Understanding HAVOC

by The Crushinator on Mar 9, 2009 7:32 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

I was thinking about speed in relation to some of the stuff I've seen about the value of a single, double, triple and HR in terms of runs created. I noticed things like HRs equal 1.4 runs and other hits have depreciating values attached to them. (I don't remember where I saw it otherwise I would put them up, but I’m sure you know what I’m talking about.) If I recall correctly a single had X more value than a walk, likely because singles create X more total bases than a walk would. I assume this is statistic is based upon many many observations over many seasons, but with a HAVOC filed lineup like the Reds, wouldn't a single be worth more with a runner like T-virus on base than a person with league average speed, as T-virus would be more likely to create more total bases off of a single than a league average runner would? If this were true then couldn’t you augment the value of a single, double and triple to account for the higher likelihood of scoring a runner with good speed? I wonder what level of speed T-virus and BP would have to have to create an equal amount of runs to hitters with a higher on base percentage and league average speed. I’m really grasping at straws to try to create a scenario where HAVOC might be a good thing, otherwise I might kill myself this season.

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Speaking of Havoc

Freel was 2 for 2 in the Mets-Orioles game today.

Got a RBI off…Duaner Sanchez. Broke Sanchez’s fingernail or something. (Suck it, Duaner!)

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 9, 2009 7:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well Crush, can i call you Crush....

1st ol’ Wily gots to get on the base…
Now if decides learn to bunt as good as Noho….
and Walk Like a Man

Or lead the league in singles…well then you;d probably be right his ‘singles’ could be worth more than the average Farney…but that is provided he doesn’t continue to get thrown out on steal attempts.

Perhaps a a flatbed truck loaded with cadavers will explode in front of a Star Trek convention. One can only dream and hope.

by Madville on Mar 9, 2009 9:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well...

It’s been posted here before (by me and others) that a disruptive runner on base is more detrimental to the batter than the pitcher. So you have that.

Second, so far this team seems to be running into alot of outs on the basepaths. Time isn’t the limiting factor in baseball, outs are. It may be visually appealing (and I’m sure Marty and Cowboy will be wetting themselves all season), but an out trying to gain an extra base is just as bad as any other out (in the current scoring environment, if you’re not safe stealing about 75% of the time you’re hurting your team).

Third, fast does not neccessarily mean “good baserunner”, and visa versa. I read somewhere (here? BBTF?) that Adam “Baseclogger” Dunn actually scored more often from 1st on a double than an average MLB player.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Mar 10, 2009 8:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To think of it another way

Getting caught stealing a base is similar to a wide receiver not getting out of bounds in football when his team is losing. The announcers will tear him to pieces because he didn’t stop the clock and the end of the game is getting that much closer. The chances for that receiver’s team to win the game have lessened.

The same thing essentially happens when a runner is caught stealing (a scoring opportunity is erased, and the game is 1/27th closer to being done). Yet rarely will you hear announcers excoriating a runner for trying to steal and failing. A rare exception was the game between the Dominican Republic and the Netherlands when our own Willy Taveras was called out by the announcers twice for baserunning mistakes.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 10, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

we may make a sabermetrician out of you yet

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I get the principles

I just hate looking up numbers.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 10, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1/27th = 3.7%

"I accidently put the night light in the washing machine."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 10, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Mar 12, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the getting caught stealing thing

I know this doesn’t really make a WHOLE lot of sense but I got this idea while I was watching durango or some other speedster in the WBC. Say if Taveras is at first base and Votto singles, I would assume that Taveras is X more likely to go first to third, creating more value from Votto’s singles than he would otherwise have. I understand that even if this were true it would only create a tiny bit more value as opposed to how much the team is hurt by a runner getting caught stealing, or distracting the pitcher and lowering the hitters chance of success at the plate.

"balls"-Slyde

by The Crushinator on Mar 10, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As far as I know, Baseball Prospectus is the only site that regularly publishes base running number

Last season, Willy Taveras was worth about 12 runs over the typical base runner last year.

9 of those runs come from his base stealing ability.
2 of the runs come from advancing on hits better than the typical runner.
1+ run comes from other advancements (WP, PB, etc.)
he was slightly negative when it comes to advancing on outs

There is some advantage to having Taveras on the bases instead of another runner, but over the course of the season, the difference when advancing on a hit is only a couple of runs, and that definitely doesn’t make up for the fact that runners have less chance of advancing extra bases when he’s batting since he doesn’t hit the ball very hard.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Cool

Thats pretty much what I was looking for, thanks a bunch!

"balls"-Slyde

by The Crushinator on Mar 10, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I give you HAVOC

meets

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 10, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tarpveras?

by Brendanukkah on Mar 10, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Back to the subject for a moment

Understanding Havoc is akin to understanding Boolean algebra or quantum physics or the inner workings of a woman’s mind….nobody at this site is gonna get it.

Why is obc so mean to me when I offer an introduction to a beautiful 25 year old Red's Cheerleader.

by Madville on Mar 13, 2009 2:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Speak for yourself

I don’t find any of those particularly mysterious, and I’m probably not alone here.

Now, credit default swaps…those I don’t understand.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 14, 2009 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry that this is linked to HuffPo, I originally saw it on DesignObserver

but this does a decent job of explaining everything, I thought. I couldn’t find it from the original source, so I had to hit the google. C’est le vie.

But the fact that my comp’s virus gave me a bunch of “REFINANCE YOUR MORTGAGE NOW!” popups when I searched for that…yeah, not so good a sign.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Mar 14, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, that's an interesting video

But I still don’t understand credit default swaps.

Someone said they were like a lottery, and everything worked fine as long as there was only one winner. The problem now is that there’s more than one winner – multiple claims on the same assets.

Supposedly, AIG insured a lot of those credit default swaps, and that’s why we have to keep bailing them out. Not sure what happens if they go belly-up; apparently nobody wants to find out. To the tune of $173 billion…and counting.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 14, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just stumbled upon this because eXile is awesome

and it didn’t really help me, but it may be what you want. Its, um, colorful, though.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Mar 14, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but you're a girl

I thought girls didn’t understand math. Next you’re going to tell me that your not a baseball fan just to impress some cute guy, right?

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The reason girls are bad at math

is because guys keep telling us this:

|-------------------------|

Is six inches.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 14, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

the guys you are with are lying about having 6 inches?

You’d think they’d aim a little higher

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 14, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

The aiming isn't the issue.

It's all fun and games until someone gets herpes. - Fox 4 News

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 16, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This link should explain everything BubbaFan

http://www.blinkx.com/video/bakugan-episode-1-bakugan-the-battle-begins-part-1/3zbgkwrQ2vFnxMfJdlbQJg

Why is obc so mean to me when I offer an introduction to a beautiful 25 year old Red's Cheerleader.

by Madville on Mar 14, 2009 7:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

obviously

The reply button is as mysterious to you as havoc is. :-P

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 14, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: HAVOC

IIRC, last winter Ozzie Guillen promised to implement a similar philosophy for the ’08 White Sox. And the 2008 White Sox won a bunch of games. (In a good division.)

Can anyone speak to how relative their success was to any HAVOC they created last year?

"I accidently put the night light in the washing machine."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 14, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs