The Red Report: Edwin Encarnacion
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2009 11:05 AM EDT
in Red Reports
27 comments
Fast Facts:
- Edwin Elpidio Encarnacion was born January 7th (my birthday too!!), 1983 in La Romana, Dominican Republic. Other notable Major Leaguers born in La Romana are Antonio Alfonseca, Freddy Garcia, Ervin Santana, and fellow Reds infielder Danny Richar.
- Though born in the DR, Edwin spent most of his childhood in Puerto Rico. He attended Manuel Toro High School and was drafted in the 9th round (274th overall) by the Texas Rangers in 2000.
- He was traded a year later with Ruben Mateo to the Reds for pitcher Rob Bell.
- He made a steady climb through the minor leagues, hitting well at every stop. He ranked #4 among Reds prospects in '03, #2 in '04, and #2 (#56 in MLB) in '05.
- 2005 was his best season, getting his first taste of AAA and finding it to his liking. He hit .314/.388/.548 in 78 games. He was promoted to the Majors on June 24th when he started at 3B and batted 9th. Red Reporter stalwarts Brian B and Paul Householder carried the thread, but apparently EdE did little to impress.
- Encarnacion was brought up for good on July 23rd when the Reds shipped veteran 3B Joe Randa to the Padres. He finished the season hitting .232/.308/.436 with 9 HRs in 69 games. He was 22-years-old.
- 2006 saw Encarnacion handed the 3B job out of spring, with high hopes that he could solidify himself as a middle-of-the-order bat. He was really the best prospect the Reds had seen since Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns reached the majors in '01-'02, and consequently there was a ton of pent-up hopefulness surrounding him.
- He started the year like a hurricane, hitting .314/.416/.593 through May 2nd. But May was not April, and he ended up hitting .242/.343/.396 for the month. Click the link to see EdE's monthly breakdown for '06. The dude defines 'streaky'.
- He ended the year with a solid line of .276/.359/.473 with 15 HRs, but also committed 25 errors in only 111 games at 3B. He was 23-years-old.
- 2007 began with many hopeful that he could build on his solid offensive numbers and improve defensively. Unfortunately, April of '07 was quite possibly the worst year of EdE's career. He hit.221/.294/.260 (that is a .554 OPS for all you math wizards out there) and drew the ire of then-manager Jerry Narron. He was often benched in favor of Ryan Freel, who vacated his CF spot for Josh Hamilton. He was also infamously benched by Narron for not running out a pop-fly, when many Reds, including Ken Griffey Jr, had been known to do it from time to time. By May 10th the Reds had seen enough and they sent him down to Louisville to get his act together. chandrathan opined upon his demotion to AAA, "Fire (Narron) and get a real manager in there, and Edwin will be fine."
- The demotion seemed to shake EdE out of his slumber, as he OPS'd 1100 in AAA and was brought back to Cincy after only 11 games. He would continue his streaky ways throughout the year, but would end with a line of .289/.356/.438 with 16 HRs. He also cut down on his errors, committing 16 and showing great improvement following his demotion. He was 24-years-old.
- Many had hoped EdE would be able to improve upon his '07 numbers, but instead he regressed a tad. The start of '08 saw an increase in frustration over his lack of development, but some still hoped he could put it all together.
- He started off the year on a very gratifying foot for many RRs, hitting a walk-off home run just seconds after Jeff Brantley said, "This guy is NOT a clutch player" (hattip to boobs). With men on 1st and 2nd and down 2 runs, Encarnacion was ordered by new manager Dusty Baker to bunt to move the runners over. Fortunately, EdE failed to execute the bunt. This prompted Brantley to utter his famous last words, and discord ensued. BK said it best, but all were thrilled with the outcome. Especially after much EdE-bashing had to that point defined the thread. And to top it off, BobbyO had earlier predicted the outcome.
- EdE's '08 season was marked by steady production once again, but little improvement. Though he set a career-high in home runs with 26, he finished with a batting line of .251/.340/.466. He also committed 23 frustrating errors in the field, and was again among the worst defensive 3B in the league. UZR has consistently rated him ~1 full win below average at the hot corner. Another year with no significant improvement left many clambering for change, but I made the case for patience. He was 25-years-old.
- 2009 looks to be a very important year for Encarnacion regarding his future with the Reds. They have two top 3B prospects (Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco) who look to begin the year in AA and could move up the ladder at a very brisk pace. Utility man and Dusty-favorite Jeff Keppinger could also supplant him if circumstances allow. Some have suggested moving him to LF or 1B to ease his defensive liability, but for now the Reds are sticking with him at 3B. He is definitely one of the most interesting players to follow this year.
Organizational History
Drafted/Signed: Selected by the Texas Rangers in the 9th round in 2000
Signed by: Sammy Melendez
Traded: to the Reds with OF Ruben Mateo for pitcher Rob Bell on June 15, 2001
GM when acquired by Reds: Jim Bowden
Contract Status
MLB service time: 3.085 years
Current contract status: signed 2-year, $7.6 mil deal on 2/17/09
Career Stats
Scouting Report
(via The Baseball Cube)
Power: 80
Speed: 56
Contact: 50
Patience:54
2009 Projections
RR Projected Wins Above Replacement: 2.44
Graphs
Click any link below to view the graph above
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Comments
This is it for EdE
If he doesn’t produce at a more consistent rate this year, I’m predicting a new starting 3B next year (I see someone named Frazier in my crystal ball)
by nycredsfan on Mar 20, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I understand your point
and I’m not saying it’s not true, but you see this argument a lot specifically aimed at EdE, but never someone like BP. I understand that defense plays a huge role in this, but it seems like people are fed up with EdE offensively which is strange because he’s basically the 2nd best hitter on the team, unless Bruce breaks big this season. Yet, the common sentiment is that EdE has had enough chances. Seems weird to me.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
me too
but i kinda see the point. i think since EdE plays 3B, the expectation is that he needs to be an offense-first player. and if you look at the traditional stats and compare them to BP, they look very similar.
(these are rough eyeballin’ it averages over the past 3 seasons)
BP – .270, 23 HRs, 80 RBI
EdE – .270, 20 HRs, 72 RBI
they look like identical hitters, but BP is a Gold Glover at a defense-first position and EdE is a bricklayer at an offense-first position. obviously, this kind of comparison is flawed in many ways, but this is what the average fan is seeing.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, they're not
First, while BP’s BA and SLG (.276/.453) are nearly identical to EdE’s (.272/.458), his OBA (.322) doesn’t compare (.351). Also, while he has 11 more HR and 31 more RBI, he’s done it over 298 more PA; EdE’s rate of AB/HR and AB/RBI are both better. FWIW, BP’s also hit into more than twice as many DPs.
So they’re not the same hitter. They’ve hit for similar power* and average (though I’d argue ‘07 was an outlier for BP while EdE’s been pretty consistant year to year), but EdE gets on base much more often.
*"Power" probably isn’t the best word here. As noted, EdE has a better HR rate (and much better 2B rate); BP, however, benefits from 14 3B (which is more speed than power) while EdE has only 3.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on Mar 20, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"obviously, this kind of comparison is flawed in many ways, but this is what the average fan is seeing."
i was explaining why so many see EdE as being on thin ice and BP as a cornerstone. of course EdE is the better hitter, but it doesnt show up in the numbers that average folks (and Dusty) look at.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i am dismayed at the editing
I wish I could see some bunt attempts and hear all of the Cowboy’s bloviating. But thanks, boobs, I was missing this vid from my life after youtube took it down. You already know I was at this game, it was the second one!
"I usually shoot it pretty straight."- a boating enthusiast
by Colin Auscapee on Mar 20, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you joining us this year?
"How big IS your magic wand?"
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I reckon
but I’m scared. What if it’s like fucking your friend, and everything is different afterward?
"I usually shoot it pretty straight."- a boating enthusiast
by Colin Auscapee on Mar 20, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just don't let obc talk you into a bathroom stall, and everything should be copacetic
by Brendanukkah on Mar 20, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is the world really "copacetic"
I always thought it was “coppa setta” or something. Oops
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on Mar 20, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't worry
if it gets awkward, we won’t acknowledge it on the site, though we will probably talk about to our therapists.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're asking that question on the wrong site
"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty
by BK on Mar 20, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am just fucksin around
i’ll be there
"I usually shoot it pretty straight."- a boating enthusiast
by Colin Auscapee on Mar 20, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you boobs
i dont know what my problem is, but i spent an hour (most of it was because of slow internet) searching that site for that video. it will be logged in the Report.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont think it's listed anywhere
i posted that link 3 or 4 times throughout last season, so i just found it in an old RR walkoff thread
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
by boobs on Mar 20, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahhh
i checked the game thread and the post-game thread and none of the links there worked. thanks again.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
EdE
Will never amount to anything. He is just like Adam Dunn.
And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...
by Paul Householder on Mar 20, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BP is better
Bp puts up above avg #s for a 2B, while EE puts up below avg #s for a 3B. Add BP’s golden glove compared to EE’s crazy arm and that’s why people are more frustrated with EE than they are with BP. Plus, EE’s numbers are somewhat misleading. He is textbook definition of streaky hitter. When he is bad, he is downright pitiful. On the flip side, when he is good, he can carry the team. If he play with more consistency, he can become a fixture. If not, it will more likely be Rosales or Valaika there before Frazier or Fransisco (they’re still a couple of years away).
by rivercity.redleg on Mar 20, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so, is it better that BP can't carry the Reds but is consistent?
I get frustrated too when EdE is struggling, but I don’t understand the argument that because he’s streaky he should be docked points. Is it better to be consistently average or able to carry your team for stretches? I don’t know the answer to that, but I think there is definitely enough value in the 2nd option to not call it a negative.
And BP has above average power for a 2B, but his offensive value is not above average for a 2B. His OPS+ over the last 3 seasons ranks 19 out of 30 2B with at least 1000 PAs. He was 14th out of 18 qualified 2B in Batting Runs last year. EdE was 10th out 18 qualified 3B, though both were below average for qualified hitters (3B – 13 BR, 2B – 7 BR).
I understand the defensive argument and agree with it, but I find a lot of people (not necessarily on this site) not even mentioning the defense. I’ve read a couple of times this week that having EdE batting in this lineup is a detriment. Granted it was from commenters on other blogs, but I’m still just confused as to why EdE’s bat is a detriment but BP’s – or anybody not named Votto – is not.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over the last 3 seasons....
BP’s led the Reds in outs made
… not good
by Highlifeman21 on Mar 23, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and someone was mentioning that EdE needs to learn to hit the curveball the other day
check that graph for curveballs against RHP. Dude kills that pitch. I was surprised. I always thought he was a fastball hitter, but he had a lot of success against breaking balls last year. Not so much against the fastballs.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I noticed that last year
It seemed like he was picking on breaking balls; waiting for them at times.
"I usually shoot it pretty straight."- a boating enthusiast
by Colin Auscapee on Mar 20, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think we saw that last season
with your “what are they swinging at?” mini-series. still surprises me though.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I don't remember that
but I was thinking of this from tonywf. Also, I remember PeteyHendrix saying something similar before as well. Honestly, I hadn’t given much thought to it. I assumed they were right until I ran those graphs this morning.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
by Slyde on Mar 20, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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