The Red Report: Jay Bruce
Fast Facts:
- Jay Anderson Bruce was born in Beaumont, Texas on April 3rd, 1987. As a child, he idolized Ken Griffey Jr, once calling the Kingdome long distance in an attempt to speak with him.
- He attended West Brook High School in Beaumont and was named a 3rd Team High School All-American as an outfielder. Entering his senior season at Beaumont, he wasn't a hot prospect in draft circles, but a breakout senior season saw him rocket up the draft boards.
- The Reds selected him 12th overall in 2005, and Bruce was signed soon after for a bonus of $1.8 million, which is the 5th largest bonus the Reds have ever given a draft pick.
- His first full season in pro ball was spent in low-A ball with the Dayton Dragons, where he hit .291/.355/.516 with 16 home runs as a 19-year-old.
- '07 was Bruce's breakout year, as he completely dominated minor league pitching through 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), putting up a gaudy stat line of .319/.375/.587 with 80 extra base-hits. He spent most of his time in CF and showed the tools necessary to hold his own there, even though most inside and outside the Reds system saw him as a RF.
- Bruce was honored as the Minor League Player of the Year for '07, was selected to the All-Star Futures game, and ended the year atop many prospect lists. As the season came to a close, Bruce was torching AAA pitching and there were some whispers that he should see time with the Reds as a September call-up. But even with some injuries in the Reds outfield, GM Wayne Krivsky decided that Bruce had shown off enough and he would not see time in the majors.
- Bruce was called up to the Reds on May 27th, 2008 after starting the year in AAA. And on the first day Jay Bruce started in CF and hit 2nd in the order, with his boyhood hero Ken Griffey, Jr looking on in the on-deck circle. Bruce went 3-3 with 2 singles, a double, 2 walks, and a stolen base.
- On the second day, Bruce went 1-3 with a double, 2 walks, and a run scored. He became the first player since 1977 to reach base in his first 6 plate appearances.
- On the third day, he was 0-3 and was hit by a pitch.
- On the fourth day, he was 4-5 with a double and 2 runs scored.
- On the fifth day, he was 3-5 with a walk and his first home run. With the game tied at 7 in the bottom of the 10th, Bruce launched a no-doubter into the right field bleachers for his first game-winning a hit, a dramatic home run.
Jay Bruce Walk-Off Home Run (via jeffcats)
- On the sixth day, Bruce he went 2 for 3 with a home run, a single, 2 RBIs, and 1 BB.
- On the seventh day he did not rest; he went 2-4 with a home run. After one week of playing Major League Baseball, Bruce had a batting line of .577/.667/.1.038 with 3 homers, 3 doubles, 9 singles, and six walks.
- Alas, Bruce could not continue his impossibly dominant streak, but he ended the year hitting a respectable .254/.314/.453 with 21 home runs. Had he played a full season, he was on pace to hit 30 home runs. The only guys to hit 30 or more home runs in their age-21 season are Eddie Matthews, Albert Pujols, Hal Trosky, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Canseco, Jimmy Foxx, Bob Horner, Andruw Jones, and Ruben Sierra.
Contract Status:
MLB service time (As of Opening Day 2009): 0.685 years
Signed by Scout: Brian Wilson
Current Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, renewed on a one year contract on 2/21/09
Career Stats:
Scouting Report:
(via The Baseball Cube)
Power: 96
Speed: 58
Contact: 17
Patience: 39
2009 Projections
RR Projected Wins Above Replacement: 2.65
Graphs
Click any link below to view the graph above
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On the 5th day
I was there in the bleachers sitting next to Slyde, ’tHan and sukr. sukr ate a mighty sausage that gave him a tummy ache. I had only one beer. Jay hit a towering home walkoff home run and all was good with the world.
this was NOT the game where I observed a woman performing faux fellatio on a phallic shaped Reds balloon. that was the next game i saw, with ash. : )
"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)
ash was also at the 5th game
i believe it was her birthday
Made from 100% recycled awesome,
by chandrathan on Feb 24, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
I was there.
