Help Me Exorcise the Demons of 2006
by Slyde on May 14, 2009 1:18 PM EDT
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PrintThe Reds have been playing some exciting baseball so far in May. They are 9-4 on the month and have outscored their opponents 80-55 in those those 13 games.
So why can't I fully give in to the excitement that is starting to take over Redsland?
I know many of you probably think it's because I'm a sourpuss who doesn't like anything that's fun, and while that it probably somewhat true, I think it also has to do with the fact that I can't get the 2006 season out of my mind when I watch this team. That year the Reds came out of the gate like gangbusters. They started the season by going 23-12, outscoring their opponents 191-173 in their first 35 games and even JD was starting to believe. As we all know, that team went on to finish the season 57-70 the rest of the way, falling short of a winning record by two games.
So, why is this year's team different?
Offensively, the 2006 team had a clear advantage after 34 games:
| Year | Record | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | 22-12 | 1334 | 1149 | 186 | 306 | 73 | 3 | 47 | 171 | 151 | 14 | 236 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 34 | 6 | .266 | .356 | .458 | .813 |
| 2009 | 20-14 | 1314 | 1144 | 158 | 301 | 57 | 6 | 34 | 148 | 118 | 6 | 228 | 15 | 26 | 11 | 24 | 9 | .263 | .337 | .413 | .750 |
The only thing the 2009 team does better is hit triples and sacrifice itself. Heck, the 2006 team was even more HAVOCKY, stealing 10 more bases while being caught 3 fewer times!
Of course, as you'd probably guess, the pitching and defense have been much better in 2009, but there are still areas for concern:
| Year | Rslt | IP | BF | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | ERA | SO% | BB% | HR% | WHIP | OPSA | DER |
| 2006 | 22-12 | 299 | 1313 | 325 | 169 | 149 | 97 | 222 | 51 | 14 | 4.48 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.41 | .813 | .686 |
| 2009 | 20-14 | 307.1 | 1313 | 286 | 147 | 135 | 129 | 234 | 32 | 15 | 3.95 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 1.35 | .715 | .701 |
I love to see the drop in home runs, and the improvement in Defensive Efficiency (DER) is enough to take the team from what would be 12th place in the NL this year to 5th place. That is a big reason why the Reds have cut down on their unearned runs and why the team has given up 39 fewer hits than in 2006. I don't like the fairly large increase in walks, especially when only counteracted with a much smaller increase in strikeouts. Despite facing the same number of batters, the pitchers have thrown about 170 more pitchers so far this year, that is in large part because of the walks. So while the pitching is better in 2009, it is much less efficient.
In 2006, the pitching more or less maintained their rate for the remainder of the season, but the offense slipped a lot, especially in August and September. Unfortunately, the pitching and defense wasn't good enough to make up for a lack offense when it happened.
And that's my fear this year. Is the pitching good enough to keep the Reds winning even when the offense goes back to faltering or are we setting up another season like 2006 where one side of the equation falters and it kills the season as a whole?
What do you think? Are my fears worthwhile, or should I just shut up and enjoy the ride?
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Comments
is it still early enough
to peg some of the walk rate on a few issolated incidents such as Cueto’s second start, and early Volquez? Also given the type of pitcher that Volquez is, can’t that also explain the walk rate in itself?
Bloop
Fear is for fruits!
Enjoy it!
"I'm standing at the plate thinking, Where are my hands? Where's this, where's that? Before I know it, the pitch is there and I'm completely out of rhythm." -
-- Adam Dunn
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on May 14, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions
Quit being a homophobe.
Your handle and sig are both stupid.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone woke up on the wrong side of the endoscope this morning
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
Sorry I don't feel like letting borderline hatespeech go unchecked
I am feeling like the Johnny Gomes of this blog today.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh please
He was making a joke. No need to be oversensitive. Both of you.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
maybe D was being over sensitive
but what if he dropped the “N-bomb”? I make “homophobic” jokes from time to time, and I shouldn’t. Will we reach a point where it isn’t okay to say things like that in casual conversation?
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You're arguning against yourself here
He was making a joke. I think his comment was tongue in cheek. JNG has not been combative in the past to the best of my knowledge. A quick search of his comments confirms this. No need to crucify someone for a joke taken the wrong way is all I’m saying.
I’m arguing with you, by the way. If you restrict language you restrict thought. Make the the most offensive joke you can in the sake of comedy and I will applaud you and laugh with you. Make the same joke in the name of hate and I’ll condemn you and ban your ass. Does that make sense?
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
i'm saying i do fight with myself
and that things like this, that i also do, reinforce stereotypes. Maybe I woke up on the wishy-washy, pc liberal side of the bed this morning.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
People..please...get a life
This PC shit stinks like self righteousness…come on please..
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
It is one thing to make a jocular joke
wherein you rib someone for their supposedly dubious sexuality. My friends and I do this all the time, and I’ve done it on this blog. I don’t think even that is entirely right, but….
It is a much more malicious thing to indiscriminately ascribe a negative trait to a whole set of people. This comment is just like Dusty’s much-maligned (especially here) comment where he made huge generalizations about racial “differences”.
I understand it is a joke, and he likely didn’t mean anything by it, but to a gay lurker, it is shorthand for, “oh, this is an intolerant community.”
Is that the vibe we wanna give off? Just sayin’.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 15, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I did come off kind of harsh, though
sorry, JNG, for attacking the person rather than the idea.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 15, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's the thing
It is not my our anyone else’s responsibility to make someone comfortable with any part of their persona.
I have a shit ton of characteristics that people make fun of on a daily basis. I get over it. I expect everyone else to do the same.
He wasn’t denigrating gay people IMO, he was making a joke based on the 50s/60s stereotypical white male idealism.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
You choose to impregnate.
Slyde chooses to drink Captain and diet.
People don’t choose to be gay.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 15, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Colin has a point
If we want to be inclusive, there needs to be a line separating the offensive from the merely humurous. It’s a difficult line to draw, and it’s determined in part but not solely by the commenter’s intent (which in any event is difficult to divine on an internet forum). JNG seems like a nice enough guy from his prior posts, and I don’t think his joke came out of hate. And the joke itself is fairly benign as far these things go. But it’s still not the type of comment that broadcasts RR as an open community. In that respect I disagree that it’s not our responsibility to make others comfortable. How can we reasonably expect a gay commenter/lurker to feel comfortable if there are jokes like that floating around? If it’s one isolated comment – which is the case here – that’s one thing. But we may as well nip this in the bud.
My $0.02.
Sorry I offended so many of you.
My intent was to disparage Slyde, not the entire LGBT community. Maybe I should stick to lurking.
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on May 15, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Again, sorry for coming at you personally
it was wrong of me. You did not intend to offend. It is just something to be aware of. I, for one, would be sad if you stopped commenting.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 15, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
the increase in walks
is that because of a few games where pitchers walked a bunch – edinson’s 7 in one game and cueto’s 6 in his first start, for example.
i want to say this year is different than 2006 because the pitching is real. don’t know how we managed to win 80 games with that 06 staff.
but at the same time, i’m trying not to get hopes up.
actually
Harang and Arroyo were pretty fucking good in 06, and Milton put togeather a few strong runs, his ERA is a bit inflated from 3 starts effected by injuries. In May Milton had minor knee surgery, and his last start before the surgery and his first start after surgery were terrible, and his last start of the season before elbow surgery was terrible.
In those 3 starts he threw 9 2/3 innings, gave up 20 ER’s, struck out 7, walked 6 and allowed 6 homeruns.
I venture to guess if you remove those 3 injury effected starts from his season he would have had an ERA+ over 100, because 20 ER’s in 9 2/3 innings will hurt you real fast.
Plus the Lizard looked pretty good for a time, before he hurt his shoulder, and Lohse was league average. The problem was more trying to find a 5th starter, and replacing MIlton at the end of the season.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I was surprised to see that the 2006 staff was only slightly below average in R/G
They surrendered 4.94 R/G compared to the NL average of 4.85.
2009 is definitely different than 2006 in terms of how it is getting done. Maybe that is reason to be optimistic, but I haven’t gotten myself there yet.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Your tables don't look right in normal mode :)
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
On the front page, that is
The end gets cut off. I need a new monitor. Anyone wanna gift me a widescreen?
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
I know now is not the time for you to be making purchases
but I recently bought this one and for the price, it’s an excellent monitor so far.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Damn, that's a really good price
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
its an even better deal
now that the odds of crazy smashing it have been greatly reduced.
