How patient are you?

by Dude Rock on Jun 15, 2009 7:51 PM EDT Comment 39 comments

This is a different kind of post. This is not a rant or vent. This is a question for the posters on this site.

How patient are you? Would you rather stand pat, with Votto and EE coming back in the next 2 weeks, and avoid trading any of the farm system..........OR.........are you saying we are so close let's make a trade and go for it?

I get impatient, but I have followed the farm system closer the last 2 years than I ever have. I would hate to trade anyone named Heisey, Frazier, Wood, Stewart, Soto, Stubbs, Bailey, Maloney, Fairel, Alonso, Cozart, and others..............and even the current draft has me excited to see Leake and others.

It's been a long time, but I say stand pat. This could just be a bad stretch, and things could get better soon. Maybe Bruce makes adjustments. Votto returns and gives the team a shot in the arm offensively. Hopefully the team-wide slumps are the worse they get all season. The rest of June will say alot. We do play most of our games on the road this month.

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i dont think we need to make any big trades

we just need to more efficiently deploy the talent we already have.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 15, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And we need to know the feasibilty of inner ear transplants.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jun 15, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A small trade couldn't hurt

We could get someone without dealing any of the guys above.

by homerun21 on Jun 15, 2009 8:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If I could read walt's mind

I think he wants to see if he can get Votto on the field and playing well before he decides which direction to go.
Bailey, Stubbs, Maloney should be up this year.
Frazier, Heisey will be pushing for a roster spot next year with Wood and Stewart at AAA for a possible mid season 2010 callup.
This division looks very winnable with a 500 win % will keep you in the race deep into September.
I think if you go for the division- you make a big trade- Holliday.
If this is not your year- you seriously think about trading both Arroyo and Harang- see what Bailey and Maloney have for the rest of the year.

by davidmac84 on Jun 15, 2009 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is it just me?

I don’t see how the Reds trade Harang.

I’m not saying that he’s a legitimate ace (he’s pretty close) and I’m not saying that his talents won’t erode over the next 2.5 seasons (they might). I just think that with the Reds closer to October baseball (October 2010 and 2011, mind you) than they’ve been in years (and years) Walt can’t get anything in return that would be more valuable to a team looking to win sooner rather than later.

How do the Reds win 90-95 games next year without Aaron Harang?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jun 15, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And who takes the mound against Santana in Game 1 of the NLDS?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jun 15, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Harang

but he is also tradeable. If you move both Arroyo and Harang you are freeing up over 20 million dollars in payroll for next offseason.
Plus a template for a trade. Last year the As traded Blanton for Josh Outman and Cardenas. Outman is already in the MLB rotation and has better than average starter stats.
Both Harang and Arroyo should be able to get a combined 4 top 10 prospects from an organization to the Reds plus the 20 million dollars in payroll.
The Reds would have an incredible deep minor league/money/ great young talent already on the MLB roster- basically set for a very strong 5 year run.

by davidmac84 on Jun 15, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

im open to trading Arroyo

but no way do i trade Harang. but i agree with your idea of freeing up some payroll. the Reds have tons of cash dedicated to just a few players for next season:

Cordero – 12 mil
Harang – 12.5
Arroyo – 11
Phillips – 6.5
EdE – 4.75
T-Virus – 4

That’s 50 mil dedicated to 6 players. that is 2/3 of the team’s total payroll for just 6 players. of course, Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and hopefully EdE will be worth their salt. it would damn near impossible for Cordero to be worth 12 mil, and even more impossible for T-Virus to be worth 4. but Cordero’s full no-trade clause becomes a partial no-trade clause after this season, so that could make him a bit easier to trade. but who would want to trade for the most expensive closer in the game?

T-Virus is more likely to be cut than traded, and im not at all confident that either will happen. so that leaves the first 4. Arroyo is the obvious candidate because he is paid so handsomely and is the most easily replaced. Harang, though more expensive, is far less replaceable. im as excited about the young arms as anyone, but only Cueto and Volquez seem like the kind of guys who can anchor a rotation. Maloney, Bailey, Wood, etc are all nice prospects, but at this point i am not comfortable with relying on them to replace both Arroyo and Harang. just asking them to replace one is tough enough.

i think the most interesting move the Reds could make is to trade BP. he would likely command more prospects in return than anyone else, and is probably only marginally less replaceable than Arroyo. or the Reds could move him to SS. that would be better.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 15, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steve over at RLN

makes a compelling argument for trading Harang.
Sentimentally I don’t want to see him traded either, but we’d definitely get more for him than we would for Arroyo. With all of the promising pitching in AA and AAA, one or both of them has to go.

I guess my question with BP is, who do we replace him with?

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on Jun 16, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

regarding Harang

i know sentimentality has something to do with it, but i think it also makes good baseball sense to keep him. im aware of his slight statistically decline, as Steve points out, but even if he’s a tick below where he was in ‘06-’07 i think he’s still a very good #2 starter. no one in the minors projects to replace that next year or even further into the future.

next year is when this team should really compete, and trading off all the good players now is not the way to realize that potential. Harang may be in the decline phase of his career, but i really dont think he will decline so much over the next season-and-a-half that his value will be less than his contract. we have a really good pitching staff right now and that is in no small part due to Aaron Harang. he is the difference between a great pitching staff and an average one.

as for the thought that Homer, Maloney, Woody, Thompson, etc could replace his production, i find that very unlikely. we are already relying on the young arms of Cueto, Volquez, and to a lesser extent Owings, and im not really comfortable making a pennant run with them at the forefront. they are all very talented, but keeping Harang in that group really rounds it off nicely. as a long-term move i like the idea of trading Harang, but next year is not long term.

as for BP, i think i was more trying to say that i would trade him before i would trade Harang. im more comfortable with the idea of finding a decent 2B in-house (whether that is Valaika, Sutton, or someone else) than i am in finding a replacement for Harang. honestly i think the only player i’d really be comfortable with moving this summer is Arroyo. that 11 mil could be spent on a bat this winter.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 16, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Leake

It just hit me why the Reds would take Leake over Matzek or one of the other high ceiling guys. We are going to need to replace Harang and Arroyo both by the start 2011, right? So Leake is probably the only guy available at our pick who will be a mid rotation guy ready for 2011.

by CamIam on Jun 16, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We've had some discussion of patience and ideas for Walt and Dusty in the Doc Rogers as Honorary RR Reporter

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 15, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I could read Dusty's mind...

beeeeeeeeeeppp….

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on Jun 17, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I would know Nora's fart anywhere. I think I could pick hers out in a roomful of farting women.

About his wife, Nora; James Joyce

by Madville on Jun 17, 2009 6:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trading Harang is not going to help this team in 2010-11

I do not think its reasonable to expect Maloney, Bailey, Thompson, Wood, LeCure, et. al. to put up numbers on par with what Harang will for the next 3 months and the next 3 years. It is nearly best-case scenario for any of those dudes to put up a sub-4 ERA and a ~1.3 WHIP.

So maybe you think you can get a bat for Harang. Loney, Kemp, or X Paul from the Dodgers? Sure, that’d be nice, that’s an argument. But Kemp would obviously be the star, and I’m not sure he’d be too easy to let go (unless you can quixotically convince the Dodgers to take Dickerson, Taveras, or Stubbs).

If the Reds are serious about contending in the next 3 years, and by all means they should be, I would lean more towards trading the Heiseys, Dorns, the Maloneys and Baileys. THAT is how you get the LF/3B/SS you need while keeping the killer pitching.

I’m probably too sentimental, Harang’s my favorite player on the Reds right now, and I’d hate to see the Reds trade Wood, but I think that now that the farm is a strength is the time to cash in on it. If this team is serious about contention, I don’t think you trade the rock of your rotation. And as much as I want to see a change, burning through a dude who has been a bastion of Cincinnati is not the change that ought to happen.

Good golly lets hope Votto comes back soon and starts slugging .700

by Cy Schourek on Jun 16, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i dont want to trade Harang either

but Billy Beane always seems to trade his top pitchers before they lose their value. Im starting to think he might be on to something…

"We're going to Adonis, son"

jch24

by obc2 on Jun 17, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep

3rd, 3rd, and 4th place since he traded those pitchers. Oh, and he traded Dan Haren too.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 17, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

with all due respect, those finishes would be a huge improvement for the Redlegs.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Jun 18, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure

and I’m not opposed to the idea of trading pitchers before they flame out. My point was that all trading those pitchers really did was save him money (and Zito wasn’t traded, he went to free agency). And the Haren comment was to point out that it’s not that easy to just say trade a guy before he flames out. Sometimes you are going to be wrong.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 18, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To give Beane the benefit of the doubt,

I don’t think he thought of Haren as nearing burnout. He just really liked the return he was getting (Gonzalez, Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, and others) and figured he would build for the future rather than stack the current team. Whether they correctly scouted the talent coming back to them is a separate issue (as is why they reversed course with the Holliday trade). Mulder was certainly traded at the right time, and I think Hudson was nearing FA.

by ken on Jun 18, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

come to think of it

Hudson wasn’t a flame out. The only pitcher he’s traded before they lost their value was Mulder. Hudson has gone 54-38 with a 3.78 ERA with the Braves.

Whatever Beane’s intentions were on the Haren deal, it hasn’t worked for him, which is my point. Trading valuable players is a risky move that can backfire. It’s not so easy as to say, Harang isn’t the pitcher that he was in 2006, so he should be dealt.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 18, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's early to say it hasn't worked out

Most of the guys they got back are still under 25. Plus, the A’s won 75 games last year. Even with Haren they weren’t going to sniff the playoffs. Unless they finish a couple of games back this or next year the trade won’t really hurt them.

by ken on Jun 18, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said it didn't work

and I’m never wrong.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 18, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Haren deal

was just too many prospects for Beane to pass up coming into a couple years where he didnt think he had the talent to contend.
He moved Gonzales and Smith in that trade for Holliday whom Beane will probably trade for a couple more prospects.
In the organization he still has Brett Anderson one of the top pitchers under 25, Aaron Cunningham, Chris Carter and Dana Eveland whom has bounced from MLB to AAA. Its pretty hard to see this trade in 2-3 years not being a pretty solid win for the As.
The Mulder trade produced Haren whom almost immeadately was better than Mulder. The Blanton trade produced Outman whom again was immeadately better than Blanton along with a top prospect Cardenas.
The one trade that didnt work for the As was Hudson- when top prospect from the Braves Dan Meyer was injured and never developed.
But the point is if you move both Harang and Arroyo its not unreasonable to think you could get a league average or better starter back very quickly along with 4-5 other top 10 organizational prospects.
This would setup the Reds both with tremedous depth in the organization and financial flexibility to sign FAs or extend their young core talent.

by davidmac84 on Jun 18, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like this idea

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Jun 18, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haren was cost-controlled for another three years and had started the all-star game

Harang and Arroyo won’t fetch that kind of return, especially given the money they’re due in this market.

by ken on Jun 19, 2009 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they have to find a place for arroyo to go

if they want to stay in the race this year they need to keep harang but arroyo is not so important. while he probably wont get much in return it opens up a lot of money for next year and with the economy how it is right now the reds could get some good bats. what does the FA market look like for positional needs for the reds next year?

by kyleb740 on Jun 16, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Both Arroyo and Harang are candidates for an early jettison if the team falls out of centention.

I would try to hang onto both of them as they are Wily Vets who despite their shortcomings are known quantities. Maloney looks plausible, Bailey who knows…everyone else is a total crap shoot. Good Golly, lets hope that the team stays in contention long enough for Votto, EdE, and Bruce to get it going.

Sweat plus sacrifice equals another useless out. Mads

by Madville on Jun 16, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not until next season......

…..per my sources.

Which means squat. Hahaha.

Seriously……….we all have sources. I have sources who either work for the Reds or claim they are close to people who work for the Reds. I don’t believe any of this nonsense. But what they say is that management is going to give it until the trading deadline next season and if it isn’t working, they expect the farm system to be ready to replenish the pieces they are willing to trade.

In theory……it makes alot of sense. But we shall see.

by Dude Rock on Jun 17, 2009 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have no sources

just sense.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Jun 18, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My sources rarely make sense

I think I would know Nora's fart anywhere. I think I could pick hers out in a roomful of farting women.

About his wife, Nora; James Joyce

by Madville on Jun 18, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn, I spelled that wrong

I have scents.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Jun 18, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My sources often make scents

I think I would know Nora's fart anywhere. I think I could pick hers out in a roomful of farting women.

About his wife, Nora; James Joyce

by Madville on Jun 18, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nelson cruz

how about Nelson Cruz? The Rangers have a ton of hitting, and they need pitching badly. They’re not in our division. Cruz is hitting pretty well, but he’s not a superstar, so maybe we wouldn’t have to give up too much for him.

He’s on the old side, but he has carried his 2008 minor league performance through to the majors so far.

by bbjones on Jun 18, 2009 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They won't trade Cruz.....he's carrying their offense

by Dude Rock on Jun 19, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yanks need relief and starting pitching......

Who can we trade to steal triple AAA stud Shelley Duncan away from them??? He has 20 HR’s and hovering around .300.

by Dude Rock on Jun 19, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

a 29-year old in Triple-A having an outlier season?

no thank you

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Jun 19, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

anyone who wanted Shelley could have had him

They DFA’d him to get him off the 40-man. I wasn’t sure he’d clear waivers, but he did.

Shelley Duncan is pretty popular with the Yankee faithful. He’s got good power and patience. He works extremely hard on improving his game, and it’s starting to pay off.

On the bad side…he’s not a contact guy. His average is pretty good this year, but that’s not typical for him. He’s not a good baserunner. And I think it was his poor defense that got him DFA’d from the Yankees. The Yanks already have too many DH types.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jun 19, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs