FanPost

Understanding HAVOC

I was thinking about speed in relation to some of the stuff I've seen about the value of a single, double, triple and HR in terms of runs created.  I noticed things like HRs equal 1.4 runs and other hits have depreciating values attached to them. (I don't remember where I saw it otherwise I would put them up, but I’m sure you know what I’m talking about.) If I recall correctly a single had X more value than a walk, likely because singles create X more total bases than a walk would. I assume this is statistic is based upon many many observations over many seasons, but with a HAVOC filed lineup like the Reds, wouldn't a single be worth more with a runner like T-virus on base than a person with league average speed, as T-virus would be more likely to create more total bases off of a single than a league average runner would? If this were true then couldn’t you augment the value of a single, double and triple to account for the higher likelihood of scoring a runner with good speed? I wonder what level of speed T-virus and BP would have to have to create an equal amount of runs to hitters with a higher on base percentage and league average speed.  I’m really grasping at straws to try to create a scenario where HAVOC might be a good thing, otherwise I might kill myself this season.

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