Comparing the Fastballs of the Reds Top 4 Starters

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 2:00 PM EDT in Features

Just for fun, I wanted to compare the fastballs from the Reds starting pitchers using the Pitch FX data. Below you find a graph created by Harry Pavlidis from Beyond the Box Score and Cubs F/X. The top graph shows the view from the first base dugout, basically. From that graph we can see what type of vertical movement the pitch has. The bottom graph is an overhead view that shows us the horizontal movement of the pitch.

Click for larger image

These graphs can be kind of hard to decipher, but think of them as showing an average flight path of the ball from two different views. If you can mentally combine the views, you'll get a reasonable estimate of what the hitter sees. A big thing to point out that isn't totally obvious from the graphs is that each dot on the line represents a time interval, specifically 1/40th of a second from the previous dot. This somewhat significant because it allows you to factor in the effect of gravity on a slower pitch. The slower the pitch, the longer it takes to get to home plate and the more time that gravity has to work it's magic. Science!

A couple of things you might notice from the graphs is that despite their pitches starting at basically the same height and throwing a more or less the same speed, Volquez's fastball has much more sink than Cueto's. This is one of the big reasons why Cueto gave up 29 home runs last year while Volquez gave up on 14. It's only a difference of about three inches on average, but that's all it takes to get the hitter to just miss a pitch or crush it.

I hadn't really thought about this before, but I wonder if Harang's height is a disadvantage when it comes to leaving pitches up in the zone. Based on the pitch fx data, he's got an extra foot to drop to get into the strike zone compared to Cueto and Volquez. I wonder if there has ever been a study of the correlation between the height of a pitcher and his home run rate.

Anything else that you see that catches your eye?

Special thanks to RJ Anderson from DRays Bay who provided me with Harry Pavlidis's spreadsheets to create this graph.

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Comments

i never realized

that Arroyo’s fastball had such a tail on it. and Harang is a giant!!

these graphs are great stuff. 3 inches is the difference between an extreme flyball pitcher and a groundball pitcher. fantastic.

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 16, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

to be clear

that’s 3 inches of break, not 3 inches in the zone. The movement is probably more crucial than the actual height.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

i get it. thanks for clarify anyway.

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 16, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I figured you did

just wanted to make sure I wasn’t sounding like a fool

too late, I know.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not the size of the hook, it's how you wiggle your worm?

Is that what you’re saying?

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Mar 16, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

You'd be surprised how much tail ALL pitchers' fastballs have on them.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 16, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

And their boats

by Brendanukkah on Mar 16, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

ship-rec'd

by ChillyCheezItz on Mar 16, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

nicely done noob

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 16, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Indeed

Sliders don’t always slide, cutters may actually be straight or tailing. It all depends on arm slots etc.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 16, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting

You’re right, it does look like Harang’s fastball ends up a bit higher than the others when it gets to the plate.

It’s Cueto’s fastball, however, that concerns me. Tell me if I’m wrong, but I’d always heard it was a bad idea for a pitcher to leave a pitch too long on the same plane through the zone. Of the four, Cueto seems to be the most level, which makes me think a batter’s got better opportunity for contact as the pitch crosses the plate.

Youth wins games; veteran presence wins championships!

by ben nevis on Mar 16, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

yep

I noticed that too, but I couldn’t figure out how to express the concern. I think you hit the nail on the head. It’s not just the height of his pitches, but the lack of movement that should be concerning. I have a harder time reading the bottom graph, but it appears to me that he has less horizontal movement as well. There seems to me to be less bend on his line compared to the others. I added a linear trendline in excel and his line held to the trendline much more than the other 3. Arroyo appears to have the most horizontal movement on his fastball.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

then again

I looked at the player cards that Josh Kalk has cooked up and they disagree with me. Volquez has the least vertical movement on his fastball, but he most horizontal movement. Harang has the most vertical movement, but only slightly more than Cueto. Arroyo has the least movement overall on his fastball.

Kalk does a lot of manipulation to the data to adjust for differences in the measuring systems at each park. Plus, I believe he specifically factors out the movement caused by gravity (I think his movement is calculated based on the spin of the pitch). I’m not sure what is right, but I’d guess that he’s closer to the truth than I am. I just aggregated the raw data without any adjustments.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Cincy had some of the biggest issues with PFX calibration in 2008

There was a big shift that was fixed gradually last summer, so look out. I’m not sure if Josh’s approach handles the incremental changes or not. Philly and Yankee stadium also had big shifts last year. I’ve seen stuff change between innings, between games etc.

Good stuff, btw

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 16, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, Josh told me at one time that GABP was terrible for its consistency

and I noticed that Philly was off big time too. I’m not sure how much detail Josh uses in his park adjustments, though I thought I read at one time that he was doing game by game adjustments or something like that.

Thanks for the input. And thanks for not being pissed that RJ gave me your spreadsheet, but he was powerless to my begging tweets.

I do have a question if you are still around. It looks like something weird is happening in the data. Arroyo’s average pz value was 3.0, but in your calculations when it crosses the plate, the height is somewhere around 2.4. I noticed this because his pz is higher than each of the other three pitchers, but his height when it crosses the plate is only higher than Volquez. Is this an issue with what I’m doing or the data or something? It appears that each of the y=0ft points are falling one bucket too early and I was afraid that maybe it was because I was summing the data incorrectly or something. Any thoughts?

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

front of home plate is

y=1.417 ft.

I’m not sure why yours is coming up higher, though. If you’re taking the back of the plate as the crossing, the ball should be lower.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 16, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

oh

I thought y = 0 at the front of home plate. Isn’t pz measured at the front of home plate?

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

what I mean to say is

that if y = 0 at the back of home plate and pz is measured at the front of home plate, then the numbers make more sense. The 3.0 would be at the front of home plate, but the 2.4 would be at the back, though 7 inches of drop seems dramatic over 17 inches of distance.

Sorry, there are things about pitch fx that I am still trying to learn and master.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

it does sound dramatic

but the ball has slowed about 10mph from release, and was already traveling on a downward plane. Even considering that, 7 inches is about 5 too many.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 16, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm dumb

stupid excel spreadsheet not showing decimals on Arroyo’s row for some reason. That 3.0 was actually 2.55, which totally makes sense now. Sorry for wasting your time. It’s actually only dropping 1.8 inches over the length of the plate.

Also, given the fact that the front of the plate is not y=0, the other pitchers make sense too.

I shouldn’t have stopped reading my Excel for Dummies book. Clearly I’m not ready to venture out on my own.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

That does make sense now

And I’m going to steal the “mound” markers – that’s a good idea.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 16, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

it's all about knowing your audience

I knew these idiots wouldn’t have been able to figure out these graphs otherwise.

Er, I mean RR has some of the smartest readers around and I love ’em!

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

oh

and I’m thinking of redoing the plate as an actual set of points so that it can be positioned in the correct spot relative to the pitches. right now it’s just a text box, which can’t be added behind the lines of the graph.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Keep the scale in mind

the mound to plate is 60 ft to -20 ft, and the bird’s eye covers -4 to 4 and the 1st base view is 0 to 8 ft. So, the distance to the plate is compressed.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 16, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

"figure out" "pay attention to"

what’s the difference?

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Mar 16, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate your face

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Mar 16, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

dick

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 16, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

If I didn't know better...

I would think that you speaking to Harry Pavildis was actually you posting and speaking to yourself—kind of like that guy who decided to pick a fight with himself one night (I think it was last year, but I forget).

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on Mar 17, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

could Harang also have the most vertical movement because of his height?

Because he is so tall he can “get on top” of his pitches, and push them down. I don’t know if that makes any sense, I only pitched in little league when I was ten, and “real pitchers” were sick.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Mar 16, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

You ready to rethink that bet yet? :)

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Mar 16, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

nope

are you?

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a chance, dude.

I can’t wait until you are extolling my greatness in your sig line for a whole month.

I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot underage girls were FBI agents.....

by jch24 on Mar 16, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

boy, that jch24 really knows how to impregnate a woman!

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Mar 16, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Harang's height

May be a disadvantage for him in terms of leaving the ball up in the zone at times, but it also allows his mediocre fastball to play up somewhat as his release point is closer to the plate than most pitchers. While pitches decelerate at different rates depending on the spin on the ball and of course weather factors of the day, from his hand to the plate, the ball deals with less factors that will decelerate the ball than guys that aren’t nearly as close as he is when he releases the pitch.

www.redsminorleagues.com
www.MinorLeagueNotebook.com

by dougdirt on Mar 16, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

Bronson's problem is that he pitches in pink

Actually, if I can pretend to understand those graphs at all, it does explain why he has success with a less than overpowering fastball. He has the most sideways movement, but also, his fastball really seems to drop off. It would be interesting to see these guys up against other top pitchers in the game today. Maybe pick three or four reference pitchers and then compare each of our guys to that reference group. You know…. if you’re bored.

The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!

by TheC on Mar 16, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions

so i was accepted to Loyola University Chicago today

but I also had a rectal exam.

It was an up and down day.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Mar 16, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions

congrats on one of those

and I won’t tell you which one.

BOHICA!

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Mar 16, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions

you should really stick with history

and ditch law school.

you’ll sleep better.

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Mar 16, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

...in a smaller house

My millions are unconventional!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 16, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

well done

"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty

by BK on Mar 16, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

not true, I'm a shitty history major

My research is 50% invented, 50% bent to fit my hypothesis. If I went for a graduate degree, someone would eventually call me out on my bullshit.

Historians without scruples are shamed. Lawyers without scruples are famous.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Mar 17, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

research 25% invented + 25% stolen + 50% bent to fit my hypothesis=Dorris Kearns Goodwin

I guess you are better than her…

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Mar 17, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

oh burn?

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Mar 17, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

aaaannndddd 100% Boring!

I only study the history of rippin it up

"balls"-Slyde

by The Crushinator on Mar 17, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Better than she, Justin

Finish the sentence/thought…you wouldn’t say: I guess you are better than her is !!!!

Anyway history is:
50% research – 25% mythology and 25% a twisting of the facts first by the victors and then as the victors are eventuakky assimilated into the greater culture, a slow and cruel twisting of the facts by the losers into more mythology…this then causes more research… ad infitum (however you spell that Justin)

Why is obc so mean to me when I offer an introduction to a beautiful 25 year old Red's Cheerleader.

by Madville on Mar 17, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Up and down?

Maybe in and out instead?

Don’t worry, these things always work their way out in the end.

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on Mar 16, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions

More of an "in and in" day, isn't it?

"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty

by BK on Mar 16, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha

gross

"balls"-Slyde

by The Crushinator on Mar 17, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Hey...

Where’s our new friend Colin Auscapee when you need him?

And Adam Dunn's spirit, ranging for revenge / With Ate by his side come hot from hell, / Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice / Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war...

by Paul Householder on Mar 17, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Any chance

We can see Homer Bailey’s fastball on those graphs?

I love to see perfectly straight lines on graphs…

by Highlifeman21 on Mar 17, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

WE may well see Homer's fastball sooner than later if Harang don't get his shot back

Why is obc so mean to me when I offer an introduction to a beautiful 25 year old Red's Cheerleader.

by Madville on Mar 17, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean SHIT back

Why is obc so mean to me when I offer an introduction to a beautiful 25 year old Red's Cheerleader.

by Madville on Mar 17, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

At this point...

….I’d just be happy if the staff didn’t give up another 200 home runs, like they’ve done 5 out of the past 6 seasons (and the one season they didn’t, 2007, Cinci pitchers surrendered 198 dingers). I’m hopeful that if they can get at least two of these starters to have good seasons they might have a chance of reaching .500. It’s sad that we have to reduce ourselves to this, but we don’t have $400 million to buy ourselves to 95-100 wins, and the youngsters have the misfortune of enduring a manager who thought it a swell idea to give a human out machine 366 at bats (and most of those at the top of the order). And I’m even more hopeful that the offense will develop with Bruce and Votto being a year older, and Edwin finally getting down the concept of hitting curve balls. Hey, look at this way, at least we’re not the Pirates.

by tonywf on Mar 18, 2009 2:44 AM EDT reply actions