Graph of the Day: This Offense Really Hurts

by Slyde on Jun 25, 2009 12:58 PM EDT in Features

I don't reference WPA (Win Probability Added) much, but this post at Viva El Birdos struck me as an interesting way to look at the contributions of both the offense and defense to a team's wins. For those that are unfamiliar, WPA represents the change in win probability from the start of a play to the end of a play for each play in a game. The probabilities are based on historical games and the frequency with which a team will win a game given the specifics of that situation in the game (i.e. inning, base runners, outs). It's a different way to look at who did what in the game by taking the context of the situation into account.

From time to time, people reference WPA for individuals, which I'm not a big fan of mainly because I don't like how win probability is divided up to only batters and pitchers. However, I do think it is useful at the team level to identify contributions made on each side of the ball.

For instance, as you can see from the graph above, the pitching and fielding have consistently contributed positively to the team as the season progresses, though they have slipped up a bit over the last week. The offense, however, has clearly been a hindrance. Except for a stretch in early May when they were actually a positive force, and an equal stretch at the end of the month when they were just not doing damage, the offense has been a drag on this team from day one.

I know none of this is new to most of you, but seeing it in graph form this way really struck me as to the degree with which the offense has been a drain. It's a shame to see so much good pitching and defense go to waste.

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fielding?

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com

by JinAZ on Jun 25, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

pitching and fielding

I said defense because I didn’t want people to think that it was really all pitching…guess I could have picked a better word, eh?

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 25, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I see

You did emphasize defense, which is correct. But you said pitching a few times too, though, and my eye focused on that for some reason. :)

The reason I mention it is that I have the Reds’ fielding as best in the league right now, but pitching is a bit closer to average (8th in the league).
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/24/923956/btb-power-rankings-through-tuesday
I think it’s the fielding that’s the reason that the Reds are as good as they’ve been, with a bit lesser help from the pitchers. I’m not saying the pitching hasn’t been good, it’s just that the fielding has been outstanding.
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com

by JinAZ on Jun 25, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I updated the pitching references to say "pitching and fielding."

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 25, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

holy cow

Really? The Reds’ fielding is the best in the league? While the pitching is mediocre?

My mind is boggled. The best in the league…with all the injuries and substitutions and all?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 25, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, by two measures

bUZR ranks the Reds’ fielding, by a non-significant margin, at +22 runs (essentially tied with the Pirates).

THT’s batted ball-based stat ranks them best at +15 runs (if you convert from plays) over the Dodgers (at +14, which again is not significantly different).

I average those two in the power rankings.

By simple DER (which is the worst measure of these three), they rank 3rd at 0.712 behind the Cubs (0.718) and Dodgers (0.715).

The team has had terrific fielding. Pitching’s good, but hasn’t been as great as their ERA would indicate.
-j

My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com

by JinAZ on Jun 25, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

huh

Maybe Dusty’s a genius after all. Who needs the slick-fielding Janish, when your fielding is already the best?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 26, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe someone could show this to Dusty...

But take the numbers out. Just show him the pretty colors and tell him what the lines mean, and explain the fact that the red line is trailing down like that is not good. Maybe add like a “Danger, Danger!” notation in the lower right hand corner.

"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"

by Ash on Jun 25, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

"It looks like a crocodile mouth! Damned crocodile ain't never brought me no pheasant!"

"Power guys like Giambi and Dunn have always had high OPS because no one wants to pitch to them. But it takes two hits to score them from first." -- Harold Reynolds

by jch24 on Jun 25, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe we could e-mail him a PDF so he can open it on his lap top.

You know all he’s doing with that thing is watching “Monkey Farts” videos.

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans

by Farneyismycopilot on Jun 25, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll volunteer to go with you.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Jun 25, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

THREAD JACKED

It seems conversation on RR has been scattered into too many places, even as participation is declining. This makes for erratic, ADDish RRing.

I propose a radical solution. Mod approval on all fanposts.

After all, this is Red Reporter.

"I lay my head on the railroad tracks, and wait for the double E"- Warren Zevon

by Colin Auscapee on Jun 25, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions

Wow..this chart is depressing

I think my Co-Ed Softball team could put up better offensive numbers than the Reds’ hitters right now.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Jun 25, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

This should have been a Fanpost!

"We're going to Adonis, son"

jch24

by obc2 on Jun 25, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions

Tonight will be different

Major overhaul to the lineup….okay, maybe not:
Taveras 8
Hairston Jr. 5
Phillips 4
Votto 3
Gomes DH
Hernandez 2
Bruce 9
Janish 6
Dickerson 7

Cueto 1

v …

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 25, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

Well, I like the Phillips-Votto-Gomes bit

Dickerson’s batting 9th? FTH?

by Brendanukkah on Jun 25, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, swap Virus and CDick

I’d also swap Bruce and Raymoan.

"Power guys like Giambi and Dunn have always had high OPS because no one wants to pitch to them. But it takes two hits to score them from first." -- Harold Reynolds

by jch24 on Jun 25, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

After we get through the lineup the first time, we can pretend CDick is leading off.

"Sir, can you please put your pants back on?"

by Ash on Jun 25, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

You see this stuff in high school baseball and softball ... putting a decent hitter at the bottom

so that you can possibly have a leadoff hitter-type available to kick start the top of the lineup in later innings. It rarely works (unless the other team sucks).

Congrats Dusty, you’re running the Reds like they’re the JV squad at Mason.

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans

by Farneyismycopilot on Jun 25, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

except the virus wouldn't make mason's JV squad

Nobody listens to Andrew

by nlt-andrew68 on Jun 25, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Here's a non abre metric anaylsis from Uncle Mads.

Taveras 8 – WTF – if you are going to have C- Dick in the lineup, why fuck with ‘Outman’
Hairston Jr. 5 – Check
Phillips 4 – 5th would be better why not Gomes
Votto 3 = This guy should eventually be the full time cleanup hitter – 2nite I’d bat him 5th
Gomes DH – better 4th than 5th
Hernandez 2 – This guy needs a rest
Bruce 9 – good move Dusty
Janish 6 – Even better move
Dickerson 7 – Hanigan should be in this line up and wily on the bench

Cueto 1

Blows me away that Hanigan is going to rot on the bench…I don’t know if Haniganman could have kept it up but a manager should always always always go with the hot hand. Always damn it.

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.
George Carlin

by Madville on Jun 25, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!

(that was a loud, frustrated arg, directed at Dusty, not the friendly pirate hello)

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Jun 25, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I think I've finally snapped about Dusty

I’ve just spent the last 15 minutes since posting that complaining to a co-worker about this lineup. Lance put it best last night when he said this team doesn’t have a margin of error big enough to overcome Dusty’s shortcomings here! Honestly, Taveras?

And another thing Dusty
"A lot of it is timing," Baker said. "We went to the cage today and worked with his timing and rhythm, more rhythm than timing. He’s going to get it. I told him if we have to go out there every day, we will."
Really… you’re going to make him go to the batting cage EVERY DAY until he figures it out? Every day? That’s a lot to ask for for the measly $2.25M he’s being paid this year!

I’m now fully on board – Dusty’s gotta go!!!

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Jun 25, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions