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Points of optimism, with pessimistic undertones

Ok, so the general consensus is that the Reds will be below .500 for the upcoming season and we'll have to really gird up our loins to fein surprise at the poor showing in the standings. My contention is that this may be the true rebuilding season that the Reds have needed for quite a long time. 

Jocketty may not be a dynamic personality and he may have made a few small head scratchers (Taveras, J. Jones, etc.) but he has not given away any of the promising youngsters that could mature relatively soon and contribute to a sustained success.

Now, I will dispense with the things that we already know (like complaints about line-up construction and bench fodder being starters) and try to focus on what will be fun about '09 instead. That is the point of this post, to try and get you all to into the spirit of spring and hope and all of that. I'll keep my intuitions brief here and hopefully everyone else will fill in what their gut (Dusty strategy) tells them will happen this year.

 

1) Cueto breaks out. I think he's an ace in the making. I say he puts up a sub 4.20 ERA this season and is an All-Star in '10.

2) Jay Bruce lives up to his Zips projections. I think he could fall ass backward into 37 HR rather easily and improves his plate discipline. Believing in the kid is not difficult, obviously.

3) EE hits 30 HR and only throws 5 balls over Votto's head. Defensive metrics rejoice.

4) Drew Stubbs gets to play LF by July. This is my wish.

5) Chris Valaika gets a shot at SS after the trade deadline when Seabass is dealt for a minor league relief pitcher.

6) Homer Bailey wins the 5th spot and has success early and builds the confidence he so desperately needs. I say he pitches 125-150 innings. That would be lovely but difficult from the 5 spot, I know, I know, but these are my wishful guts, damnit.

 

So, what else? Good things will be happening amid all of the stupid double switches, right?

 

 

0 recs  |  Comment 46 comments

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Ha! You and I should collaborate!

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Feb 20, 2009 9:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

shit

i had no idea. delete away.

by Pops Daniels on Feb 20, 2009 9:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nah

I thought it was funny that we posted similar types of analysis within one minute of each other. It’s not like we were both just linking to the same article.

Great minds think alike and fools seldom differ.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Feb 20, 2009 9:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He beat you by one minute

Way to copy off of Pops’ format, Slyde…

"I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage." - Dusty Baker (2009) regarding Corey Patterson's relationship with his daughter

by BK on Feb 20, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Number 7

My gut is telling me that Ramon Hernandez will stay (relatively) healthy and put together a solid season: .270/.330.430; 12 HR; 50 RBI; and league average defense.

Those are mostly his 75th percentile PECOTA projections BTW

by D-Rock on Feb 20, 2009 9:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Man, voters are tough to impress

Cueto posts a sub 0.420 ERA this year, and has to wait til next year to be an All-Star? Whatever, I’ll take it.

by Brendanukkah on Feb 20, 2009 10:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

fun with decimal points

that’s a low assed era

Made from 100% recycled awesome,

by chandrathan on Feb 20, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

is that like a high-waisted suit?

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Feb 20, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps unrealistic given managerial tendencies

But I’d love to change:

4) Drew Stubbs gets to play LF by July. This is my wish.
To:
4) Drew Stubbs gets to play CF by July, moving current occupant either to the bench or LF.

Prospectus mentioned that he might be the best outfield defender in the minor leagues, and I’m anxious to see him go get it.

by RedStalk on Feb 20, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I came here to say this

I would be happy if they DFA’d Taveras and ate the money at that point.

"I AM ARABIC FOR SUGAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!" -- by sukr on Jan 12, 2009 4:55 PM EST

by jch24 on Feb 20, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We could always leave him on the bench to pinch run.

You know, instead of Bronson.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Feb 20, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Excess hair = wind drag.

Also, remember when Rijo was our pinch-runner, stole second, and broke his ankle?

Never have one of your starting pitchers pinch-run. Without a bunch of slow-running slugs on the current roster (LLM, Casey), it just ain’t worth the injury possibility for the modicum of improvement in base-running speed.

I laid my bed and I'm going to have to sit on it. - A-Roid the Liar

by PeteyHendrix on Feb 20, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course it's a stupid risk to take...

but when has that ever stopped Dusty?

We want to build long period of time. I didn’t come here for the shot run.

by Gray on Feb 20, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Screw "at that point"

I’d be happy with that now.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Feb 21, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Pops

If its an consolation I vastly prefer your title to Slyde’s. His lacked imagination and his ideas are stoooopid.

(yes Im timing his reply to this post. tick, tick, tick)

"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)

by obc2 on Feb 20, 2009 1:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

been out all day with my Pop

Saw Frost-Nixon. Pretty good. Interesting to see it with someone who was alive then.

And you suck.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Feb 20, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you don't think those shoes are too effeminate?

I guess that’s okay for someone in your line of work.

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Feb 20, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

me and Mads were alive then

"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)

by obc2 on Feb 20, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's correct obc

I remember David Frost as a young and rather silly ‘personality’ who blew everyone away by having the balls to go one on one with Dick. Frost could be pretty funny, actually so could Dick…but the funniest stuff was yet come..Gerald ’Chevy’Ford.

肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !

by Madville on Feb 20, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

feature films

Nixon’s had a couple, so has X, JFK, RFK, Clinton and even W. Time for Reagan and Carter…

"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)

by obc2 on Feb 20, 2009 9:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reagan had a bunch of feature films

Carter’s would put me to sleep – although he’s a great deal of humanitarian work since he retired from the presidency so it (the film) would need to commence after he lost his bid for re-election..

肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !

by Madville on Feb 20, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think the hostage crisis could make a decent spec for a movie

that is one of the biggest reasons carter lost. he was spending almost all of his time working on that

by saboscork on Feb 20, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I already saw the dailys !!!!

Every night on the hews. Grade C or B at best fodder for the masses

肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !

by Madville on Feb 20, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thats NEWS

肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !

by Madville on Feb 20, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it

肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !

by Madville on Feb 20, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Only the bad ones

Here’s real fun Fodder

肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !

by Madville on Feb 21, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too - I actually kinda liked his leadership style

TAKE THAT MR GORBACHEV

肏你祖宗十八代 - and your sister too !

by Madville on Feb 20, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

dickerson gets 300 PA

i would really like to see what we have in him.

also havoc

by saboscork on Feb 20, 2009 9:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree wholeheartedly

"aw....c'mon. That's suck! I heard Coldplay on WARM98" obc son(after watching the band win Best Rock Grammy)

by obc2 on Feb 20, 2009 9:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Number 7

Willy T has a 0.350 OBP and steals over 100 bases.

by Dave from Louisville on Feb 22, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Number 7a

Dave from Louisville eats his dog’s poop.

(that was you, right?)

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Feb 22, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

take that

SLYDE!

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Feb 22, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

didn't realize it was plural

"How big IS your magic wand?"

by Slyde on Feb 22, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wouldn't it be dogs'?

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Feb 22, 2009 2:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

nevermind

"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.

by justin007000 on Feb 22, 2009 2:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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