HAVOC to Homers, Reds beat Red Sox 9-8

by Slyde on Mar 3, 2009 4:38 PM EST in Spring Training Comment 77 comments

The Reds opened up a can of HAVOC on the Red Sox this afternoon, and as you can see, HAVOC, when properly executed can have positive results:

The Reds got the scoring going with a single and stolen base by Norris Hopper in the 4th. Later, the scoring progressed with a single and stolen base by Brandon Phillips with a throwing error that allowed Phillips to go to third base. Oh, and there were 2-run home runs by Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion thrown in there as well, but clearly it was the HAVOC that led to the runs. Without the steals, do you think those runners would have scored? They weren't even in scoring position.
In the 7th inning, the Reds loaded the bases on a walk and two hit batsmen. Chris Valaika followed with an RBI single and the Jonny Gomes followed with the Frisch's Big Boy Big Play of the Game: a four-run home run to right field that put the Reds up by a score of 9-2. Gomes has to be looking appetizing to the Reds right now as at least a platoon option in LF.
The pitching left something to be desired today. Micah Owings was solid but got into some trouble in the 4th inning and wasn't helped by his bullpen when Jared Burton surrendered a double allowing 2 runs to score. Both runs were charged to Owings, who finished with 3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K on the day.
Robert Manuel and Carlos Fisher both had decent outings from the bullpen. Manuel pitched a shutout inning, striking out one. Fisher pitched 1.2 innings and allowed two hits, one of which scored a run charged to Adam Pettyjohn, but he struck out two and closed the game when it was tight in the ninth. Both have a slim shot to make the pen, but unless someone gets hurt I doubt they start the year with the big squad.
The two pitchers in between those guys maybe have missed their shot this year as Jeff Kennard and Adam Pettyjohn each gave up 3 runs. Kennard gave up 2 home runs, though he did strike out the side. Pettyjohn could not make it more than a third of an inning after allowing 2 walks and 2 hits, incluidng a home run. Both pitchers were long shots, but their shots are pretty much exstinct at this point.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game goes to Jonny Gomes for his game winning grand slam. For the honor, Gomes gets to box Coco Crisp. Or is that a box of Cocoa Crisps? I can't tell, there is a smudge on the notecard.

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Jab, Jab, PUNCH!

Put him away!

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 3, 2009 4:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

haha

i am so glad coco has been banished to the royals

by saboscork on Mar 3, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

use your star!

hit the start button!

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 3, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

owings first hiccup

i still think it will be a great battle for the fifth spot

by saboscork on Mar 3, 2009 4:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not even gonna' call it a hiccup

He woulda’ been the first starter to go 4 IP, right? He’s just not fully stretched out yet. Plus, he didn’t want to show the Sox everything so he’s ready for the WS matchup.

"You never pass up an opportunity to talk to a woman in a red dress." -- Buck O'Neil (1911-2006)

by "Red" Moskau on Mar 3, 2009 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Did they let Owings DH for himself today?

by ken on Mar 3, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

The Child Eater got the call and elected to show his mercy on the Sox, going 0 for 2.

"You never pass up an opportunity to talk to a woman in a red dress." -- Buck O'Neil (1911-2006)

by "Red" Moskau on Mar 3, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Graet point about getting runners in scoring position

everybdy knows to score points you have to put runners in scoreing position and smalllball is the way to go!!! i hope norris hopper is the every day leadoff hitter because he can steal lost of base and bunt good!!! goo reds!

/fay’s blog comment’d

"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty

by BK on Mar 3, 2009 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I thought you were making fun of Slyde

by Brendanukkah on Mar 3, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Be careful what you wish for even sarcastically

Ditsy Baker could be Colin A, you never know….or even Daedalus…never seen her or a picture of her and have never seen her in a picture with Ditsy

Perhaps a a flatbed truck loaded with cadavers will explode in front of a Star Trek convention. One can only dream and hope.

by Madville on Mar 3, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look guys, I am not the Plymouth Duster

I am just porking his offspring.

On an unrelated note, I expect a call-up around June. And I plan to swing at everything.

beef hoagie

by Colin Auscapee on Mar 3, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Although I will remain leery of you,

you’ve just earned 2 stars in my potty training journal. I won’t tell you how many it takes for the grand prize just yet. Keep up the good work.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 3, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope we score lots of "points" this year.

I think we should make that our team’s field goal.

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 3, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One quick question for the novice

Is there a way to track SBs that do not score and cross reference against CSs that would have via HR and XBH (probable score) or is this too abstract. Help a brotha out. I’m trying to engage.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 3, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This would be some fairly obvious experimenter's bias

would it not?

