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Reds on the Basepaths - Not the HAVOC that We Expected

After all of the talk of aggressive base running during the Spring, I think we are all a bit surprised to see that the Reds are only 8th in NL in stolen base attempts.  I know I expected to see them run a lot more once they got on base, especially Willy Taveras.  Surprisingly though, the Reds have remained fairly even-keeled with their approach to base stealing.  I only recall one or two situations where the stolen base attempt was completely inappropriate.  Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your perspective) the Reds have literally sacrificed the running game for another strategy.  They lead the NL in sacrifice hits with 26, including an incredible 15 by non-pitchers.

The fact that the Reds haven't been stealing bases doesn't mean that they aren't being aggressive though.  In fact, it's quite the opposite.  The Reds have been the most aggressive team in the league when it comes to trying to take extra bases on hits.  And while they've been the second best team in the NL at getting those extra bases, it has come at a cost:

Redsadvancing20080511_medium

 

Star-divide

The Reds are doing an excellent job of moving from first to third on a single and scoring from 2nd base on a single, which has put them behind only Colorado when it comes to taking that extra base on a hit.  However, only the Brewers have made more outs trying to get that extra base, though they've done it many fewer attempts.  The Reds are running the bases hard, but they may not be running them as smart as they should be.  In fact, their 31 total outs made on the bases is the most in the NL, not a good sign for a team that is basically average at getting runners on base in the first place.

Individually, the best base runners on the team have been Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Taveras, who are all taking extra bases about 60% of the time they get the chance.  All three have also aggressively taken bases on flyballs and battery mistakes, with Votto's 5 advances good enough for 15th in the NL.  The worst base runner so far has been Brandon Phillips, who has taken an extra base just 40% time while making a team leading 6 outs on the base paths.  He made a couple of nice plays on the bases last night, but he still needs to step up his game a bit.

Honestly, I don't mind the Reds being aggressive on the bases up to a point, but I'd definitely like to see them be smarter about it.  They can't afford to give up those outs so easily and I especially hate to see already existing base runners erased.  In a surprising twist, though, I wouldn't mind seeing more stolen base attempts from the Reds, but only in lieu of all the bunt attempts, especially with Taveras on base.  Let the guy run, and let's stop wasting outs at the plate.  Sure, he'll fail at stealing occasionally, but a bunter almost always makes an out.  No reason to give them up that easily.

Comment 39 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Very interesting

Looks like Dusty is doing a commendable job containing himself and his players.

The 31 “outs made on the bases” seems high, but I have no frame of reference. Any idea what the typical/yearly average is?

Do you have a breakdown? I assume the bulk is caught stealing, picked off, doubled off on fly/line out, but I’m having trouble coming up with 31. Thanks.

by bengalred on May 12, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions  

The breakdown

  9 Caught Stealing
  4 Pick Offs
  6 Outs taking an extra base (for a non-batter)
12 other outs (including batters trying to take an extra base or runners being doubled up on a line drive or fly ball)

The NL average for outs on the bases right now is 23. Last season the NL average was exactly 100 outs on the bases with the Reds making 119 outs.

The big difference compared to last year’s team is that the Reds only took an extra base 36% of the time last season (last in the NL), while they have done it 49% of the time this year.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on May 12, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds as if Chris Sabo

is the base running coach.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 12, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

9 CS and 4 Pickoffs?

Are we sure Farney’s really in Baltimore?

by Highlifeman21 on May 12, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting.

Looking at it in a learning curve perspective.

I would think that aggressive base running is a first step. Stolen bases are great if the hitter has enough experience to know how to protect the runner. For example swinging at a ball in order to foul it of so the base runner doesn’t get caught stealing? or letting the runner steal even with a strike.

I would think the final stages are things like squeeze and hit and runs. Which would also depend on how much each player is good at the basics (going the other way etc recognising pitches).

by Outside Observer on May 12, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions  

The bunting drives me crazy

If I lived anywhere the Stadium, there are times I would have tried to wait in the parking lot for Dusty. Quit giving away outs, you jackass

by timb116 on May 12, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions  

This comment is right on the money-

With Taveras on base, let the guy run, and let’s stop wasting outs at the plate. Sure, he’ll fail at stealing occasionally, but a bunter almost always makes an out. No reason to give them up that easily.

The bunter who isn’t always an automatic out is Wily…

Pretty exiting year so far with more patience at the plate and intelligent aggressiveness on the base paths. Did some one give Mark Berrry a valium?

Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way

by Madville on May 12, 2009 2:56 PM EDT reply actions  

we are winning

i have no complaints

Soy el niño destructor. I eat kids for breakfast. Roar. - Juan Francisco 'spoken with an Italian accent'

by jacob brumfield on May 12, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Slyde, HAVOC is never what you expect.

That’s what makes it HAVOC.

"Nobody's going to die just because they can't find their little yellow basket."

by Fat Vegas Alan on May 12, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition either

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on May 12, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Nope

I was hoping for a revival of Huldrych Zwingli. and the Anabaptists

Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way

by Madville on May 12, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

rec'd for the obscurity of the history joke

and the fact that I had to learn the basics of it almost 20 years ago.

by timb116 on May 12, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

read Q, that book fucking rocks

made the anabaptists, the Munster rebellion, and all that stuff read like a Le Carre spy novel.

Ali Boombaye

by Cy Schourek on May 12, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have the comfy chair.

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on May 12, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Inquisition

What a show
The Inquisition
Here we go….

Cuz the Inquisition’s here, and it’s here to stay!

by Highlifeman21 on May 12, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he wins the award...

For Best Eyebrows on the team also.

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on May 12, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Best Eyebrow

FTFY

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on May 13, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Very nice analysis Slyde.

What is the ratio of number of extra outs per succesful base taken?

Is that higher than the MLB average?

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on May 12, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

The Reds make an out in 10% of the extra base attempts

compared to 4% for the league (that’s what the graphs shows). The Brewers are the highest in the NL at 17%.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on May 12, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah. Got it.

I think the mental block for me was that lining or flying into a DP didn’t seem like an extra base attempt, but it makes sense, since that is just like a caught stealing or pickoff.

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on May 12, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lining into a DP is not part of that 10%

The Reds have made 6 outs trying to advance on 63 extra bases – so technically it was 9.5%, but that’s where the 10% comes from.

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on May 12, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm.

When I think of the effects HAVOC has, I would think of this:

X = successful steals + extra bases successfully taken + successful advances on a ground ball/fly ball
Y = “Hustle Outs” = caught stealing + pickoffs + line/fly into DP + thrown out advancing on a ground ball/fly ball

It would seem that if you have a low ratio of X : Y, you’re not being efficient in creating HAVOC (for the other team, not yours).

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on May 12, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oops.

Y = caught stealing + pickoffs + line/fly into DP + thrown out advancing on a ground ball/fly ball + thrown out taking extra base

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on May 12, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of the Brewers,

they signed Frank Catalanotto today.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on May 12, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't believe

that dude still didn’t have a job, and that the Reds didn’t go for him.

I’ll take Nix, though. So far, he seems like a good addition. Even if he stops hitting a little bit, his defense is really good.

Isn't there a slanket somewhere you should be filling with your farts?

by nycredsfan on May 12, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Brewers are always the 'Highest'


BREWED AND AVAILABLE IN MILWAUKEE

Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way

by Madville on May 12, 2009 4:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Very nice, Mr. Slyde!

Just another example of what makes RR a cut above the rest!

I thought I was deluding myself, but throughout Spring Training I was praying that Dusty was just letting them all test their legs and get a feel for the SB— that they weren’t really going to be THAT reckless.

Sacrifices? I’ve become so accustomed to the clutch strikeout that now I welcome the bunts. See what pessimism and cynicism do to you over time?

"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"

by "Red" Moskau on May 12, 2009 6:30 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

rec'd

I have never read a comment about bunts that rang so true in my heart. touch me.

Soy el niño destructor. I eat kids for breakfast. Roar. - Juan Francisco 'spoken with an Italian accent'

by jacob brumfield on May 12, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

samantha fox'd

"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"

by "Red" Moskau on May 18, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

this is why i think hopper should be up here

because dusty’s gonna bunt anyway, so we might as well have someone who can do it and actually get on base some times.

by Daedalus on May 12, 2009 7:27 PM EDT reply actions  

If the option is

Hopper vs I’m Lovin’ It, then maybe.

But Hopper and his bunting fetish and overall limited skill set doesn’t improve this ballclub, especially at the end of the bench/roster.

J. Gomes, however, that’s a completely different story.

by Highlifeman21 on May 12, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

heer Heer

Never Try and Never, ever Care - That’s the Madville Way

by Madville on May 13, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow, never thought of it that way

all of those balls Hopper rolls between the pitcher and first baseman could come in handy.
 
Of course we would have to change Hopper’s name to Isaac.

Soy el niño destructor. I eat kids for breakfast. Roar. - Juan Francisco 'spoken with an Italian accent'

by jacob brumfield on May 13, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

old testament'd

what else do we expect from a man named “jacob”?

"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"

by "Red" Moskau on May 18, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

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