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Red Reposter - 5/7/09

Paul Janish - Team Player

More photos » Al Behrman - AP

Paul Janish - Team Player

  • In case you turned the massacre game off early last night, Paul Janish pitched the 9th for the Reds.  I'm sure someone (Doug?) will have pitch F/X data up sometime, because the dude was blazing a low 90s fastball.  He struck out 2, dropping a killer change up on Jason Kendall to end the inning.  The Brewers also scored 5 runs on him.
  • Dusty Baker says the team will wait 3 or 4 more days to see if Alex Gonzalez needs a stint on the DL.  Am I the only one who thinks this is just stupid?  That means we will have gone a full week with 24 active players.  And after a 14-inning game on Monday and 8 innings from the bullpen last night, that sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.  I dont know.  I guess we'll see.
  • Prophetic words from the skipper: when Baker was told before the game last night that the Reds led the league in ERA (3.61), he said, "We've got more work to do, but we're on a good path."

  • Edwin Encarnacion injury update:  he had his hard cast removed from his wrist yesterday and was fitted with a removable splint.  He began range of motion exercises and the Reds are pleased with his progress thus far.
  • MLBTradeRumors gives us an explaination of Super-Two status, and also gives us possible Super-Two players for next offseason.  The Reds might see Nick Masset and Micah Owings reach Super-Two status.
  • Todd Coffey is feeling good in Milwaukee.  I wish him all the best.
  • John Perrotto at Baseball Prospectus takes a look at the Reds so far.  Did you know that Johnny Cueto ranks 7th in the majors in SNLVAR?
  • Daedalus wonders why the Reds do not bring up Homer Bailey and put Bronson Arroyo in the bullpen.
  • Crosley Field Terrace tells us that Sean Casey is on Bill Simmons' podcast this week. 
  • Chris Sabo's Goggles asks, "who is your most-hated Brewer of all time?"
  • FanGraphs congratulates the Dodgers for clinching the NL West already.  But THT isnt so eager to call the race just yet.
  • Finally today, Diamond Hoggers reminds me of my step-dad. 

0 recs  |  Comment 54 comments

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Relax

It is absolutely insane to wait that long to see if you are going to DL Gonzalez. How fast the tide turns on Arroyo for some people… Take a breath and see what happens in his next start. Send Owings to the pen if you want to bring up Bailey now.

Head First "I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball." - Pete Rose

by wight4256 on May 7, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think there's gotta be something they're not telling us

It seems like it’s obvious at this point that Gonzo is going to be DLed. Since Drew Sutton just got taken off of the minor league DL, I really think that they’re just waiting so they can get Sutton some ABs in AAA before calling him up. He really is the best option already on the 40-man.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on May 7, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

they can bring up an extra player until then

there isn’t a 10 day mlb minimum. Sweaterpants put Harang on the bereavement list in between starts, so he could bring up an extra player for 3 days.

Bloop

by justin007000 on May 7, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The tide never turned for me

I’ve been an advocate of trading Arroyo for something serviceable for a while now. Last night was just a feather in my cap, Yankee Doodle Dandy. :)

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on May 7, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said this in another thread...

but Arroyo has amazing home/away splits so far this year. Could it be that he is focusing better on the road?

Arroyo’s mean game score this year is 39.8, and his standard deviation is a ridiculous 27.7. But this is due almost entirely to his three home starts (38, 17, 0) vs. his three away starts (60, 49, 75). All three home starts are below his mean (and declining), while all three away starts are well above the mean.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on May 7, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Casey did a great job on Simmons podcast

and even mentioned that he wants to end up in the booth someday. Part of me thinks the Reds would be beyond stupid not to find a way to accommodate him, but I think he may be bigger than us. Like replacing McCarver or Morgan big.

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on May 7, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thank you, BK.

Reading this made me feel warm and happy inside. Not happy for Sean Casey, but happy for me and every other baseball fan blessed enough to someday live in a world without Tim McCarver.

"I wanna listen to Elephants Gerald."

by Fat Vegas Alan on May 7, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

OutFoxed.

"Nobody's going to die just because they can't find their little yellow basket."

by Fat Vegas Alan on May 7, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Consistency question

I believe it was here that some analysis was done comparing a ‘consistent’ pitcher with an ‘inconsistent’ pitcher with the same overall ERA. anyone else remember this? I believe, numbers showed that the inconsistent pitcher would expect to win more games than the consistent pitcher.

I think it had to do with Bronson Arroyo or Joe Blanton, so it was either here or at AN. Any help???