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
Or at least smashing is more affordable
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on May 14, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Newegg
is the whip.
"I'm standing at the plate thinking, Where are my hands? Where's this, where's that? Before I know it, the pitch is there and I'm completely out of rhythm." -
-- Adam Dunn
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on May 14, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
easy
If the starting 5 average 6+ IP/start and dont miss any starts then this team could very well stay competitive most of the season.
the room for error is razor thin.
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
Razor thin?
We’re one Joey Votto knee injury from seeing Wes Bankston (something that became obvious Tuesday night) or a back-up catcher of positively Bako-esque performance (assuming Hernandez moved to first). We’re one Cueto or Volquez elbow strain from watching Maloney and Bailey. This team is fragile and pitching injuries, which will happen, will hamstring this normally poor offense.
Count me as a pessimist with Slyde, although I am enjoying watching these game SO much. Reminds me of 1990, not that any of you whipper-snappers remember 1990 (and not that the Reds won their first 9 games of the season).
I was already taking paternity tests in 1990, dude
I’m no spring chicken.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
I had my own FL pad in 1990
there’s a perfectly good explanation why i put my car in the ocean that summer…
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
I don't know why I rec'd that
I’m reaching an age where that comment actually kind of depressed me. But it was funny anyways.
The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!
but this team also has depth that hasn't been seen in years past
this team has 7 or 8 pitchers that may be starters on other teams in baseball, Bailey, Maloney, and maybe even Masset, so this team has some decent pitching depth when those injuries occur. Maybe this team will go all 2004 St. Louis on our ass and only use 8 starting pitchers, and only needing 8 starts from pitchers who didn’t start the year in the rotation.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I admire the optimism, justin
but I see Massett as league average at best and the same with Maloney. Homer is capable of something, but whether he shows it this year or within the next three is up to the Baseball Gods, who are like Jacob from Lost.
murder'd
sorry, spoiler
That was a crazy episode. I was exhausted at the end.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
what i am trying to say though
is that is still a position of depth for this team, most teams don’t have 2 or 3 starting pitchers who can step in and not be bombed.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
I’m still somewhat on the fence, though leaning optimism. What’s nice is one of the reasons the Reds is defense which shouldn’t fluctuate as much as other things.
I think some regression in the overall pitching numbers is to be expect, especially for Cueto. I like Cueto, but he’s not under 2.00 ERA good. Not yet anyway. I guess the other guys are about where you expect them to be. If there are injuries… well let’s say I’m not sold on Bailey stepping in and being good.
On the offense. I can’t figure they can improve where they are at. Especially when lately they’ve been getting production from Nix in left. Votto’s also good, but probably not this good. I think Bruce is about where you can expect him. Phillips is finally hitting. I expect him to end up somewhere between where he started out the year and the later results.
Overall the Red’s as a team are incredibly hot right now. To not expect some regression is insane. Just how much.
The Reason our Offense went in the tank in 2006
Is because we traded two of our starting 8 position players, and got back a has been (Clayton), a guy we sent to AAA (Brendan Harris), and two relievers with Bum Arms (Majewski, Bray). I guess we did get Darryl Thompson.
I think had we not made that trade we would of been better at the end. Bottom line is it was a horrendous bullpen, and Sweaterpants had to try and fix it. Turned out he gave up too much offense to address it, and what we got back didn’t help.
BTW, I will post a Fan Shot, Lance McAllister says Bill Bray is getting Tommy John next week.
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle
Also, Dunn picked a bad time for the worst slump of his career
700 and 595 OPSs in August in September. Junya was out most of his September – can’t recall what he hurt. Phillips and Encarnacion both had good Augusts but crap Septembers. Basically that whole team stopped hitting at the end except for the Bad Man.
Didn't Dunn
Have a knee injury he was playing thru? I think I remember having a knee scope once they were out of it.
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle
His knee was scoped after '07
He did have a hand injury he played through in ‘05. Was there a shoulder problem in ’06, maybe? I can’t remember.
Was that the "bungee-jumping from the tesicle" injury?
No, I think he was out with a broken toe or something. I remember getting pretty mad because, dammit!, we were in a playoff race, and he was going to let a toe sideline him.
by Brendanukkah on May 14, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Come on baby why dont you show some class....
why you wanna move so fast?
we dont have to take our clothes off to have a good time.
(the ladies picked the background music at the office today. that has to be the single most ridiculous lyric in the history of pop music. i’d forgotten about that song and i literally laughed out loud in the middle of the lobby hearing it a few mins ago.)
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
Those are lies
I don’t think I’ve ever had fun without my clothes off. For instance I’m having alot of fun right now…
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on May 14, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
A 3.95 ERA and .701 DER
is much more within the realm of sustainability as a team then a .815 OPS, I believe, no matter who the personnel.
Ali Boombaye
Agree'd
Plus, you had a bunch of guys playing out of their minds 2 months into that year. For example: Austin Kearns—.976 OPS, Todd Coffey—.90 ERA, EdE—.920 OPS (which, for the record, I think he’s capable of for a season, he’s just never shown it. He ended 2006 with an OPS of .830) Arroyo—2.03 ERA
The case can be made some guys on this year’s team are playing at a level they can’t sustain. I would argue that this team has more young, improving talent, whereas in 2006 it was more older, declining talent, or no talent at all (Brandon Claussen and Dave Williams in the rotation!!!)
Plus, the bullpens are no comparison.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
at that time it looked like Claussen was rising
he had a terrible 2004 but he put up an ERA+ of 101 in 2005. It seemed like he may have been turning the corner and could be a league average pitcher. He also had a strong start in 2006, before he started to show the effects of his injury.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
when i said he started out 2006 strong
i meant he kinda sucked.
I just looked at his game log from 2006, and he had a few nice starts, but was pretty shitty overall.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree on your age assessment for 2006
The only regular starters deep on the wrong side of 30 for that team were Junior, Hatteberg and Aurilia, with the latter 2 platooning. The core of that lineup was Dunn, Kearns, Lopez, and EdE.
The bullpen is essentially made up of the same type of players and they posted a slightly higher ERA in the first 34 games in a slightly higher run scoring environment. I’m not sure why you think this season’s bullpen is automatically superior. I think it’s pretty clear that a few of the pitchers in the bullpen are pitching way over their heads right now (Rhodes won’t go scoreless all year, DRH has a WHIP close to his ERA, Weathers is pitching as well as he ever has, which makes me believe it won’t last).
The only place the Reds are significantly younger this year is in the starting rotation. I think this is the wild card in comparison to 2006, but I don’t think it will be consistently good enough all season to overcome the likely fall off of the offense.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I think that this is the offense that we'll see for the rest of the year
and by that I don’t mean the past 10 days, I mean the average production we’ve seen thus far. I wouldn’t be expecting too much improvement, though hopefully a little regression to the mean on each side (less Harang-esque losses, less 10-3 wins).
I also can’t imagine the pitching not getting significantly worse. If Cueto can put up a 2.9ish ERA, I think we’d all be doing backflips. And sooner or later, someone is going to beat the everliving snot out of the lefites out of the pen, and Weathers will do whatever it is that he does.
But you know, there’s still improvement from Burton and plenty of live arms in AAA (Viola, LeCure, Fisher) to shore up the pen. And don’t forget Maloney/Bailey/LeCure, too.
The wildcard is probably the looming potential of a trade. The Reds are really in a position to deal away some pitching for a real good bat , assuming that Nix isn’t it after all.
Could Beltre be coming after all at 3b? (and yes, I realize he’s hitting like shit right now, but that’ll come around, Insh’Allah). Dye? Holliday? I think that a bizarro-TheTrade could be be big this year.
Ali Boombaye
I think Masset and Richard for Dye would be a fine deadline deal
Get it?
Dye should be a Red RIGHT now and I’m still angry at them for not pulling that trigger
really?
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, really. he's kinda good and they only didn't do it because of money
It’s not like he’d be blocking anyone right now, except Laynce Nix
Yeah,
but Bailey and his potential are gone, and so is the good OF defense
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
while i agree the Reds need a LFer
i completely disagree that Dye is that guy, especially for the money he is paid and ESPECIALLY for Homer Bailey. Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, Juan Rivera, Nick Swisher, Pat Burrell, etc all either signed for significantly less than Dye is being paid or were traded (Swisher) for less than what the Reds would have given up. and all are comparable to Dye in terms of value, if not better.
the Reds need a LFer who can hit, but Jermaine Dye aint it.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
For one season?
How would such a contract hamstring them? Dye’s contract larger than those other guys, but you’re 1) acting like they’d have to sign him to a four year extension and 2) acting like it’s Baseball Mogul, where you get more points from winning with a smaller payroll. It’s Big Bob’s money, not mine, and I don’t see how 11.5 puts him in the poor house .
ForBbailey, the maybe/probably prospect and someone else, you get “Dye returned to form in 2008 for the division champion White Sox, finishing second in the American League with 77 extra-base hits and batting .292 with 34 home runs overall.”
Oh, and nyc, sure trading for quality hurts, but it wouldn’t hurt this defense that much. Bruce and taveras are the stars of the OF defense.
For the 30 bombs and BP hitting sixth, I’d gladly give up Homer Bailey.*
*I don’t have a ton of faith in Homer, in case you haven’t noticed.
Actually,
the LF platoon has been a few runs above average so far, and Dye is way, way below average.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
I understand, but left field is left field
there’s a reason Adam Dunn, Ted Williams, and Kevin Mitchell played left and it wasn’t because they were defensive geniuses
Maybe, but right now
the Reds LFers are +5 runs in LF, while Dye is -5. That 10 run swing is good for a win or two, and at this point probably negates whatever offensive boost he’d give. Even if it doesn’t I’m not interested in losing Bailey for 1 extra win this year. I can’t see Dye supplying much more than that.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
i didnt say anything about hamstringing contracts
my point is that guys like Burrell and Abreu were available for much, much less money and no prospects. why overpay?
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
Reds really should have added Swisher. He would have been a great addition, and the Yanks got him for very little. We would of have to give up Darryl Thompson and another prospect.
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle
I didn't mean to get into rehashing hot stove debates
but I don’t think anyone here is anti-more offense. So if the LF melange can keep on doing what they’re doing, wonderful. There are still questions on the left side of the infield, depending on what you think EE can do when he returns and your faith in Perry Gonsales.
Ali Boombaye
EE can OPS around .800
and make some errors, and make us think only if he played better defense.
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 14, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
i wonder about him this year
is his the kind of injury that can linger? what shoulder was it? i worry he might not even be a productive hitter this year
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
he had a bone chip in his left wrist
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
What's the status on Roenicke?
No one’s mentioning him as a bullpen option. Has he been getting shelled? Hurt?
by Brendanukkah on May 14, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
All hits and strikeouts
in 12 innings he has 15 Ks and has allowed 17 hits. No walks and no home runs allowed. His ERA is 4.50 with the 6 runs he’s surrendered coming in 4 of his 11 outings. I’m guessing he’s still an option, but given the lack of need at this point, we won’t hear much about him. With the way Pedro Viola, Carlos Fisher, and Robert Manuel are pitching, I wouldn’t be surprised if Roenicke is 3rd or 4th on the AAA depth chart.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Although he's flying under the radar, especially not being on the 40-man
We may see Viola sooner rather than later, even before Fisher maybe.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 14, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I see Bray getting put on the 60-Day DL
and Viola coming up an DRH going down.
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle
I don't see DRH going down
his ERA is 1.98. Even though that’s not a good way to evaluate relievers, it’s hard to look at that and consider the guy a failure.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Yeah but didn't you say his WHIP was around that mark too
Sooner or later if he keeps giving up that many baserunners, he will have a few bad outings.
Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle
right
I just don’t see DRH getting sent down right now. Doesn’t mean he won’t be sent down ever, just not if he keeps doing what he do.
And his WHIP is 1.61. I was exaggerating a bit, but it’s still very high for his ERA.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
It's still a small sample size though.
I mean, he’s only pitched 13-2/3 innings. Sure, he’s given up 7 walks and 15 hits, but shave a couple of each off and he’s only got a WHIP of 1.32.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
oh, I agree
but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been somewhat lucky so far in terms of his ERA. It’s hard to put that many people on base and not give up runs. If he continues to do that, we’ll see his ERA rise and possibly a demotion. But I don’t think any of that is a necessity at this point.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Yeah, even as I was writing it
I thought it maybe wasn’t true….just to lazy to doublecheck. What I do think, though, is the talent level of that team wasn’t where this one is. Obviously the offense is better, but I believe Bruce will be better than Kearns was that year, Taveras will hopefully be better than Freel, and of course noone will be better than Dunn, but at least the defense will be. EdE shouldn’t be worse than he was, SS is probably a wash (Felipe wasn’t that good in ‘06, and Clayton was AWEFUL) BP is BP, and I’ll take Votto over Hatteberg every day and twice on Sunday. The rotation has two of the same guys, and giganta-normous improvement in the other three spots. I don’t see any reason to think that Cueto, Volquez, and Owings/Bailey can’t continue to outperform Milton/Ramirez/Claussen/Lohse/Williams. It’s really no contest. Those 5 combined for 78 starts with a 5.50 ERA.
Fair point about the ‘pen, but with CoCo, Burton (who should still improve), Weathers and Rhodes being solid, and Masset as a solid long man, I think the pen is much, much better. Exhibit A….. After the top 4 bullpen guys, we got 242 IP of 5.50 ERA from 14 different pitchers. I’m betting we do better than that this year. Look at all of the potentially solid bullpen arms in Louisville when someone goes down this year.
And forget about the defensive difference
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
*meant the offense was better in 06
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
The injury to bray
really hurts the bullpen in my opinion. I counted on Bray and Burton to be my 8th inning ste up guys, with Rhodes as a LOOGY and Weathers as 7th inning guy. The way the old guys are pitching is unsustainable and the sooner Burton reclaims that role (with good stuff, of course) the better.
At the same time, keep it up old dudes
It's our Knott's Berry Farm solution...
This team is clean.
"I do and the [hu] of some person am me and others the woman it loves."
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes you appreciate Taveras a little more
and for that matter, BP as a 2B. I still remember when he came via trade, started playing, and immediately took the job away from Womack. That was pretty sweet.
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
umm, Womack:Felipe:Clayton:Gonzalez
and womack had a .364 OBP in those few games as a Red. He was really more of a Codreanu than a Hitler.
Ali Boombaye
i feel you brother
i have had this uneasy feeling for the last few weeks that has kept me from fully enjoying all the winning.
i do think it is entirely plausible to be excited though. sure cueto wont be this good for every start this year, but he could be this good for 20 more starts throughout the year. volquez seems to have settled down as much as we can expect. harang will be rock solid, i believe. owings will probably struggle a fair amount, but i can live with that. i feel pretty certain that arroyo will do his usually mid-season about face, if not sooner.
of course the pen is overperforming, but most of them have a strong resume. now, someone’s arm could fall off of course. hopefully some Bats could step up in that event.
the offense will be a balancing act i predict, trying to get people hitting at the same time and not slumping all at once. it does seem like there are legitimate options at Louisville now. also, we havent got anything from EdE yet, thats a question mark. in short, it would take a few things going very right, but i think this offense can be above league average
of course a few injuries could unhinge it all and i wont even try to touch on the defense. there will be downs to counter ups like these. but hey, if anyone wants to root for teams for whom winning wasnt accompanied by the dread of watching the wheels fall off — go be a douchebag and buy a yankees/dodgers/red sox jersey and start spouting arrogant ignorance. me, im not going anywhere and im going to enjoy the ride
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
that last part was very well said
I fell like passing it along to my Red Sock and Yankee friends, but they would probably agree.
We can pull it off.
As long as they keep playing like they have been, I believe they may actually have a shot. They also need to remember that every at bat should NOT be seen as a chance to try for a homerun. It seems that, by the midway point of the past several seasons, we have tended to get a little greedy, and that, in the long run, is why we end up finishing so poorly.
"every at bat should NOT be seen as a chance to try for a homerun"
I feel like you’re talking to Brandon Phillips with this statement.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 14, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Welsh had a good comment last night about that
Something to the effect that the first two swings belong to Brandon, and the others belong to the team. He does seem to hack early in the count. Later in the count he’s much more willing to work with the pitch, poke it to the opposite field or whatever. I know that hitters change their approach with two strikes but the difference is really pronounced with BP.
good post
i think theres room for improvement from some guys, Arroyo’s ERA won’t stay that high. Volquez will probably pitch better overall than he has so far. Owings may prove to be the real deal.
There’s room for Bruce to improve and for votto to hit more homers possibly too.
The big thing is injuries. Reds have been really lucky with injuries. First Edwin goes down, and Rosales comes up and is swinging a hot bat. Then Gonzalez goes, and all of a sudden Hairston gets hot. Even with Votto out, somehow it’s as if the Red didn’t miss him.
All of that has been pretty lucky. Were someone like Volquez or Cordero to go down, the Reds might be in trouble. All playoff runs have a great deal of this injury luck though.
The Reds' hold on first is already starting to slip
Brewers beat the Marlins 5-3. Reds drop to 0.5 game out. Cubs are winning 11-3 in the 9th, so they will likely tie the Reds and Cardinals, at least until St. Louis plays tonight.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
they are halfway through a big test
with three wins already on this west coast trip. as i recall it was an atrocious west coast trip in late august/early september 06 that really started the slide
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
this is a different type of trip though
Neither Arizona or SD are very good teams. I mean, it’s great that they are actually winning the games, but they are not playing the good West Coast teams on the trip.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Didn't they lose to the crappy West coast teams
on that trip, though? I guess I could actually look.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Okay, I actually checked.
They:
won one out of four at SF, which finished 76-85.
lost three at LA, which finished 88-74.
won one out of three at SD, which finished 88-74.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
youre right of course
i guess i just always have a sinking feeling from that year and san diego last year there isnt another big trip out west. LA late in july (Manny should be back) and SF in August
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
but look at it this way
usually those are long west coast trips, but this year we go into LA and SF at separate times, so even if we get swept, it won’t be a disaster.
Immmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Baaaaaaaaaaacccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk!!!!
Hello to all of you who have missed me since I was banned time and time again on this site because panties get wadded up but enough about how slyde and scrabbles keep my picture and name Bobby the Butcher on their computers because they can’t get enough, but now it is time.
Please quit ruining the season for everyone. Enjoy the reds run and the team chemistry that we are finally having. Be greatful for every single day that we look as if we can compete. We finally have a bullpen which we did not in 06 and we have a much faster team. I don’t care if espn never shows us on tv and uses the wrong hat, let them be suckers. One day at a time and I just bet you that we are in competition for a playoff spot come the beginning of September. Quit the whining about 06 dude you sound like a cubs fan.
by BigBobTheButcher on May 14, 2009 5:33 PM EDT reply actions
who is this guy?
it sounds like you probably shouldnt ban him again, it only seems to encourage him. also, your diction sounds like that of a cubs fan
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
by saboscork on May 14, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I read about this crazy thing in an encyclopedia or some place
it’s called a comma.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure how I'm whining about 2006
but whatever.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
hello mate
sorry product of public school. You are not whining, right….you are being too pesimistic like cubs fans. Sorry. Pleae don’t ban me.
by BigBobTheButcher on May 14, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions
Hey Bob
if you’ve nothing better to do how about getting a partial lobotomy or you could just…
Every..all together now….
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
Er that's everyone all together now....say it...
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
I was whining in 06, at my tv and whoever would listen. Oh yeah and at the bull pen.
by BigBobTheButcher on May 14, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks for the advice, I will fucking try and use it.
by BigBobTheButcher on May 14, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Zach's reason for why our offense was better in '06 then '09
Juan Castro and Norris Hopper! Enough said
Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!
There are some tough stretches of games coming up.
Before the ASB there are 3 games vs. STL, 4 games vs. Philly, and 3 games vs. the Mets, all in a row. That may make or break the season if we are still in contention at that point.
I hadn't looked at the schedule, but I knew something like that might be coming
they haven’t played many good teams outside of the Mets and Cubs.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Good point.
So far:
Split W L RS RA WP
ARI 3 0 26 9 1.000
ATL 1 2 13 16 .333
CHC 2 1 12 8 .667
FLA 1 1 9 3 .500
HOU 4 3 17 25 .571
MIL 3 2 25 36 .600
NYM 1 2 16 17 .333
PIT 3 2 19 18 .600
STL 2 1 21 15 .667
The Mets, Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals are all over .500 so far. The Braves and Marlins are sitting at .500. Only the Pirates, Astros, and Diamondbacks are below .500 to this point.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Man, what is a good team or a bad team?
we are only 35 games in.
The more I watch sports it seems like all the teams suck and if any team were just to man the fuck up they could take everything.
Name me a really great MLB team playing right now.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
you're right
it seems like there are always teams early in the MLB season that win unexpectedly and ESPN always makes a deal out of it.
I don’t think anyone has been really great but i think the dodgers and red sox are two teams that have played good and look like they can continue to do so all year
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
I'll give you that, but...
I was arguing that the Reds have played decent teams. The Mets, Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals have all won more than they’ve lost so far, but the Reds have gone 8-6 against them. Add in the two .500 teams, and the Reds are 10-9 against teams with non-losing records. That’s not too shabby.
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
I guess I just meant teams that were expected to be good when the season started
I didn’t mean to dis any team specifically. Just that the Mets and Cubs were the only teams that looked good on paper when the season started that the Reds have played.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I agree
I just think that all teams are decent and none are fantastic and the prospect of playing NYM, PHI and STL sequentially is not at all intimidating IMO.
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of the ASG...
Nobody outside of this blog has heard of Votto, so he’s clearly not going to get voted onto the team. Does he get put on it anyway, or do they go with one of our pitchers? Or does a Red actually get voted on?
Let me write out a formal proof for you.
Red Reporter endorses votes for Votto and Bruce
I think Bruce is the only one that has a shot at getting voted in, but he needs to have a consistently good first half. Votto is blocked by Pujols.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
yeah
fans vote for the starters, managers and players vote for the rest.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
gotta believe at least one starter will be there
cordero too maybe
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
i could see Cordero being the lone rep
leading the league in saves is a big deal. maybe Cueto gets the call too if he keeps his ERA under 3.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
it would be nice to send our closer
i am no fan of sending a starter to the ASG
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Jay Bruce is going to be voted on
we will make it happen.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
i meant a starting pitcher
i am a fan of a position player going
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah i know
i meant to make my statement more clear, but my thoughts got ahead of my typing. i meant to say “i agree on the pitchers, but…”
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I want a position player and two pitchers at the minimum
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
Votto, Cueto, Rhodes/Cordero?
This would be my bet, and hopefully one team would crush the other so Cueto doesn’t pitch.
Ali Boombaye
"Vote-o for Votto"
Someone, somewhere working in marketing for the Reds will eat this shit up.
"I do and the [hu] of some person am me and others the woman it loves."
I plan to going to those Philly and Mets games
at least a few of them. Hopefully they’ll go better than that time when I went to Bailey vs. Hamels last year.
Ali Boombaye
did we already talk about this?
i plan on going to sat and sun mets games. philly, can’t because they’re during the week.
I'm planning on going to those two as well
we should try and get a group together, although it could be tough getting a bunch of tix together at Citi field. They’ve been selling pretty good
Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?
Yeah, good thing they built a stadium in NYC with a capcity of 45,000
I’m sure it makes the most immediate economic sense. But it is annoying as a fan in these kinds of situations, and I wonder if it does long-run damage by turning away fans who aren’t going to get a season ticket package.
why didn’t we sacrafice against the cardnials when we had no outs and runners on first and second with no outs in the bottom of the tenth inning. Jerry Harriston Jr tried to bunt the first pitch….then what? Then he struck out swinging We should have won that game.
by BigBobTheButcher on May 14, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions
MOAR BUNTING!
tellin' tales of drunkenness and cruelty
by Colin Auscapee on May 14, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I dont get it
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on May 14, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
where can i buy those shoes?
and that sweater while im at it
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand
Hey guys enjoy this team while we can
an injury here, a ‘back to earht’ there – who knows?
Nothing to lose by enjoying this winning streak..hell nobody though this team would win anything either
Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way
Like I said in another thread
I’m enjoying the games. I’m just not sold on the team yet.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I'm still holding out hope. Probably because I lived in Indianapolis in 2006
By the way, did you guys even GO to Terry’s tonight?
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
We were there.
Where the hell were you? And, reportedly an eyewitness report is coming in the near future, and it’s gonna be a doozy.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on May 14, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Told you guys I would be at work until 8
“Oh we’ll be there.”
Bah, I say. BAH.
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
by SullivanSmith on May 14, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry dude
Give me a half hour and you’ll be crushed by what you missed.
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....
pics and all
who knew Jim O’Toole would saddle up next to BK? and his daughter graduated from OU?
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
Stupid retail job
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
by SullivanSmith on May 15, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
the Dodgers are bringing up Eric Milton to start on Saturday
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 10:29 PM EDT reply actions
ERIC MILTON IS TOP NOTCH
Needless to say, this didn't work and everybody died.
by SullivanSmith on May 15, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
or jeff weaver
according to dodgers.com
Bloop
by justin007000 on May 15, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
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