Paul Daugherty today has an article where he talks about pitchers in the context of something other than wins. My mind is officially blown. Some excerpts:
So much of a pitcher's bottom line is out of his control. Defense, timely hitting, infield positioning, hard dirt. And on and on.
This is the exact premise of Defense Independent Pitching (DIPS). There is a lot that is out of the control of the pitcher once the ball is put in play. If you just look at what the pitcher can control, you have a much better idea of the quality of pitcher he is.
Two years ago, Arroyo was 9-15 and seen as having a bad year. Last year, he atoned, going 15-11. He was much, much better, of course.
Well, not exactly.
In '07, he threw 10 more innings, allowed seven fewer earned runs, five fewer walks and one fewer home run. Arroyo believes the quality start - six innings or more, three or fewer earned runs allowed - is the key pitcher's stat.
"Did I keep my team in the game or not?" he said. "That takes away people making errors, the bullpen blowing games, all that stuff I can't control."
In '07, when he was supposedly bad, Arroyo had 20 quality starts. Last year, when he was allegedly good, he had 18. The tangible difference: Run support. The intangible: Luck. He was almost exactly the same pitcher, both years.
Not to brag on myself too much, but this is straight from something that I sent to John Erardi who passed it on to Doc. Arroyo was basically the same pitcher in 2008 as 2007, and it's nice to see that Daugherty realizes that now.
Kudos to Doc for stepping outside his normal shots at statgeeks and really looking at what we are trying to say. We may make a numbers freak of him yet.