Reds take advantage of few opportunities, win first road game
by Slyde on Apr 13, 2009 11:50 PM EDT
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PrintThe Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game
Edwin Encarnacion - 1 for 4, BB, HR, 4 RBI
It's hard to say who deserves this because everybody did something little, but Encarnacion's grand slam in the 3rd was awesome!
Key Plays
- The Brewers put one run on the board in the bottom of the first, but Jay Bruce tied it right back up in the top of the second with his first home run of the season.
- Edinson Volquez looked out of sorts in the bottom of the 2nd. After a single, a walk, and a single scored a run, it looked like he might get out of the inning by getting two straight outs. But then he inexplicably had the most obvious balk in the history of organized baseball and followed that up by serving up a 3-run home run to Corey Hart.
- After two quick outs in the third, the Reds put together an impressive rally. Yovani Gallardo walked Willy Taveras and Chris Dickerson. Joey Votto singled in a run and then Gallardo walked Brandon Phillips to load the bases. After Bruce was hit by a pitch to drive in a run, Encarnacion unloaded on the first pitch he saw and put the Reds up 7-5 with his first home run of the season.
- A JJ Hardy home run in the 5th made it a one-run game at 7-6.
- Francisco Cordero closed it out in the 9th for his 2nd save of the season.
Other Notes
- Edinson Volquez looked shaky for the second time this season. He struggled to get through 5 innings and probably should have been removed earlier. But, he got the win, so I guess that means he just knows how to win, right? I'm mildly concerned about his performance to this point. I'm not ready to panic with him, but he has been wilder this year than he ever was last season. And I have no data to back this up at this point, but I think Chris Welsh made a good point during the game that perhaps he is relying too much on his change to get outs and it's getting predictable. I'll try to look into it more in the morning.
- The Brewers can't feel good about this game. They left 12 runners on base and in a one run game, that's gotta hurt.
- The offense only managed 6 hits for the Reds, but it was enough to get the job done. Unlike the Brewers, the Reds only left 4 runners on base. They did draw 5 walks in the game, so I'm not going to complain, but I sure would like to see some more hits coming out of the bats.
- Fox Sports cut the feed in the 9th inning with the Brewers at bat. Terrible.
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first
Its probably going to happen - bend over
by Madville on Apr 13, 2009 11:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Madville gets a rec for post first in a post game thread?
I must have missed something when my internet SNAFU’d last night.
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought these after game threads counted for firstings too
Its probably going to happen - bend over
weirdness
It’s not even a game thread. Maybe someone just admired the sheer randomness of it.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
You know what I'd like to know?
I’d like to know what the hell was up with that balk, that’s what I’d like to know.
The announcers hypothesized that maybe he thought time was called...
which seemed to be the only possible explanation. But why he would have thought that is unclear.
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
Uhh, wilder this year than he ever was last season?
Need I remind you of this, the only Reds game I saw last year?
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
Time for Edwin to bat cleanup
Not BP
Voltron – poor showing
Gonzo – worse than Wagon
Hernandez – should be glad he’s not in AA
Nix – lucky
Bruce lucier
taveris – shoulda caught that one
C-Dick great ABs
BP – another good nite
Vottomatic – automatic
EdE – killer
Dusty needs to go away for a long long vacation
Burton – lookin good
Art Rhodes – only allowed to face 3 batters per game
Weathers – amazingly Stormy
CoCo – back to the All Star game
Its probably going to happen - bend over
If I made the lineup...
it would be Taveras/EdE/Votto/Bruce/BP. But nobody’s asking me…
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
Agreed about FSN Ohio
I was watching the game and I was like what the heck. Come on FSN get with the program. I have been quite annoyed with the feed so far this season.
Yeah the Reds are back to .500 . This makes me happy even though the win was not really that impressive. Just when I start hating EE he goes and does this.. sigh… Wish he would be more consistent. I do have to say I like his patience at the plate so far this year.though. Now if only he could stop making circus errors in the field.
Jason King
Why are you hating him this year?
He doesn’t have any errors yet, and he hasn’t been making a fool of himself at the plate either.
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
I thought
I thought he had an error already. humm… ok well I did say he was doing well at the plate so far.
Jason King
He did have a ton in ST, if I recall correctly...
it’s only a matter of time before he makes an error.
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
To be fair, it's only a matter of time before 99% of the players
make an error. Just sayin’.
"Screw it. We've got bigger problems than a butter shortage."
Right.
But it is dumb to base an argument on whether someone has 0 errors or 1 error in a small sample size.
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
And so I was noting that my argument was
pretty stupid.
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
actually its only a matter of time till 100%
of all non UC grads make an error. Yooooouuuk
Dusty Baker said it was the first [triple play] he’d seen in person. When he was with the Dodgers, they hit into one, but he was in the bathroom.- C Trent
by The Crushinator on Apr 14, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't think anyone actually graduated from UC
huggins’d
"I can eat mayonnaise with a spoon." - Jeff Brantley
by BK on Apr 14, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Holy crap
Just saw the replay of EdE’s bomb. Can’t wait to look that one up on Hit Tracker tomorrow.
Hopefully Bruce broke his duck tonight with that homer. I’m worried about Volq too—that Slyde chart showing his changeup slot was frightening. Paging Mario Soto.
that graph was last season though
so I’m not sure the slotting is the problem, unless teams have started to notice it.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Gotcha
Still, as we all know, his last 2 months were nothing to shout about. I’d say it’s time for Dick Pole to stand up and do something, i.e. find out if this is mechanical.
"broke his duck"
i’d never heard that before, but ive said it aloud to myself twice this morning. just fer no particular reason other than to hear myself say it.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 14, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you need a friend?
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
lonely day at work this morning
just me and my bobbleheads
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 14, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
SNAP INTO IT !!!
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
i dont know what crackpot figured that that outfit screamed "macho"
"I never should have given up the animation rights."
I bet listening to Fall Out Boy at the gym also gets him PUUUUUMPED!
"I can eat mayonnaise with a spoon." - Jeff Brantley
It's British
Soccer announcers use it a lot when a striker scores after a long drought or when a team breaks a losing streak. It’s just more fun to say than breaking out of a slump. For the fellow nerds, here’s the explanation.
Looks like someone needs to redo
this.
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
i guess that kinda makes us ice cube
"I never should have given up the animation rights."
by BobbyO on Apr 14, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Are we the Niggaz With Attitude Ice Cube?
Or the family road trip comedy Ice Cube?
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
We're the one that involves your favorite
by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
That looks like fun.
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
As long as Dusty keeps Harang away from the pitchers mound
or if he sends him out there, give him a few extra days off.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Apr 14, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Game Graphs
Excuse me if this question has been asked a million times, but what the hell are those game graphs supposed to represent? I went over to the fangraphs website and I couldn’t find any explanation after a cursory search. Anybody care to explain it or provide a link?
by Chris Welsh's Missing Moustache on Apr 14, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions
It's win probability for each team.
So at the beginning of every game, each team has a 50% chance of winning the game (mathematically, at least). As the game continues, the situations changes. For instance, when Milwaukee scored in the bottom of the first, generally, teams that are leading by one run in the first inning are somewhat more likely to win the game. The bigger your lead, or the later in the game it is, it’s more likely you’ll win. The graph just shows how that’s changing throughout the game. By the end of the game, one team has a 100% win probability (obviously) because they’ve won.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
yep
The basic explanation is that it is a graphical representation of the ebb and flow of a baseball game. As you can see above, the Brewers were looking pretty good going into the top of the 3rd inning with a 4-run lead. Historically, teams in that situation win about 85% of the games they play. However, after Edwin’s grand slam, the Reds had shifted the game such that 70% of the time a team in their position wins the game. Despite never retaking the lead, the Brewers did shift the odds of winning in their favor in the 4th inning when they loaded the bases as historically, when the home team has the bases loaded with no outs and trailing by 2 runs in the 4th inning, they’ve won the game 52% of the time.
