Encarnacion 3B .250
8. Hanigan C .300
Then we keep a rotation of Volquez Cueto Harang Bailey and Owings. Those moves don’t expect miracles, and would make us good for a while but it does require dumping Arroyo’s salary. And doesn’t that look a lot better than what we’re running out there now?
The problem starts with Baker and Jocketty.
Baker is the one playing Taveras and Hairston all the time despite their numbers and (lack of) defense. Baker would still be batting Gonzalez 2nd if Gonzo hadn’t gotten hurt. Baker is the one playing Ramon Hernandez in front of Ryan Hanigan. Fire Baker.
Jocketty is doing nothing. He traded Griffey, Dunn, and Freel for pitching and catching help, but he’s done nothing else. Like Krivsky, Jocketty has spent Uncle Bob’s money unwisely. But he’s also letting overpriced, mediocre (or shitty) veterans play in front of quickly developing youth. Put Jocketty on notice; wake up and get some shit done or go down to HR and get a box.
Release Weathers. Goodbye. Done.
Gonzo is probably done for the year, and if not, let’s pretend. Even if he comes back healthy, DFA him. His contract is up at the end of the year anyway. Let him walk. Put Janish at SS and wait for another kid to develop. Bat Janish 8th always.
Bench Taveras for the season, put Dickerson or Stubbs out there and play out the string. Dump Taveras in the off-season. The money’s gone. Cut your losses at this point. Why cost the team wins in addition to the millions he’s making? If he clears waivers, give him his unconditional release and take the fucking ball away from Dusty.
Expensive to dump Baker and Taveras? Not really. Baker is making what, $3.5m a year and Taveras, what, $4m tops? Put a winner on the field next year and the attendance will make this a wash. Unload Arroyo, Harang, or E5 and you have even more money freed up.
Oh, and dump Hairston and stop signing Baker cronies.
Dickerson/Stubbs CF
Hanigan C
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Gomes LF
Nix RF
E5 3B
Janish SS
P
Phone's ringing, Dude.
So, how many major league players are you dumping?
for nothing?
And, how is your line up more than 2 wins better than the one Dusty puts out there? You think Taveras is worthless, but he hits better than Janish, who you want to see everyday. You think Nix and Gomes are regulars, and bat the only right-handed power on your team seventh?
Personally, I’ll stick with Dusty and Walt, especially since Walt’s been GM for a year. As others pointed out, this is not a video game, you can’t improve overnight. You certainly don’t improve by dumping three or four MLB talent level players for nothing.
Which of those do you think is MLB talent level?
Are you seriously sticking up for Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, and David freaking Weathers?
Taveras is worthless precisely because he doesn’t get on base better than Janish, and Taveras always bats leadoff.
Taveras OBP: .288
Janish OBP: .310
I’ll take a .310 OBP and good defense at SS batting in the 8th spot in the lineup.
Save for a few months, Gonzo has been unable to play for this team since signing here. His contract is up at the end of the year. Letting him walk doesn’t cost the Reds anything more than what they’ve committed for this year, and putting Janish out there gives them the defense they’ve been promising. Gonzo’s days of defensive prowess are pretty much over. If Gonzo comes back this season, which I doubt, it’s not like cutting him loose two months before his contract is up is some kind of big deal. Let’s get a look at someone else at SS. Gonzo isn’t the answer.
Weathers? Really? Do I have to explain this one?
I didn’t say the lineup would be better automatically, but it’s a start.
Btw, how is E5 the only RH power? Phillips and Gomes both have 20+ homer seasons behind them.
Phone's ringing, Dude.
I'd like an explanation for Gonzalez too
He hasn’t been THAT bad defensively, according to fangraphs, and why he gets abused for not being an offensive star (which he has never been) when he’s hitting better than Janish is beyond me. Both are poor options. Why one is hated and the other lauded is a mystery
i think it has something to do with the fact that
Janish makes 400K and Gonzo makes 5 mil. otherwise they are pretty much the same guy.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 14, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
If we’re going to have an unproductive shortstop, let’s not re-sign the guy who’s making millions to not play when $400k gets you the same thing in the lineup (assuming Dusty remembers he’s on the roster). Janish has better range, too.
As for Weathers….some of his stats are deceptive. His ERA and hits allowed don’t tell the whole story. The last stat I heard on him re: inherited runners was that he had allowed 8 of 14 to score. Other than his year of 33 saves, his WHIP has consistently been between 1.21 and 1.52 since starting his second tour with the Reds, and his career WHIP is 1.48 — not good. He’s been serviceable this time around, but he’s one of the last people in the bullpen that I’d want out there with the game on the line. Yet he seems to be out there all the time with the game on the line.
Plus the grand slam to Pujols still burns my ass. I’ll admit it.
Phone's ringing, Dude.
Who said anything about re-signing him?
You want to release a bona fide major league SS out of pique and the feeling he’s overpaid
But...
he’s not producing and can’t stay healthy. You want to just keep him on the roster? Because he makes money? For basically 2.5 months? I’m saying clear the roster spot when he comes back (trade, release, whatever I don’t care) and turn the page.
Or, you know, have it your way. Keep him on the roster. If/when he gets healthy, Dusty will bat him second, because that’s where Dusty bats his shortstops, and Gonzo’ll hit around .230 with an OBP of around .300, and play defense like a statue on top of a Roomba. All for $5 million.
Phone's ringing, Dude.
