How would you fix this Reds team?

by Dude Rock on Jul 12, 2009 11:49 AM EDT Comment 11 comments

Well, Jay Bruce is most likely out for the season with a broken wrist. It looks severe, and that would require several months to heal. Doesn't the triple A season end before September (hence September call-ups)? Which would mean that if Jay healed in the next month in a half, a rehab stint would be unlikely. My opinion is they shouldn't rush Jay back, let him get fully healthy, have Jeff Brantley explain to Jay Bruce how pitchers are taking advantage of him, and then hire an outstanding hitting coach to help Jay make adjustments to improve his hitting against lefties and against offspeed and breaking balls. Then send him to Winter Ball and let him work on all of that out of the spotlight.

The Reds are too cheap-minded to admit signing Willy Tavares was a huge mistake. I'd DFA him immediately after the All-Star Break. It amazes me (stats off of Lance McAlister's blog) that Dusty would continue to put Tavares at leadoff when, out of 133 hitters in mlb with atleast 300 plate appearances, Tavares ranks 129th out of 133 hitters with an OBP of .283 (Jay Bruce has an OBP of .284). Out of 133 hitters again, Tavares is dead last in OPS at .575. This team has had two key elements in the starting lineup all year with incredibly lousy on base percentages. No wonder this team struggles to score more than 2 or 3 runs per game. Didn't they learn anything from the Corey Patterson experiment? It's like deja vu all over again. Seriously.

This team is not going to contend with it's current roster. Nor do I see management adding more payroll in this economic climate, and the fact that attendance is not likely to hit 2 million this year, as they've yet to hit 1 million. Also, because the Reds farm system seems to be loaded more than other teams' farm systems, potential trade partners seem to ask for more from the Reds than other teams. Jocketty continually eludes that his trade offer was better than St. Louis for Derosa, but that Cleveland wanted more from the Reds than St. Louis. Seems to be the norm when you have alot of good prospects. Let's just stick with the plan and continue to develop these guys.

I read the message boards and hear fans complaining how the Reds rushed Jay Bruce to the majors (what did he have left to prove in the minors?) and that they did the same thing with Homer Bailey. You can't seriously tell me that Bailey's 18 previous starts over the last 2 years didn't have a positive impact on his major league development? Would Jay Bruce ever have had to deal with opponents devising a way to get him out and finding his hitting flaws if he were still in triple A? Once a player has proven all they can prove in the minors, it's time for their major league development to begin. I would say Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are about there. Same for Matt Maloney. I can see Travis Wood and Zach Stewart probably ready after one more season in the minors. And why isn't Wood in triple A? The major league club is improved, but lacks the offense to get over the hump and push them to contender status. If what we have isn't exactly working, shouldn't management be looking to promote some of these minor league guys who are dominating triple A (Heisey has dominated double and triple A this year). Time to see what the kids can do. I'd bring up Heisey and stick him RF the rest of the season unless he completely implodes. I'd consider bringing up Stubbs or waiting until September and platooning him with Dickerson. Let Gomes and Nix platoon in LF. That solves your OF.

Shortstop is another problem. Would you risk promoting a guy from double A (Cozart)? Valaika isn't exactly tearing up triple A. Or do you continue to stick Janish and Hairston out there?

I'm ready for the future. That's where I stand. The lineup they keep trotting out there isn't getting it done. You have to ask, what would it hurt to bring guys up and see what they can do? The White Sox promoted Beckham (2008 1st round draft pick) and he barely had a minor league stint. Talk about rushing a guy to the majors. In 114 appearances, 8 doubles, 3 HR's, 19 rbi's, and batting .263. The future is now. The White Sox realize this.

Management has been patient enough with this team and given them every chance to succeed. Certain players are not getting it done. The future is now!

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wait til next year

"I piss excellence"

by obc2 on Jul 12, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How would I fix 'em?

Contraction

by Highlifeman21 on Jul 12, 2009 7:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This isn't directed at any one person, but I think the philosophy of "waiting on the calvary"

is wrongheaded. There’s no guarantee any of this organization’s prospects are going to pan out, Alonso included. Even if they do reach the majors and stick – as in the case of Jay Bruce – their success can be tentative. It’s obvious that small market teams need to cultivate a good farm system, but when the draft is such a crap shoot and players are subject to such longitudinal unpredictability, you can’t be perpetually playing for the future. It’s like keeping all your money in the stock market.

I think the team needs to invest in winning right now, while not playing for this season alone. As a 4-5 game win streak in this division constitutes a “surge,” I think the strategy is to start playing competitively NOW and have it carry over to next year – it would be good for revenue.

In conjuction with those moves and others, you have an OF and SS that can be regulars, at least one of which should have a contract that runs at least through the end of 2010. If there’s no

Then you rejigger the lineup. Make Gomes your fulltime LF – he’s put up the best offensive numbers second to Votto in the limited time he’s had and has decent splits. If there’s no OF bat to be had, give both Heisey and Stubbs looks – but this team won’t compete anytime soon if it doesn’t get another guy with power and on-base ability in the lineup. I’m convinced of that. I honestly don’t know who the Reds could get on the trade market, but I think Holliday would be a terrible idea for obvious reasons. Maybe a Cleveland Indian? Shin-Soo Choo? We’d probably have to pay dearly in prospects for him.

Here’s what the Reds could put out there without nuking the team or completely mortaging the future

Dickerson CF
Hanigan C
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Gomes LF
Rolen OR Edwin 3B
Heisey OR Shin Soo-Choo RF
Orlando Cabrera SS

Either Arroyo or Harang would be gone. Once Volquez is back and assuming Homer’s recent success sticks, the rotation would be:

Volquez, Cueto, Harang/Arroyo, Bailey, Owings

Then you look to sign a back-end starter if Owings and/or Bailey breaks down, with hopes that Travis Wood or someone similar can earn a spot.

My hypothetical moves could be myopic, but I maintain the core thesis that you can’t count on the farm. You have to hedge you bets by try to play decent baseball NOW, and trying perpetually to improve the team at all levels not letting problems fester and fan interest slip.

I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 12, 2009 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reds teams of the past that won pennants and World Championships did not have truly outstanding dominant pitchers. When they did, the team did not win. Tradition means we need probably 3 to 4 good sixteen to eighteen game winners. Reds always seem to have good relief pitching. Key here is bring up the young arms but don’t rush them.
When you win, Reds have great defense up the middle; from catcher to shortstop to CF. We don’t have that today. Just look at the number of erros. Dusty – back to the basics; not now but at next year’s spring training camp. You need speedy outfielders and sure hand infielders. Other than Votto, Phillips, what other home run hitters can we count on? That’s why the Reds are scratching for a run here and there so execution and base running are important. Desperately need an RBI guy who can deliver at the crutch.

by Richard L on Jul 16, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

who can deliver at the crutch.

was that racist?

Made from 100% Recycled Awesome,

by 'tHan on Jul 16, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fix this team

Have them neutered…hell yes

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Jul 16, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Meow.

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on Jul 22, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cut off Castellini's balls. That might help. Oh yeah, he has none.

by Dude Rock on Jul 25, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd trade everyone not named Votto. I'm tired of the rest of the team. Start from scratch. Fire Crusty.

by Dude Rock on Jul 25, 2009 5:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's my new moves.......

Since ownership has decided the farm system has now become trading chips…….if they’re going that direction, then here is what I would do:

Trade Bruce, Stubbs, Maloney, Valaika, and some lower level top prospect, if needed, to the Padres for Adrien Gonzalez. Gonzalez is signed through 2010 with a club option for ‘11 at only $5.5M. He’s owed $4.75M next year. Stick him on 1B. Here’s the link for Gonzalez contract: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/san-diego-padres.html

Move Votto to LF. I believe this would be doing Joey a huge favor in terms of recognition and All-Star chances if he continues to be a Larry Walker type hitter. First Base is clogged with Pujols and other sluggers that will always be voted ahead of Joey and not give him a chance to shine. I think moving to LF would allow him to shine more as a hitter.

Sign Matt Holiday in the offseason and stick him in RF. It will probably cost around $13 million per season, but we were willing to pay Dunn that before anyway.

Keep Rolen on 3B. He is owed $15M next season ($11M + $4M bonus).

Stick Dickerson in CF for strong defensive purposes and put him either near the top of the lineup or bottom of the lineup depending. But I think he has a good eye and could get on base FAR MORE than Tavares. His defense is some of the best in the league.

Lineup:
Phillips 2B
Dickerson CF
Votto LF
Holiday RF
Gonzalez 1B
Rolen 3B
??? SS
Hanigan C

Keep Arroyo, Harang, Cordero, Rhodes, Weathers, etc.

2010 Payroll obligations based on all of the above per Cot’s Baseball Contracts site:
Cordero $12.125M
Harang $12.5M
Arroyo $12.25M
Rolen $15M
Holiday $13M
Gonzalez $5.5M
Phillips $7M
Tavares $4M
Rhodes $2M
Hernandez $1M (buyout)
Alex Gonzalez $.5 (buyout)
Lincoln $2.5M
Alonso $.9M
$88.275M for above guys 13 guys, 9 of which will be on 40 man roster.

Votto $.4M
Burton $.4M
Owings $.4M
Masset $.4M
Volquez $.4M
Cueto $.4M
Dickerson $.4M
Bailey $.4M

31 guys making approximately $.4M = $12.4M
Brings total payroll to around $100M.

Ownership goes for it all. If it blows up in their face, they don’t pick up the options on Adrien Gonzalez and Rolen, which saves $20M. Harang and Arroyo’s contracts can be bought out in ‘11 for $2M each, which saves another $20M. So, if the Reds go for it on a $100M payroll next year and it doesn’t work, in 2011 they don’t have to re-sign Rolen, Adrien Gonzalez, Arroyo and Harang and payroll drops back down around $60M.

Simplified version. But the pitching remains basically the same as this year and you bolster the hitting. The one factor I left out was SS. Not sure how you fill that spot yet.

Remaining guys on 40-man roster approximately $.4M. I also realize some of those guys are making closer to $450,000 but I simplified it.

by Dude Rock on Aug 1, 2009 9:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs