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18 game capsule, take 3

Guh.  On the one hand, a real kick in the gut, reminiscent of every other season where the Reds inevitable fall apart.  On the other hand, the club went 8-10 in a difficult stretch of games, with a strong AAA lineup.  Bomb Milwaukee now!

 

Star-divide

2009 Reds, Capsule 3

Overview:

Wins/Losses: 8 - 10 (PSA), 28-26 (YTD)

Strength of Schedule: .509, YTD (4th most difficult in NL; 5th most difficult in ML) [Prev: .512 YTD SOS, 5th most difficult in NL; 8th most difficult in ML]

RPI (ESPN): .512, YTD (6th best in NL; 10th best in ML)

[Prev: .523 YTD RPI, 3rd best in NL; 4th best in ML]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats, YTD): 19.9% [prev: 27.9%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on ELO concept): 16.9% [prev: 18.3%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats + PECOTA projections): 15.9% [prev: 14.4%]

Offense:

  • .243/.316/.406 (AVG/OBP/SLG) for the team for the period, compared to NL average of .261/.339/.417.
  • Submitted without comment: the 8 regulars for the period, based on most plate appearances: Hernandez, Rosales, Phillips, Gonzalez, Hairston, Nix, Tavares, Bruce.
  • Team carrier: Brandon Phillips at .327/.370/.735 for the period.  No one else was even close.
  • Except for a partial Joey Votto, who had 13 total bases in 14 at bats.
  • Semi-regulars Chris Dickerson and Ryan Hanigan were also pretty decent, posting period stand alone OPS totals of 860 and 930, respectively.
  • The other end of the spectrum was fuller: Jay Bruce with a .169 batting average and an OPS of 614; Alex Gonzalez bringing a 1.7% walk rate (league average: 9.8%) for the period to hit for an OPS of 621; Adam Rosales leveraged a slugging percentage of .209 into an OPS of .469; and my personal fav: Willy Tavares with 45 at bats, 3 walks, and 1 extra base hit for a period stand alone OPS of 386 (!).  If the Reds had played 9 Tavares's in the lineup, they would have scored 0.07 runs per game.  Holler at yer boy, Willy.
  • The Reds have 32 steals and 13 caught stealings for the year...exactly equal to league averages.
  • For all the injuries, this profiles as an average offense in most every way: average contact rates, average walk rates, nearly average RC/G.  The Reds probably play in an average offensive stadium, right?
  • Among players with at least three plate appearances, the top 4 OPS totals belong to: Votto, Nix, Phillips, and...some pitcher (Babe Ruth Micah Owings).

Pitching:

  • The bullpen!  Cordero, Masset, and Rhodes combined to give up zero runs.  Dave Weathers, who is washed up, gave up one run in this period.
  • The starters need their hoss to get back on his horse.  Aaron Harang was 2-2, but a 5.53 ERA in 24.1 IP.
  • Cueto and Arroyo were good (3.30 ERA and 3.07 ERAs, respectively), but strikeout rates are ominous: 5.6 per 9 IP for Cueto and only 4.3 for Bronson.  Gotta miss some more bats.
  • Mike Lincoln...3 ding dongs allowed in six innings.  Walt, I asked for his release in the last one of these.  Come on!
  • I also asked for Homer to get called up, but no one really remembers what I write, so no biggie.
  • Micah Owings has been brutal.  A 6.85 ERA in 19.2 IP, and the ERA is fully deserved...Batters hitting .309 off him, and Owings allowed 13 walks and 3 homers.  I know the bat mitigates some of this, but it's hard to win any of the games he pitches right now.
  • The defense keeps getting better.  The DER is now up to .708, which is 4th best in the NL and the ML.

The next 18:

  • 8 games at home, 10 on the road
  • 10 of the next 18 are against female teams, I mean American League teams.
  • 2 of the 18 against divisional opponents
  • 5 of the 18 against 2008 playoff teams
  • .446 average winning percentage (2009) for the teams in the next 18 games.
  • With the weak opponents coming up, this may be THE shot for the Reds to surge ahead.  However, with DH games and with Votto and Eddie being so iffy, this is far from a perfect scenario.  I'm looking for Bruce to break out, and I've got to assume that Gonzo has to improve soon (i.e. can't get any frakkin worse).
  • If I were GM: kind of a long shot out of nowhere here, but: Ryan Church is in the 4th level of doghouse in Queens.  And Jose Reyes is out for a couple months with a hammy.  Gonzo for Church, stick Church in RF and slide Bruce to center?  With Janish getting the full time starting job?  Not really a fair trade, I know, but the NY manager really hates Church.
  • Thanks for beating the Cubs and starting off the next 18 on a good note.  Let's get hot!

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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Comments

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Maloney > Bailey

Well, Bailey has had like 20 major league starts and sports a +6.50 e.r.a. (off the top of my head). Maloney has one good start……which counts as a quality start. I know it’s only one start……..but for me, he was more impressive in this one start than Homer has ever been at the major league level.

If Maloney can duplicate this a couple of more times, and considering the quality of pitching the Reds seem to have in Double AA and single A right now with Wood, Stewart and Fairel, I’d be ready to package Bailey in a trade for some offense. Seriously.

Personally, I’d trade Jay Bruce right now if the right trade came up. I know I’m in the minority on this one, but the guy frustrates the heck out of me. I predicted last year that Votto would be better long term than Bruce and so many people disagreed. Right now, I look pretty smart. I saw this coming. He can’t hit the breaking ball and they are pounding him inside with them, and he looks foolish swinging at bad pitches. Hopefully he corrects it and makes me look foolish.

by Dude Rock on Jun 7, 2009 2:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

All I can say is that you don't trade 22-year olds with his potential at his lowest point

you just don’t.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 7, 2009 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What if you could swap Bruce and Bailey for Ryan Zimmerman? You fill the 3B spot with a proven hitter and power hitter. We have plenty of OFers coming up. Heisey may be better than Bruce.

You people are hung up on his age. Just because he’s only 22 doesn’t mean he’s going to pan out anymore than some 24 or 25 year old. And Votto is the backbone of the offense, not Bruce. I think he’s been way overhyped. So many fans fall in love with guys and fail to see the huge holes in their games.

by Dude Rock on Jun 7, 2009 10:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hmmm
What if you could swap Bruce and Bailey for Ryan Zimmerman? You fill the 3B spot with a proven hitter and power hitter.

Interesting that you should pick Zimmerman since there were a lot people giving up on Zimmerman as a flop when he seemed to get worse as 23-year old last year. Now suddenly he’s a proven hitter.

We have plenty of OFers coming up. Heisey may be better than Bruce.

Heisey has 2 months in the minors that look anything like what Bruce did in the minors. The Reds have nobody who has hit anything like what Bruce did consistently in the minors. Why should we suspect they are any different than him? And I’m as excited about what Heisey has done this year as anyone, but the fact remains that he’s a 24-year old playing in AA. Bruce was 20 when he was putting up similar numbers in Triple-A.

You people are hung up on his age.

I’m “hung up” on his age because there are 6 players who are younger than Bruce who have an AB in the Majors this year. You may not think that age matters, but it does. Bruce has already destroyed the minors. Now he needs to learn to make adjustments. It takes time. There are bumps in the road with young players. It happens.

Just because he’s only 22 doesn’t mean he’s going to pan out anymore than some 24 or 25 year old.

Agreed. But the talent he has shown in the minors indicates that he is a lot more likely to pan out than most 24 or 25 year olds who still haven’t made it to the big leagues. You don’t give up on a player after basically one season.

And Votto is the backbone of the offense, not Bruce.

I don’t know anyone who would argue differently. I also don’t know why it’s relevant.

I think he’s been way overhyped. So many fans fall in love with guys and fail to see the huge holes in their games.