The 1.52 WHIP was an outlier
I was worried about him entering this year because of that, but he’s got his peripherals in line. And these past few years have been way better than his (storied) career numbers He’s had a WHIP under 1.30 4 of the 5 years of this Reds stint. I won’t recite the litany of what stats I looked at to make sure I wasn’t talking out of my ass re: Weathers, but I assure you I look past a reliever’s ERA and hits allowed.
Yes, he’s not a shut down reliever. I often feel uncomfortable with him out there with the game on the line. But he would be an improvement to any contender’s bullpen and you’re talking about just cutting him.
also
Weathers has actually allowed 8 of 16 IR to score. It’s all here under Team Relief Pitching.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2009-pitching.shtml
I’m not going to tell you 8 of 16 is good, but it’s 3 over the league average of 31% (or basically one Albert Pujols at bat… sigh). The bigger issue is probably that he’s appeared in the second most highly leveraged innings to Cordero, when according to production he should be 3rd or maybe 4th. So shovel a little more dirt on Dusty if you’re inclined.
And who guessed that Mike Lincoln allowed the fewest inherited runners to score?
I think we're arguing the same thing...almost.
Right up to but not including cutting him. Like a lot of fans, I’m sick of seeing Weathers out there in the wrong situations. Most of his numbers are about league average, but this organization seems to view him as a lights-out guy and does things like putting him in to face Pujols with the bases loaded.
Talking about just releasing the guy…I mean, if he’s worth something to another team, then by all means trade him. Hell, if Gonzo’s worth something to another team, make the move. But you see these arguments around the blogs where people are saying “Trade so-and-so!” and the response is usually that there is no demand for them. Frankly, I don’t know what you could get for Weathers or Gonzo. Probably not another major leaguer. Low level prospects?
Phone's ringing, Dude.
Whose money is it? Not mine
Further, dude wants to release him, meaning you’re STILL paying the same amount
im not trying to justify releasing him
im just trying to get at what it is that makes most people view he and Janish so differently. Janish is a kid who hasnt been given a chance, and Gonzo is a broken down failed free agent signing who has been on the DL for exactly half of his contract. i dont think it’s anymore complicated than that.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 15, 2009 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions
It isn't.
Though I’d bet Dusty views them differently too, and wouldn’t bat Janish 2nd. Part of my logic has to do with anticipating Dusty’s tendencies.
Phone's ringing, Dude.
Thought we were firing Dusty?
You seem to be having PTSD over that week Gonzo batted second. It is difficult to forget, but try to remember Dusty said he was out of options and Gonzo had begun hitting. I didn’t necessarily agree with him, but the option of batting Hairston second or Nix or Gomes or Rosales or any of the terrible hitters this team has means whomever Dusty bats second is going to suck
MAKE THE RED'S BETTER
I THINK WE KEEP WHAT WE HAVE N MAKE A MOVE WITH IN ANOTHER WEEK OR SO N THEN TAKE IT FROM THERE!!!!!
by quiles!!! !go red's on Jul 14, 2009 8:35 AM EDT reply actions
no
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Jul 14, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
you are so quick to dismiss
Mr !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! may have some valid points. He’s definitely enthusiastic about them.
Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,
by 'tHan on Jul 14, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Leo Mazzone, anyone?
One name I seldom see, he’s out of work, and was a hell of a pitching coach in Atlanta, is Leo Mazzone. In typical budget fashion, we hired Pole because he’d been around Greg Maddux, as though that would somehow serve as a kind of sort-of-related to Leo Mazzone, who would be a great pitching coach whose name fans know, but we’re too cheap to go for the real thing sort of thing. He sort of fell off the radar after his stint in Baltimore, as he just couldn’t work miracles with the likes of Bruce Chen, it was decided he must not be a good pitching coach after all… I should think that his years in Atlanta, the way he kept those guys healthy and dominant might deserve a second look. Owners and GM’s (and a good number of managers) are notorious for looking for any excuse to disprove/discredit Johnny Sain and his disciples, of which Mazzone is perhaps the most well known. there might be something like that going on with the lack of interest, and I’d wager Mazzone wants another shot to prove himself. It’s not exactly taking a chance with someone like that, he’s got (to put it modestly) a pretty decent track record, aside from that crap-fest they dealt him in Baltimore the first year, Jeremy Guthrie, Bedard, Traschel all had good 07’ s under him. In any event, it is strange that someone like Mazzone is sitting home (see above on Sain), while most teams fill their pitching coach postions with retreads and hacks of all descriptions.
He’s no Dick Pole, and besides, the whole Dick Pole thing stopped being funny when they got rid of Coutlangus.
I’d think they’d have a better shot at Mazzone, but if they could pull Greg Maddux away from his golf clubs and so-cal exurban bliss, he grew up a Reds fan. Though he has zero coaching experience, I don’t think there’s a better baseball mind out there viz pitching. I’d imagine he could tell you more of the good advice Dick Pole gave him than Dick Pole could. I’d wager that Pole told him something, Maddux went out and fiddled around until something worked (‘ok, that must be what he was talking about, good advice!’), rather than Pole telling him anything specifically helpful (especially given that Mario Soto seems able to straighten out Cueto and Volquez in a few days after they’ve been in steady decline under Pole).
To continue rambling— Mazzone had a similar, young and largely unproven group in Atlanta, he got them on a program, they didn’t break down, and all got to be pretty good pitchers.
Really this boils down to one thing:
Do you want your pitching coach rocking back and forth to comfort himself, or the fans rocking back and forth to comfort themselves? I pick Mazzone.
Phone's ringing, Dude.
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