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on May 7, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Arroyo was one of the least consistent pitchers last year...

though he’s much less consistent than that this year. The analysis was here, and I mentioned the SD for Arroyo this year above, in the comments here.

Let me write out a formal proof for you.

by Gray on May 7, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It makes sense

that an inconsistent pitcher would win more games than a consisten pitcher with the same ERA.

The problem with that though, is games like last night where your SS is pitching because your starter only went 1 inning. I’d rather get 6IP, 3-4R every time out from Bronson than what he’s been giving. He’s going to kill the bullpen

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on May 7, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow - I completely missed that article

interesting stuff.

There’s something out there that adds the average bullpen ERA to the back end of starts and gives win probability. I’ve tried a few searches here and at AN and haven’t come up with it yet.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on May 7, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Most hated Brewer

is that even a question? Bill Hall. I throw up a little in my mouth every time I say his name.

by kcox17 on May 7, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I want to see Gomes up for McDonald

McDonald brings no potential – he’s not a great fielder, he doesn’t steal bases, he doesn’t have power, and he doesn’t get on base particularly well. No reason to have him on the club.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on May 7, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but he is real great at everything else

like driving to the ballpark, putting his uniform on, wearing a baseball glove.

Bloop

by justin007000 on May 7, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nix makes McDonald redundant

Nix can be a defensive replacement- his stats and scouting reports are he is an above average CF.
McDonald should just be released bring up Gomes and see if he can be a part of a LF platoon.

by davidmac84 on May 7, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where is the guy who wrote the pre-season article

that suggested trading Arroyo for Hardy?

by ol Pete on May 7, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

To be fair

Our SS struck out your SS last night. :)

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on May 7, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

roasted

go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 7, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Macha's postgame

Reporters were talking about the catcher up from AAA who got his first hit off Cy Jannish. Willie Randolph kidded him that it didn’t count and he responded that he didn’t care. Macha’s response to the reporters was “ask JJ about that.”

by ol Pete on May 7, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I felt bad for Hardy

You know he’s gonna catch hell no matter what he does from here on out.

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on May 7, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He'll be okay. He doesn't strike out that often.

"Nobody's going to die just because they can't find their little yellow basket."

by Fat Vegas Alan on May 7, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hilarious.

by ol Pete on May 7, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sheldon scooped Hal.

Or at least Sheldon chose to share the full quote with his readers:

….if (Gonzalez) does go on the DL, it would be like a 10-day DL backdated instead of the full 15," Baker said. “We also don’t want to go into this series or the Cardinals series with 24 vs. 25 men either.”

Also from Sheldon:

With Gonzalez out, Paul Janish and Jerry Hairston Jr. will likely split shortstop duties. Janish was in the lineup at shortstop on Wednesday vs. the Brewers while Hairston was at third base.

Baker and Reds general manager Walt Jocketty met in Baker’s office, presumably to go over their options. One issue about a potential DL move is the organization doesn’t have any infielders currently performing well at Triple-A Louisville.

Shortstop Chris Valaika is batting .176, while utility infielder Danny Richar is hitting .213. Neither player is on the 40-man roster. Another infielder, Drew Sutton, made his Louisville debut on Tuesday after being out with mono and went 1-for-4. Sutton was acquired from the Astros last month in the Jeff Keppinger trade.

"Nobody's going to die just because they can't find their little yellow basket."

by Fat Vegas Alan on May 7, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

couple of things

I agree with the gonzalez worry – with his track record for recovery, they should just go ahead and put him on the DL.

I like Bronson but I have always been an advocate of putting the best team on the field and Bailey needs to be up here now. Whether Owings or Bronson goes to the pen is another issue, but I think it’s wrong to assume Bronson says in the rotation all year. Here’s an interesting idea – bring Bailey up, put Owings in the pen, and when Badroyo shows up in the first inning, immediately pull him before it gets to be 9-0 and stick Owings in there. And make sure Owings is ready for a Bronson game – don’t use him the day before.

by Daedalus on May 7, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but you are basically keeping 2 men on the 25 man roster for 1 job

i am comfortable enough with Bronson to not feel the need to keep Owens ready to piggyback him.

Bloop

by justin007000 on May 7, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like someone has their sea legs

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on May 7, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bronson is Bronson...he'll be a good #4 for the money and give us some really good games

Gonzo was starting to hit and I don’t see him going anywhere unless as D. says the line is out on his injuries. The guy who may be the odd man out could be EdE. i don’t think that the Red’s Brass really like him (although dusty has been a supporter), Walt has got to know that the team needs a RH power bat to complement Votto and Bruce. apparently there is little interest Gomes (and rightfully so). What about Mark de la Rosa ? Would the cubs take a pitcher and a prospect for him..would we want him,,I like hin, Where’s Slyde when I need him!!!!

