18 game Capsule

UPDATE from Slyde: I haven't been around at all today because I am being physically abused by my job right now.  Thanks to riverfront76 for giving us a little something to chew on.

I’m an infrequent poster, so here’s a brief introduction: long time Reds fan, no longer living in Ohio, and next to no access to watching live Reds games (I listen to 30%-40% of the games).

One of my annual frustrations is not being able to truly follow this team on a day-by-day basis (OK—so this might actually be a blessing), and I tend to lose perspective of who’s doing well and who’s not, since so much of my perceptions are biased towards what happens early on in the year.  So, I’m going to try something new this year: sub-season team capsules, posted every 18 games.  I recognize the fallacies included in selective end-point comparisons like this, but I thought it might be good to take a broader view every so often.

Feel free to make suggestions or to insult my lineage, etc.

2009 Reds, Capsule 1

Overview:

Wins/Losses: 10 - 8

Strength of Schedule: .491 (8th most difficult in NL; 16th most difficult in ML)

RPI (ESPN): .507 (6th best in NL; 11th best in ML)

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats, YTD): 8.6%

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds (based on team stats + PECOTA projections): 21.7%

Offense:

• .233/.317/.367 (AVG/OBP/SLG) for the team, compares to NL average of .260/.340/.416
• The shortcomings of the batting average is obvious, but this team has had sub-standard power, falling below league averages in doubles, triples, and home runs.
• For all the talk of HAVOC, the team has tried to steal on 7.9% of "opportunities" (defined as singles plus walks), compared to a league average of 7.8%
• There have been some players with notably inflated walk rates (e.g. Encarnacion and Phillips), but the team walk rate of 9.6% is just below the league average of 10.0%
• The batting average on balls-in-play (BABIP) has been less than league average (Reds: .287; NL: .303), and the expected runs-per-game is 3.63, compared to the actual R/G rate of 3.94.  So what's going on?  The team OPS jumps to .801 when there are runners on base (.604 OPS when the bases are empty).
• Votto and Bruce have been carrying the offense (46% of team RBI, 57% of team HR).  Duh.
• A team full of Alex Gonzalez's would score 0.7 runs per game.
• That said, Phillips, Gonzalez, and Encarnacion all have BABIP's of less than .200.  Their numbers will improve, while Votto's will decline (BABIP = .469).
• Phillips in particular is due for a massive numbers adjustment (low BABIP, high walk rate, more walks than strikeouts).
• If the plate appearance totals for Hernandez, Gonzalez and Dickerson were swapped with the PA of Hanigan, Janish, and McDonald, and performances remained constant, the Reds would have been expected to score 8 more runs, which: maybe another win.  Too soon to throw too much blame on Dusty for playing time issues, at this point, IMO.  Except for Gonzalez, maybe.

Pitching:

• The pitching's been a bit lucky: lower than average BABIP, higher than average strand rate.  Still, as a staff, they're only about 3 runs below expected, based on the peripherals.
• That said, I'm not sure the peripherals bode all that well: worse than average walk rate (Reds: 4.6 BB/9, NL: 3.9), and worse than average K rate (Reds: 6.6 K/9; NL: 7.1).  That last one surprises me, especially given Voltron, and the rejuvenated David Weathers (6 K in 6.1 IP).
• Mike Lincoln: not suitable for viewing (7.1 IP, 9 BB, 1 K, 11 H, 2 HBP).  I think Homer Bailey could do at least this well.
• Harang, Cueto, Weathers, Rhodes.  Dude.
• The walks are going to catch up to CoCo and Owings, who post deceivingly low ERA's to this point. 
• Burton's a good bet to see his numbers improve (.364 BABIP), while Nick Masset and David Weathers are living on borrowed time (.143 / .188 BABIP, respectively).
• The Defense!!!!  A Defense Effeciency Rate of .703 (6th best NL; 10th best ML).  It's not world-beater, but it's better than being 30th overall.

The next 18:

• 8 games at home, 10 on the road
• Includes a 13 day stretch of consecutive games
• 11 of the 18 against divisional opponents
• 2 of the 18 against 2008 playoff teams
• .521 average winning percentage (2009) for the teams in the next 18 games.
• The offense has been bad, but maybe a bit unlucky.  The pitching has been average, or a bit better than.
• I'm looking at the 5-game homestand against Milwaukee and St Louis as key.  They win 3 of those 5, and I could see the Reds having a winning record in this next stretch.  But it's not hard to imagine losing 4 of the 5, and then heading out west...
• Let's make it two in a row against Oswalt!