Talkin' Micah
by Madville on Jun 1, 2009 12:37 AM EDT
35 comments
I know that I'm in the minority here at RR, but I'm not at all sold on Micah Owings as the #5 starter in the 2009 rotation. Now I don't have the statistical expertise to create interesting and informative charts and graphs or the where-with-al to talk about his WHIP or strike outs to walks ratio, etc to prove my point or defend my position. BUT - I see this guy as a 3W and 6L pitcher who gets hit hard almost every game by the 5th or 6th inning - provided he makes it that far. His pitches don't have great movement and his delivery is such that his fastball tends to 'flatten out'.He does have a decent curve ball , but has control problems and tends to walk too many batters. Maybe he'd be better as a reliever...certainly Nick Masset couldn't do any worse than Micah as the 5th starter. My thinking is that Masset would be more consistent at the very least.
I view Owings to be better suited as an outfielder and a power hitter. I believe that he has a passion for hitting that is greater than his interest in pitching. Yes I've heard the argument that his hitting flaws would soon be discovered and that MLB pitchers would exploit them and that he'd have to go to AAA to learn to hit. But,I'd like to see if those reason have a degree of truthiness or is it that some folks just don't want him to stop pitching. Micah has a lot of athletic talent and he has pitched with some success at the MLB, but he can hit a baseball very hard and for a long long way.
His chances of developing into a 'star level' hitter appear much greater than as a 'star 5th starter'. If he'd have to go to Louisville for a month or 6 weeks to work on his hitting, it may be worth it...cause barring an act of God (cause it ain't going to be Dick Pole) that would cause him to become a significantly better pitcher, he's not going to be that big of a help for the 2009 Reds...he ain't got it. His best attributes are at the plate not 60'6" in front of it.
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Disagree
Even with an ERA just north of 5 he’s still close to being an average starting pitcher in this park. If he can cut down his walks to where they were a couple of years ago, he’ll be a fine starter with the added benefit of a strong bat. Plus, if we keep him pitching he can still PH, but if we convert him to an OF his pitching days will likely be done.
FWIW, he seems much more interested in pitching than hitting (can’t find the link, but I recall him saying as much earlier this year).
Switching him to OF/1B also doesn’t make sense because of our depth at those spots. Next year we’ll hopefully have Votto, Bruce, Taveras, Stubbs, Dickerson (and maybe others) in the mix with Alonso, Frazier, and Heisey on the horizon. Our rotation, on the other hand, can really use additional depth because it’s think after the big four. Bailey’s still working things out in Louisville. Maloney may not have the stuff to get out major league hitters. Masset strained his oblique a few weeks ago, so I don’t like the idea of taxing him further by putting him in the rotation (where he had only marginal success in the minors, anyways).
by ken on Jun 1, 2009 8:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His arm slot was awfully low yesterday
I wonder if it is dropping down or not. If it is, getting it back up will give him more down movement on his pitches rather than side movement.
by ol Pete on Jun 1, 2009 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Welsh talked about this yesterday
Hopefully Dick Pole has taken note.
by ken on Jun 1, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great topic
I know the common perception is that Micah keeps it just close enough to lose but I disagree. He’s not a worldbeater but he’s more than serviceable as a 5th starter. I like Masset in the pen, most likely in the role Burton had last season.
"We're going to Adonis, son"
jch24
by obc2 on Jun 1, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
5th guy doesn't have to be Masset,
Homer’s not ready so maybe there isn’t a better #5 available.
Serviceable is too kind. I would say Foggian.
I agree with ol Pete. If Micah’s arm speed was as impressive as hit bat speed I wouldn’t be concerned.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 1, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Foggian?
Thru May Owings has a 5.10 ERA. In 2008, thru May, Fogg had a 9.85 ERA.
I think people have too high of expectations for a 5th starter. As 5th starters go, Owings is a good one.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
by Slyde on Jun 1, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
matt maloney is throwing lights out ball
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jun 1, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How would you compare him to Owings?
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 1, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can't really do that
they are at two different levels, but if you are saying Owings isn’t getting the job done, and you want somebody else, Maloney makes the most sense.
Personally I’m okay with Owings in the 5th spot.
Bloop
by justin007000 on Jun 1, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I won't lie
putting Micah at 1b made me go “hmmmm”
…but then again, didn’t both Nix and Gomes play some 1b in the spring? Any chance of bringing them to the infield and then bringing Stubbs up?
Ali Boombaye
by Cy Schourek on Jun 1, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can Stubbs hit for the Power the way Micah can?
The lure of Owings as a hitter is his monster power.Hell I’d send him down and see how he’d do at 3B
I don’t know why we should lower our expectations of a 5th starter..maybe Homer should be brought up and just stuck in there if that’s the thinking.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 1, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a matter of supply
Not many teams have a pitcher in the 5th slot better than Owings. And I honestly don’t believe the Reds have anybody that would be better there.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
by Slyde on Jun 1, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more on that
Here’s the league’s 5th starters organized by ERA+. In most cases “5th starter” was clear. For a few teams I took the worst perfoming pitcher as long as he had thrown a good number of innings.