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 3, 2009 8:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's already tracked

That’s already tracked via the most reliable Runs Created formula. A CS is worth multiple negatives versus a successful Stolen Base. It’s interesting that some of the folks who love a “speed” game don’t really understand that the value of a base acquired via SB is only marginal value versus a base acquired via “natural” SLG point. Yet those same folks will generally downplay the value of a Base on Balls because it’s marginally less valuable than a Single.

In most situations a runner should stay put unless he can be expected to produce a SB rate at or above 75%. In late game situations, In close-score late-game situations, that expected percentage may be lower, but only because the value of a single Run is heightened. Dusty Baker does not understand any of this, so if he’s given “speed” component, I expect him to use it in an irrational fashion. And make no mistake- Baker’s runner usage this spring is evidence that he’s setting the team up to do just that and it projects a negative SB rate for 2009.

Dusty isn’t a smart man and if he actually continues his preseason slant into the regular season, he’ll do a good job of suppressing the Reds’ Run scoring capabilities.

by SteelSD on Mar 4, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs

rec'd

So right, so nicely composed.

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 4, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Pops is looking for actual runs lost

and there’s no way of doing it other than reviewing the play-by-play.

We should keep a running tally of runs lost to CS/havoc.

by ken on Mar 4, 2009 7:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That is what I was after

and I just didn’t want to have to keep a notepad by my bed in order to prove how stupid all of the SB stuff with Dusty is.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 4, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I knew most of this

and I thank you for the response, but as Ken gleaned below I was interested in actual runs lost vs. runs that would have scored anyway.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 4, 2009 9:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Play-by-Play

As Ken aptly noted, PBP info is the only way to get at that data. While it would be interesting to track it, I’m just not sure how useful it would be. As I’m sure you know, the problem we run into is that we can’t necessarily assume that a HR hit after a CS would have still been hit had the CS not happened. Intuitively, we want to believe that a runner would have scored had he not died on the bases, but I don’t think that’s necessarily true.

That being said, if we’re going to dive into PBP data, it may be more productive to measure SB/CS behavior from a Win Probability perspective. I’ve never felt that something like Win Probability is best used to evaluate players (they can’t control game state), but pretty much all SB behavior is either actively or passively controlled by the Manager and there’s no doubt that enhancing WP is the sole goal of attempting to swipe a bag because the behavior is situational in nature. The resulting Manager WPA would allow us to objectively evaluate how much havoc the HAVOC is actually causing. Could be an interesting daily site project.

by SteelSD on Mar 4, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hence the experimenter's bias I alluded to

I understand the notion that the HR may not have necessarily been hit because with the bases empty the pitcher might have been less careful.
But, we’ll see how much stamina I have to engage in the project.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 4, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if I'm following all this but here's what occurs to me..

Is there a way to separate the “runs created” success of the teams that attempt a few stolen bases here and there from the success of the teams that try to create havoc by attempting to steal at nearly any opportune moment in a game?

In other words, is there a “tipping point” where stolen base attempts become less hazardous? Or maybe even beneficial?

Could lots of HAVOC be a significantly better thing than just a little bit?

"If you have a van or a car and it gets dark you turn on your lights that are called headlights but that's a funny name because vans and cars don't have heads. And real heads don't have lights."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting,

so are you after the percentages in relation to sample sizes (Few attempts/runs created vs. Many attempts/runs created)? My head just went numb. I’m a bit limited in this capacity, I must say.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Mar 4, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. That's what I'm after.

SLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYDE!!!!!!!!!!!

"If you have a van or a car and it gets dark you turn on your lights that are called headlights but that's a funny name because vans and cars don't have heads. And real heads don't have lights."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have time for that

anyone else? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 4, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

That’s pretty tough to track. One can isolate the effect of any event as it relates to the Runs Created formula, but I think what you’re getting at is Run “importance” (for lack of a better term). I think we’d need to look at a combination of three things:

1. The effect of SB behavior on team Runs Created
2. The overall Win Probability effect of situational SB behavior.
3. The team’s +/- Win total versus Pythag

Now, we’re still going to be a lot of independent variables clouding things, but should the SB behavior of a team actually add Runs over the course of a season AND add Win Probability AND add + Wins versus Pythag, we might have something mildly suggestive. But it’s going to take a lot of work to just get to that point.

by SteelSD on Mar 4, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW guys I replied to memory lapse re: the women at O'Bryon's that you don't 'remember'

(see today’s game thread).

Perhaps a a flatbed truck loaded with cadavers will explode in front of a Star Trek convention. One can only dream and hope.

by Madville on Mar 3, 2009 5:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i remember them, brother

"Hey! Look at the kid in the sombrero!"

by obc2 on Mar 3, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For those of you privileged enough to have it

MLBN is showing the Jays v. Canada right now. Featuring our own Jo-eh Votto.

"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty

by BK on Mar 3, 2009 6:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Saw a couple moments of the game and it was Joey in LF chuckling with the CF about something.

by ol Pete on Mar 3, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope he was chuckling

about how easy it was to play LF, and how he wants to be out there to clear room for his franchise to be flexible position-wise with their crown jewels.

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 3, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...or

There's action across the street. It's Snowman! Take him!

by Man Mountain on Mar 3, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was playing 1B when I turned it on

and actually, made a great play to scoop a bad throw from 3B out of the dirt. There’s hope for you yet, Edwin.

"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty

by BK on Mar 3, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was playing 1B and it turned me on

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 3, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i wish there was a game tonight

i’m bored

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There are always other options

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Mar 3, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're a big help

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or...

…you could laugh at Yankee fans panicking over A-Rod hip cyst.

Or celebrate with Dodgers fans over the long-awaited Manny signing.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Arod has a hip cyst?

it’s probably just an inflammation of the injection site

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and the reds should have offered manny 3 years and 60 million

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We don't need a left-fielder, silly

by Brendanukkah on Mar 3, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my bad

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

especially not a right-hander

with power

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 4, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe it's not too late

ESPN has removed the Manny story from their front page.

Somebody jumped the gun…

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's still on the side bar

it says the two are close and that manny is going to take the deal

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Originally

it said it was a done deal.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ah

i saw it on the main part, and then when I went back it had been relegated to tthe side bar

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MLB Trade Rumors

has the chronology:

ESPN Manny Report False

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a callous

from sitting on his pea brain.

Today, he told the press how he wished Jose Reyes was playing for the Yankees. Then had the Yankees PR office release a statement saying that it wasn’t a shot at Jeter. The drama never ends.

And Manny is no fit for the Reds. He doesn’t cause HAVOC on the basepaths. Unless you count not bothering to run to 1B havoc.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he would've won the mvp in cincinnati

eh, he’ll probably win it in L.A. anyway

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Glad Jonny Gomes is playing well for the Reds

I love that guy :)

by mittens on Mar 3, 2009 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gotta love the Havok

The home runs didn’t hurt either.

[This space for sale.]

by Paul Householder on Mar 3, 2009 7:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eh

the grand slam was ok

but the stolen bases rawkd~

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 3, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Everybody loves a

fourrunhomer

by fourrunhomer on Mar 4, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some entertainment for ya 'tHan

Woman calls 911 when McDonald’s runs out of McNuggets

With Audio Goodness!

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Mar 3, 2009 10:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

She wasn’t really complaining about Mickey D’s running out of McNuggets. Her complaint was theft. They ran out of chicken nuggets, then wouldn’t refund her money.

It may not be an emergency, but it wasn’t just running out of nuggets. Frankly, I’d be pretty ticked if it were me. If you don’t have what I paid for, give me my money back. Don’t freakin’ tell me I have accept something I don’t want.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 3, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I just find it amusing when people call 911 over small problems.

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Mar 3, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I won't send you the clip I have about the Viagra OD

by teb7 on Mar 4, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sounds like a rather large and obvious problem, actually.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Mar 4, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't call 911. Call a lawyer!

NEW YORK (AP) – A man has sued the maker of the health drink Boost Plus, claiming the vitamin-enriched beverage gave him an erection that would not subside and caused him to be hospitalized.

The lawsuit filed by Christopher Woods of New York said he bought the nutrition beverage made by the pharmaceutical company Novartis AG at a drugstore on June 5, 2004, and drank it.

Woods’ court papers say he woke up the next morning “with an erection that would not subside” and sought treatment that day for the condition, called severe priapism.

They say Woods, 29, underwent surgery for implantation of a Winter shunt, which moves blood from one area to another.

"If you have a van or a car and it gets dark you turn on your lights that are called headlights but that's a funny name because vans and cars don't have heads. And real heads don't have lights."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 4, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Winter Shunt

would make a great porn name

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Mar 4, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As would

Kerry Wood
Reed Johnson
Felix Pie
Adam Eaton
Rollie Fingers
Dick Pole
Stubby Clapp
Rusty Kuntz (1B coach for KC)
Randy “the Big Unit” Johnson
Dick Starr
and, of course,
Thom Brenneman.

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 4, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reed Johnson?

Quit stealing my bits!

by Brendanukkah on Mar 4, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great minds think alike

when it comes to porn names:

The Chicago Cubs now have a roster that reads a hell of a lot like the credits of a gay porno: Rich Harden, Kerry Wood, Reed Johnson, Chad Fox, Kevin Hart and Felix Pie (pronounced FEE-LICKS PIE). They must have to really concentrate on visualizing Loni Anderson circa 1978 so as not to let their bats go soft.

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Mar 4, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs