Red Reposter - 5/19/09
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 11:50 AM EDT
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Print- Mark Sheldon has re-opened his mailbag, which is now call the "inbox". He says Arroyo would be a great trade chip this summer, but only if the Reds are way out of it. He also thinks Gonzo and Encarnacion are safe in their starting positons, even coming off injuries and ineffectiveness.
- Fay says Dusty Baker is being criticized even more than Bob Boone or Jerry Narron ever was. Chad from RLN thinks that's redonculous, and so do I. Baker certainly isnt beloved by Reds fans, especially 'round these parts, but I am thankful everyday that he is wearing Red instead of Boone or Narron. I dont believe the manager is really that important to winning or losing games, but Baker is certainly doing better than those two poor souls ever did.
- Doug at RML takes a look at top prospect Yonder Alonso's performance so far in the pitcher's paradise Florida State League. The kid looks like quite a stud.
- Hattip to Doug on this one too: JJ Cooper at Baseball America has not given up hope on Homer Bailey, and neither have I.
- FanGraphs gives us their UZR leader and loser boards so far this year, and Joey Votto shows up as the 3rd worst first baseman and Jay Bruce is the 2nd best corner OF. Of course, these are extremely small sample sizes so it's really more for amusement than information.
- Red Reposter News From Hell: Shysterball tells us tonight is Gluttony Night for the Reading Phillies. For $12, you get all-you-can-eat fries, pizza, hot dogs, you name it.
- MLB and FOX have decided to start playoff games earlier this year. Playoff games havent started before 8:00PM since 1975, when the Red Sox won the series on Pudge Fisk's homer...PSYCH!!!!
- And I posted this in yesterday's Reposter as a comment, but I wanted to bring it up again. Ryan Wagner is retiring from baseball at age 26. His shoulder just wont work for him anymore.
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Bray underwent “Tommy John” surgery and is officially out until 2010. Not really new news but it is official.
Reds.com has Owings listed as tomorrows starting pitcher. I hope that is an oversight on reds.com’s part, because if he starts tomorrow Dusty, Dick, and Walt have learned nothing.
Bloop
yeah
Owings wont start tomorrow. they’ve already said Harang is the starter for tomorrow, but i cant find the link. dont worry Justin.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Arroyo as a trade chip
The disconnect, as I see it, is that if the Reds are “way out of it”, then it’s likely that Arroyo hasn’t been pitching that well…kinda making him not-a-great-trade-chip.
I think the Reds are in a weird spot, with respect to major trades: they can’t really trade their prospects, because they’re in the up cycle. Their best hitters are young and cheap. They don’t have a surplus of anything. The best candidates for trade from an analytical POV are probably Eddie and BP. But most teams still in the playoff hunt have better 3rd basemen than Eddie, and it’s just difficult to see the Reds dealing BP.
I would think they'd be more likely to trade pitching...
or if Taveras keeps up his hitting and they’re out of it, I could see them offering him around. But I’m thinking one of the veteran relievers or maybe a starter would be the most likely trade bait.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
"if the Reds are "way out of it", then it’s likely that Arroyo hasn’t been pitching that well"
not necessarily. the team’s major weakness is the hitting. if the team falters, i would bet it’s because no one is hitting, not t’other way ’round.
as for the most valuable trade chips, i agree with Gray. Weathers and Rhodes, if they can keep it up, would probably fetch a few prospects. i would leave to deal Cordero, but i dont see that happening (remember that rumor from a while back that had Big Bob squashing a deal that would send him to NY for Nady?). Arroyo could be a big chip though, especially if he’s really on it. i could see him being the second-best starter on the market, after Cliff Lee (depending on a number of different things). and i wouldnt hesitate to trade him either, especially if a good young catcher or SS or even another arm could be had in return.
and though i find it difficult to see the Reds dealing BP, i would argue he is the one guy the Reds should deal if they are out of it. he would net the most in return and would be the most easily replaceable. of course, that all hinges on Chris Valaika coming back from his injury and starting to hit the ball like we hope he can.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Re. Cordero
He does still have a no-trade clause through the end of this season.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you think that he doesn't believe he is currently on a contender?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
CoCo's been around...I can't believe that he would leave for a 'surefire' contender' in the drop of a hat.
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
Would a 'surefire' contender (if there is such a thing this year) give up players for a closer that is still owed $30+M
We seem to forget that the Reds are the only team that has ever given a closer that kind of money on the free agent market.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
only...
…two years though after this one, right? So a mid-summer acquisition drops him “only” being owed somewhere in the low 20s, I think.
That may make him a bit more moveable.
Maybe.
When not lurking here, the sportsfrog is where I am.
