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With the 8th pick, the Cincinnati Reds select ...

   We are one day from the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft and don’t have a clear idea of which way the Reds will go with the eighth overall pick.

   After the Nationals utter “Stephen Strasburg, right-handed pitcher, San Diego State” this turns into the most unpredictable draft in recent memory. Which future Jay Bruce or John Oliver will Cincinnati select? A better question for now is, which player do you prefer?

   Using multiple sources, we’ll guess that the following players will be off the board:

   Strasburg

   Dustin Ackley, cf/1B, North Carolina

   Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth (independent)

   Zach Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS

   Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS

   Alex White, RHP, North Carolina

  

   Another guy from the list below likely will be gone, as well. Who is anybody’s guess. Speculation has the Reds sticking to, or near to, slot. If so, that probably eliminates HS OF Donovan Tate, HS RHP Jacob Turner, HS LHP Matthew Purke, and HS RHP Shelby Miller. That leaves six, unless the Reds pull a bit of a surprise:

 

n      Kyle Gibson-RHP-Missouri. Touted as a better prospect than former Mizzou hurlers Max Scherzer and Aaron Crow, Gibson’s future is clouded by a stress fracture in his forearm that will sideline him until at least late July. When healthy, his fastball/slider combination makes him a great groundball/strikeout fit for GABP. His command and pitchability stand out. Would you roll the dice that his arm problems aren’t more serious than being promoted? His stats: 10-3, 3.47 ERA. 99 IP, 89 H, 123 K, 18 BB.

n      Alex White-RHP-North Carolina. Struggled in the postseason until his most recent start when he was stellar. Has three plus pitches, but never at the same time. Talented but inconsistent, he could be a front-end starter or a back-end reliever. His stats: 7-4, 4.13 ERA. 85 IP, 73 H, 92 K, 34 BB.

n      Tanner Scheppers-RHP-St. Paul (independent). Shoulder problems described as “significant wear and tear” cloud Schepper’s status. When healthy, only Strasburg is a better pitcher in this draft. Scheppers has thrown hard this spring, but hasn’t accumulated enough stats to make them worth posting.

n      Grant Green-SS-USC. A slow start thanks to nagging injuries sent Green’s stock plummeting, but he bounced back to post a 4-32-.365/.436/.556 line with 16 SB. He has the most potential of any college MIF in the draft.

n      Mike Leake-RHP-Arizona State. A small, but smart and athletic, groundball specialist, Leake is a competitor. Leake is among the most consistent players on the board. His stats: 14-1 1.24 ERA. 116 IP, 66 H, 118 K, 18 BB.

n      Tim Wheeler-OF-Sacramento State. A plus-hitter with slightly above average power, Wheeler could be a fixture in LF and the middle of the batting order. His stats: 18-72-.385/.500./786 with 15 SB.

 

   For me, it’s Gibson, Leake, Green or Wheeler, in that order. I’m happy with any of the four, but prefer the pitchers. Gibson’s injury doesn’t worry me, even if it’s an elbow that requires Tommy John surgery. Schepper’s shoulder, meanwhile, I just don’t trust.

  




0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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I don't care as long as it's not Chris Gruler

Actually, I would prefer Leake, but one potential twist if the Reds draft Gibson would be that if his forearm injury turns out to be more serious than expected, they can pass on signing him and pick up the #9 pick in 2010.

All things being equal, I’d rather have the pick this year, but I assume some team picking in the teens will pick Gibson with that in mind.

by riverfront76 on Jun 8, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i like Gibson or Leake

White would be my #3 choice. i dont see it in Green. he seems like a nice enough player, and he may very well make the big leagues and be a star, but right now there are just too many guys ahead of him for the Reds to take him at #8.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 8, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Tough draft

There are a lot of options that I don’t feel fully comfortable taking at #8. While Green’s injury doesn’t worry me a lot, I also think for the value you would be overdrafting him by about 10-20 spots at #8.

Mike Leake seems to me like the best call of the guys left. Small, but strong stuff with good control. Maybe not #1 upside potential, but I am alright with that.

I still wouldn’t take Grant Green in the top 15. Just don’t trust the bat enough to play anywhere but SS and I don’t hear the best things about his defense.

White wouldn’t be the worst pick, but he needs some work.

Scheppers shoulder still scares me. Pass.

I like Tim Wheeler, but not enough to take him inside the top 10.

by dougdirt on Jun 8, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Out of those choices, Leake would be my favorite

I haven’t seen mock drafts lately – weren’t Donovan Tate and Jacob Turner top 10 guys as well?

by D-Rock on Jun 8, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

They were, but signability concerns

have them falling. Of course, that all could just be smokescreen.

An interesting twist could be if the Reds took Gibson, then took Tate, Turner, Purke or Miller in the second round, if any of them fell that far. If Gibson’s arm isn’t determined to be sound, the Reds could sink first and second round money into one of those four who fell, all the while getting the No. 9 overall pick in next year’s draft. Of course, the Tigers, Yankees and Red Sox are unlikely to let those four slide by them.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 8, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhh, interesting

I knew Tate was a Scott Boras client, so that explains “signability concerns.”

They say that the International talent pool is especially deep this year. Maybe the Reds can throw some money in that direction if they don’t draft a guy with a high price tag.

by D-Rock on Jun 8, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Word is that White was injured, but is doing much better...

At least, he dominated the offense-heavy Pirates in the super-regional game he pitched a couple of days ago. The Triangle paper has a writeup of the game.

He was apparently the 2008 ACC Pitcher of the Year.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 8, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I Don't Like the Consensus Pecking Order This Year

I’m not one of those bashing this as a bad draft, I just don’t feel confident in any of the “top tier” guys. (I’m not sold on Strasburg being worth the hype, either.) One scouting director was quoted as saying he thinks it’s a don’t-laugh-at-my-pick-and-I-won’t-laugh-at-yours kind of year, and I kind of like that approach.

That being said, of the guys thought to be in the running, I prefer Mike Leake. However, if I were running the draft, I’d take either Matt Hobgood or David Renfroe at number 8. Sure, they’d be panned as “overdrafts”, but would an Alex White seriously be a better bet? Hobgood’s got two plus pitches right now, is considered fiercely competitive, and has some projection left, while the biggest knock on Renfroe that I’ve found is that he’s likely to move off short to third, where his bat is expected to hold up well. Both would likely sign for slot, too, as an added bonus.

by brawny_hombre on Jun 9, 2009 12:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting.

I like the line of thought. I still prefer Leake or Gibson, but wouldn’t at all be upset if the Reds went with Bobby Borchering, whom folks would regard as an overdraft.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 9, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Purke, then White at #8

Then pick the Ohio OF with the early 2nd round pick.

I have spoken. In class, today.

"We're going to Adonis, son"

jch24

by obc2 on Jun 9, 2009 8:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Teacher says you get a gold star!

Sweat plus sacrifice equals success. Charles O. Finley
Sweat plus sacrifice equals a runner in scoring position. Dusty Baker
Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 9, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baseball America's latest mock draft

has the Reds taking Vanderbilt’s Mike Minor, a pitchability LHP. That would be OK, I suppose, but I prefer Leake or a healthy Gibson. BA also has Aaron Crow available when Cincinnati selects. If he’s there, and I can’t see him slipping past Pittsburgh, he’s the guy I want.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 9, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You think Pitt will pony up for Crow?

I wonder if their prolonged negotiations with Alvarez last year will tilt them back towards a signability pick. On the other hand, this is Crow’s second year in the draft, so I think he has to sign.

by ken on Jun 9, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, crow seemingly lost a lot of leverage after last year

makes his strong stance seem questionable now.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 9, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was thinking that

although it doesnt have the same effect without bowden there. had they not fired him, they could probably cut, like, $5 million off strasburg’s signing bonus. no way he wants to spend a year pitching for fort wayne.

but now, eh, just another gm who will be forced to cave to boras’ demands. somebody yesterday same something along the line of “I think Strasburg will get a $15 million signing bonus, which is about $35 million less than Boras will ask for.”

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 9, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i read your comment wrong

i thought you were calling bowden a genius. shoulda known better.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Jun 9, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think they will, although

there are rumblings that Pittsburgh will take Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez and then spend huge money internationally.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 9, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jonathon Mayo at mlb.com

projects the Reds to take Alex White, although it sounds as if the Reds have discussed Jacob Turner, too. Mayo says Mike Leake remains a possibility.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 9, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

everything I know about amateur baseball players

I learned from Turtle. So, I’ll go with whoever he thinks.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 9, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

(major league wuss out move)

stand on our own and be accountable. you’re the GM, palsie, who do you select?

"We're going to Adonis, son"

jch24

by obc2 on Jun 9, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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