Taking a closer look at Volquez

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2009 2:38 PM EDT in Features Comment 31 comments

We've seen a lot more of the sad Edinson Volquez so far this year than we expected to see for the entire season.

It doesn't take a genius to see that Edinson Volquez has not been the pitcher so far this year that he was last season when he went to the All Star game. Somehow last night he managed to survive long enough to get the win despite the fact that he allowed 11 base runners in 5 innings, including 4 walks and 2 home runs. Sometimes the key is just offensive help and a manager determined to get you through 5 innings, I guess.

The biggest problem for Volquez so far this year has been an inability to hit the strike zone. As you can see in the tables below, Volquez is missing the strike zone on considerably more of his pitches compared to last year and this is having damaging consequences:

2009
Type	Speed	Pitches	Swings	Contact	InZone	IZ %	SLG	Contact%	Distribution
Change Up	81.0	47	21	14	14	29.8%	.700	66.7%	23.0%
Curveball	78.9	19	4	2	5	26.3%	1.000	50.0%	9.3%
Four-Seam	93.7	130	46	40	57	43.8%	.789	87.0%	63.7%
Slider	80.5	8	0	0	2	25.0%	.000	0.0%	3.9%

2008
Type	Speed	Pitches	Swings	Contact	InZone	IZ %	SLG	Contact%	Distribution
Change Up	82.7	797	662	255	382	47.9%	.466	38.5%	24.0%
Curveball	77.7	291	194	36	125	43.0%	.350	18.6%	8.8%
Four-Seam	93.6	1751	1402	611	930	53.1%	.481	43.6%	52.7%
Slider	82.5	486	397	128	209	43.0%	.531	32.2%	14.6%

His inability to hit the strike zone is allowing hitters to be a lot more patient. Hitters are swinging a lot less at his pitches so far, probably because he's not consistently close enough to the zone to convince them to swing. He's getting himself into less advantageous counts and he's walking hitters at a 5% higher rate than last year. He's also putting himself in a position where he has to throw a strike, which takes away his slider and basically makes him a 2-pitch pitcher. As you can see, hitters have been right on both his fastball and change up, making a lot more contact when they swing.

Maybe the biggest problem for Volquez is that the league is figuring him out and he hasn't adjusted yet. It's possible that he is tipping his pitches based on the fact that his release point on his change up is about 6 inches below where he typically releases his fastball. If hitters are able to narrow it down to two pitches - since he's gotten himself into a count where he needs to throw a strike - then it sure would make a difference if you know what to look for in the pitchers motion to know if a fastball or a change up is coming.

I think the number one thing Volquez needs to work on is getting closer to the strike zone. He's not going to be successful if the hitters can just wait until he has to throw a strike. Getting himself into more favorable counts will allow him to use his slider more frequently, making him that much harder to guess on. His slider isn't a great pitch, but having it in his repertoire allows him to use his fastball and change up much more effectively.

After that, it's probably wise to keep working on the change up and make sure it is coming out of the same spot as the fastball as much as possible. I honestly think taking care of the first problem will make this less necessary, but in order to help on days when he doesn't have great stuff, it would help if he was less predictable as well. I don't know if this is something he can fix during the season, but if he doesn't it could end up being a long year for the young right-hander.

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i'm not real worried about Volquez

like I mean i am worried about him the next time he takes the hill, but his velocity is still there so he isn’t hurt. I am guessing he will find his command.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Apr 14, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

it is still too early to worry, also. If he keeps this up for a month, I’ll worry. But, right now I think it is just something he will work through.

by fourrunhomer on Apr 14, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, justin, but that's exactly why Texas was willing to trade him

He couldn’t throw strikes. I hope I’m wrong (after all I remember Jack Armstrong), but in the career of Edinson Volquez the aberration is the first half of last year.

by timb116 on Apr 14, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think you are wrong

take a look at his minor league numbers. while his numbers from the first half of last year are pretty far beyond the norm, he’s always been a top performer. he’s walked a ton of batters, but he’s struck out a ton of guys too. it’s just the kind of pitcher he is.

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 14, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it just doesn't make sense

this spring he had no problems then suddenly the season starts and he can’t find the strikezone. maybe he’s just nervous or something.

Blessed be baseball!

by Daedalus on Apr 14, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The weather, possibly?

It’s a lot warmer in Florida.

NOTE: I’m referring to the weather in general. I know last night’s game was played in a “dome”, but it was snowing outside.

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Apr 14, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IIRC his last ST start was as bad as his first two regular season starts.

"What wrath, Daddy?"

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TO THE INTERNET!

Oh, right.

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Apr 14, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did see the box score for that start.

On Yahoo maybe?

"What wrath, Daddy?"

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Found it

From here:

Edinson Volquez wasn’t particularly sharp in his final tuneup of the spring, allowing three runs — two earned — on five hits and three walks while striking out four.

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Apr 14, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He had control issues toward the end of spring (11 walks and 19 hits in his last 16.2 innings)

Spring Starts via Reds Internal Affairs

DATE         OPP   DEC.  IP  H  R  ER BB SO
Thu       vs Pit    –   3.2  5  3  2   3  4
3/28       at TB    W   5.0  4  1  1   4  3
3/23      vs Tor    W   5.0  4  –  –   2  5
3/18       at TB        3.0  6  –  –   2  2
3/13      at Min    –   3.0  1  –  –   –  2
3/7 (DR vs Neth)    L   3.0  2  3  –   2  3
3/3  (DR at Fla)    –   2.0  1  1  1   –  2
2/25      at TB     –   3.0  2  –  –   1  3

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn you, beaten by one minute

And you wonder why I’m lazy and don’t look stuff up. :)

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Apr 14, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeesh

The 4-seamer numbers are frightening. Wonder if getting used to Hernandez is throwing him off. Would it hurt to try and have Hanigan catch him, particularly since Hernandez seems to be batting with a toothpick?

by teb7 on Apr 14, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Hernandez

Will Hannigan get the start tonight since Arroyo is pitching? I think it would be a good night to give Janish a start also. This may be a good night to see what Dickerson can do against a lefty.

by fourrunhomer on Apr 14, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are they facing Manny Parra?

"What wrath, Daddy?"

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

by fourrunhomer on Apr 14, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go Reds!

MIL: LHP Manny Parra (0-1, 10.38 ERA)
Parra looked superb through the first three innings of his first start of the season, and he looked just as dreadful the rest of the way of what turned out to be an ominous performance. He gave up all five of his runs in his final 1 1/3 innings and allowed seven of the final 10 hitters he faced to reach base. The Brewers have lost the last nine games, dating to last year, in which he’s appeared, and Parra lost for the seventh time in his past eight decisions. If past numbers are any indication, he could be in for another tough day against the Reds, who scored 16 runs on 17 hits in 16 1/3 innings against him. There’s some good news, though: Parra is a much better pitcher at home.

"What wrath, Daddy?"

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hanigan and Janish are starting

Hairston starts in LF

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I kept looking

for the lineup. Usually get it on Sheldon’s or Fay’s blog first. i wondered how you got it before they had it posted, then I remembered that fay is a Twit. I found it there.
What happens if Hannigan and Janish each get three hits tonight? Do Agon and Hernandez automatically get put back in the lineup tomorrow? I believe they will both find their strokes. But, if someone else produces in the meantime, don’t you have to go with who’s hot? Or, do you show respect to the veterans?

by fourrunhomer on Apr 14, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't believe you're even asking that question

Think of who you’re dealing with.

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Apr 14, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"My veterans get their at-bats and my young pitchers get their wins."

"What wrath, Daddy?"

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FSN apology

Sheldon posted it on his blog. Didn’t do much for me.

by fourrunhomer on Apr 14, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I love how FSN apologizes while at the same time trying to deny responsibility

“The newtork experienced a very unfortunate switching error….” as if it wasn’t completely their fault.

How about “The network made a very unfortunate switching error..”

The lack of corporate accountability in this country continues to amaze me

by bengalred on Apr 14, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zactly.

The fans experienced it. The network done did it.

"What wrath, Daddy?"

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've had this abstract idea for a while

that the individual is accountable to every institution, while the inverse is never true.

"I usually shoot it pretty straight."- a boating enthusiast

by Colin Auscapee on Apr 14, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

rec'd Colin

by timb116 on Apr 14, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe it was the noted scholar Dave Mustaine who once said

Don’t ask what you can do for your country. Ask what your country can do for you.

by bengalred on Apr 14, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Get it I the Z, Edinson.

"What wrath, Daddy?"

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was hoping you would have a post like this today

I’m too busy (lazy) to dig deeper, but it seems like Volquez is not getting the same movement on his changeup through his first 2 starts. But I agree with the majority here, it’s too early to start freaking out.

by D-Rock on Apr 14, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dick Pole is obviously a fan of the site

"The league has figured him out a little bit," pitching said Dick Pole said. "He’s got make adjustment back. They’re taking a lot of pitches off him early in the count. They’re waiting him out a little bit." (via Fay)

"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2009 7:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs