Baseball Musings: Reds Team Offense

The unpleasant results are at the link. Here is some of David's commentary:

Dusty Baker manages to assemble lineup in close to the worst possible way. He puts two hitters who don’t do a good job of getting on base in front of his big bat, Joey Votto. I suspect that when the year is over Votto’s RBI total will be strikingly low for his averages.

8 months ago Slyde 33 comments 0 recs |

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For those that are wondering

This is the lineup that he used:
1. Willy Taveras CF
2. Jerry Hairston Jr. LF
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Brandon Phillips 2B
5. Jay Bruce RF
6. Edwin Encarnacion 3B
7. Ramon Hernandez C
8. Alex Gonzalez SS

And the Marcel projections that he used are probably the least optimistic projections for the Reds out of any of them. A big reason for that is because they don’t look at the minor league numbers, so all they have on Jay Bruce is what he did in the Majors. Other systems are more optimistic about Bruce because they know what he did in the minors.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 18, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So Bruce could/should be better than projected here.

And…

Gomes could/should bump up Hairston’s numbers. ..No?

Owings improves the pitchers’ spot in the lineup as he was not a part of the numbers used here.

"The latter part of a wise man's life is taken up in curing the follies, prejudices, and false opinions he had contracted in the former."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 18, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

according to Marcel

Gomes isn’t a drastic improvement over Hairston.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 18, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could have guessed that.

I’m not yet feelin’ Jonny.

But we’ve still got Owings every fifth day to blow Marcel’s shit apart. (Except when the fifth starter gets skipped. Then we’ve got him every ninth or tenth day.)

"Look, I just want the horse to have a good home or be food."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 18, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Dusty just say

that A-Gon would bat second?

He is a SS, you know…

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Mar 18, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he said not until he proves his leg is healthy.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 18, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There really isn’t another construction. I guess adding Dickerson and placing him at the top somewhere helps, but that’s being optimistice with Dickerson. We just have crap for an offense, sadly.

by Brian B on Mar 18, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It seems that article was linked to in the worst possible way

by Brendanukkah on Mar 18, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

his site is finicky

it appears to be down at the moment.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 18, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dustbag's line-up at this writing:

Willy Taveras – CF
Chris Dickerson – LF
Joey Votto – 1B
Brandon Phillips – 2B
Jay Bruce – RF
Edwin Encarnacion – 3B
Alex Gonzales – SS
Catcher – C
Pitcher – P

At least this is how I recall it…

A sad state of affairs when BP hits 4th instead of Votto
JayHavoc should be 2nd or 3rd
When Gomes plays (IF) – 5th

The Dustbrain lineup is gonna be ineffective – he just doesn’t know how to do a lineup.

Why is obc so mean to me when I offer an introduction to a beautiful 25 year old Red's Cheerleader.

by Madville on Mar 18, 2009 11:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mads

put the highest obp in order is the best medicine..

the ones that make the less outs should get the most at bats. BP is, at best, a 6 or 7 hitter on a good team.

"Hey! Look at the kid in the sombrero!"

by obc2 on Mar 18, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok.

I played with it a little bit, because at first glance it looked like Marcel hates the Reds. I went to Fangraphs, because they show 5 different projections (James, Marcel, Chone,ZiPS, and Oliver (which I’ve never heard of)), and used the averages of the 5 (AGon only shows 4, possibly because he missed last year).

First, I was somewhat wrong. Marcel actually likes BP, AGon, and especially Taveras. Second, using the average OBA/SLG for the players listed added about .02 r/g, so not much difference.

Replacing Hairston with Dickerson (Marcel loves CDick, giving him an OPS 37 pts. higher than anyone else, but I used the average) made a big difference, taking the r/g up to 4.289; using Gomes (whom Marcel really hates, with an OPS 28 pts lower than anyone else), it rose again, to 4.323.