_____________________ERA ERA+ IP SO BB CHI Randy Wells 1.80 251 25.0 23 7 STL Mitchell Boggs 3.22 103 22.1 20 11 LAD Jeff Weaver 4.38 98 24.2 16 15 COL Jason Hammel 4.83 96 41.0 27 12 CIN Micah Owings 5.10 89 54.2 35 27 PIT Jeff Karstens 4.83 86 50.1 22 17 SDP Chad Gaudin 4.76 81 39.2 36 26 MIL Manny Parra 5.57 78 53.1 46 34 SFG Randy Johnson 5.71 78 52.0 54 19 PHI Chan Ho Park 6.57 67 38.1 27 20 HOU Brian Moehler 6.43 67 35.0 24 9 WAS Scott Olsen 7.24 61 41.0 29 18 ATL Jo-Jo Reyes 7.00 61 27.0 21 13 ARI Yusmeiro Petit 8.03 58 24.2 19 10 FLA Ricky Nolasco 9.07 47 43.2 37 13 NYM Oliver Perez 9.97 44 21.2 20 21
Some notes: those kids from St Louis and Chicago have recently filled in for injuries and will hopefully get a cold dose of reality soon. LA’s fifth spot has been filled by three pitchers—Weaver, James MacDonald and Eric Milton (who has been great in three starts!). Andrew Miller is nominally Florida’s 5th, but Nolasco’s abject suckiness wins him the nod.
So yeah, Owings has been about as good as you can hope for. There could be improvement from that spot of the roster, but that’s true for nearly all teams.
by Red Menace on Jun 1, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for summing up my (and many others') beliefs in one graph
I don’t see anyone on that graff who has a better chance of improving than Owings (depending on your thoughts on Parra and Randy). Unless you really think that Maloney is going to be all that good, or you think Bailey should get another shot, Owings is doing a darn good job.
Ali Boombaye
by Cy Schourek on Jun 1, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not that it's a huge impact, but
you have to count his hitting in this decision also, right?
I’m not quite sure how to do it, but so far his RC/27 is 6.4. If he gets 3 PAs, and his OBP is around .300, then that means he makes 2 outs per start. So, he’s worth about half a run a game at the plate (well, 0.47, but that seems pedantic.) His batting value in the pitchers spot is much higher than in the outfielder’s spot, because of the replacement value to be compared against.
Again roughly speaking, that means you should be able to subtract about half a run from his ERA to compare to an “automatic out” pitcher — which Bailey is.
If you make that a 4.6 effective ERA, that’s pretty good.
by bbjones on Jun 2, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he keeps getting hit as hard he's been recently
His ERA ain’t going be no 4.6…more like 6.0
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 2, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know the RC calculation, but a half-run per game sounds high
That would make him an 8 win guy if he was an everyday position player, which is Pujolsian.
by ken on Jun 2, 2009 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he has a 118 OPS+ this year
and 125+ for the career. That may not be Pujolsian, but its nearing Dunnian
Ali Boombaye
by Cy Schourek on Jun 2, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like to pronounce that as "D'onion"
I don't need a hot breakfast to have a good time.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Jun 2, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the French pronunciation
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 2, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More like "Dunn you in", amirite?
"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."
by jch24 on Jun 2, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw a stat that last year the 5th starters combined won 4 games
micah has already won 3
I think all Micah needs is a good pitching coach and he’ll be just fine
Nobody listens to Andrew
by nlt-andrew68 on Jun 1, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
or a little more offensive support...
"We're going to Adonis, son"
jch24
by obc2 on Jun 1, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
obc, wasn't it you who said
you’d take Micah at fifth starter over Kyle Lohse?
Really, who would not take Lohse (DL or not) hands down right now?
I am of the opinion that the more effective a pitcher is, the more innings he should get to pitch. It only makes sense. This is why the idea of using Carpenter as a closer fizzled, and why, when Smoltz was healthy enough to return to starting, he did.
To that end, I think Masset and Owings should switch roles. Perhaps Masset will get exposed as he gets more exposure. But it is only fair to the team and the fans for the powers that be to do what is possible to give the team the best chance to win.
And I do not want to see any replies that mention Owings’ hitting as a justification to avoid making the suggested change. His hitting was supposed to make the roster more versatile. If you use that hitting prowess as an excuse to leave him in as a starter, does it not in fact hamstring the roster?
"I lay my head on the railroad tracks, and wait for the double E"- Warren Zevon
by Colin Auscapee on Jun 1, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
small sample sizes
Micah Owings career numbers: minors – 3.19 ERA 1.27 WHIP majors – 4.94 ERA 1.36 WHIP
Nick Masset career numbers: minors – 4.53 ERA 1.45 WHIP majors – 4.58 ERA 1.59 WHIP
Owings has 53 career starts in the majors, Masset has 2.