You are acting as if a 22-year old is a finished product and can’t make adjustments. Less than a month ago, Bruce was batting .267/.351/.564. Are you going to give up on a young player because he’s struggling for a month? Does he holes? Sure. What a surprise that a 22-year old wouldn’t be a finished product.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 7, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FJM'd

at the same time, I’ve always been skeptical on the “good because he’s young” thing. He’s being paid to be a major league player, just because he’s 22 doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the rights and responsibilities of a major league player. I don’t mean that as an attack, I’d like to think Mr. Bruce would tell you that himself.

Sure, he can improve, and likely will. He can also flame out. Encarnacion hasn’t become greatly better…EE largely is what he was when he was 22. A whole lot of folks would say Bailey regressed. And one can see late-bloomers like Dickerson who suddenly figure stuff out when they turn 26.

I know you’re not doing it, but I don’t like to rely on age as an indicator. Bruce is slumping, it happens, but I’m hoping his walks last night are a sign of turning it around. Because I’m irrationally optimistic that way.

by Cy Schourek on Jun 7, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying his age excuses his current failures

in the sense that yes, because he’s a Major Leaguer, he’s as responsible as any player. The reason age matters is because we shouldn’t be surprised when a 22-year old needs to work on some things. I can understand a desire to send him to the minors to do that work. Maybe that makes sense. But it appears that Dude Rock wants to dump him because he’s flawed now. We’re all flawed as 22-year olds. Some of us just didn’t have the opportunity to work through those flaws while people on the internet talked about it.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 7, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Age matters

Being young for the level of baseball you play is an incredible indicator of probable future success. All this Jayhate is ridiculous. Has anyone looked at the other OF candidates on the roster? I’m pretty sure Taveras, Nix, and Gomes are not going to be inducted into the Reds HOF. Bruce very well could. Play the kid and let him work it out.

"We're going to Adonis, son"

jch24

by obc2 on Jun 7, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Age
Just because he’s only 22 doesn’t mean he’s going to pan out anymore than some 24 or 25 year old.

Not in every single case, but in general, sure it does. If a 22 year-old has performed as well at the same level as the 24-25 year-old, the younger guy has demonstrated a more accelerated learning curve. And like Slyde said, he’ll have more time to correct the flaws in his game.

Another young OF that started to slump around this time last year was Justin Upton. He hit .123 in June and was on pace to strike out 190 times. But you don’t bench a talent like that for one bad month, and you sure as hell don’t trade him. Now he’s OPSing about a thousand and should play in the all-star game. Be patient, dude.

by ken on Jun 7, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jay is fine

fans forget the dramatic improvement he has made defensively.
Right now he is projecting to be plus 8 runs on defensive.
Even with this current slump he is almost right at league average offensively.
So you have a player that is a young 22- that is on track for a 3 WAR season or a season worth about 12 million dollars.

by davidmac84 on Jun 7, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not rec'd for misogynist comment

Church is on his second team where the manager hates him. There’s something wrong with him. I don’t want him.

The Nationals aren’t going to part with Zimmerman. He’s the face of the franchise.

by Daedalus on Jun 7, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

You just blew my mind. Brilliant.

"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."

by jch24 on Jun 8, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see no adjustments from Jay Bruce. It’s embarrassing. He has made ZERO adjustments. ZERO. Not good. And it sure takes alot to have an OBP of .300. Woo-hoo. I’m sorry. I’m not buying it. They need to make a change, send him down, whatever. Wake him up. He seems to refuse to change.

by Dude Rock on Jun 7, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

relax dude

take a breath. Jay Bruce is the most talented hitter the Reds have farmed since…Larkin? he has the ability to hit .300 and slug .550-.600 every season for the next 15 or so. you cannot expect him to do that right out of the gate though. the only people that do that are people like Ted Williams and Albert Pujols. is Bruce like Williams or Pujols? no. if you want to trade him because he’s not Pujols, then go right ahead.

i dont mean this as a personal attack, because although you havent been around here very long you seem like a great fella, but this is one of the stupidest ideas ive seen around here in a long time. i know it’s frustrating watching him right now, but give him some time.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 7, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about hitting the poor guy lower than 4 in the order!

I thought it was horrible that Dusty would hit Bruce in the 3 hole last year, and he continues to hit him high in the order this year too. When the guy struggles move him down in the order!

