Red Reposter - 5/29/09
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 29, 2009 11:28 AM EDT
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Print- Bronson Arroyo on the upcoming roadtrip: “Both Milwaukee and St. Louis are playing good ball and we haven’t been in this position for a long time,” he added. “It’s not do-or-die because we’re playing pretty good, but it would be nice to take two of three and split with St. Louis to come off the road with a winning record.” I like this. I know Im all fired up about the recent winning ways, and I want to see the Reds tear through the Brewers and Cards and come home with an 11 game winning streak, but I should probably be more realisitic. A winning road trip here would be big time.
- The Fay asks how you think the Reds will do on the trip. What do you think?
- Jonny Gomes has a silver tongue to match his bat: "...I'm five lousy at-bats away from people not talking to me or possibly wondering if my jersey will still be hung up in my locker. This game is big peaks and valleys. You definitely have to find the happy medium with both of them. You can't keep your head in the sand in the valleys nor your head in the clouds for the peaks."
- Jay Bruce is still only 22 years young. We need to remember that. But check it; the dude is only the third Red in the last 40 years to hit 2 homers and a triple in the same game. Barry Larkin and Cesar Cedeno were the others.
- Sister Daedalus says Edwin Encarnacion has to be the unquestionable 3B of this team when he gets back off the DL. Chad at RLN picks up the banner as well. They get no argument from me.
- Doug at RML continues his profiles of possible Reds' draft picks with a look at UNC pitcher Alex White.
- Ted Keith at SI has his power rankings up for the week, and the Reds have risen to 10th.
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In the SI article
It says Francouer might be traded to the Sawx. I hope it’s not before I get down there and wear my Failcouer shirt to a game! :)
"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."
Waiting on an email for the the guy at talkingchop
Then I’m ordering it. :)
"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."
OK, shirt is ordered
Hopefully I’ll get it within the next eight days. :)
"It seems as if every mistake I've ever made in life I've had an erection in one hand and a Bud Light in the other."
EE
im going to give him the benefit of the doubt but i dont lurv him nearly as much as many other people do.
"We're going to Adonis, son"
jch24
I wouldnt have any problem
giving Hairston the full-time 3rd base gig this year. EE for his career is (11) UZR and that number has been pretty consistent year over year. Hairston is +5 at 3rd base the same as is 2nd base rating- and the only position that Jerry is negative is SS.
Hairston is at 350 wOBA right in line with expectations for EE but you are probably saving 10 runs on defense with Jerry at 3rd base.
Of course if EE really rakes in AAA- he deserves a shot- but I dont think EE starting at 3rd base this year is that vital for the Reds and the probability is they are probably better off with Hairston.
you really think
Hairston can keep up a .350 wOBA?
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 29, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
his career wOBA is .313
i love what Cherry has done here in Cincy and i apologized for all the negativity towards him, but im still skeptical that he can keep it up. no way i Pipp EdE with Hairston.
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 29, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
You average the recent performance with the Reds/GABP
with career numbers that were influenced by alot of years under 200 PA/ injuries and you get a range around 330-350 which seems reasonable.
A comparable player would be Russel Branyan that has really benefited from getting PA everyday with the Mariners.
The way I see it with Hairston you definitely have a signficant defensive upgrade with a good chance of not losing any offense over EE.
I puked a little in my mouth just now
recalling Russell Branyan.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 29, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are basically guessing about his defense
He’s played a total of 144 innings at 3B in the Majors. Saying he’s a +5-run defender there is a ton of extrapolating. I think a safer estimate is to say that he’s probably an average defender at 3B. Still a defensive upgrade over EdE, but then who isn’t?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
me
i could field everything i got to, but i had no range.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 29, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
EdE's got the range, got the arm, got the glove but lacks the consistent focus.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
I've seen one of those live and two others on TV
All 3 just barely got over the wall. The one I saw live was against St. Louis and was a line drive to left at GABP. It scraped the top of the yellow and went into the first row.
I’m probably going to get killed for saying this, but I honestly think some of this power has to do with GABP. Five of those six have come while in Cincinnati.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on May 29, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
You are correct, sir
and no one wants to kill you for that, I don’t think.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 29, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I only said
that because I’ve seen a few comments on here from people regarding a certain former left fielder’s numbers and the concept that a bunch of guys with average to low pop could make up for it because of the ball park.
Will they equal the donkey? No. Will they put up career numbers? I think, yes.
I’m a firm believer that a ball park can and will shape a game — and on rare occasions more so than players.
It’s one thing I like about baseball over all other N. American sports — the playing surface can change dramatically from one place to another.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on May 29, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I wondor, what is our overall home record since 2003 ?
GABP gives just as much advantage to the weaker hitting teamates of our adversaries…..
I tried looking this up on BR.com but couldn’t figure it out :(
Nobody listens to Andrew
by nlt-andrew68 on May 29, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I agree it gives advantage to our opponents (see Berkman)
but we also had piss poor pitching since that park opened.
To answer your question, though, I know it’s a losing record. And it isn’t pretty.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on May 29, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
wonder
/justin’d
Nobody listens to Andrew
by nlt-andrew68 on May 29, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
254-257
compared to 216-291 on the road during the same span.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
and i feel like about 400
of those 291 loses have come in California.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 29, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
WOW!!!!
Color me shocked. I thought Cincy was a ton worse at home. Wait you’re including this season as well, correct? Or is this just through last year?
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on May 29, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
this season as well
but they are only one game over .500 at home this season.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
you, sir are a wealth of information
seriously.. thanks for finding that for us…
seriously.. thanks for finding that for us…now have we hit more home runs than our opponents at GABP ??
Nobody listens to Andrew
by nlt-andrew68 on May 29, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
don't know why that posted twice
I guess theres an echo…
Nobody listens to Andrew
by nlt-andrew68 on May 29, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Reds HR at GABP: 691
Opp HR at GABP: 735
Reds HR on Road: 566
Opp HR on Road: 588
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I hope Dusty is patient with EE
Coming off a wrist injury, he’s probably going to need at least a couple of weeks to get some of his power back. I’m not completely sold on any of the Reds (current) solutions to 3rd base, but I still think Edwin’s a better fit than Hairston.
I'm fine with him being patient with him...
but thats why they have AAA rehab assignments.
It doesn’t do him or the team any good to work off the rust while on the big club.
( see Gonzalez, Alex )
Nobody listens to Andrew
by nlt-andrew68 on May 29, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
bone chip mcgee
is all right with me
hopefully Dusty gives EE the fair share of time at third, but allows occasional playing time there for Rosales to keep the position competitive. Dual purpose: keep EE focused and an outlet for Rosales’ endless energy
by jacob brumfield on May 29, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions
EE is an everyday player
and neither Rosales nor Hairston can hold his jock. Rosales spelling Edwin? Who do you think will be sent down when he comes back.?
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 29, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Career OPS+
Edwin: 101
Cherry: 86
Edwin is coming into the prime years and Cherry is on the wrong side of them. Edwin looks like 3B. Cherry looks like a Tiny Prancer.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 29, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I reckon that's a possibility
but if that is how they wanted their roster to look, why didn’t they break camp that way? Concern over Gonzalez’s health?
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 29, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd love to see Janish there
If Edwin does end up there I’d like to see him come off the DL batting 8 and have to work his way up. He certainly does not deserve to be batting ahead of anyone who is in our top 6 right now.
by RampantRedsFan on May 29, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are people judging Edwin off earlier this season
when he was trying to gut it out while hurt?
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 29, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
well
he did hit 26 home runs last year. That would be one argument in his favor.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
but he can't get the bunt down!
remember when he had that epic fail during the second game of last season when dusty told him to bunt? then he went and hit that stupid game winning homer.
things
for anyone interested, i started reading the neverending story and should have a new perspective to post on the question of the bookkeeper in the next few days. also, i’ve been getting some requests to update the bereavement pool, and be assured that that’s coming. i have no clue who’s winning, but i dont think there have been very many hits.
also, anyone else think a bronson-encarnacion-bailey-for-peavy trade is possible?
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
another classic fan trade proposal
“Let’s bundle up all these guys I don’t like and trade them for an All-Star.”
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 29, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
also, anyone else think a bronson-encarnacion-bailey-for-peavy trade is possible?
not jake peavy
Made from 100% recycled awesome,
by chandrathan on May 29, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
if peavy turned down chicago, i doubt he will go to cincinnati
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 29, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
what!?
but we have the Freedom Center
by jacob brumfield on May 29, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
peavy said he wants to be in the midwest and play for a national league team
the white sox struck out on one of those accounts…
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
oh god i'm dumb
i was thinking he turned down a trade to the cubs, fucking early onset senility.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 29, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
no worries
dumb and cubs go hand & hand
by jacob brumfield on May 29, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
nah
the Padres want cheap young pitching. Bronson is neither cheap nor young. i think it’s fair value, but with the wrong components.
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 29, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
i dont think the Reds have the pitching prospects to pull it off. if the Padres were willing to take bats, then shit yeah we can do it. something like Francisco/Stubbs/Bailey/Stewart might do it.
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 29, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
If they're not trading Arroyo, the Reds wouldn't do it
that’s too much money locked up in 5 players for 2010
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
yeah im not advocating dealing for Peavy
i think we need a bat much more than an arm. just spitballin’ a bit.
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 29, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
just wanted you to know you were wrong
that’s all. :)
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I would rather trade for Clay Buchholz...
I don’t think it will happen but that dude should be in the big leagues…now.
by Snake the Jake on May 29, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm in favor of consolidating our hold on all the Buchholzs in baseball
by Brendanukkah on May 29, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
We need to get Taylor too then
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 29, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That was Tyler
And you call yourself a historian!
by Brendanukkah on May 29, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with obc. But, I did not think that Gonzo would respond the way he has so far.
In fact I was ready to bury AGon – .looks like I was way wrong. I feel the same about EdE as I did about Alex. Edwin certainly has the experience and the ability to prove me wrong and I hope the hell he does. On the other hand (boy do I find it ironic to be agreeing with Marty and Jeff) Jerry Jr. is on a tear and when he plays it seems more often than not that we win. (Chuck or Slyd or someone sabremetrically equipped would know if this is tuthiness or not).
How would the line up look with EdE…
Taveris CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Nix/Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez C
Encarnacion 3B
Gonzales SS
P
So that leaves the team’s best #2 slot hitter, Jerry Hairston Jr. as the odd man out which is tough cause the guy has been such a big contributor and as jacob says Rosales too will be either relegated to the bench or even AAA and he too has been (love him or hate him) a real sparkplug since being called up.Who will be sent down? Probably the invisible SS..Jannish,. This too is tough becuase he’s done everything asked of him defensively and has shown (small sample size) that he can hit pretty well at the MLB level too.
I hope that EdE sees that Rosy and Cherry are eager to take his job back in the blink of an eye and doesn’t take his job for granted.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
This is the best Reds lineup
Dickerson CF- OBP is back at 370- the kid will always draw walks and his power numbers will come around.
Hairston 3rd
Votto
Bruce
Hernandez
Phillips
Nix/Gomes
Gonzo/Janish
Thats an above league average offense- with the Reds defensive abilities- equates to 90 wins.
To get to 90 wins, we have to go 64-52 for the rest of the season
…that doesn’t seem undoable.
by Brendanukkah on May 29, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
to get to 90 wins
they just have to keep winning at the same pace they currently are winning. Does that make it more realistic?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Actually it makes sense...and I'm beginning to think it is possible.
I am somewhat concerned about:
Taveris continuing to get on base
Will Gonzo hold up..
What effect will Edwin have when he returns
And will Owings be able to keep the team in enough games.
Of course there’s always Dusty and Dick too.
Everyone else should continue to play like they’ve been playing. Barring injuries and if the above 5 can continue (or begin to) contribute, a winning and competitive season is very realistic…maybe even 90 wins.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
You like C Dick more than Taveras, and Hairston over EdE?
I’d do something like this, with Hairston a wildcard moving around between 3B, SS, LF, RF, 2B when guys need a day off… he’d get into 3-4 games a week.
Taveras CF
Hairston Util/Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF /Phillips 2B/Ramon C
Ramon C/ Bruce RF
EdE 3B
Nix/Gomes LF
Gonzales SS
If I can’t use slashes, then I’d have Taveras 1, Hairston (SS) 2, Votto 3, Bruce 4, Phillips 5, Ramon 6, EdE 7, Nix/Gomes 8 (pretty good for the 8-spot)
There are so many utility guys on this team, it’s hard to come up with an “every day” lineup that doesn’t leave out a nice bat or important defensive cog. The good news is, if Dusty’s not Dustying around, he can make a pretty damn good lineup full of .260-.300 hitters top to bottom, all of which (besides Taveras) have 20 HR potential.
Yeah but yu have 13 players on the field at one time..
Most of the umps ain’t too bright but I bet they’ll catch on.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
On a month-to-month basis, he's fairly inconsistent
I took out all months where he had less than 50 PA.
Two questions pop up that I don’t know the answer to:
1. How does this compare to a typical everyday player?
2. How much does consistency really matter? Is it better to be consistently average, or inconsistently great and then ungreat?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
i was wondering your second question, too
everyone goes through slumps. are edwin’s slumps more prolonged?
and what about edwin’s career “clutch” numbers? why is it that people who tend to dislike guys like edwin (i.e. not .300 hitters) talk so much about clutch and ignore edwin’s clutch numbers?
Like I said yesterday, or at least thought yesterday, not sure if I said it
I think people have a tendency to dislike a player for one reason or another and then use confirmation bias anywhere they can to continue to assert why that player isn’t any good. So, I think what has happened is that EdE’s defense pisses people off, probably justifiably. Then I think some people start to look at other things “wrong” with his game and focus on those things because their eyes have told them he is not a good player. So, I think this is why they focus on EdE’s lack of consistency or Dunn’s lack of clutchness, but don’t account for EdE’s clutchness or Dunn’s consistency.
I think.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
i dislike players
based on how they wear their pants and if they wear batting gloves.
"We're going to Adonis, son"
jch24
I dislike players on how effeminate their names are -
Hated this guy…
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
really?
I think Dickshot is a fairly masculine name. Also a great porn name.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
For reals
Johnny Dickshot: Bukkake king
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on May 29, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
You sir are correct...I meant pornographic not effeminate
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
i guess i'm just amazed how all of the vitriol spewed at edwin in the past few days when people realized he was still on the team.
i guess people have to have a player to hate. it’s like that on every team, i think. if the BRM played in today’s time, who would be the hated player? concepcion, because he had a .267 career avg? or bench, because he had an identical .267 career avg?
i just think it’s interesting.
Concepcion was fun loving and goofy...EdE somber and quiet -
Davey was once stuck in an industrial sized dryer at a laundromat once to break a slump.
He also was know to toss a few down as well. Unfortunately Edwin is viewed as emotionally remote, sullen and non-charismatic..no matter how hard he works etc. he is going to have deal with these preconceptions.
I would like to thank sMarty for introducing so much of this kind of sour pussness about players he doesn’t like. Back in BRM days sMarty was in awe of the players. I guess he doesn’t get why they are not now in awe of him.
"I just wanted to be like my dad, Jesus. He was a good shortstop.
Johan Santana
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