Owings is clearly the more talented pitcher of the two, and the difference between them is significant. i like what Masset has done as much as the next guy, but he is clearly a relief pitcher, and his career numbers suggest that he is an average one at best.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 1, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am willing to concede that Owings may have been the better pitcher at some point
but Masset is clearly the better pitcher right now. He comes into the game moving the ball and hitting his spots. The results have spoken for themselves. It is plain for anyone to see that Masset has much better stuff.
I am not really interested in what happened to them in the minor leagues, nor am I convinced that this has any bearing on the future. I went to public schools, there were banners up that said “Statistics may predict, but only I determine.”
Even if Micah may be the better pitcher in the long run, how can you argue that he is the better pitcher now? He usually gets hit hard, Masset has not gotten hit hard yet. You have to go with the hot hand.
"I lay my head on the railroad tracks, and wait for the double E"- Warren Zevon
by Colin Auscapee on Jun 1, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i understand your argument
but Owings is still developing. he is only 26 this season. you cant just jerk a young pitcher around like that. Volquez isnt doing so hot either, should he be moved to the ’pen to make room for Masset?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 1, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
26 is fairly young but no spring chicken.
The more responses I read here, the more I begin to understand that the #5 starter role is somewhat expendable/interchangeable. It doesn’t appear that Micah Owings is going to be the pitcher he apparently once was (at least not since joining the Reds). If this is the case and he’s an average performer in a fairly expendable role..more power to seeing just how great of a hitter the man can become.
Lots of ifs here…BUT if he’s an average-esque pitcher but has the hitting upside to become a big time power hitter…well I would rather opt for the latter.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 1, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think assuming that a reliever can still be successful as a starter is a bad assumption
Masset is throwing harder this year than he ever has in the Majors. He’s also basically a fastball/slider pitcher. I’m not sure he’ll have all that much success when he has to pace himself and has to mix in more of his other pitches.
Honestly, I don’t see any reason to take a pitcher who has been mediocre for most of his career and change his role after he has finally found some success in a role that seems to suit him.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
by Slyde on Jun 1, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I realize I am probably being dumb and reactionary
but refusing to replace this inarguably ineffectual pitcher is just a small component of the thing that really makes me angry: the Reds refusal to do anything to improve their tenuous chances of having a winning season. Time and again this season guys have missed extended periods without going on the DL (Masset, Gonzalez, Votto). Votto goes out and we call up Wilkin Castillo? That just seems like throwing in the towel. With an investment of no more than what we paid for Mike "Stinkin’ " Lincoln, we could have a competent LF/ 1B fill-in/ pinch hitter to pick up a lot of this slack, and we still can. Adam Rosales and Ramon at first? It makes me want to cry, and it indicates to me that management has no interest in winning presently. Losing Votto is a huge blow, granted, but a team must prepare for these contingencies.
Sorry for the diary, it is so pathetic it should qualify as a fanpost unto itself. But I own this suck, and I feel it in my bones.
"I lay my head on the railroad tracks, and wait for the double E"- Warren Zevon
by Colin Auscapee on Jun 1, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think you spend $10M on a 5th starter
so Kyle Lohse isnt a likely option for this ballclub. He had a career best ERA last season as the vast majority of the time his ERA approaches or exceeds 5.00. i wasnt that impressed by him during his days in Cincy.
Masset definitely stays in the pen.
Be patient with Owings. Ive said for a long time that this ballclub is constructed for 2010….
"We're going to Adonis, son"
jch24
by obc2 on Jun 1, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just think of what a hitter Owings would be in 2010
If he started now…scary monstrous…just sayin’
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 1, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
After tonight's loss to the Cardinals
The holes in the lineup are becoming an increasing issue.
T-virus heading to the back of his card
Bruce totally out of control
Votto on the DL
Rosy pretty much overmatched
And now Slyde’s magnificent post about how lousy our LF production is..
If Owings next outing is as uninspiring as his last couple…I really hope that Dusty approaches him to play a few games at 1st. Of coure even if he hits well he won’t be Votto and he can’t make up for how poorly Taveras, Bruce and Rosales are hitting..but we sure need a big bat int he line up and it ain’t there..it ain;t Bruce, BP comes as close we have..
I could see something like this:
Jerry Jr. 3B
Gonzo SS
BP 2B
Nix RF
Owings 1B
Gomes LF
Bruce CF
Ramon C
XXXX P
And if Bruce doesn’t get going give him a break and let C-Dick play some out there.
This lineup is not the perfect defensive group. But it it as strong of a lineup offensively as the Reds have had in a long time. Well at least since Dunn and Griffey were both hitting well and EdE was hitting and BP was hitting and Gonzo was hitting..when was that 2006?
And we had no pitching then…
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
by Madville on Jun 3, 2009 2:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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