Shortstops: The Final Word
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 8, 2009 8:45 PM EST
44 comments
In my ongoing attempt to crowdsource The 2010 Shortstop Solution, I've floated two polls on the subject. As no one says, democracy, like lightning, rarely strikes twice. So far, opinion on this site favors an internal solution by a plurality. Since supporters of fixing SS in house prefer to take a pass on a market solution, let's call this alternative "the public option."
To recap:
In poll one (121 votes), 46% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (19%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (25%) or try both Frazier and Janish at SS (12%).
In poll two (61 votes), 48% of voters favored an internal solution: keep Janish at short (32%), move BP for Frazier and/or Sutton (19%) or try both Frazier and Janish (6%).
The validity of all this statistical noise is up for debate, but there seems to at least be a measure of reliability here. Almost half of RRs would like the short stop position be filled by someone already in the organization. When you consider the paucity of both resources and free agent options, this seems sensible. The actual percentage might be even higher if voters considered the likely cost in talent of trading for the MLB-ready, top-tier prospects listed on the poll.
For my part, I'm on board with the public option. Simply put, there are no proven, fulltime starters the Reds could nor should pursue in free agent market this offseason. And this isn't the year the Reds win the pennant, so it doesn't seem to make a ton of sense to give up prospects which may be useful in 2011 for one piece in 2010. It seems more prudent to see how Cozart and Valaika fare over another year in the system and then re-evaluate the holdings. This isn't to say that if Jose Reyes were available for a sweetheart deal, you don't jump on it. But the Reds are unlikely to acquire a player of that stature without cutting significantly into their talent (and possibly cash) pool for 2011 - and without having a better understanding of the PH levels and bromine concentration in that pool.
Additionally, it makes little sense to move BP over for any minor role-player. Dusty Baker again echoed the team's complete unwillingness to move him during his press session at the Winter Meetings. While I'll never understand the lack of imagination in the organization, I'm swayed to a degree by the lack of an irresistible force to move Phillips. It's reasonable to assume Frazier isn't ready to play 2B (or SS) in the majors - and he's more likely end up settling down at 3B and LF. Sutton deserves a chance to play semi-regularly, but he certainly doesn't fit the profile of a player who would displace an established, Gold Glove winning 2B (and erroneously-named team MVP). It's unwise to build this case based on seniority, but for lack of a better option, I'm willing to give the organization the benefit of the doubt when it comes to analyzing the defensive strengths all concerned players at both 2B and SS. BP's permanence at 2B seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Which leaves us with Janish at SS. And this seems OK to many here, myself included. In an ideal world, Janish would approximate his .261/.351/.382 minor league line while maintaining his superlative defense. This would make him better at the plate than the recently name-dropped Jamey Carroll while far more valuable defensively. Over a full season, this could make Janish around a 3 WAR player. Even if this best-case scenario is remote, Janish is sure to improve on last year's anemic line. The big proviso is that, as a fulltime starter, Janish would not be insulated from right-handed pitching, which he has a staggering inability to hit across his career (MLB: .182/.273/.281, MiLB: .238/.324/.358).
Even if his offense vs. RHP can be tolerated, the Reds would do well to have a backup plan.
When considering a lower-level trade or FA pick-up, the standard would have to be a player who is better than Sutton or Rosales enough to justify the price of admission. The area of biggest impact for a minor singing or trade would likely be in acquiring a player who can play a competent SS in the majors (something Sutton and Rosales are not likely to do), while hitting righties at a decent clip. That way, you aren't throwing a chunk of your already thin budget at a player with the same basic skillset as two cost-controlled bench players already on the roster.
The goal of this move would be to improve bench depth, SS offense and, quite possibly, near-term SS depth if the player performs well enough to enter the discussion for 2011.
Nor surprisingly, the possibilities are underwhelming. But I think there is someone in the faceless mass below who, at the very least, would represent a moderately-priced insurance policy. With this step, we move tantalizingly close to a collective final decision on who, weighing all practical considerations, ought to be the Red's offseason pickup (if any). To quote Denise Richards, Christmas is coming early this year.
The baseline:
Has posted a -1.6 UZR in 448 Innings at 3B. Too small a sample to say anything conclusive, but he's likely to be about neutral at 2B and slightly negative at SS and 3B, due in part to his arm.
.197/.293/.290 (224 PA) vs. RHP in the majors
.298/.368/.507 vs. RHP in the minors (.291/.364/.499 overall)
Rosales shouldn't really be in the conversation at shortstop, but if he can calm the hell down this year, he coud be a solid utility player. While Cousin Harold is widely maligned, any acquisition the Reds make would have to play a better shortstop than Rosales and have comparable upside.
Not really much to go on at the major league level in terms of UZR, but intel suggests he'd be slightly plus at 2B and neutral / slightly negative at third. He seems like he could be a better than Rosales at SS.
.281/.385/.469 vs RHP in the minors (.280/.378/.455 overall)
If Sutton is somehow good enough defensively to split time with Janish and can get on base at around .350 or better vs. RHP, there's little reason to go after the Jamey Carrolls of the world. However, he hasn't yet shown evidence he can do either.
Free Agents & Possible non-tenders:
.272/.348/.435 lifetime in majors vs. RHP in 826 PAs (.266/.339/.422 total)
.298/.372/.372 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.295/.377/.460 total)
UZR/150 lifetime at 2B: 10.4 (214 games) - Has played 20 innings of SS in the majors with the Cubs
Maximum offer Reds should consider: 2 years at no more than $7MM guaranteed. Fontenot was worth 3 WAR in '08 and could remain in the middle infield conversation in 2011. I'm not sure how likely it is he will be non-tendered, but the Reds could also look trade.
.260/.347/.356 lifetime in majors vs. RHP
2009: .290/.358/.415 (414 PA)
2008: .229/.358/.308 (275 PA)
2007: .234/.337/.316 (274 PA)
UZR/150 lifetime at SS: 7.8
*2009 (UZR/UZR150): -.1 / -1.2
*2008 (UZR/UZR150): 1.9/13.0
*2007 (UZR/UZR150): -.5/-3.9
Maximum offer Reds should consider: 1 year at $2.8MM. Sure to get better offers. Even at this below-market price, would make an expensive platoon/utility player on the Reds budget.
Jamey Carroll
.269/.348/.346 lifetime in majors vs. RHP
2009: .278/.350/.348 (260 PA)
2008: .229/.358/.308 (275 PA)
UZR/150 lifetime at SS: -6.7
Maximum offer Reds should consider: 2 years at no more than $5MM total guaranteed
Nick Green
.236/.305/.375 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (235 PA)
.255/.299/.415 lifetime in the minors vs. RHP
UZR/150 lifetime at SS (104 games): 12.5 -- As per BubbaFan, this is probably an anomaly
Maximum deal Reds should consider: Minor league deal with invitation to spring training. Doesn't hit much better than Janish and doesn't have a platoon advantage, but his.268/.316/.446 minor league line suggests he can hit for some power. Probably not enough of an offensive improvement on Sutton or Rosales.
Khalil Green
.245/.296/.421 lifetime in the majors vs. RHP
UZR/150 lifetime at SS (678 games): -2.6
Maximum deal Reds should consider: Split deal at close to league minimum guaranteed
Trade possibilities:
Now that he's got his own frontpage RR thread, you have to think he's the presumptive favorite.
He's a switch-hitter, but seems to hit RHP with more power to the tune of .283/.344/.404 lifetime in the majors
He's been used primarily at 2B and 3B, but has shown the ability to field SS well enough. Given platoon splits, Janish would be a good complement, with Maicer taking starts against RHP.
Maximum Reds should give up: Johnny Gomes or Arthur Rhodes and a Sam LeCure level prospect (not enough?)
.237/.311/.309 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (314 PA)
.316/.379/.451 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.318/.380/.452 overall)
Not enough major league innings to say for sure, but his UZR is positive 2B (in 594 innings) and negative at SS (in 198 inn). Taken with anecdotal evidence, I think Frandsen would be at least as good as Rosales or Sutton at SS, while likely better than both at 2B.
Maximum Reds should give up: Devin Mesoraco, or possibly Neftali Soto
.266/.329/.415 lifetime in majors vs. RHP
UZR/150 lifetime at SS (706 games): -5.8
Maximum Reds should give up: Devin Mesoraco or two Logan Ondrusek / Donnie Joseph level prospects
Plays good defense at SS, but only a .292/.340/.384 line against RHP in the minors.
Maximum Reds should give up: A pair of C level prospects.
.251/.303/.404 lifetime in majors vs. RHP (404 PA)
.282/.361/.447 lifetime in minors vs. RHP (.272/.350/.411 total)
Defense plays better at 2B
Maximum Reds should give up: Probably nothing but C prospects, though he could be a worthy UTL with some upside if Sutton is out of the picture.
----
Who did I miss that might meet the above strictures?
Here's my evolving ranking of the above players, considering all factors at work, as SS/UTL acquisitions this off-season:
- Maicer Izturis
- Mike Fontenot
- Kevin Frandsen
- Jhonny Peralta
- Craig Counsell
- Jamey Carroll
- Angel Sanchez
- Luis Valbuena
- Khalil Green
- Nick Green
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No way
should the Reds pay Nick Green more than minimum wage. He’s okay as a utility infielder, but his defense is gawd-awful at SS.
Though he does appear to be a better relief pitcher than Janish…
And I think Bobby Crosby’s a Buc now, or close to it.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
yes, the Pirates announced today that they signed Crosby
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
I probably overshot his defensive value
but how has he been able to compile a 12.1 UZR/150 752 innings at short? I know fielding metrics are suspect – and probably best viewed on a plus/neutral/negative spectrum, but he has to be at least serviceable right?
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 9, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think the problem with Nick Green
is that the sample size is very small. He’s been in baseball ten years, but mostly in the minor leagues. Last year, he spent the whole season in Scranton.
Even in the minors, he hasn’t played SS all that much. 2B is his natural position. He had an okay year for Boston, but I think it was a fluke…and despite being desperate for a SS (so desperate they traded for A-Gon), they are not going to re-sign Green.
I like the guy personally. He seems really nice, doesn’t get into trouble, knows his role, etc. And he’s cute. His twin brother, once a prospect in the Braves system, has given up baseball for modeling. :-)
But having watched him play – in the Bronx, for Boston, and in Scranton – I don’t think he’s worth more than a minor league offer. He just looks really awkward at SS. He’s terrible on the basepaths. Very slow for a SS. And at age 31, he’s not going to improve much. He does play a little corner OFer, but overall, I don’t think he’s versatile enough to be a good utility guy.
And the Reds have better options. The reason the Yankees and Red Sox like Nick Green is that he has some pop (for a utility infielder). But the Reds have someone with even more pop, and who plays SS better: Adam Rosales. Rosales is not exactly my favorite player, but he’s better than Nick Green.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Great stuff
This is case in point to why human observation (duh) is essential. Rosales had a rough time of it when he became the de facto starting 3B in between EdE and Rolen’s short tenures. But there’s every reason to think he’d be a capable utility player.
I’ll downgrade Green accordingly.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 9, 2009 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Jannish will never hit well enough to be valuable no matter how good of a glove he has.
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
I'll bet you the 10 beers that jch owes me that Jannish is replaced at the latest by AS break.
(if you should somehow win, you may collect from jch24, who will be happy to comply).
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
Freddy wasn't the picker that Jannish is
offensively I’d say they’re a dead heat,
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
Depends on what you mean by "valuable enough"
In a half of a season’s worth of playing time last year, he was basically an average valued shortstop according to WAR. For a minimum salary guy, that’s valuable.
However, if they have a chance to add some offense to the team at shortstop, unless it’s with an atrocious fielder, I think they should do that. They need the offense desperately.
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Then why not give Frazier a shot....
Valuable enough = at least league average offense.Which ain’t gonna happen
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
I'm not confident that Frazier would be a league average SS
He might, but I wouldn’t want to put him there if his defense can’t handle it because that leaves no room for error offensively, which is a tough spot to put a rookie in.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
True and he hasn't played SS for a couple of seasons so I guess his range is suspect.
I’d still like to see the kid get a chance to hit a the MLB level without sitting on the bench and wasting away as a ‘role’ player. BP is stick at 2nd and Rolen has 3rd (with END in the wings)…where does this kid play?
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
not sure, but he's definitely above the level of a role player
It sounds like he can play wherever they need him, so it’s a matter of finding out where they need him most. Some of that depends on Francisco finding a position first, since he is more limited defensively.
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Can Fontenot play SS?
I think he’s an all right 2nd baseman. Counsell is too old to play every day. I’d forgotten about Kahlil. Is he someplace looking grim? It’d be great if he did an okay job just for the salty looks LaRussa would beam at him.
Fontenot intrigues me
Did I hear Maicier Izuturis mentioned as being available from the Angels? Any thoughts?
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
He easily jumps to the top of my list
though acquiring a free agent that required dealing a Heisey-type prospect didn’t garner much interest previously. I’d say if his price is Rhodes or Gomes and a B/C prospect, he fits the bill.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 9, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Lost in all this is the fact that
that Valaika and Cozart are both at AAA now. And while Frazier may never be a shortstop, he might see some reps there in spring training or after September call-ups. Cozart seems to be rising, while Valaika was considered a top SS prospect before last season. The Reds are lacking in SS depth, but I think Maicer might represent the upper limit of what they can can/should acquire this year because they can’t afford to take on the salaries of any established major league started and trading for a top tier prospect who would be a fully functional starter by 2011 would either be too costly in core talent for 2011 and/or too little an imrpovement on Valaika or Cozart – and the org really needs a year to evaluate the class of 2011 (Cozart and Valaika especially). Next offseason is the perfect time to separate the wheat from chaff and spend/trade for need.
I guess I’m repeating myself, but I don’t think things are quite as bleak as they seem.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 9, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
things are kinda bleak
need a LF, need Jay to make the leap, need a SS, need a C.
i like the starting pitching. the relief pitching may be suspect.
"Nate Silver is a genius" .... BK
Don't forget aboutour stellar manager
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
Hey why hasn't my team win been recorded for the Bongo-Bongo football team!!!!
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
There are some rough patches, but I like the relief pitching
as long as Lincoln is the mop up guy (or nothing) and Burton returns to form. There are guys like del Rosario and Ondrusek that could be pretty solid in the event of injuries and the Collosus losing structural integrity. Also, Bray should be back by mid-season.
My point was, I think, that when you factor in AAA depth and how that could position the team next year, there’s a little light at the end of the tunnel. There’s no future Barry Larkin coming down the pike, but a low-medium risk pick-up like Maicer or Peralta could be pretty helpful, improving offensive at SS while allowing Janish to ihabit a more effective role.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 11, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
Frandsen
As a Giants fan I know that, for some reason, the Giants Front office hates him and is looking to move both him and Fred lewis this offseason so he could be pretty easily had.
His numbers don't impress me enough that I see him being an upgrade over Paul Janish.
Next.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 9, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Not an upgrade
but a low-risk platoon partner. Janish desperately needs some protection from righties.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 9, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Blake Davis
Unprotected from Rule V, so he’s basically free. One of those “does everything well, but nothing great” guys who could step in if our worst Jannish fears are realized.
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
Doesn't appear to be an improvement on Janish, Rosales or Sutton
at least at first glance. And he’d cost a spot on the active roster.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 9, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
comparing players and why stats are for pencil pushers with nothing else to use
More meaningless stats……..
I like the way that all the numbers supposedly forecast the future when over and over, they are proven wrong… drew stubbs hits 3 HR in 472 AB in AAA, Janish hits 7 in 365… they both bat for same BA …. stubbs then hits 8 HR in 180 AB at 2nd half of season and never in his career is he a HR hitter… Janish hits 1 and bats .211 for the year,… Stubbs is the 2nd coming, Janish of course cant hit… we have proof…..
A-Rod (1 of many examples) hits .204 first year, .then .232 his 2nd year, over 200 AB cum.. and he is the worlds best baseball player.. maybe Seattle should have traded for someone else? after all, he couldn’t hit MLB pitching. those stats PROVED it.. no HR his first year.. poor average the 2nd year. Just think if they didn’t use him in year 3? Well it’s Janish’s year 3.. I am not claiming he is A-Rod, all I am claiming is stats are for pencil pushers … I played pro ball and barely scratched the minors,,, there are so many factors to consider.. the diff between .250 and .300 is minuscule, yet in $$ and reputation, it is worldly .. BA and HR are not the best indicators of player value, its a marketing tool. You have to measure defense, attitude, clutch, speed, contact, desire, willingness to learn, etc.. all these knuckleheads that claim a .260 hitter that has 10 yrs in the majors would benefit the Reds more than a .210 hitter with less than 1 year have absolutely no clue. in addition, the past is NOT an indicator of the future, typically the opposite.. rookies continue to surpass historical results and 35+ veterans slide below history and cost much more…. the past does NOT reflect the future. Last years results do not project this years… in fact, veterans are paid more for name recognition, drawing power, & yrs of service, and not actual performance.
So all I can say is keep playing with the numbers, its good for armchair bloggers, and unless you have looked these guys in the eyes, sat with them on the bench, and know their work ethics, you cant use any of the aforementioned BS in this blog to compare these guys.. but you can get a bunch of bored PC users like me click the adverts and help draw “customers” to this sight so SB nation can make more $$ to stay in business. :)
I'm really not sure what you are arguing against
but if you don’t see the irony in this statement:
the past is NOT an indicator of the future, typically the opposite.. rookies continue to surpass historical results and 35+ veterans slide below history and cost much moreI don’t know what to say.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
I am not sure what the point of your comment is?
Would you mind terribly taking a moment and picking a specific subject, expressing a point of view and backing it up with some facts, trends and history?
For example the difference between a ,250 hitter and ,300 hitter may or may not be minuscule.Without looking at the complete production of each hitter I, for one, could not tell you if your assumption has veracity or not. Some .250 hitter drive in 100 RBIS, hit 40 HRsand have a .295 OBP. Some .300 hitters are platoon players who are under league average defensively and have .310 OBP and can’t take a walk on Sunday…You’ve lost me Awe…may i call you Awe?
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
I'm a pencil pusher for sure
Though I’m not sure why that should have a negative connotation. I’ll never play professional baseball nor have access to proprietary scouting information. So everything I have to say on the subject will be based on my own observation, secondary sources and statistics. These sources have their limitations. Witness the above – BubbaFan has a good impression of Nick Green’s defense, so I folded that into my analysis. The point of this post is to use the available information and wisdom of crowds to generate a consensus about the best SS the Reds should acquire given current financial and player development considerations and the need for a SS that can hit righties (which might be attainable if he has lopsided platoon splits). To that end, I’m not sure what would be a batter indicator than performance against right-handed hitters. Past isn’t always prologue, but it’s really all we have.
So what do you think the Reds should do at SS this year?
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 11, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Pencil pushers seems so ... Revenge of the Nerds
Spreadsheet analogies are much preferred. Oh, and sorry for standing on your lawn.
justin
I deleted your comment. And I’m being completely serious here. If you ever attack another poster like that, you are gone.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
that is far
and i apologize i was out of line. I had a terrible and frustrating afternoon and you shouldn’t tolerate posts like that.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 10, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And speaking of far...it unfar that my FB team Bongo-Bongo is still showing a loss for its last game when it WON
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
Went to the county far
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 11, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Here's something we can all agree on
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 11, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
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