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Ryan Hanigan Proclaims to Runners that Thou Shalt Not Steal

I don't know the religious affiliation of Ryan Hanigan, but he sure takes the 8th Commandment very seriously.  This season he has been tremendous at keeping base runners at bay, throwing out 56% of the runners who have tried to steal on him.  That rate is easily the best in the Majors for any catcher who has caught at least 25 innings this season. 

I was interested in precisely how much Hanigan has helped his cause with his arm.  A couple of people have devised methods for measuring the value of a catcher's arm, but I felt like they were a little short, especially given the data that is currently available to us.  So, I decided to take a stab at it myself.  I based some of what I did off of Chone Smith's work at BBTF back in 2005, and I don't know if he's updated it, but I felt like it could be improved upon in a spot or two.  Here are the results that I came up with.

Runs Saved by Catcher Throwing Arms
Rank Player Tm Inn SBO SB CS

CS
Catch

CS% CS Runs PO Runs Rep Runs Net Runs Saved RSAA
1 Ryan Hanigan CIN 279.2 449 8 10 10 56% 2.88 0.88 0.14 3.90 5.29
2 Yadier Molina STL 475 752 11 9 5 45% 0.11 1.76 0.38 2.25 4.58
3 Ivan Rodriguez HOU 417.2 670 10 9 7 47% 1.18 0.44 0.32 1.94 4.02
4 Gerald Laird DET 431.2 662 21 12 12 36% 1.29 0.44 0.12 1.85 3.90
5 David Ross ATL 191.1 292 13 11 9 46% 1.49 0.44 -0.08 1.85 2.76
6 Henry Blanco SDP 206 335 15 9 9 38% 1.11 0.44 -0.04 1.51 2.55
7 Kenji Johjima SEA 208 334 13 11 9 46% 1.49 0.00 -0.04 1.45 2.49
8 Rob Johnson SEA 262.1 407 18 9 8 33% 0.10 0.88 -0.02 0.96 2.22
9 Ramon Castro NYM 36 321 8 7 6 47% 1.12 0.00 0.08 1.20 2.20
10 Rod Barajas TOR 425.2 616 27 12 10 31% -0.73 0.88 -0.02 0.13 2.04
Other Reds
21 Ramon Hernandez CIN 287.1 452 19 10 5 34% -1.41 0.88 -0.02 -0.55 0.85
Bottom 5
79 John Buck KCR 173 304 22 2 2 8% -3.30 0.00 -0.08 -3.38 -2.44
80 Victor Martinez CLE 259 420 27 3 3 10% -3.81 0.00 -0.06 -3.87 -2.57
81 A.J. Pierzynski CHW 439.2 726 37 3 1 8% -6.59 0.00 0.08 -6.51 -4.26
82 Jason Varitek BOS 419.2 681 47 11 6 19% -6.29 0.00 -0.24 -6.53 -4.41
83 Nick Hundley SDP 353 553 40 4 3 9% -6.28 0.00 -0.14 -6.42 -4.70

Glossary: Inn - innings as catcher; SBO - plate appearances with runner on 1st or 2nd and the next base open; CS Catch - caught stealing where the catcher gets an assist; CS Runs - net runs saved on steal attempts; PO Runs - runs saved by catcher pickoffs; Rep Runs - runs saved based on catcher reputation; Runs Saved - total runs saved; RSAA - runs saved above (or below) the average catcher

As you can see, Hanigan has been a badass with his arm this year.  Saving 5 runs may not seem like a lot, but we're just over a third of the way into the season and Hanigan has only played in half of the innings , and yet he's still saved 5 runs over an average catcher in that same amount of playing time.  Granted, he's likely to regress as the season continues, but to this point, he's been the best throwing catcher in the Majors.  It's especially exciting to see his name above two of the greats in the game.  Not bad for a rookie.

Ramon Hernandez has also thrown out quite a few runners himself, but he's not really in Hanigan's league so far this season.  You'll also notice former Red David Ross in at #5.  In limited playing time he's having one of his best seasons ever throwing out base runners.

For those that are interested in how the sausage is made, I'll explain my methodology after the jump.

Star-divide

First of all, I took the obvious path of calculating the run value of each catcher's stolen bases allowed versus their caught stealings where the catcher got an assist.  This is a little different than what Smith did back in 2005, because he included all caught stealings, which means he included pick off-caught stealing, which the catcher does not get an assist on.  Like Smith, I used the linear weight run values for SB (-0.19 runs) and CS (0.44) runs to tally up those values.

The next thing I added that Smith did not have, mainly because it wasn't available back then, is pick offs by the catcher.  I gave those the same run value as a caught stealing since it is essentially the same thing.

Finally, like Smith, I thought that it was important to give the catcher credit for his reputation.  In his prime, Johnny Bench didn't throw out a lot of runners, but that was mainly because people stopped running on him.  Obviously there is some great value in that.  There are a couple of differences in the way that I calculated reputation value though.  First, Smith estimates the number of expected stolen base attempts based on catcher innings.  Thanks to Baseball-Reference, we can be a little more precise.  Now we know just how many times a catcher had to face a runner on 1st or 2nd with a base open in front of them.  Using this information, we can estimate the number of runners who choose not to attempt a steal against a catcher compared to the rate at which a base runner attempts a steal against an average catcher.  This net value will give us an indication of how comfortable runners are at attempting to steal against a specific catcher.

The second difference in the reputation value calculation that I came up with is that I don't credit the catcher with keeping a double play in tact, rather I credit him with saving the runs that an average catcher would give up in those extra opportunities where the runner does not run.  For instance, if a catcher has 400 stolen base opportunities and runners only attempt to steal 5% of the time compared to a league average of 10% (for instance), then that catcher's reputation has stifled the running game by 20 steal attempts.  If the average base stealer is successful 75% of the time, then theoretically that catcher has prevented 15 extra stolen bases as well as 5 caught stealings.  Using linear weights, this catcher's reputation saved his team 0.65 runs.

NOTE: Obviously, depressed or increased stolen base attempts aren't all the fault of the catcher.  Some catchers are lucky enough to catch multiple pitchers with excellent pick off moves, so they could be benefiting from that.  Also, there is the issue of game situations.  Catchers who frequently catch in blowouts are probably less likely to have stolen bases attempted on them.  I know this reputation metric isn't pristine, but as you can see it's also not a very big chunk of the pie either.  I feel like it's still a good way to boost up numbers for a catcher like Yadier Molina whose reputation clearly keeps him from throwing out more runners.

I totaled all of these run values up to get a net runs saved value and then compared it to the average catcher rate for that player's playing time (based on SB Opportunities).  That is how I get the Runs Saved Above Average value.

I'm interested in hearing what critiques you might have of this, so please fire away.  I'm sure I've probably recreated the work of somebody out there, but I wanted to do this my own way just for the fun of it.  If you feel like there is something that I've left out or someone who does it better, please point me to their work because I'd love to continue to refine this.

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Comments

Display:

David Ross #5?

"We're going to Adonis, son"

jch24

by obc2 on Jun 16, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I wonder how long it will take

for Hanigan to get a real reputation as someone not to run on.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 1:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would imagine word has already spread, same with Bruce's arm

Check your email, btw.

"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."

by jch24 on Jun 16, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I got slammed with work, so it's not going to happen.

I thought I could hide for a few more days, but they found me…

Hopefully others will witness the punch and report back.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and Happy Bloomsday to that stupid mick Hanigan and to everyone else

I’d remind all of you to wander around your towns aimlessly and scornfully, getting drunk and picking fights with soldiers, but we all know that’s not necessary.

Will you stop it with the vegetables

by Man Mountain on Jun 16, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's be honest.

Have you actually finished Ulysses?

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

twice

finnegan’s wake is the joyce work i pretend to have finished

Will you stop it with the vegetables

by Man Mountain on Jun 16, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about 'Portait' ? Peolly not syboloci enough for you...

I found it amusing but its been a while since slogged through it.

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just for being drunk?

well i’ll be. i guess youre right.

You're so 2000 and late

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 16, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey since I'm going to the game tonight this seems lome a perfect spot for the Female Athlete of the Game

http://rds.yahoo.com/ylt=A0WTb1.6TdKNFIBQDajzbkF/SIG=12vqphrc0/EXP=1245264638/**http%3A//cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/AFP_Photo/2006/02/21/1140533602_1925.jpg

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that was worse than my Joyce imitation

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tanith Belbin US Olympic Silver medalist - figure skaing Pairs

that’s her above in the preceding post and oh she can skate good too

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow..you know eveything about sports

You, sir are correct!

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know everything about sports

You, sir are correct!

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you should call people stupid micks

it’s not very nice

You're so 2000 and late

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 16, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm allowed to

because I’m a potato

Will you stop it with the vegetables

by Man Mountain on Jun 16, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

is this one of those things like

“hey man it’s cool! my best friend is black!’

You're so 2000 and late

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 16, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no, it's more like

“hey man it’s cool, centuries of my ancestors have been slaughtered by those papist wolves”

Will you stop it with the vegetables

by Man Mountain on Jun 16, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Twelvers?

Do you also have a branch of your family who was part of the Sunni Awakening and have some major Shi‘a grudge as well? I’ve never heard Twelver in a different context

by Cy Schourek on Jun 16, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what?

didnt the Protestants eat taters too?

You're so 2000 and late

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 16, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and this lines up with my impression of Hernandez

It’s been my impression that he’s not very good at catching base stealers, but he’s caught quite a few runners off base with pickoff moves.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Of course Hanigan is great

You don’t get to be Joey Votto’s best friend just by SuperPoking him on Facebook.

by Brendanukkah on Jun 16, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Too bad that when Joey comes back, intsead of trying Raymoan at 3rd..

He’ll be behind the plate and HaniganMan will be on the bench everyday but Arroyoyday.

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Votto's Return + Hanigan's Development = Dog Hernandez's Benching?

Super piece of work, Slyde. It needed to be “said.”

by Mr. Redlegs on Jun 16, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No way.

Ramon is the catcher.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And trasitively, Dusty is a poor judge of talent.

I can see you're not going to agree with me, so let's move on. - Bill Maher

by PeteyHendrix on Jun 16, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

*transitively

I can see you're not going to agree with me, so let's move on. - Bill Maher

by PeteyHendrix on Jun 16, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a question

If I have a pizza with the radius of “Z” and thickness of “A”, how would I figure the volume?

"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."

by jch24 on Jun 16, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

a nerd pun!

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Have your stomach pumped AFTER you eat it.

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

tangentially related

Reds draft pick Mark Fleury © is playing right now on ESPN 2. I did not realize that he’s thrown out 32 of 47 attempted base-stealers this season.

Will you stop it with the vegetables

by Man Mountain on Jun 16, 2009 3:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

and he's copyrighted!

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

Also a brief look at the 160's Band of the Game THE RUINS

THOSE WERE THE DAYS…

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What happens when one compares

Sacrifing Vs Double plays in those same situations..esp. at the MLB level.
Esp. with a runner on 1st. I am not equipped to even properly submit the question let alone figure the answer..a little help here..Please?

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure what you are asking

but part of the reason that I didn’t want to use DP opportunities is because we know nothing about the base/out situation. Preventing a steal of 3rd with 2 outs doesn’t exactly involve the possibility of a DP.

As I told Justin from Basement Dwellers, who I need to thank immensely for letting me bounce ideas off of him, if you are going to judge the value of preventing an SB attempt on the fact that it leaves the DP in order, then you also need to consider the value of a runner not being advanced a base, which starts making things more complicated. Also, you have to consider too that even an average catcher would throw out a few of those base runners that chose not to run, so there is some negative value too to stifling the running game, though it is definitely outweighed by number of stolen bases that would happen.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 16, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ahhh - just as I thought!

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually what I was asking is if you let the batter swing away in all of the situations that were just reviewed instead of sacrificing what would the outcome be projected to be.

Replace sacrifice with swing away..is there a quantifiable improvement in productivivty.

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Taveras back batting leadoff...

The lineup (with two catchers!) via Fya:

Willy Taveras cf
Alex Gonzalez ss
Brandon Phillips 2b
Laynce Nix lf
Ramon Hernandez c
Jay Bruce rf
Jerry Hairston Jr. 3b
Ryan Hanigan c
Aaron Harang p

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on Jun 16, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

and 5 players with an OBP under .320 (Ramon is at .322)

When Brandon Phillips is your 2nd best on base getter oner, well, you’ve got troubles.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 16, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

highest OBP is #8, right?

Thank God we have someone who can bunt him over

by Cy Schourek on Jun 16, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

With rain coming

I hope it doesn’t smear the autograph on my shirt. :)

"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."

by jch24 on Jun 16, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Fay

has good news about Votto, EE, and Voltron.

He thinks Votto will start a minor league rehab assignment this week.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 16, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A few questions

Are there different linear weights for stealing second versus third?

Any penalties built in for errors on throws that allow the runner to advance an extra base?
  
Also, curious where Joe Mauer ranks.

by ken on Jun 16, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

These are cumulative linear weights, so no

I’m sure you could if you wanted to, but that requires looking at gamelogs and such because if you are going to do that, you really need the entire base-out state.

No penalties for errors, but there should be. I’ll try to track down those numbers. I’m not sure they are broken out separately anywhere (that is, throws on SB attempts as opposed to other throws).

Mauer ranks 13th at 1.63 RSAA. He’s only caught 264 innings, 15 less than Hanigan even.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 16, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hanigan + Hernandez rule

I didn’t realize Hanigan’s numbers were that good. He is great. Regardless of their stats, though, I have to pay homage to Hernandez and Hanigan. During the Milwaukee series of shame, I said, during a Hernandez AB, “if you hit a two run homer, I will love you forever”. Lo and behold, he did! So I have to “love” him forever. A few games later, I said the same for Hanigan, but in his case, I was only asking for a base hit, which he prodcued lol.

In short, I must “love” the catchers we have “forever”, or at least until this season is over.

Poodle

by Red_Poodle on Jun 16, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm intrigued by this theory

Tell Mike Lincoln that you’ll love him forever if tackles Willy Taveras off the top of the Roebling Suspension Bridge. He’ll do it, because that’s how your powers work, the team will be rid of two of its more burdensome contracts and piddling players, and “forever” will take no longer than 15 seconds.

Win.

by Brendanukkah on Jun 16, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ashbakerlovechild?

I must know to what this refers lol. I hpope it’s not a combination of Dusty Baker and Ash form “Evil Dead”. That would be interesting though.

by Red_Poodle on Jun 16, 2009 5:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I *heart* Hanigan (not Huckabees mind you)

Thanks, that is great! I guess ‘ashnarronlovechild’ does make the search easier. This makes me want to make bold predictions…

As for Brendanukkah’s request, it is tempting, but I wouldn’t want to use my “powers” such as they are for such a brutal purpose lol. For all I know, it only works on Hanigan and Hernandez. I’ll let you know if I get any other “hits”.

Poodle

by Red_Poodle on Jun 16, 2009 9:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's a question

Slyde, this is pretty awesome. I’ve never seen it done and I wouldn’t have known where to start.

You placed the same value on catcher pick off’s as you did CS’s, suggesting that they amount to the same thing. True, a runner picked off at first yields the same result as a runner caught stealing second. But if the attempt by the catcher is unsuccessful, the results are quite different: a runner remains at first (failed pick off) or a runner stands at second (failed CS). Does that play into the equation at all?

by ben nevis on Jun 17, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yes

A failed caught stealing is a stolen base, so the catcher gets docked 0.19 runs. That doesn’t happen on a failed pick off attempt. So, a caught stealing is theoretically a net gain of 0.63 runs for the catcher, but a pick off is just 0.44 runs gained.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 17, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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