He's guaranteed $25 million after this season
plus whatever he would be owed for the rest of this year. He’s not a good enough pitcher for that to be attractive.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Like I say below,
he would likely ask for his new team to pick up his 2012 option if he’s traded. So that makes it 3 extra years. It’s typical for players with n/t clauses to ask for some kind of benefit in consideration for waiving the clause.
that confused me
I was all, “What the hell is a 12 team option.” Short-handing dates in the teens still looks weird.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Short-handing teen dates
All very normal to jch.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
so now he's a pedophile?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Heeeeeeeyyyyy
I’m a lot of bad things but a kid diddler definitely ain’t one of ’em. I like my girls crazy not young, thankyouverymuch.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
Arroyo stinks
The guys gives up baserunners galore and people think he is a “great chip”? Mercy.
A magical, slut-luring boat.
Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.
by PeteyHendrix on May 19, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey Petey!
I was hoping we’d see you in the west coast game threads.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
You would have, but I was on a long weekend in Vegas.
I’m fine. Vegas is still recovering.
Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.
by PeteyHendrix on May 19, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Way to stain the town's crotch, Petey.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Some towns simply aren't built for full-frontal Petey.
Luckily, some strippers are. I hope their soreness subsides before my return.
Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.
by PeteyHendrix on May 19, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
God thats good
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on May 19, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure why I'm doing this, but
yes, Johnny, people need starters who pitch seven innings and have ERA’s around 4.8. It’s called league average and rather than have some 23 year come up and give a contender 50 IP with a 7.75 ER, they would opt for a guy like Bronson.
by timb116 on May 19, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not sure why you're doing it either.
And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...
by Paul Householder on May 19, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Random thought here
Reds face 4 LHP starters in the next 6 days. Votto most likely won’t sniff the field until this weekend. (I hope if that is the case they DL him. It’s gotta be extremely scary being dizzy at 1B or in the batter box with a 93 MPH Fastball coming at you) Gomes is finally hitting in AAA. If you dont DL Votto, then get rid of Ronald McDonald- DFA him, add Gomes to play LF and 1B. I’d feel much better about this lineup:
Taveras cf
Hairston 3B
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Gomes LF
Hernandez C
Rosales 1B
Gonzalez SS
Pitcher
Otherwise look at this crap we will most likely see way to much of:
Taveras cf
Hairston 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Hernandez 1B
McDonald LF
Gonzalez SS
Hanigan C
Pitcher
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle
How much better is Rosales/Hernandez over Hernandez/Hanigan?
I forgot that Dusty appears to have decided he can no longer play Hernandez at first. But really, if he puts Hanigan at catcher, Hernandez at first, Rosales at third, and Hairston in LF, we don’t have to see McDonald.
But thanks for reminding me that we probably will.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Has Dusty really decided that Ramon can't play first?
The Diamondbacks broadcasting team was taking turns fellating him for his defensive prowess, even featuring him on their advertiser-sponsored defensive feature.
The non-DL moves have truly aggravated me. I can’t believe Walt is letting this happen on top of Dusty’s general obtuseness.
This all makes me want to scream CROTCHSTAIN!
Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.
by PeteyHendrix on May 19, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
It’s absurd, since if anything happens to one he can always sub someone in and move infielders around, but he appears to be super skittish about having both in at once.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
What if they run into each other chasing a foul ball?
Seriously, 1st and 3rd are the only places a manager would have to worry about that. I disagree with him, but I would be willing to exchange McDonald for Castillo and let Castillo be a seldom used utility player who can alos catch
Well, it's not like one of them is wearing a lot of padding and a helmet
Oh…
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Dusty needs fitted for a helmet.
Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.
by PeteyHendrix on May 19, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
he already wears the batting gloves
why not finish off the ensemble?
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I've always been of the opinion that you place yur best all around hitter (power, average, OBP,OPS) in the #3 slot
They way Jay Bruce is not hitting right now, methinks he’s not the best #3. BP is way too much of a free swinger to ever be at #3. But its a tought group to arrange.Because Walt will wait too long to bring up Gomes, I’d like to see this line up.
Taveras cf
Hairston SS
Nix LF
Hernandez 1B
Phillips 2B
BRuce RF
Rosales 3B
Hanigan C
Now this will never happen because Dusty is so conservative and unimaginative, I wouldn’t mind seeing Dickerson get a start in RF and give Bruce another night off.
I agree that what we will see is moss likely a version of your second line up. Hopefully, hoe against hope, Dusty won’t start DreShaun McFoggy ever again,
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
If our best all-around hitter vs. lefties goes in the third hole...
…then Micah Owings better practice shagging flies in LF.
Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.
by PeteyHendrix on May 19, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I still have not heard anyone associated with the Reds...
…forward a rational explanation for the continuing Darnell McDonald experience. All of the usual jokes aside, it is bordering on almost cruel to keep foisting him on this fanbase when there is a guy like Gomes who rakes against lefties just begging to be called up and used. It makes less than zero sense.
I know that between C. Trent being laid off and Fay furloughed we are running painfully short on writers with access to ask the relevant questions, but, man, Hal or someone needs to stand in front of Jock until Jock explains with something approaching reason why this McDonald farce continues. Tack on the weirdness surrounding their refusal to DL Alex G, shorting themselves over the weekend with the Masset delayed DL, etc. and the front office is re-defining what it means to have a shitty week at the office.
When not lurking here, the sportsfrog is where I am.
did you read bullet #4?
“…carrying a perfect game into the fifth until Johnny Gomes lost a fly ball in the lights and watched it fall 10 feet away for a double.”
THAT’s why there hasn’t been a Gomes sighting
Ali Boombaye
Bullshit
Gomes is NOT the first nor would he be the last to lose a ball in the lights. That hardly disqualifies him from helping this team.
No, he is not a good defensive outfielder. But given this team’s extreme offensive incompetence, the luxury of carrying whatever it is that purports to be good about Darnell McDonald is one they cannot afford. Gomes’ .900+ OPS bat against lefties is desperately needed on this team. You can always defensive sub for him late in games if need be.
This is continuing lunacy on Walt Jocketty’s part.
When not lurking here, the sportsfrog is where I am.
I'm alive!
One complete rebuild of my home computer ater and here I am. The old girl seems to be running like a top, and I almost have all my shit moved over. Did you guys know most cloning programs don’t work with Vista?
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
i know most things dont work with Vista
so yes, i knew most cloning programs dont work with Vista.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't work well with Vista.
But then again, my handlers also keep sharp objects away from me.
Dusty Baker makes my balls hurt.
by PeteyHendrix on May 19, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
See, here's the thing
I got a free copy of Vista Ultimate for attending a Microsoft training/salespitch/bullshit seminar so I thought I’d build a machine for home and use it to get acquainted. I have since regretted this decision, never so much as when my hard drive started dying and I had to migrate. Ghost? Nope. (at least not my version) Robocopy raw transfer? Nope. Vista’s built in “backup” app? Nope. Fuck Vista says this guy.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
what do you teach, logic?
can we have a Venn diagram?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
logic, ethics, and writing
so if you write well and dont cheat, you will get a good grade.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
speaking of that
can i get rid of vista and install xp without losing everything saved on my computer? i’m fed up.
Good luck
It’ll depend on what it is. I would recommend burning off everything you want to keep (music/pictures/favorites/etc) and wiping it clean before installing XP. I would imagine that most everything would still work in XP unless it’s a special program or something. You’ll also need to make sure you have all the hardware drivers in their XP form.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
And Ken with a base knock up the middle!!
nicely done
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on May 19, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
At the risk of undergoing a beating
let me say one thing with a strong caveat. Dusty does get pilloried too much here and, well, everywhere. His prior success in SF seems to be forgotten, while his current success is unacknowledged. As Joe “let’s pull the infield in even though there’s a chance at a double play…ooops I just lost the World Series” Torre showed, most of what a manager does is outside of game time. He’s a politician, getting everyone to understand roles, dealing with the media, and allocating the coaching staff. Dusty is, the evidence argues, good at this.
Here’s my caveat, I cannot stand his strategic in game moves: he bunts constantly, double switches rarely, and all in all seems to his the wrong notes at strategy. But, I’m just not sure that means as much to a winning club as I used to, especially in the light of studies that show that it’s not. So, maybe we give ol’ Dusty a pass until he makes an egregious mistake, like letting his ace pitch five innings on two days rest.
by timb116 on May 19, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
for the most part I agree
but I somewhat blame him for Darnell McDonald still being on this team. I blame him for Corey Patterson and Josh Fogg last year. Bailey could have taken his lumps all year last year and we would have been better in the #5 slot than we were with Fogg.
But I must give Dusty a lot of credit, he has shown he will stick behind young guys like Bruce and Votto, and does recognize they are the future. If Tony LaRussa managed this team, Bruce would be in a platoon.
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle
I don't know about the Homer up all last season
I think getting your ass handed to you every fifth day would wear on the confidence of most 23 year old, whereas Fogg was used to sucking.
Homer was only 22 last season
he just turned 23 like last week.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
just backing you up pal
the confidence of a 22 year old is much more fragile than that of a 23 year old.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
i seem to remember reading that Krivsky signed Fogg without Bakers blessing
and Baker really wanted nothing to do with Fogg.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 19, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
You both put your daughter on the stroll
for formerly hyped, toolsy players that suck the life from the fanbase?
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on May 19, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I tried to post this as a Fan Shot, but I think Internet Explorer ate my "Publish" button
So we’ll just link to it here in the Reposter. HAVOC!
the best argument ive seen against Firefox yet
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
People who don't use Firefox are communists, studies have shown.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
hrrmm
im a communist and i use Firefox.
i fucked up your Christmas pretty good, didnt i?go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Christmas?
hell you fucked up his birthday also!
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
by obc2 on May 19, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
nope
the PC’s in the University of Havana used Explorer.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 19, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Check your logic...
He said nothing about all communists using Firefox.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
didn't see the word don't
than i concur, they use explorer in Cuba.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 19, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, isn't open source software sort of communist-y in principle?
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
ssssshhhhh
You’re fuckin’ up mah game.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
FWIW, Baseball America on Bailey:
Homer Bailey is no longer a prospect. He’s thrown 82 big league innings, which means he’s no longer rookie eligible. He first pitched for Triple-A Louisville in 2007, but he’s still there two years later after narrowly failing to beat out Micah Owings for the Reds’ fifth starter job.
So you may be wondering why he’s showing up in a Daily Dish? For all of his Triple-A and big league experience, it’s easy to forget that Bailey just turned 23, which makes him younger than Rays prospect David Price. So we’re making an exception today, one we may make a couple of other times through the season to look at a former prospect who hasn’t made it yet to try to help figure out if he ever will.
Watching Bailey’s most recent start on Wednesday evening against Wade Davis and the Durham Bulls summed up a lot of Bailey’s young career. His final line doesn’t look very good: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. But Bailey also showed some of the reasons that the Reds haven’t given up on him.
Bailey retired the first 12 batters he faced, carrying a perfect game into the fifth until Johnny Gomes lost a fly ball in the lights and watched it fall 10 feet away for a double. He managed to get out of that jam, but an inning later he gave up a two-run home run to Jon Webber. An inning later he gave up another two-run home run to Chris Richard, ending his night.
If you’re looking to make excuses for Bailey, it was a relatively dominating performance undone by two pitches. But then, it’s also fair to say that home runs have have been a problem for Bailey all year. He gave up only 10 home runs in 111 innings in Louisville last year, but he’s already given up nine home runs in 39 innings this year.
That’s the bad news for Bailey. On the plus side, he is a different looking pitcher than the one that arrived in Louisville in 2006. Back then Bailey brought his hands up over his head before breaking them in his wind-up. He then stabbed some with the ball as he rared back and fired mid-90s fastballs.
He has a much more compact motion now in an attempt to improve his once shaky command. He breaks his hands much lower and has reduced the stabbing motion in the back of his delivery. But according to Louisville pitching coach Ted Power, the biggest change is his stride. He used to have an exaggerated hip twist and an extremely long stride. He’s now shortened it because in his old delivery, when he tired he was prone to leaving the ball up in the zone.
Bailey also throws a different assortment of pitchers. He added a slider last year out of necessity. When Bailey first debuted in the big leagues in 2007, he used a hard-breaking 12-to-6 curveball to compliment his 93-95 mph fastball. But Bailey’s curveball came from a different, higher release point than his fastball. At the big league level, hitters recognized that and simply let them go, waiting to get a fastball they could drive.
“They would see the hand come up and they’d know it’s off speed, so they took it. Now his arm angle is the same for all of his pitches,” Power said.
The slider gives hitters something a little less recognizable to worry about, although he still will throw an occasional 75-79 mph curve (three by my unofficial count), as he showed against the Bulls. His changeup is a fourth pitch, although he throws it infrequently.
The fastball sat at 92-95 mph last Wednesday, although he still ran it up to 98 mph at least once out of the zone. It may not be the Nolan Ryan-esque gas he once had, but he’s not far off his old velocity. And velocity has never been Bailey’s problem–if he’s ever going to succeed in the big leagues, he’ll have to show improved command. There are signs that the toned-down delivery is helping. For Louisville Bailey is throwing strikes on 65.9 percent of his pitches this season, compared to 62.8 percent in 2008 and 60.58 percent in 2007.
This may explain Bailey’s problems: It is the Reds. I don’t buy the Major League hitter bs about his breaking ball. It rolled in 2007 while it was one of the best pitches in minors in 2006. They say they did it because hitters could tell what he was going to pitch. So what? That is the point, my stuff is so good hit it if you can. That is what power pitchers do.
Instead, after the Reds “adjustments” began with Pole in 2007 Bailey’s k/9 has plunged and his w/9 soared.
My apologies to Mr. Bailey. You need a new team pal.
I don't mean to say this isn't interesting stuff
But it’s a whole lot to just cut and paste. Perhaps some selective block quotes and a link next time, okay? Otherwise, it’s just plaigerism.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
They didn't, but reading it reminded me of all
the Octavio Dotel’s and Eric Gagne’s the world over….hard-throwing starters who couldn’t make it as starters and became closers.
Oh, and Johnny, of course major league hitters pick up things minor leaguer hitters don’t. Besides the difference in talent, there’s a difference in resources: better scouting, better video, and whole armies of front office people to notice something which might escape a Major League player (although with stories of Barry Bonds sitting on the bench at the All-Star game and being able to see the spin and rotation of the ball from that distance, I’m pretty sure the great players could figure that out.
I thought that Bonds story was a Johnny Bench story?
in Morgan’s autobiography he says something like “Bench thinks he could hit .600 if he could bat from the dugout”
Ali Boombaye
Ted Williams also had great eyesight
I just remember the news story about Bonds. Stands to reason Bench would have similar attributes
So what?
You can’t keep hitters guessing at the big league level if they know what’s coming. Because his curve was thrown at a different delivery point, hitters knew when to take, and they could sit back on the fastball. Even good power pitchers can’t throw fastballs every time and except to succeed.
Simply because he fooled minor leaguers in ‘06 2006 doesn’t mean he could do the same against major leaguers. Thus he had to change his delivery.
Also, I hope that’s not a subscriber-only article you just copied.
Sure he could fool MLB hitters
That is what “stuff” is all about. Give me the stuff over the deception. Clearly a Krivisky led change.
by Johnnypronto on May 19, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
"Stuff" only gets you so far if you're a starting pitcher
There are plenty of guys who can throw in the mid-90s. Very few of them succeed if the hitter consistently knows what’s coming.
Disagree
Stuff kills. You have a curveball hitters can’t hit, doesn’t matter if they know it is coming. They are dead. Stuff kills. Bailey would be a star right now if they had let him alone.
by Johnnypronto on May 19, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
If we outlaw stuff
then only outlaws will have stuff!
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
by Gray on May 19, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Didn't you read the article?
But Bailey’s curveball came from a different, higher release point than his fastball. At the big league level, hitters recognized that and simply let them go, waiting to get a fastball they could drive.
It does matter if they know it’s coming, because then they won’t swing, and wait for a fastball.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 19, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, don't buy it
That is a excuse. HIs curveball rolled in 2007. It didn’t in 2006. It rolled in 2007 because the Reds shortened his stride and took away his hip turn, in 2008 they took away his windup.
I see this article as BA basically telling us the Reds pov and excuses. Because it has been slow to pan out.
The hip turn in the key, that was the trigger to getting the breaking pitch to break.
by Johnnypronto on May 19, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Referendum:
How does “That is a excuse” stack up to “That is a coincidence and irrelevant”?
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I prefer the latter
but would be willing to use the former excessively as well.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
that would be a coincidence and irrelevant
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
You and your excuses
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
If he continued those actions he had no command
or did you miss that? You want Nook LaLoosh or do you want a pitcher?
Mantle used to say he could hit a bullet as long as it was straight,
whereas anything that moved was harder to hit.
Johnny, have you EVER played baseball? The reason a curveball is effective is because it starts out at your head and you involuntarily flinch. It’s why platoon splits exist. Deception is everything in baseball and pitcher practice millions of reps until they can throw their change with the same ’arm action" of their fastball.
The real Nomo is alice, but the ghost of career (the one who pitched those
last few seasons) lounges on the pile of money and chuckles about how much he hid the ball
i didn't even need to read all of that and i knew who wrote it
it’s so long you can’t see the name at the bottom without scrolling.
well
he didn’t write it. He heisted it from Baseball America.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Yeah...
I’m surprised SBN doesn’t have a stated policy about this sort of thing. Maybe RR needs one.
At any rate, I suggest snipping that article out for copyright infringement.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I thought about that
but I wasn’t around before several comments had been posted under it. I can’t edit the comment, so my only option would be to delete it, which would delete all subsequent comments in response to it.
FWIW, it’s not a pay article at least. You can read it here. The author is J.J. Cooper.
In the future, pronto, please don’t copy entire articles from other sites. Also, please use a blockquote around the article from the other site so that we can tell what comes from someone else and what comes from you. Finally, it’s a common courtesy to provide a link back to the author’s original article so that his site gets some hits for his effort.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
by Slyde on May 19, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Fay
Fay lies. Also, it’s only his readers who didn’t criticize Boone and Narron because they actually liked them. Third, isn’t Fay supposed to be on furlough?
Not sure what you're saying he lies about...
but the article is from May 16.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
It was in Sunday's Enquirer too
I read it and cumb’d.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
I'm disappointed with the mentality that's emerged around here lately.
We drop 3 games in a 162 game season and everyone’s ready to sell the barn and rebuild. Maybe there are a few trades that would benefit the team in the long run, but let’s enjoy this season and trust Mr. Jocketty a little bit.
What are you talking about?
I don’t think a discussion of who would be traded means that people actually want to trade these guys. It was just a discussion about something that had been raised in an article.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Oh. Ok.
My bad Gray! I just feel like I’ve read a lot of “we’re not going to win this season,” “Jocketty is building for the future,” etc., around this blog lately. My apologies and gratitude for being misguided.
Well, recent moves have suggested
that Jocketty is building for the future, not this year, and I’m not sure how noting that means that someone wants to “sell the barn and rebuild.”
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Kind of the consensus around here before the season got underway was that 2010 was the year to really expect a serious playoff run
We got off to a better start than anyone really expected, and suddenly competing for the playoffs this year seemed more realistic. But Geki made a good point the other day that if we’re going to be a good team, then we can’t be getting swept by the Padres of the world. That, and the adventures in DLing make it seem like the team isn’t totally serious about competing this year, and anything we get along those lines is gravy.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
ahem
they only won 83 games. and IIRC, they had a 75-win pythag.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
ahem
They had an 82-win pythag.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
oh yeah?
i must not be recalling correctly
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
is that a young Johnny Cash
with an old Ryan Gosling?
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The 75 may be their third-order wins
I think that was mentioned in one of the Reposter articles this past week.
rec'd for awesome correction which helps make my point
I’m thinking we make a great team, Charlie. I make the correct point with bad facts and you clean it up for me. Maybe in the future I should just them to you first? With a retainer naturally!
sounds good to me
of course, a retainer is going to cost you.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Speak for yourself
I wanna trade Bronson, have for a long time. I have no real good reason (other than the money), I just wanna piss off obc.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
yeah dude
no one is saying we should sell the barn, just discussing who should be traded in the event. it’s way too early to be giving up on this team, and anyone who does is a communist.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, OK! My bad.
As long as we’re all still happy and optimistic. I mean, it’s early in the season. The handling of injured players has been suspect, and we lost some games due to some bad breaks in San Diego, but I’m glad people aren’t giving up on this club. It’s nice to see guys hustling, playing the game the right way, competing, that sort of thing. All these off days must be getting to my head.
the phrase "playing the game the right way" makes me sad
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
by Slyde on May 19, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Wait, why?
What’s wrong with hustle, not building around pulling HR-hitters and instead emphasizing gap-to-gap power, good pitching and defense?
why is that THE right way to play?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Above!
Don’t try to be something you’re not (Brandon Phillips). Play to your strengths (Votto). Don’t be Adam Dunn. Be Albert Pujols. Run things out, give Freelian effort in the field (minus the stupid injuries that result), don’t cheat (don’t be A-Rod, be Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime). Don’t be dumb on the basepaths, show patience at the plate. Don’t be Adam Rosales at 3B defensively.
oh man
you dont want players to be something they are not, but you want Adam Dunn to be Albert Pujols? come on.
truth is, it doesnt matter if you win by clobbering the snot out of the ball or pitching their lights out. i just want to win.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't want Adam Dunn on my team.
I don’t like guys that can’t hit in the clutch, can’t field and strike out a ton.
whether you like him or not
he’s still a valuable player. he hits a lot of home runs and doesnt make many outs. it’s fine if you dont like him, but dont relate “liking” to “being valuable”.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
When has Adam Dunn ever been valuable?
He’s put up good offensive numbers, but he’s not been a consistent “winner”. I’m not saying he’s bad, but I wouldn’t build a team around him.
every single year of his career
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a difference between a "valuable" player and "guy you can build a team around"
He’s not Albert Pujols, and it’s that expectation from Cincinnati media and fans throughout his tenure here that gave him the bad rap he’s got. He does two things, and does them well. You can’t build a team around that, but you can use his skills in a lineup and he’ll produce.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
You're free to not like certain players
But here’s an interesting post by BLee2525 on the topic of Dunn’s clutchness.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Statistics are 100% correct half the time.
What is Dunn’s career BA wRISP? I’m not going to argue about it, because I have no idea.
lmbrtfy
With RISP, career: .226/.417/.480
Career totals: .248/.383/.520
If you don’t value walks at all, that’s not so great. Then again, he has gotten on base 41.7% of the time and slugged .480. Is that playing the game the wrong way?
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I hope "lmbrtfy" catches on
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 19, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Not so bad, but RISP numbers are worse!
I don’t want to talk about Dunn anymore. I don’t have passionate beliefs about him, and I think I’m arguing because people are arguing with me! I like the Reds, can we all be friends?
yeah, we can
as long as you swear allegiance to our hive mind and promise to ignore Marty and tHom and George Grande, etc
and i have a feeling
he walked more with RISP because he never had anyone hitting behind him to worry about. pitchers were perfectly willing to walk him to face whoever happened to be batting 6th or 7th that day.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
How about even one level deeper
Dunn’s splits by leverage situation (i.e. when the game was on the line versus when it was in hand):
high leverage: .242/.398/.515
medium leverage: .244/.375/.514
low leverage: .254/.383/.528
His BABIP in high leverage situations was .283 compared to .300 in low leverage situations, for what it’s worth. Basically, he was the same player no matter the game situation.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Career BA w/RISP
Is probably the worst micro-level stat with which to judge a player.
Talk about cherry-picking stats when trying to prove your point…..
by Highlifeman21 on May 19, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Bill James estimated Dunn was the fifth most clutch hitter
in baseball last year. Don’t listen to sMarty, listen to the numbers
So, if your choices are...
Adam Dunn and his established career vs. the “established careers” of what and whom we’ve played in LF this year, you pick the however many headed monster we currently have out in LF over Adam Dunn?
You can’t really be serious, can you?
by Highlifeman21 on May 19, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
It's the beauty of the game
You can win by being a pop songstress, smooth soul singer, spasmodic blue-eyed soul manchild, country singer, or fey rock god.
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
What was wrong with being Adam Dunn of you were Adam Dunn?
I wish he still stood in left-field (I was gonna say roamed, but that would have been crazy)
They are selfish
They hit HR’s instead of doubles into the gap
Yeah!
Hank Aaron shoulda been higher than 10th on the career doubles list!
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing.
But there’s something wrong with Adam Dunn, despite his consistent numbers. There’s a reason guys like David Wright and Chase Utley are so much more coveted than Dunn despite having less raw power..
So playing the game the right way
just means playing in a way that makes you feel all warm and fuzzy?
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I assume you're joking...
but basically you are arguing for some non-existent factor that just feels right to you personally…
And yeah, I’m not seeing how that’s something to strive for in building a team.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I mean, it can be simplified.
I like guys that hustle (that doesn’t mean Adam Rosales is my favorite player, but I think Brandon Phillips is a lot better for an offense when he’s running hard). I like guys that don’t loaf around in the outfield. Maybe I should have said “I like guys that try as hard as they can every time they have a chance to do something.”
Well, that's where many people here differ.
I generally value results over process. If Taveras really can get on base by bunting, then yeah, I don’t mind if he does…even though I don’t particularly like bunting.
Similarly, I don’t spend time trying to figure out if Dunn is playing hard or “the right way” or whatever—I just look at his results. And his results were strong: he got on base a ton and hit a lot of HRs. He also was a mediocre defender and struck out a lot. But these results are much more important than whatever route he took to get them. To me, at least.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Results are really nice.
But isn’t there some correlation between effort and results? Again, I’m not saying Dunn was bad. But he clearly wasn’t an integral piece of a winning team, and in Washington he never will be. Would he be nice in the Reds lineup now? Probably. Would he be producing at a .300 BA clip? Hard to say. I don’t think arguing about Dunn is particularly constructive anyway. He was just awful in August and September, and that’s all I remember.
Sure there is a correlation...
But I’d rather take out the middleman (and my own shoddy skills with interpreting what I see on TV as The Truth) and actually look at results.
And it’s not about Dunn or anybody else. All Slyde was trying to suggest is that there isn’t a whole lot to the idea of “playing the game the right way,” since it means whatever you want it to means, and it’s only (at best) loosely correlated with results.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
yeah, we sort of got distracted when Dunn was brought up
(why do we always get sucked into those discussions?)
What I don’t like about that phrase is that people only use it to describe a style of play that they prefer, whether or not that style has any proof of actually being productive. I really don’t care what style of play a team plays, though I have theories on the most effective way to be successful. What I really care about is whether or not a team is winning and whether they can continue to win. If they win every game 1-0, that doesn’t make them a better team than a team that wins every game 9-8. Everything beyond that is aesthetics.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
it's ridiculous to say dunn gave no effort
people think just because they see a player for three hours a day during the game that they know all about the work ethic of players. players spend 12 hours a day at the ballpark. makes no sense to me at all how people can claim to know how much “effort” a player puts in.
guys who put forth no effort are not major league baseball players.
On a related note
why doesn’t Rosales run back to the dugout after he strikes out? He does after a fly ball or ground out
I think I see him run everywhere he goes.
He even runs out to the team bus and runs when he goes to the library.
And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...
by Paul Householder on May 19, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
He runs through the drive-thru at Starbucks so he doesn't have to stop
And doesn’t own a car, he just sprints everywhere
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 19, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
of course those guys are more coveted
they are both awesome hitters and awesome defenders. They are better players. That in no way proves that Dunn plays the game the wrong way. He just has his limitations compared to the best players in the league. Just like Brandon Phillips and Willy Taveras.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Could it be they play in New York and Philadelphia
and one of them plays second base (and does it well) rather than left field and that Jon Miller tells me Met fans are angry at David Wright for not being “clutch” enough (he said that Sunday and I just openly wept at the stupidity of the met fan)
Do you run to your computer to post?
Do you run to the bathroom?
Do you run everywhere you go?
If so, then you’re doing it the right way.
And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...
by Paul Householder on May 19, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I never was happy. Optomistic sometimes, but happy is pushing it.
The whole concept of ‘the right way’ is seriously limiting from a connotative standpoint.
If you use that phrase around these parts,,well you’d better be packin’ stranger…
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
I really, truly just meant I like it when I hear about a player putting in extra practice, and..
see players really busting their butts to perform. I’m as results-oriented as the next fan, but I like to hear about hard work!
There are those who believe that process = product
Those who think that production and results come from the processes of effort, hustle and hard work.
Those who are certain that results come from a combination of processes (hustle etc. and talent).and luck.
Me…..I say – Never Try and Never, ever Care – That’s the Madville Way. Why – There is no right or wrong way to win.Winning is the right way. As Slyde so elegantly phrased it ’the rest is all aesthetics".
WHICH ONE OF THESE GUYS PLAYED THE GAME RIGHT WAY?
Ruth was notoriously lax and a boozer
Pete worked hiss butt off
Ted couldn’t have given a shit abut anyone but Ted
Tony was a leader’s leader…
Take any 10 great players and tell which one’s style/approach was the correct one.
If you can prove that there is a ‘right way to play the game’ that is always successful then obc will buy you a beer for me.
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
I dont believe the manager is really that important to winning or losing games, but Baker is certainly doing better than those two poor souls ever did.
if that’s the case then we should have kept pete. at least he once brought in a fifth infielder and pulled it off. that’s worth more than dusty’s daughter, right?
"I never use a big word when a diminutive one will work." — Pete Mackanin.
Pete would still be managing this team (into the ground, BTW)
if he hadn’t been banned. How he could finish second with the team’s he had….just a terrible manager
Pretty sure josh means Pete "Loose" Mackanin
by Brendanukkah on May 19, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
i think he's talking about Pete Mackaninamanckin
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey all
I’m going to the game tonight, my number is in the Reposter for 4-24-09 if anyone wants to meet up.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
text me
coz i am skurred of random numbers
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 19, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll be there
but with family in tow, so I doubt I’ll be doing a meet up this time.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
i think you should meet all the RR's @ GABP this evening
dogs and all.
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
Darnell McDonald gets the start tonight
Weakest line up of the year?
1. Taveras CF
2. Hairston 3B
3. Phillips 2B
4. Bruce RF
5. Hernandez C
6. Rosales 1B
7. McDonald LF
8. Gonzalez SS
9. Cueto
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
This line up allows Cueto to throw a CG shutout in or doer to win
Pretty nice of Dusty
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
that looks an awful lot like a
4 game losing streak.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 19, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Pursuant to an earlier discussion on manager's attributes
Here’s Joel Sheehan writing in Baseball Prospectus about Joe Girardi’s agonizing moves and echoing my contempt for small-ball, bunting, and giving outs to the opposition for no reason:
Managers never, ever get criticized for bunting. There’s so much morality associated with small ball, with “playing the game the right way,” that having a player, especially a good hitter, lay down a sacrifice will always return goodwill. That doesn’t make it right, and when bunts do little to add to your chance of winning a game, they should be called out. Just because there’s a mythology attached to a tactic doesn’t mean the tactic can be implemented without an analysis of its effects. The two bunts Joe Girardi called for yesterday were bad ideas.
The whole article is worth a read, but I hope Dusty know every time he calls for a superfluous bunt, an angel loses its wings.
Sheehan has about 8 columns like this
that he keeps in the can and trots out every so often. The BP Idol contest is a good idea because they really need some new blood.
Anyone hear that Micah is pitching tomorrow?
That’s bad right? Or are they misinformed?
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on May 19, 2009 5:04 PM EDT reply actions
WLW was my source there
I got to go down to the stadium and whip batteries at the players on both teams. - Philly Boy Roy
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on May 19, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Reds.com
has Owings pitching on Thursday now, with Harang going Wednesday and pushing EV back to Friday. That’s regular rest for Owings from his relief outing, and he had three days of rest for that, so it looks like this should be OK…so long as Voltron isn’t hurt.
Unless part of the Reds’ master plan is to blow out Owings’ arm so that he becomes a fielder full time.
the reds could have Bronson pitch Friday
and give Voltron and extra day of rest, but Dusty probably doesn’t want to have too “soft tossers” back to back.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 19, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
All this talk about playing the game the right way is eerily relevant to Joe Poz' post about Steve Phillips and the great "Intangibles"
I’m not going to quoute the article, nor am I going to give you the link because I’m certain you have already read the article. And if not, you most certainly have Poz’ blog linked up there in your favorites. If not, you wouldn’t understand the article anyway.
Who is Poz?
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
Oh who the hell cares....
Players at the MLB level who are successful over any given period of time all play the game the right way,
Here’s a goodly sample of how to properly approach the game…
http://www.satchelpaige.com/quote2.html
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
I bet he wasn't effective
Good pitchers hide their balls before the release.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Seriously?
How do I not get banned for posting a Jame Gumb picture here?
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
To quote Mr. Paige:
“I use my single windup, my double windup, my triple windup, my hesitation windup, my no windup. I also use my step-n-pitch-it, my submariner, my sidearmer and my bat dodger. Man’s got to do what he’s got to do.”
"Work like you don't need the money. Love like you've never been hurt. Dance like nobody's watching."
Satchel Paige
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