Hanging aout with a bunch of beach bums I bet

 I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see Micah as more than another #4 or #5 pitcher, whereas he could be a great hitter, Even if he were a .280/300/.850 guy who hit 30HRs he would be the bomb on the Reds.

Bailey…tough call, last thing you want to do is bring him up and have him falter again.

Be fun to watch what happens. If only Red Menace were the Manager…

I want to be there when a trailer full of coffins slams into a an ambulance full of terminally ill Bolivians. Or when the Reds win a WS..whichever comes first....

by Madville on May 7, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You've made an ass of yourself.

DeRosa is in Cleveland.

"Nobody's going to die just because they can't find their little yellow basket."

by Fat Vegas Alan on May 7, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OOOPPPPS

Slyde’d

I want to be there when a trailer full of coffins slams into a an ambulance full of terminally ill Bolivians. Or when the Reds win a WS..whichever comes first....

by Madville on May 8, 2009 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We're paying Bronson an awful lot of money to be a #4 starter

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on May 7, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

he's not though

he’s really more like a #3, and he’s paid just fine for it. besides, 3 of our other starters are making the minimum and will do so for at least 1 more season.

go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 7, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really

I’m just speaking to Mads point that Bronson is the number 4 starter. For what he’s getting paid, he should be pitching like a #3 or #2 starter even, not a back of the rotation guy,

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san

by BK on May 7, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bronson has been a great value so far.

But 09 hes at 9.5 million 2010 11 million 2011 11mil with 2 mil buyout.
If he repeats his 08 performance this year is contract is fair and if he beats together a nice string of starts he should be tradeable with just one year left on his contract to a big budget team.
I had loss all faith in Bronson last year and then he put together a great 2nd half of the year and he always seems to find a way to be plus 2 wins to replacement value.
But if Homer continues to dominate AAA I wouldnt mind shifting the Bronson risk to some other team.

by davidmac84 on May 7, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm ready for Walt to start working the phones to trade BA.

Now I just have to prepare myself for the inevitably disappointing return we’ll get for him.

"Nobody's going to die just because they can't find their little yellow basket."

by Fat Vegas Alan on May 7, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

<img src=“”http://media.photobucket.com/image/bad return/talfuchre/Pumpenstein Blog Pics/WhiteWolf003.jpg?o=1" target="_blank">"/>

Bloop

by justin007000 on May 7, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not only that, but what makes you think Owings can hit for 850 OPS

(at first I thought you meant that as his slugging percentage and I almost died of shock). Owings is a good hitter for a pitcher. He’s no Rick Ankiel in that he CAN pitch and league average innings are far more valuable than league average outfielders

IMHO, at least

by timb116 on May 7, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that aint no opinion

that’s a fact of life.

go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 7, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

.280/300/.850 with 30 HRs

would be the bomb on any team. Owings is not that kind of hitter.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on May 7, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could be...he does pretty well with the stick for a guy who just picks up the bat every now and then

If Micah was really focusing on hitting and working it everyday, I have no doubt that he’d be a superior hitter. But he’d have to do something about those sideburns.

I want to be there when a trailer full of coffins slams into a an ambulance full of terminally ill Bolivians. Or when the Reds win a WS..whichever comes first....

by Madville on May 8, 2009 7:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Owings 894 OPS

in 140 PA- with a godawful BB% 5% and 33% K .
But when Micah hits – he hits hit hard with a 25% LD 546 Slugging %.
He also is reportedly a good athlete. If he just was a position player and could marginally improve his plate discipline- he could be a real monster offensively.
To me he seems to have more potentially has a position player- but I guess this year will help tell the story on his potential as a pitcher.

by davidmac84 on May 7, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Topic be damned...

where is the best value for parking near the new stadium? A friend is asking…

Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.

by PeteyHendrix on May 7, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

in your mom's face

go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 7, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only if you have a coupon from the Pennysaver!

And a penchant for slow-moving septuagenarians.

Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.

by PeteyHendrix on May 7, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

And an A for spelling! (small sample size alert)

Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.

by PeteyHendrix on May 7, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't there cheap parking across the river?

Then a brief walk across the bridge, and voila!

by Brendanukkah on May 7, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

Best place to park for a game is at Newport on the Levee… last time I went it was $2

The walk across the bridge towards the city and the stadium is often one of my favorite parts of going to the game (especially in years where the Reds didn’t have quite so much HAVOC)

by Nasty N8 on May 8, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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