Hey Meat!

by chouteau on Jun 8, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nor do I mean to be insulting, but how does everyone know Jay is going to be alright? Do you have magic crystal balls?

by Dude Rock on Jun 7, 2009 8:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No, but do you have a crystal ball that says he isn't going to be alright?

I just think you’re overreacting to the bumps in the road in a young player’s development. More than he’s struggled, he’s shown at every level that he has the potential to be a great ballplayer. Why give up on him at age 21 and trade him away for pennies on the dollar and take the risk of him realizing that potential somewhere other than Cincinnati?

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Jun 7, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nobody has a magic crystal ball

Anything can happen. Who would have guessed that Joey Votto would end up on the DL with stress-related issues this season?

But the odds are that Bruce will be okay. It’s not like he’s a flash in the pan. He’s been a top prospect for years, and has performed accordingly. Chances are, he will continue to do so. It takes time to adjust to the big leagues, and every player goes into slumps sometimes.

This is the way it goes with young players. They get scouted, the league adjusts to them, and they have to make an adjustment in turn.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 7, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My balls aren't crystal, but I've been told they are magic

I think the reason most of us aren’t concerned is because you are basically talking about a bad month. Granted it’s been abysmal in terms of production, but it’s still just a month. And during that month, he has a .152 batting average on balls in play. Pitchers don’t have BABIPs that low typically. So some of what we’ve seen from Bruce has been bad luck on top of bad play, which makes him look terrible. But players have stretches like this from time to time, especially younger players who are still trying to make adjustments.

And you say that you don’t see adjustments from him, but I saw one in his at bat today. He took a much shorter swing on his double and actually hit the ball on a line. Hopefully that’s a sign of progress.

I wouldn’t give up on Bruce yet. He’s still got things to learn about the game and some adjustments are going to be harder than others. But he’s got super quick hands and incredible power for a kid his age. Once he gets that strike zone figured out, he’s going to be deadly.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 7, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm too tired to lay out the stats tonight but

Try comparing Bruce’s stats with those of two other young guys who came on the MLB scene at a similar young ages.

Bruce is on target do as well if not better in most major offensive categories (in his first full season) as did Mickey Mantle and Ken Griffey Jr., fans, managers and teamates were thrilled with these guys first year..why aren’t you with Jay’s?.

Tomorrow I’ll print out the stats and show you…Bruce is doing very nicely thank you.

It is inexcusable for scientists to torture animals; let them make their experiments on journalists and politicians. Henrik Ibsen

by Madville on Jun 7, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't bother

by age 22, both Griffey and Mantle were much better players than Bruce, particularly because they were both in their 4th full season.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 7, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not referring to specific ages, but rather: I am looking at comparing their 1st full season as MLB players.

Looking at Bruce vs M. and G. in their 1st full year as a MLB player is what I suggest comparing; whether they were 19 or 22 is fairly immaterial. 1st years are learning years for all young players and I believe that Bruce will compare on the plus side in most categories with any number of guys who went on to be very very good players..I think he’s doing very nicely, Thank you.

It is inexcusable for scientists to torture animals; let them make their experiments on journalists and politicians. Henrik Ibsen

by Madville on Jun 7, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

compared Bruce to Ken G 2nd year

the Kid at 20 was gold glove CF and wOBA was 370- Bruce is the top rated defensive RF in the NL and wOBA is 330. Not out of the question with a summer hot spell- Bruce could finish fairly close to Griffey’s 2nd year. Jay’s Zip forecast for the year is now at 349.
So he is not quite matching the pace of a HOF and maybe the player of his generation. But Jay is doing quite nicely in his 2nd year and is an extremely valuable player right now.

by davidmac84 on Jun 7, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We wil revisit this later in the season. I’m in the minority, but I’m not impressed with Jay Bruce.

And I may come across as arrogant, but I’m usually right in the long run.

by Dude Rock on Jun 8, 2009 1:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Can I use that second line for my sig?

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 8, 2009 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought you had it embroidered on your blankie.

"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."

by jch24 on Jun 8, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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