So it begins.  Coach BK asked me to hit lead-off on these NL Previews, so I'll do my best to set the table here.  Hopefully everyone reads mine and is inspired to do great work of their own, instead of being so struck stupid by the craftsmanship and articulation of it to abandon their work in despair.  Kind of like how no one ever wants to headline a concert where The Who is the opening act.  So without further ado, today we are looking at our Central Division rival Houston Astros.  I will do my best to keep the butt jokes to a minimum.

Quickies:

General Manager - Ed Wade (check out his trade history here)
Manager - Cecil Cooper
Team Payroll for '08 - 89 mil
Record Previous 3 Seasons
2008 - 86-75 (3rd in NL Central)
2007 - 73-89 (4th)
2006 - 82-80 (2nd)

Former Reds:  Brian Moehler (2002), Aaron Boone ('97-'03)

 Bill Hall/Tomo Ohka All-Stars:  Berkman and Oswalt don't strictly apply because they are pretty good otherwise, but I'll post their numbers against the Reds anyway since it's just bananas.

Berkman (against Reds) - .338/.451/.713  (career) - .302/.413/.560
Oswalt (against Reds) - 23-1, 2.47 ERA,   (career) - 129-64, 3.13 ERA

Brian Moehler made a reputation for himself last year by throwing 15.2 innings and giving up a total of 3 runs in 2 starts.  So he's a jerk too.

Last season, the Astros drastically out-performed their pythag record, scoring 712 runs and giving up 743.  That projects to a 77-84 record, a disparity of 9 wins.  They ended up only 4 games behind the wild-card Brewers, but they played more like our very own 5th place Reds.  Lucky or clutch?

Now, my knowledge of the Astros is cursory at best.  Like most Reds fans, I know Berkman and Oswalt and Carlos Lee, and I know Craig Biggio retired a few years ago.  But beyond that I knew it would take some good old-fashioned hard work to make this thing not suck.  So I rolled up my sleeves, spit on my palms, and sent an e-mail to DyingQuail over at The Crawfish Boxes.  If you are unfamiliar with CFB, they do some damn fine work over there (check out a few interesting pieces here and here).  It's like bizarro Red Reporter, man.  Weird.  Anyway, I asked DyingQuail to answer a few questions for me and he was more than happy to oblige.  So here we go:

Charlie Scrabbles:  What is the starting lineup going to look like?

DyingQuail:  The starting line-up will look something like this:

Kazuo Matsui - 2B
Hunter Pence - RF
Lance Berkman - 1B
Carlos Lee - LF
Miguel Tejada - SS
Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone - 3B
Michael Bourn/Reggie Abercrombie - CF
JR Towles/Humberto Quintero -C
Pitcher du Jour - P

It's not the greatest line-up, but I think it'll be a lot better than Cooper's idiotic persistence in keeping Bourn (a sub .300 OBP) leading off for as much as he did last year. I think that Pence is due for an uptick in OBP, so there will hopefully be someone on for Berkman and Lee early in the game.

One of the Astros beat writers and one of our lead bloggers did some analysis of a true platoon split for Blum/Boone and Bourn/Abercrombie. The results indicated that adhering to the true platoon projects a .722 OPS for Blum and Boone (a huge mark-up in their individual contributions from both sides of the plate) and for Bourn and Abercrombie, a .318 wOBA - a pretty major increase of either of their individual contributions. I'm not sure the Astros are savvy enough for this move, but the potential for a very solid line-up - all the way through the line-up - is there.

CS:  Who is likely to see the majority of the starts at each position?

DQ: 1B - Berkman

2B - Matsui, but we're all only expecting about 400-450 ABs for him this season. Drew Sutton will probably get the call up from AAA whenever Kaz inevitably goes down.

3B - Blum/Boone, with Blum probably getting a slight edge in playing time because he'll be taking the left side of the platoon.

SS - Tejada, but my own analysis this off-season indicated that at least a day off a week would make him much more effective, or at least from what we know from last season when he got breaks it would seem that way.

LF - Lee

CF - Bourn (although they really should go with the platoon)

RF - Pence


CS:  What is the rotation going to look like?

DQ:  In a word, ugly.

Roy Oswalt will hopefully be back to his dominant self for the entire season, instead of just half the season. Most of us at the CFB believe that Wandy (Rodriguez) will have the break through - finally - and become a true #2 starter; take it with a grain of salt though because it's us hoping for that.

After those two, it just gets messy. Hampton, Moehler, and Backe look to be the favorites (probably in that order).

When the Astros signed Mike Hampton, I shot Will Carroll of BPro an email to get some insight on what we might expect from him. Carroll said it is possible we might get value out of Hampton, but more than likely (and this is my inference) we'll probably get about 100 IP out of Hampton before he breaks down again.

Moehler looks like he's due for a massive regression following his rather impressive - for him - 2008 campaign. An ERA hovering around 5.00 and maybe 160 IP is about all we can expect.

Backe is kind of an enigma. He was either on or off in 2008 and unfortunately he was more off than he was on. He was coming back from an accelerated recovery from Tommy John surgery, so maybe Backe rebounds. Even if there is a rebound, we don't see great things, but just mediocre things.

Since Hampton and Moehler are probably due for a DL stint, I think Alberto Arias could be a surprise sixth starter for the Astros. He's got impressive stuff, but has spent the last few years in the Rockies organization as a reliever, which might limit his capacity for a real starting job. He's my dark horse candidate from the pitching side.

Felipe Paulino and Fernando Nieve have long been coveted arms in the Astros farm system, but health has been their stumbling block. Both seem to be getting heat from the organization to step it up or move on in Spring Training. Paulino features a mid-nineties fastball and a cutter/slider that has turned a few heads as well.

Nieve has solid all around stuff and better command than his younger counterpart. Being out of options and competing in the WBC will probably hamper his chances to make the club out of Spring Training and will have to clear waivers before he can be optioned to Round Rock.

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CS:  Who are the key bullpen arms?


DQ:  (Jose) Valverde, (LaTroy) Hawkins, and (Doug) Brocail are the big three. They're fairly well known so I won't say anything more.

The key bullpen arms in terms of our success will be Geoff Geary and Chris Sampson - both of whom are coming off of off-season surgeries. Geary had a hip abductor surgery (if memory serves correctly) and should be fine. Samspon, on the other hand, had right elbow surgery to repair a tear. He'll be a little behind in Spring Training, but is said to be fine. They're presence in the bullpen was crucial to our success and will be again this year because of our over-reliance on the bullpen due to terrible starting pitching.

Wesley Wright will be another guy to watch as our current LOOGY, but a guy who also looks like he might have the stuff to be a closer someday too. At 23, he seems to have a bright future and a spot in a bull pen that is light on lefties.


CS:  Where are the biggest strengths/weaknesses on the club?

DQ:  Strength (in descending order):

Defense (team UZR was 31.9 in '08)

Bullpen

Offense

Starting Pitching


CS:  Who could sneak up on the league and have a breakout season?


DQ:  Alberto Arias, Drew Sutton, and Brian Bogusevic.


CS:  What does the farm look like, who are the big prospects?


DQ:  Like it was neglected for five years. Our biggest prospects at the higher levels are Drew Sutton (2B) who tore up AA and the AFL last year; Brian Bogusevic (CF/RF), who is trying to be the next Rick Ankiel of sorts; Chris Johnson (3B), a high K-rate but solid slugger with a solid enough glove; and Bud Norris, who projects to be a set-up man or maybe a fifth starter.

At the lower levels, last summer's draft stocked us with Jason Castro at the backstop, who could possibly see some playing time as a September call up, and then Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton are two starting pitchers who project to be solid, front-end of the rotation guys.


CS:  Who are the biggest losses from last year? Who are the key acquisitions?


DQ:  Biggest Loss: Ty Wigginton

Key acquisition: ...Saying a key acquisition is impossible - no one we acquired is key.


CS:  How do you see them finishing record-wise, and what would you do to get them back in the playoffs?


DQ:  Record wise we look to be about an 82-83 win team from our community projection project. For us to get back to the playoffs would require solid starting pitching, and I don't see that happening.


CS:  What's the deal with Tejada? What are your feelings on that deal one year later?


DQ:  After finding out that Tejada was two years older than he was, I was pretty upset. After seeing the declining SLG that accompanies that, I was even more upset. I'm pretty ambivalent towards the guys we traded to acquire him (Matt Albers, Luke Scott, Dennis Sarfate, Troy Patton, and Michael Costanzo) so I can't say I'm too critical of Ed Wade for this move, especially since Tejada played admirable defense for us. He's way over paid for the value he provides, but it is what it is at this point.

Now if he could just keep his name out of the headlines for lying and steroids...

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So it looks like the Astros are in the same boat the Reds are; they probably won't compete with the Cubs, but if they can catch a few breaks they could be a 2nd place team in the NL Central.  While DyingQuail and CFB project the team to win 82-83 games, CHONE is more pessimistic - he sees them winning only 72 games.  So in summary, the Asstros are probably a middle-of-the-road team at best, relying on strong defense, a strong bullpen and Lance Berkman to carry them.  At worst, they are a team with no starting pitching depth, too many aging veterans, and few youngsters on the way. 

A very heart-felt thank you to DyingQuail for his time and insight helping me out with this.  He gets a big rec from me.