So, the long and the short of it is that these graphs compare the current game state to the final outcome of all games with a similar game state and determine based on that information, which team is most likely to win. We’re just using it as a way to say, hey, look how much momentum shifted back and forth during this game – or in Sunday’s case, look how much Harang dominated the Pirates.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
I get the top panel...
but what does the bottom panel represent?
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
Oh yeah
I meant to explain that too. As ‘nukkah said, "it’s the points of highest leverage in the game." A basic definition of that is something along the lines of the difference in win expectancy between a home run and an out. So, for instance, that last red bar is about as high of leverage as you can get since a home run would have won it while an out ended the game. You’ll notice several spots in the chart above where the slope move upwards over several bars, those are the places where the bases were getting loaded up. As you can see, EdE’s grand slam had a dramatic shift in win expectancy because it was a higher leverage situation.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
And am I correct to assume that "the final outcome of all games"..
..means all of recent MLB history and even though the 2009 Reds might be less likely to overcome an early four-run defecit than a team with a more powerful lineup, it’s not reflected in the graph?
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
correct
though I think there are some mathematical shenanigans going on to adjust for the run expectancy in a game (based on league and parks), there is nothing built into this to account for team quality.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
FWIW
We’re 3-3 despite being last in the NL in:
*BA
*hits
*doubles
*PAs
*ABs
*SLG
*total bases
Yes, we’ve played a game or two fewer than almost every other team and yes, a lot of these statistics are built into and on top of each other and yes, we are dealing with (as Chirs Welsh likes to say) “a small sample size,” but I’m seeing problems beyond Edinson’s recent suckitude.
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions
yeah
7 runs from 11 base runners is probably not a sustainable model of offense.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Slyde, HAVOC is like an onion.
There are layers upon layers of opportunities.
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't it seem about time for Janish to get a start?
Or does Knee Bass have to get a hit first before he can be benched?
(Repeat above, only using “Hanigan” and “Hernandez.”)
by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Has Hanigan had a start yet?
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
both Janish and Hanigan started the day game on Thursday.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
That's what happens when lots of Red Reporters go to GABP.
Hanigan had a hit, a walk and run.
And he called a game that gave his pitching staff a win, four holds and a save!
He just knows how.
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
we weren't at that game
we got to see them lose on Wednesday.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Ah, yes. Thursday's was the day game that I had planned to go to.
Could it be that Hanigan is going to catch Bronson’s starts?
Does anyone know who caught his simulated game last week? Would they have just used a bullpen catcher/coach?
"What wrath, Daddy?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought that Dusty
is planning on only batting Hanigan against lefties.
Except Santana. And Maholm. Those guys are “tough lefties.”
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
dude
he played 9 innings. What else do you want from him?
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Does he get ribbons or trophies
for participation?
We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.
I think he got an atta boy
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." - Dusty being Dusty
Is getting an "atta boy" more like getting an amanuensis or a catamite?
Will you stop it with the vegetables
by Man Mountain on Apr 14, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Game Two
Time to head to the nosebleed seats for Game Two.
Game One was a treat from the bleachers. The Brewers fans were still so preoccupied with 1.) The Cubs and yelling at a Cubs fan who was at the game, 2.) Throwing peanuts at each other, and 3.) Trying to sneak into other sections only to return swearing about the “$&%@$# Nazi ushers” and 4.) Going up to the bathroom/bar/glory hole that they hardly noticed that the only thing more inept than the team the Reds put on the field was the team the Brewers put on the field.
Yeah, keep taunting Jay Bruce. The 2 strikeouts were kind of bad… but he did go 1-3, scoring 2 runs, which is 1 hit and 2 runs more than Craig Counsell, who decided a weakly hit ball to first was the best use of his time.
Maybe I’m just elitist, but damn I hate the bleachers sometimes.
both lefthanded and Caucasian?
with odd batting stanch waggles?!?
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
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