Like one of those belated birthday cards you used to get from your aunt, this latest Reds rundown is neither exciting nor filled with cash.  Also, it’s late.  Now—on to the business of explaining in gruesome detail how the Reds went 7-11 against a very weak slate of opponents.  All stats are through Friday’s games.

2009 Reds, Capsule 4

Overview:

Wins/Losses: 7 - 11 (PSA), 35-37 (YTD)

Strength of Schedule: .484, YTD (16th most difficult in NL; 30th most difficult in ML) [Prev: .509 YTD SOS, 4th most difficult in NL; 5h most difficult in ML]

RPI (ESPN): .485, YTD (12th best in NL; 24th best in ML)

[Prev: .512 YTD RPI, 6th best in NL; 10h best in ML]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats, YTD): 6.3% [prev: 19.9%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on ELO concept): 6.9% [prev: 16.9%]

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats + PECOTA projections): 10.2% [prev: 15.9%]

Offense:

• .220/.295/.332 (AVG/OBP/SLG) for the team for the period, compared to NL average of .254/.321/.401.
• The runs created per game "stat" is a Bill James creation that attempts to extrapolate a single player's numbers into a team context.  With a large enough sample size, it tends to work pretty well for players with non-extreme performances.  Occasionally, I'll put the numbers together for an 18-game segment, and the RC/G stat will return a negative number-invariably connected a batter with one or two games worth of numbers, or a pitcher, or some other small sample.  Wait, did I say "invariably"?  I present to you, Willy Tavares, June 6-26:
• 14 G, 61 PA, 8 hits, 0 BB, 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS, 15 K, 2 GDP, 2 SH.  .136 Average, .136 OBP, .169 SLG, .305 OPS...-1.47 RC/G, which is less than zero like whoa.
• In non-related news, Chris Dickerson managed a 942 OPS over the same period in 44 PA.
• Of the 8 players with the most plate appearances during this period, only two had OPS's over 700: Jonny Gomes (1260) and Ryan Hanigan (817).
• 11 home runs for the team in this 18 game stretch
• Because I know you all love consistency: Alex Gonzalez's OPS, period by period: 461, 562, 621, 579.  Like a Rolex.
• Jay Bruce's BABIP for the season: .201, after a .188 mark in this last period.
• Speaking of Mr. Bruce, he has been essentially an average player for the season, despite his unusual stat line.  I'm expecting a monster 2nd half from the guy.
• Welcome back, Joey.

Pitching:

• 2nd straight period of worse-than-average ERAs.
• On a period-by-period basis, this was the first in which the team K/9IP rate fell below 6, which tends to be my benchmark for success.
• Among starting pitchers, only Aaron Harang had a PSA ERA below 4.  However, when you look at expected ERA, based on peripherals, no one had cause to write home to Mom: Harang-4.81 xERA, Arroyo-6.75, Cueto-5.54, Owings-6.22, Maloney-6.06
• In addition to the K rate falling, the HR/9IP has spiked.  After resting around 1 HR / 9 IP all season, the team allowed 1.5 HR / 9 IP in this period.
• The bullpen overall was solid, although perhaps a bit down from their previous level of wow.   I thought Masset and Weathers pitched well, in particular.
• Speaking of Masset, his YTD ERA of 1.82 speaks for itself.  His xERA of 0.92 ain't bad either.
• I was wondering if the Reds have a higher percentage of wins that result in saves for the bullpen than the rest of the league.  The answer = not especially so (54% for the Reds, 52% for the NL).
• The defense continued at its high rate (.708 DER; 3rd best in NL, 4th best in ML), which raises the question: if the 2009 Reds, sans-Votto and with the recent stretch of poor pitching, still had the 2008-level defense, would my head explode or just melt?

The next 18:

• 9 games at home, 9 on the road
• Mercifully see an end to inter-league play with two against the Tribe.
• 6 of the 18 against divisional opponents
• 7 of the 18 against 2008 playoff teams
• .493 average winning percentage (2009) for the teams in the next 18 games.
• An all-star game.  I imagine CoCo will get an all-expenses paid trip to St. Louis for his efforts.  Maybe Cueto.
• Looking back, how do you evaluate the last stretch of games?  Without their best player, rotation seemingly falling apart, their 2nd best player unable to shake his case of the Kingmans, 3rd baseman still on the shelf...was the 7-11 record good or bad, given the competition?  How much does inter-league play contribute to the struggles?
• If I were GM: I think I would sit tight at least until the All Star break.  Theoretically, I'm one hot week from being in first place, and Votto looks like he's good to go.  If the rotation is really falling apart, I'm screwed anyway and won't be able to overcome it with any quick moves.  Homer stays up at the MLB level for the remainder of the season, as a long man out of the pen if necessary.  Dickerson is the new starting CF, per the memo I just wrote to the field manager.  Hanigan keeps getting at-bats.  Otherwise, I think we play out the next 3 weeks and re-evaluate.