The biggest difference, though is in the pitcher’s spot. The Reds were 2nd to last in OPS from their pitchers last year, thanks largely to Volquez’s .196 OPS and Cueto’s .148 (.044 SLG); those have to be better (don’t they?), and George Herman Owings is going to get significant ABs. If you plug in the NL average .177/.175 instead of the Reds’ .139/.146, it adds .1 r/g in any scenario.

So – using an average of the projections, with CDick/Gomes in LF (assuming a 70/30 split (70% of MLB ABs are vs. RHP), and league-average production from the pitchers’ spot, the Reds might score slightly more runs than last year – 4.41 r/g, or 10 more runs on the season.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Mar 19, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

woohoo!

714 runs. Playoffs, here we come!

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 19, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea

I got worked up, thinking “the offense has to be better than that, Hairston’s not going to start, he’s underestimating the pitchers, blah, blah, blah”, worked with it for an hour, and found 34 runs for the year.

At 4.2 r/g, the Reds would have been 13th in scoring last year; at 4.41, they would have still finished 12th. The pitching and defense better be improved alot.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Mar 19, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or..

Bruce and Votto better play out of their minds, Taveras better learn to take a walk, and Hernandez better have an offensive renaissance….

Hey it could happen………….

by nycredsfan on Mar 19, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

best case scenario

if all of the players in the expected lineup above match either their best season or the best single projection for them (whichever is better), then the Reds will score about 5.1 R/G with that lineup. The best lineup configuration would score 5.3 R/G.

So, as long as everybody has a career year, the Reds could have a killer offense!

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 19, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep it could

Esp. if EdE, Gonzo and BP play above the backs of their cards.
I am interested in how well Gomes could do if he gets the chance…He’s even tougher than Hannigan

On the other hand I may be guilty of expecting too much out of so many young emerrging players esp. Bruce, Volquez, Bailey and Cueto AND if Harang isn’t back on track…well – I’ll just hope that nycredsfan has the inside dope.

Why is obc so mean to me when I offer an introduction to a beautiful 25 year old Red's Cheerleader.

by Madville on Mar 19, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was actually being sarcastic....

but what is March for if it’s not for optimism?

Then April can be for false hope, May and June for disappointment, August for despair at another losing season, September for apathy, and the offseason for the belief that “next year is our year!”

Hey, it could happen……

by nycredsfan on Mar 19, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's beautiful

"I never should have given up the animation rights."

by BobbyO on Mar 19, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never realized how being a Reds fan is so very much like being a lovelorn goth teen.

"Look, I just want the horse to have a good home or be food."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 19, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other teams' fans don't even drink coffeh!

by Brendanukkah on Mar 19, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you satisfiiiiiied?

"Look, I just want the horse to have a good home or be food."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 19, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're really pushing this aren't you?

I’d like to think our team is above Replacements-level, but… well.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 19, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good one.

But you know what? For a long time the Reds have not been above Replacements-level. There’s a paralell:

They’ve often had the talent to have perhaps achieved a little more than they’ve achieved but they’ve done things to themselves to ensure that they’d never achieve that extra measure of success. But if the truth be told, they probably didn’t have enough talent to be that much better than what they settled into and became.

"Look, I just want the horse to have a good home or be food."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 19, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So what you're saying is

We should expect Bronson Arroyo to join Guns n’ Roses?

by Brendanukkah on Mar 19, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sad to say..

that might actually help Axl’s career.

And yes, I’m really pushing “Unsatisfied” as a Reds’ fan unofficial drinking song/rallying cry. So much so that if someone buys me enough beer during Game #3 I’ll stand up and sing it during the sixth inning stretch.

My boys are too young to be embarrassed and insist that I sit down and shut up.

"Look, I just want the horse to have a good home or be food."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

For Willy Taveras, can it be “How do you say good-night to/ An out-making machine?”

by Brendanukkah on Mar 19, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

at least we're not Cubs fans

that’s like being the kid everybody bullies, except noone feels bad for him because his parents are rich and he’s spoiled, and he treats everybody really bad, so when he gets his ass kicked people think it’s funny.

At least we’re not like that………

by nycredsfan on Mar 19, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs