FanPost

Shortstops: The Final Word

In my ongoing attempt to crowdsource The 2010 Shortstop Solution, I've floated two polls on the subject. As no one says, democracy, like lightning, rarely strikes twice. So far, opinion on this site favors an internal solution by a plurality. Since supporters of fixing SS in house prefer to take a pass on a market solution, let's call this alternative "the public option."

To recap:

In poll one (121 votes), 46% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (19%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (25%) or try both Frazier and Janish at SS (12%).

In poll two (61 votes), 48% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (32%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (19%) or try both Frazier and Janish (6%).

The validity of all this statistical noise is up for debate, but there seems to at least be a measure of reliability here. Almost half of RRs would like the short stop position be filled by someone already in the organization. When you consider the paucity of both resources and free agent options, this seems sensible. The actual percentage might be even higher if voters considered the likely cost in talent of trading for the MLB-ready, top-tier prospects listed on the poll.

For my part, I'm on board with the public option. Simply put, there are no proven, fulltime starters the Reds could nor should pursue in free agent market this offseason. And this isn't the year the Reds win the pennant, so it doesn't seem to make a ton of sense to give up prospects which may be useful in 2011 for one piece in 2010. It seems more prudent to see how Cozart and Valaika fare over another year in the system and then re-evaluate the holdings. This isn't to say that if Jose Reyes were available for a sweetheart deal, you don't jump on it. But the Reds are unlikely to acquire a player of that stature without cutting significantly into their talent (and possibly cash) pool for 2011 - and without having a better understanding of the PH levels and bromine concentration in that pool.

Additionally, it makes little sense to move BP over for any minor role-player. Dusty Baker again echoed the team's complete unwillingness to move him during his press session at the Winter Meetings. While I'll never understand the lack of imagination in the organization, I'm swayed to a degree by the lack of an irresistible force to move Phillips. It's reasonable to assume Frazier isn't ready to play 2B (or SS) in the majors - and he's more likely end up settling down at 3B and LF. Sutton deserves a chance to play semi-regularly, but he certainly doesn't fit the profile of a player who would displace an established, Gold Glove winning 2B (and erroneously-named team MVP). It's unwise to build this case based on seniority, but for lack of a better option, I'm willing to give the organization the benefit of the doubt when it comes to analyzing the defensive strengths all concerned players at both 2B and SS. BP's permanence at 2B seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Which leaves us with Janish at SS. And this seems OK to many here, myself included. In an ideal world, Janish would approximate his .261/.351/.382 minor league line while maintaining his superlative defense. This would make him better at the plate than the recently name-dropped Jamey Carroll while far more valuable defensively. Over a full season, this could make Janish around a 3 WAR player. Even if this best-case scenario is remote, Janish is sure to improve on last year's anemic line. The big proviso is that, as a fulltime starter, Janish would not be insulated from right-handed pitching, which he has a staggering inability to hit across his career (MLB: .182/.273/.281, MiLB: .238/.324/.358).

Even if his offense vs. RHP can be tolerated, the Reds would do well to have a backup plan.

When considering a lower-level trade or FA pick-up, the standard would have to be a player who is better than Sutton or Rosales enough to justify the price of admission. The area of biggest impact for a minor singing or trade would likely be in acquiring a player who can play a competent SS in the majors (something Sutton and Rosales are not likely to do), while hitting righties at a decent clip. That way, you aren't throwing a chunk of your already thin budget at a player with the same basic skillset as two cost-controlled bench players already on the roster.

The goal of this move would be to improve bench depth, SS offense and, quite possibly, near-term SS depth if the player performs well enough to enter the discussion for 2011.

Nor surprisingly, the possibilities are underwhelming. But I think there is someone in the faceless mass below who, at the very least, would represent a moderately-priced insurance policy. With this step, we move tantalizingly close to a collective final decision on who, weighing all practical considerations, ought to be the Red's offseason pickup (if any). To quote Denise Richards, Christmas is coming early this year.

The baseline:

Adam Rosales

Has posted a -1.6 UZR in 448 Innings at 3B. Too small a sample to say anything conclusive, but he's likely to be about neutral at 2B and slightly negative at SS and 3B, due in part to his arm.

.197/.293/.290 (224 PA) vs. RHP in the majors

.298/.368/.507 vs. RHP in the minors (.291/.364/.499 overall)

Rosales shouldn't really be in the conversation at shortstop, but if he can calm the hell down this year, he coud be a solid utility player. While Cousin Harold is widely maligned, any acquisition the Reds make would have to play a better shortstop than Rosales and have comparable upside.

Drew Sutton

Not really much to go on at the major league level in terms of UZR, but intel suggests he'd be slightly plus at 2B and neutral / slightly negative at third. He seems like he could be a better than Rosales at SS.

.281/.385/.469 vs RHP in the minors (.280/.378/.455 overall)

If Sutton is somehow good enough defensively to split time with Janish and can get on base at around .350 or better vs. RHP, there's little reason to go after the Jamey Carrolls of the world. However, he hasn't yet shown evidence he can do either.

Free Agents & Possible non-tenders:

Mike Fontenot

.272/.348/.435 lifetime in majors vs. RHP in 826 PAs (.266/.339/.422 total)

.298/.372/.372 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.295/.377/.460 total)

UZR/150 lifetime at 2B: 10.4 (214 games) - Has played 20 innings of SS in the majors with the Cubs

Maximum offer Reds should consider: 2 years at no more than $7MM guaranteed. Fontenot was worth 3 WAR in '08 and could remain in the middle infield conversation in 2011. I'm not sure how likely it is he will be non-tendered, but the Reds could also look trade.

Craig Counsell

.260/.347/.356 lifetime in majors vs. RHP

2009: .290/.358/.415 (414 PA)

2008: .229/.358/.308 (275 PA)

2007: .234/.337/.316 (274 PA)

UZR/150 lifetime at SS: 7.8

*2009 (UZR/UZR150): -.1 / -1.2

*2008 (UZR/UZR150): 1.9/13.0

*2007 (UZR/UZR150): -.5/-3.9

Maximum offer Reds should consider: 1 year at $2.8MM. Sure to get better offers. Even at this below-market price, would make an expensive platoon/utility player on the Reds budget.

Jamey Carroll

.269/.348/.346 lifetime in majors vs. RHP

2009: .278/.350/.348 (260 PA)

2008: .229/.358/.308 (275 PA)

UZR/150 lifetime at SS: -6.7

Maximum offer Reds should consider: 2 years at no more than $5MM total guaranteed

Nick Green

.236/.305/.375 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (235 PA)

.255/.299/.415 lifetime in the minors vs. RHP

UZR/150 lifetime at SS (104 games): 12.5 -- As per BubbaFan, this is probably an anomaly

Maximum deal Reds should consider: Minor league deal with invitation to spring training. Doesn't hit much better than Janish and doesn't have a platoon advantage, but his.268/.316/.446 minor league line suggests he can hit for some power. Probably not enough of an offensive improvement on Sutton or Rosales.

Khalil Green

.245/.296/.421 lifetime in the majors vs. RHP

UZR/150 lifetime at SS (678 games): -2.6

Maximum deal Reds should consider: Split deal at close to league minimum guaranteed

Trade possibilities:

Maicer Izturis

Now that he's got his own frontpage RR thread, you have to think he's the presumptive favorite.

He's a switch-hitter, but seems to hit RHP with more power to the tune of .283/.344/.404 lifetime in the majors

He's been used primarily at 2B and 3B, but has shown the ability to field SS well enough. Given platoon splits, Janish would be a good complement, with Maicer taking starts against RHP.

Maximum Reds should give up: Johnny Gomes or Arthur Rhodes and a Sam LeCure level prospect (not enough?)

Kevin Frandsen

.237/.311/.309 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (314 PA)

.316/.379/.451 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.318/.380/.452 overall)

Not enough major league innings to say for sure, but his UZR is positive 2B (in 594 innings) and negative at SS (in 198 inn). Taken with anecdotal evidence, I think Frandsen would be at least as good as Rosales or Sutton at SS, while likely better than both at 2B.

Maximum Reds should give up: Devin Mesoraco, or possibly Neftali Soto

Jhonny Peralta

.266/.329/.415 lifetime in majors vs. RHP

UZR/150 lifetime at SS (706 games): -5.8

Maximum Reds should give up: Devin Mesoraco or two Logan Ondrusek / Donnie Joseph level prospects

Angel Sanchez

Plays good defense at SS, but only a .292/.340/.384 line against RHP in the minors.

Maximum Reds should give up: A pair of C level prospects.

Luis Valbuena

.251/.303/.404 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (404 PA)

.282/.361/.447 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.272/.350/.411 total)

Defense plays better at 2B

Maximum Reds should give up: Probably nothing but C prospects, though he could be a worthy UTL with some upside if Sutton is out of the picture.

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Who did I miss that might meet the above strictures?

Here's my evolving ranking of the above players, considering all factors at work, as SS/UTL acquisitions this off-season:

  1. Maicer Izturis
  2. Mike Fontenot
  3. Kevin Frandsen
  4. Jhonny Peralta
  5. Craig Counsell
  6. Jamey Carroll
  7. Angel Sanchez
  8. Luis Valbuena
  9. Khalil Green
  10. Nick Green