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Is it time to start looking trade?


With another disappointing game last night, our beloved Redlegs fall to 1-4 on this roadtrip.  Had you asked Jay Bruce, myself or any other Reds fan last Wednesday night after the Reds swept the Astros,  we would have told you no way we drop 4 out of 5 to begin this trip.  Of course since last Sunday, we have lost our best hitter Joey Votto and our 2008 All Star Starting Pitcher,  Edinson Volquez (again) to the 15-Day DL.   Edwin Encarnacion remains atleast a couple weeks away.  Willy Taveras hasn't played with a leg injury, and when he was put in the lineup last night, he wasn't healthy enough to run down a flyball, and will not start again tonight.  One of the Reds' better hitters in May, Jerry Hairston Jr. has been out sick the first two games of the St. Louis Series.  Our available bench has consisted of light hitting  utility guys like Paul Janish and Wilkin Castillo, with the only viable threats being Jonny Gomes and Micah Owings.  Dusty is absolutely trying to do the best with what he has to work with, but let's face it....right now, it isn't a whole lot.  If the Reds are serious about winning in 2009, it's time to start looking to make a move.  We have heard it time and time again from Walt , "We are always looking for ways to improve our ball club".  As Slyde pointed out in this great post yesterday, we are getting terrible production from LF and 3B, and with Joey Votto out, you can expect a slide at 1B as well.

 

Need some trade options?  Here are my top 5:

 

 

 

Star-divide

5.  Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles

  Luke Scott is an interesting case, he has played mostly DH for the O's this year, and is limited to LF, but I can't find any stats that say he is worse in left than say Josh Willingham.  Scott has ripped 11 homers in just 123 AB's this season, while still hitting .317.  The O's could use pitching, or some help at Shortstop.

 

4.  Josh Willingham, Washington Nationals.

  Willingham got off to a terrible start, not happy with the 600 outfielders on Washington's roster, forcing him into a platoon role.  He since has embraced the role, and has performed a lot better in May.  While his defense isn't much better than Jonny Gomes, Willingham would be a better 1B option than Gomes, and the guy had a ridiculous .303/.411/.684 line in May.  Washington wants and needs pitching, so the price could be a bullpen arm like Jared Burton + mid level prospect, or maybe even a guy like Ramon Ramirez.  The Nats just got Elijah Dukes back, so Willingham's P/T could be scaled back in Washington.

 

3.  Scott Hairston, San Diego Padres

  Adding a second Hairston could be very interesting for the Reds.  While he is only an Outfielder, he can play left or center, and has a great  .327/.385/.571 line. (including a 1.187 OPS against LHP, and a .802 OPS vs RHP).  Honestly I believe he could be had for a young, cheap arm like mentioned above.

 

2.  Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians

  By all accounts DeRosa is available.  Problem is he is getting paid 6.5 Million this year, and you have the Yankees, Cardinals, and most likely the Cubs and Brewers all interested.  So the price will be higher to acquire him.  We all know what DeRosa has done to the Reds over his career, and how versatile he is, being able to man 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, and the corner OF spots.

 

1. Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics

  So it's pretty obvious Holliday has been a small dissapointment for the A's.  Billy Beane is a smart guy though, and is not afraid to take risks. So why the A's may not win the trade with the Rockies, He may move Holliday to add to an already very nice and deep farm system. Of course for the Reds,  Holliday's 13.5 Million in salary for 2009 will be one of two huge hurdles, unless the A's take a bad salary back (not likely).  Obviously the other hurdle will be the players it takes to get him.  No doubt they would want Homer Bailey + another player or two.

 Personally, I feel the market for Holliday isn't going to be as big as some may think.  Of the teams currently in contention, with the exception of the Mets, Braves, and Reds,  they are all pretty well set in Left Field.  Of course an injury can always change that, but it will be hard for a lot of teams to take that kind of payroll on and miss the playoffs.  Obviously this is a move the Reds won't be able to make until mid-July, and it will only be made then if the Reds can get healthy and be able to hang around.  Can you imagine Holliday at GABP in the 2nd half of a contract year?  I bet the guy would put up 25 bombs after the all star game to get that massive Free Agent contract.  One plus, is Holliday will be a Type A Free Agent, so the Reds could get a nice extra draft pick for the 2010 draft.  

 

 

Did I miss anyone?  Any thoughs/observations?

Poll
Which guy would make the most sense for the Reds if you made the deal today?
Luke Scott
8 votes
Josh Willingham
16 votes
Scott Hairston
19 votes
Mark DeRosa
16 votes
Matt Holliday
56 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 44 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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First off, where is boobs?

It must always be an option.

I think people just need to start dealing with the reality that we will not contend this year. Why mortgage the farm?

"I lay my head on the railroad tracks, and wait for the double E"- Warren Zevon

by Colin Auscapee on Jun 3, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions  

I forgot boobs

I think you could pull of any of those deals except Holliday, and maybe DeRosa without giving up much of the farm. If this team is 100% Healthy, why couldn’t it contend? You add one of the above guys, and get Votto, and a HEALTHY Encarnacion to go along with our above average pitching, why couldn’t we make noise this year?

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Jun 3, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not enough hitting, even when healthy.

I can see you're not going to agree with me, so let's move on. - Bill Maher

by PeteyHendrix on Jun 3, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Man, I'd love deRosa

He’s just under-rated as a gap to gap hitter (although not under-paid, which is why I voted for the possible rental of Willingham, who could always be non-tendered at the end of the year)

by timb116 on Jun 3, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions  

de Rosa would be a great fit.

"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana

by Madville on Jun 3, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if you give up Homer, I think Holiday would do great at GAB!

and if Maloney isn’t going to be the real deal, go and get Pedro Martinez to be our #5. No one is breaking down his door. Or is this just the crack talking?

by chouteau on Jun 3, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions  

The cost to acquire Holliday

probably is cost prohibitive all the way around. His contract is hefty for the remainder of the year, Oakland will want top prospects (think Neftali Soto in any deal). Also, Billy Beane realizes the value of the two draft picks Holliday will bring in the 2010 draft. If the Reds are serious, though, Holliday is the guy to get.

DeRosa greatly interests me. Cleveland didn’t give much to get him, which is the fault of the Cubs. Would you give Burton and Juan Francisco for him? DeRosa could help quite a bit this season and net a pair of 2010 draft choices if he walks, which would be fine with me. Is that worth paying the rest of his $5.5 million contract? If Cleveland is smart, though, it will play the Reds against the Cardinals and any other team looking to acquire DeRosa, driving up the price to trade for him.

Scott is interesting, although he hasn’t played the field much this season. Of course, Baltimore has a loaded young outfield, forcing him into the DH role. He has hit well from both sides of the plate, which gives him an edge on Gomes, and is signed to a $2.4 million, one-year contract. Baltimore likely will want young IF prospects or, of course, an arm. Francisco? Burton? Roenicke?

Sticking with Baltimore, what about Aubrey Huff? He’s looking more like the medicore 2007 Huff than the 2008 standout, although he performed OK batting cleanup. If Votto is out for an extended period, Huff (33) can play 1B. He’s not good at 3B nor in LF, but can play either if need be. Huff is a free agent after the season and likely will be at least a Type B, quite possibly a Type A, meaning decent draft pick compensation is likely. He’s making $8 this year.

Hairston never had impressed me until this season, but finally might be putting it all together at age 29. He even hits well at Petco. San Diego needs essentially everything other than a 3B. That opens a lot of possibilites. Burton? Roenicke? Ramirez? Dorn? I’d hate to give Maloney, but no doubt any team the Reds deal with will ask for him.

Willingham’s already 30 and doesn’t do anything well enough to impress me as a difference maker, although his numbers are comparable to Huff’s at a lot less salary. Washington likely would have interest in the same prospects discussed above.