Best seats I’ve had for a Reds game. 6 or 7 rows up, on the aisle behind the first base dugout. I had more than 1 beer.
Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?
He was the one in the red shirt
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot uderage girls were FBI agents.....
In the red seat section
I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar
by PeteyHendrix on Feb 24, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
Does anyone else have difficulty using the "c" and "x" toggling keys in the Red Reports pages?
They weren’t working for me in the Cueto thread, and they’re not working for me here. They work fine in the other pages, or if someone else makes a comment while I have this page open. Very strange.
Good job, Scrabbles!
It's been spotty for me most of the day too, but not exclusive to Red Reports
I think something’s up.
"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty
by BK on Feb 24, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. "Z" wasn't working all the time either, but i really noticed it in the Cueto page
"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Feb 24, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I looove the Red Reports but..
..I think I’ve noticed my laptop gettin’ gummed up considerably more often when reading them.
"When is marshmallow season?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 25, 2009 8:21 AM EST up reply actions
that's a coincidence and irrelevant
they’ve been doing some changes to the site the last couple of days for the Yahoo thing and I think that has made things wonky. I think it just happened that Red Reports came along at the same time.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
Yahoo'd.
Gotcha.
"Dr. Two-Brains has a strange name because he does have two brains but he's not really a doctor. He just steals cheese."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 25, 2009 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
They've been kind of wonky yesterday and today
I think it has to do with server load or some such thing. Sometimes the page doesn’t load fully. If it’s really bad, the page formatting is shot to hell and everything’s completely unreadable. If it’s only a little bad, the page looks normal but hitting “C” doesn’t work.
Re-loading the page fixes it, but of course, that nukes all the new comments.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
It hasn't worked for me all day
(that’s what she said)
Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you.
by "Red" Moskau on Feb 24, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Still wonky for me today too.
"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Feb 25, 2009 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
I haven't had any problems for a day or two
if you are still having problems, please submit a support incident.. I know, the last thing you want to do is contact the help desk at a blog, but it beats having to fight through a broken system, doesn’t it?
"How big IS your magic wand?"
or just stay off the porn sites
Infect’d
"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)
You can have my BBW amputee porn when you pry it from my cold dead fingers
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot uderage girls were FBI agents.....
It's only the Red Report pages for me
And I’ve tried it on three different computers.
by Brendanukkah on Feb 25, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Jay is the most exciting player to come up throught the Red's sytem since John Bench
Pete was great but who knew then that he become the hit king. Larkin certainly was exciting but not like Jay.
Bench lived up to the hype and so will Bruce.
Unless derailed by injury, economic necessity of a trade or death I will (emotionally) predict Bruce as onne of the all time greatest Red’s everyday players.
The only guy I’ve seen recently who has close to the ‘personal presence and power’ at the plate is Josh Hamilton. Jay will just get better and better and hopefully Votto and Alonzo, and the shortstop whoi swings like a girl and the young pitchers (including my buudy Cueto) will coalesce and we’ll have a few great years of Red’s whoop-ass baseball.
Good Post Charlie!
BTW – ever notice how ash brings out the best in those around her.
肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !
have you been drinking?
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Feb 24, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I am drunk, no high - on Jay that is...
I’m spending tomorrow morning taping a full size poster of Brucer on the ceiling of our bedroom, centered over our bed…
肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !
Then how will you see the mirror?
I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar
by PeteyHendrix on Feb 24, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
Ahem, Mads
Eric Davis is the most exciting Reds player to come up through the system since Frank Robinson.
"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)
Oh yeah, I forgot about ED
Although I don’t think he was as heralded as Bench; remains to be ween, but Brucer may just surpass ED
肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !
ween?
JCH is the expert on weening…
"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)
like a japanese cowboy
There's action across the street. It's Snowman! Take him!
by Man Mountain on Feb 24, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
Those graphs are awwwwwwwwwwesome.
"Sometimes I listen for Griffey’s infectious laugh or Dunn’s humor and wit. But they’re gone." - Dusty
only problem is that All Pitches graph is as blue as the ocean
Dude could stand to make a little more contact.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
It looks like doesn't catch up well to left-handed heat
Is that a bat speed issue, or just the typical “lefties don’t do well against lefties” thing?
by Brendanukkah on Feb 24, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm, maybe it's not bat speed
I just looked at his batted balls spray chart against LHP, and he seemed to pull most of the balls. I guess it’s more of a classic case of being not great against lefties.
by Brendanukkah on Feb 24, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
I'd wager (something, my my wife's copy of 'The Reader' by Bernhard Schlink
that Jay will figure out lefties within his first full year.
肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !
I just watched that video
got real tingly, and now I just want to smoke a cigarette and go to sleep.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
I guess I should've pegged you for a David Krauss man-love fan

He’s so fragile and needy…
肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !
Watch the language, buster
(gray sweatshirt behind the catcher)
by Brendanukkah on Feb 24, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
He's a fan of Bobby Cox
but his shirt was made by justin.
I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar
by PeteyHendrix on Feb 24, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
i was there for that
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Feb 24, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
2 things
first off, low and inside. wow.
second, bill james is really bullish on hove. this gives me great optimism. if jay hits in his top 10 percent of bill’s projections, watch the fuck out.
ps, i also love red reports. this site is way better than when the last guy was running it.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
Bill James' projections are notoriously high
they appear to have been built with the 2001 run scoring environment in mind. I think CHONE and ZiPS are a bit more reliable overall.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
Petey and Madville are notoriously high
They appear to have been raised with the 1960-ish free love, drop-out environment in mind. I think Slyde and jch are a bit more reliable overall.
I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar
by PeteyHendrix on Feb 24, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Does anyone else not get BaseballCube's scouting numbers?
Just looking at their site, it seems pretty slapdash for most of the players. What gives?
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
No, I don't get it either
We’re working on doing a better job with “scouting” for hitters. That’s really just a place-holder.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
For Janish could we just use this?

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on Feb 24, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and you approached it with all the gusto one normally does when fulfilling quotas
There's action across the street. It's Snowman! Take him!
by Man Mountain on Feb 24, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
I'm glad you are doing these...
because all this time I thought his middle initial was T.
Made from 100% recycled awesome,
by chandrathan on Feb 24, 2009 6:39 PM EST reply actions
loving the red reports guys
i remember that first home run. i wasnt there, but it was still memorable. it must have been on a saturday or sunday because the game was on fox. i was watching tv with a friend of mine who is not a sports fan in any way. i insisted that we watch at least some of the game. after it went into extra-innings he was getting really bored and i was about to give him the OK to change the channel — after bruce’s AB. it was quite a moment
H to tha Izz-O
I’m bullish on Jay because really, what other choice do we have? It is entirely possible that for the next 6 years, the Reds will control a top-20 all round player for a fraction of what he’s worth. Don’t fret about the projections—there are very few players who get 450 big league PA in their age 21 seasons, so they will all project him relatively conservatively in order to hedge. I expect his BA and OBP to go up by 30 and the SLG to go up by 60. Welcome to the Bruce era. Go on, dust your shoulders off.
Here's PECOTA for Bruce in 2009
612 PA, 87R, 28HR, 91 RBI, 12 SB, .283/.342/.509
Also, CHONE’s figure is based on computer generated play time projections. If you adjust those to 150 games instead of 128, CHONE thinks Bruce is a fucking monster, due for 31.6 home runs at age 22.
The hardball time is less bullish:
543PA, 26HR, 6 SB, .281/.333/.514
Oh, technically, I’m a Mariners fan but that first week of Jay Bruce captured my heart and Cincinnati has become my de facto NL team inspite of Dusty Baker. By the way, how do you guys stand that guy?
You've been linked
I miss the old days of the internet when men were men, hot girls were middle aged men, and hot uderage girls were FBI agents.....
AND You've been linked to 146 children in 17 states
Studmuffin
肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !
by Madville on Feb 26, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

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