Good post MixFMKyle.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 3, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

wow would that be a much better lineup

Taveras/Dickerson cf
DeRosa 2B
Votto 1B
Phillips SS
Bruce RF
Encarnacion 3B
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Nix/Gomes LF
Pitcher

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Jun 3, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

im surprised at how low you think Francisco's value is

i dont like him much either, but i would imagine he is the kind of prospect (tons of power and a hand-cannon) that some teams would value quite highly. i can easily envision half the GMs in the game thinking Francisco is a better prospect than Soto.

as for DeRosa, no thank you. we already have Mark DeRosa-lite on the team, and at a third of the price.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 3, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm not as sold on Francisco, but he could be

better trade bait than I give him credit for being. I prefer Soto and Frazier myself, but then again in Francisco I might be trading away George Foster.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 3, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

i like Soto and Frazier better too

and it aint even close. but as you say, Francisco could be great, but i think he has a better chance of being Wily Mo Pena than George Foster.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 3, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree Turtle

I say you have to think at least Willingham or S. Hairston, and if you want to make a big splash and get fans excited and try to win it all you go get Holliday. Put him in the cleanup slot, move Phillips to 2nd in the order, slide Edwin back to 6th after Bruce you have a much improved lineup.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Jun 3, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you're right on about Holliday

He’s the ideal choice, but we’d have to give up half the farm to get him, and even then, it’s a half season rental unless they sign him to a long-term deal at trade time. Then again, if it all it takes is Soto and a few lesser prospects, they’ve gotta make that deal, but if they ask for 3 or 4 Soto-type guys, then can the Reds afford to do it?

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on Jun 3, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many of these prospects really ever pan out?

Maybe 5% at the most. Plus, the Reds should still have some money to pony up for a contract. It’s just a shame they couldn’t get a deal together in the offseason for a LF.

by chouteau on Jun 3, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

It all depends on the definition of "prospects" and "pan out."

Since 2000, here’s a look at, according to Baseball America, the Reds’ top 10 prospects who went on to play in the majors:

   2000 (8): Gookie Dawkins, Adam Dunn, Rob Bell, Ben Broussard, Austin Kearns, Jason LaRue, Antonio Perez, Brandon Larson.
   2001 (6): Kearns, Dunn, Dustin Moseley, Dawkins, John Riedling, Chris Reitsma.
   2002 (4): Willy Mo Pena, Edwin Encarnacion, Moseley, Larson.
   2003 (7): Ryan Wagner, Encarnacion, Brandon Claussen, Moseley, Joey Votto, Phil Dumatrait, Stephen Smitherman.
   2004 (6): Homer Bailey, Encarnacion, Votto, Todd Coffey, William Bergolla, Paul Janish.
   2005 (5): Bailey, Jay Bruce, Chris Denorfia, Votto, Travis Chick.
   2006 (5): Bailey, Bruce, Votto, Johnny Cueto, Janish
   2007 (5): Bruce, Bailey, Votto, Cueto, Josh Roenicke.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 3, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Votto were playing

I would say go for it this year. Since his status is a major unknown, I would wait and see. If he comes back and we are a few games back, I would trade some minor league talent. If it looks like he is going to be down for an extended period of time, I would wait till next season.

Jocketty’s Oakland A’s roots may make a deal for Holliday more feasible. He landed Big Mac and Mulder via the A’s while in St.L.

by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Jun 3, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions  

yes- I dont see Walt

making a move until Votto is playing and playing well. And if the Reds can stay in contention with Votto out of the lineup- that would be a pretty good omen for the rest of the season.
Of the players on this list- Holliday is the only one that would be a signficant upgrade over a Nix/Gomes LF platoon.
I think one reason Billie traded for Holliday is he thought he could get a similar package to what he gave up(Gonzales-DF CF, Greg Smith and Huston Street)- an approximate package from the Reds would be Stubbs, Maloney and Roenicke. I have a feeling Billie would want one of the AA players like Heisley or Frazier.

by davidmac84 on Jun 3, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I went with Willingham

He’d fit in welcome on this team while the Reds are still TBD on Votto, and Willingham can always hit, then slip to LF when Votto comes back. And the Reds have plenty of innings-eaters they can give up to the Nats. I say that it’s the best call.

But I think the Reds should stand pat for another 3 weeks or so. If they’re still 3-5 games out at the end of the month, then lets see them get an outfielder (or 3B…Beltre?) to run for it.

I’m still firmly on the Beltre bandwagon. Unfortunately, it looks like the Mariners are, too.

Ali Boombaye

by Cy Schourek on Jun 3, 2009 5:34 PM EDT reply actions  

I went with Willingham also

on the assumption Washington will be giving away Bowden’s collection of outfielders

by jacob brumfield on Jun 3, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dont see Willingham as an improvement

over Nix/Gomes platoon- so I think this would be a move like signing Taveras that actually will hurt the Reds.
Besides Holliday – the one other player that stands out on the list is Hairston. He has been a plus defensive OF and plus offensive player for his career and seems to be having a breakout year.
But he also seems like a player that San Diego would want to keep.

by davidmac84 on Jun 3, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can you really bank on the compensatory draft choices?

I don’t have a great feel for it, but it seemed that a couple of teams got burned during the offseason that way. That’s why I’m saying “No” to Holliday— I’d go that route if Votto were healthy and the Reds needed a boost to get over the hump.
I went Willingham as the best 1B option without spending much. I’m fearful that Jo-eh may need a full season (a la Zack Greinke). Unless I’m very confident about draft pick compensation, I can’t spend the money on DeRosa, so Willingham is the best choice at 1B.
Why give up anything at all if it can’t push the Reds to the playoffs?? Well, I worry that the psyche of this young team is too fragile to let them flounder on offense for the rest of the season. Willingham is something of a steadying, reliable offensive presence.

"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"

by "Red" Moskau on Jun 3, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Draft picks

To get draft pick compensation for a free agent, you have to offer them arbitration and they have to decline it. That’s where teams can get burned; if they’re expecting a player to decline arbitration and hit the open market, but then they accept. Now you have that player and whatever their ridiculously large salary is going to be, and no draft picks.

by Brendanukkah on Jun 3, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

you know what sucks about if joey needs the whole season

or anyother player with any other type of season ending injury. THe reds lose a year of his service time.

Bloop

by justin007000 on Jun 3, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Compensatory Draft Picks

Reds got burned by this with Weathers this offseason. Weathers said he was going to test the market. Reds thought he would sign with another team based on his comments, so they offered arbitration to get the compensatory picks. Weathers accepted arbitration and got a nice deal. Backfired a bit.

I have nothing against Weathers. He drives me crazy sometimes the way he makes innings interesting………but for the most part he gets the job done. Not bad for a reliever whose fastball tops out around 89 mph.

by Dude Rock on Jun 4, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Holliday and Derosa

I think these two guys would be solid acquisitions. Obviously, the Reds would only be able to afford one of them and both would come at a hefty price. The Reds would only acquire Holliday if they were still in contention by the deadline. Derosa makes more sense from a long-term standpoint since he is a utility man who doesn’t cost nearly as much as top Boras client Holliday. Having Holliday in left field would make this Reds team an easy favorite to win the division.

by fifawcs on Jun 4, 2009 11:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Hairston is a better player than Derosa

and they play similar roles so I really dont see the point.
Holliday is a different story but the Reds have to stay in the race and Votto needs to be healthy.
But if you trade for Holliday – you move Nix/Dickerson to CF- Taveras gets no playing time and the Reds would have an above average offense with a great defense.

by davidmac84 on Jun 5, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

U must be joking

Derosa is much better than Hairston. He plays solid D, can play almost any position, and puts up good offensive numbers. Hairston’s playing alright this year, but he is a terrible fielder.

Obviously, I would be much happier with a Holliday trade. I feel that the Reds are in the best position to get Holliday in this trade out of all the contenders. He would also benefit them the most, since their pitching is basically there. Nix/Dickerson can be pinch hitters or occasional starters. Keeping Taveras leadoff and in CF would be the better move because of his blazing speed. A healthy lineup could look like this:

CF Taveras
2B Brandon Phillips
LF Holliday
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
C Hernandez
SS Gonzalez
P

That would be a pretty solid offensive team.

by fifawcs on Jun 5, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Derosa

is for his career is around (7) UZR/150 at every infield position with the trend getting worse(hes 34).
Hairston is plus defensively except for SS- and this year is +14 at 3rd base which if you have watched Jerry has a great glove at 3rd.
Derosa projection on zips is 5 basis points higher than Jerry- but overall value Jerry clearly projects as the better player.
Taveras is horrible and shouldnt be on this team.
But I dont see Walt making a big move and the move may be in the opposite direction dealing Arroyo or Harang. And that may be the best strategy- with Votto uncertain- it may becoming close to building for 2010.

by davidmac84 on Jun 5, 2009 11:10 PM EDT reply actions  

No point

There’s no point in building for 2010 if you have a contending team in 2009. This team has among the best pitching staffs in the majors. The one thing holding them back is a solid offensive player. Holliday would be that guy and the Reds have plenty of guys in the farm to give up to acquire him. The way i see it, the SS position is pretty stacked in the farm. That could be a position the A’s are looking to build on. Homer Bailey should go while he still has some value. I never liked him from the start because he is mostly regarded for his highly impressive high school performance.

by fifawcs on Jun 8, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

regarding SS depth

we really dont have any depth at SS. im assuming you are referencing guys like Valaika, Frazier, Soto, and Cozart? in fact, only Cozart is a real SS. Valaika looks like he doesnt have the range, Frazier has already moved to 3B/LF and Soto has already moved to 3B. SS is one of the few positions right now where the Reds really lack depth.

3B on the other hand is a position where the Reds are swimming with prospects. Frazier, Francisco, and Soto all look like bona fide third baseman, not to mention the young 3B we already have on the club. if we are going to trade from an area of depth, it will be from 3B.

as for Holliday, i agree that if the team looks like it is 1 bat away from contending then we should go for it. but this team is more than just 1 player away right now. we have 3 positions that could stand a serious upgrade at SS, CF, and LF, and the truth is that we have prospects that are just a step away from taking over there. Stubbs looks like he’s ready to play CF in the bigs and Frazier could be in LF by September. we also have Alonso who could be starting at 1B next season, which could slide Votto to LF. Cozart is also doing well in AA, and could possibly be ready to take over at SS sometime next season.

now, im not counting on all of these prospects to turn into regular major leaguers. it’s probably safe to assume that at least half of these guys will never make an impact in the bigs. but it is still prudent to give them a chance. it would probably take all these guys and more to trade for already established players to take these positions on the big club if you want to go for it this season, or you could give these guys, as well as Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Owings, etc another season to grow and then go for it next year. i think the smart thing is to wait til next year. dont blow your load until youre good and ready.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 8, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

the Natl media has exaggerated holliday's decline

he’s had 1 bad month. Hitting .360+ last 20+ games. .900PS in may and has been great in june so far. Why would A’s want homer bailey? Their rotation is set for now and they have several other sp’s waiting in AAA. I believe during those long rumored blanton to reds deals, Bailey was a player they had no interest in. Holliday is hitting .300+ avg road games away from oakland, not a surprise since that ballpark suppresses offense. Put him in GABP the best hitting park other than coors and he’ll take off.

by Asfan4ever723 on Jun 6, 2009 3:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Holliday is at best...

…a middling outfielder. He’s hitting the way he is because he’s no longer in Colorado. Come on people, don’t any of you remember Dante Bichette? His BA this year? Heck, look at his career. On the road, he’s .282, .351, .457, and .808 OPS, whereas in Coors Field he’s .357, .423, .645, and 1.068 OPS. I’m surprised Oakland would waste money on someone like this. It goes against the entire organization’s philosophy. Holliday’s overpriced and overvalued (29 years old, $13.5 mill for an average/decent outfielder), and his salary is based on his past hitting performance in the equivalent of a cigar box with helium. Of all the players on that list, he’s the last one I’d waste my time on, because you know Oakland is going to be asking for a lot in return (knowing any team as dumb as they are to have/want him will then be able to extract several of your more talented draft picks and minor leaguers).

by tonywf on Jun 8, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why should we take his park into account when he played in Colorado, but not in Oakland?

Oakland is one of the best pitcher parks in the league. Surely that has to account for some of his lower numbers?

He has an OPS+ of 131 this year, and that’s after a terrible start. He’d basically be a .300/.400/.500 player in Cincinnati. Not sure how that is middling.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 8, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

We should definitely take into account where he's played, every year....

Holliday has a career OPS+ of 75 on the road (even with Oakland this year) and lower than that at the GABP. There is absolutely no guarantee that he’ll be a .300/.400/.500 guy in Cincy. In fact, he hasn’t been a .300/.400/.500 guy outside of Coors Field throughout his entire career (and hasn’t been in the small sample of ABs in Cincy so far in his career). I’ll say it again. His value, what value he has, is primarily the result of past hitting performance in the greatest offensive park in the history of baseball, which has thoroughly distorted his productive value with another team. He is not worth $13.5 million/year, and he is absolutely not worth the theft of talent that Oakland would command for any team foolish enough to want to trade for him.

by tonywf on Jun 8, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

My point was that his numbers this year would give him a .300/.400/.500 line in Cincinnati when you adjust for park

according to BBRef. I know it’s just math and all, but he’s still a very good player.

Also, I think you are misreading his OPS+ on the road. It’s not 75 in the sense that when he’s on the road he hits 75% of the league average. It is 75 because it is 75% of his total OPS. Yes, he benefited from playing in Coors, but he also had an OPS on the road of .892 and .860 for each of the last two seasons. And this year, it’s .868. And given that he was ice cold in April (.648 overall OPS), I think that’s pretty good.

All this being said, I agree that Holliday is not worth the cost to the Reds, though for different reasons. I think he’s still a very good player, and if he was signed for more than the rest of this season, I’d love to trade for him.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 8, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree I don't want Holliday

But looking at only home or road splits is a distorted view of a player. Why discount half of someone’s playing time? You always want to look at the larger sample size. This reminds me of one of Rob Neyer’s less enlightened columns, when he argued that Alfonso Soriano wasn’t a great player because of his mediocre road stats while withTexas.

In Holliday’s case it’s possible that he had difficulty adjusting to the new park (and league) after so many years in Colorado. After some early struggles, he’s resumed to playing at his normal level. He wouldn’t be the first guy to find success after leaving the Rockies (Walker, Burks, etc.).

by ken on Jun 8, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Generally, you're right....

…home/road splits are overstated, except when it comes to Colorado, because that is how big of a difference that park makes and how much it manipulates a hitter’s overall numbers and value. Holliday is a .350-plus hitter in Colorado, .280 everywhere else. To just say to heck with that, considering that it’s Coors Field, is to commit the same error the A’s did in getting Holliday and overpaying him by about $5-6/year for his services (the inflated value of which was a product of where he played half of his games while he was at Colorado). That a team like Oakland, with its ballpark and parsimonious efficiency-exploiting philosophy, could commit such a blunder tells me that they’re losing it (or else the buy low/sell high Billy Beane approach has become so standardized through MLB that the players they could find in the market seven years ago have been removed from that market by a wiser set of GMs).

And as for Burks and Walker, they had success before Coors Field. They were already established players, without the benefit of that place. We’ve had four years (or going into the fifth year) of Holliday, and we have a statistically significant enough of a sample size with him, too. I don’t think a .280/.350/.450 29 year old player at $13.5 mill/year, and the piracy of lost talent that would be the fee for any club that tried to trade for him, is worth it.

by tonywf on Jun 9, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have some objections

to your seeming to attach absolute values to a player’s production. Going from (let’s say) .350 in a high run scoring environment to .280 in a low run scoring environment doesn’t necessarily change a player’s value as much as one would think, if at all.

Also I just saw The Hangover and it’s pretty funny.

by Red Menace on Jun 12, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

None of the Above...

….people put too much stock in trades. You rarely get what you want, especially if you lack the talent to trade away (or have to give up too much to get what you want). Unless you’re trading for minor league talent, the best trades are the ones you don’t make. Somehow, I doubt anyone wants to trade for some A and AA players/pitchers, for 2011. So, I say you should have an option for none of the above.

by tonywf on Jun 8, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions  

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Reds reach Minor League deal with Jeff Francis | reds.com: News
"He’s a guy I’ve always liked," Baker said. "I think he’s a great addition...
Johnnie B. Baker and the Legend of Knifey-Spoony
Reds sign Ryan Ludwick

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Beat Reporters

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