CHONE fielding projections

We linked to Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections a few weeks back, but here are CHONE's fielding projections.  Even though they use a less granular measure (TotalZone instead of UZR), the thing that makes these unique is that they involve both major and minor league data.  That makes them MUCH more reliable for young players with little or no major league experience.  They also include catching stats, which I like.

Here are your Reds, with numbers given in runs per season compared to their position:

C Hanigan +7
C Hernandez -1

1B Votto +0

2B Phillips -3

3B Rolen +7

SS Janish +5
SS Cozart +2
SS Valaika -18

CF Stubbs +11
CF Taveras +7
CF Heisey +3

OF Bruce +2
OF Gomes -6
OF Dickerson +9
OF Balentien +5
OF Frazier +1
OF Dorn -2

Only one that seems drastically off the mark is Phillips, but for some reason the CHONE system seems to be consistently very tough on Phillips, both on offense and defense.  Interesting ratings on Heisey, Balentien, Valaika, and of course, our man Mr. Stubbs.

Keep in mind that the SS & CF positions have much better fielders than 1B/RF/LF, and so +0 at SS/CF means someone is a better fielder than a +5 fielder at 1B/LF/RF.  In fact, here's the currently accepted defensive spectrum over at insidethebook.com, which seems to work very well.

C +12.5
SS +7.5
CF/2B/3B +2.5
LF/RF -7.5
1B -12.5

This is largely based on studies of players who play multiple positions.  It works best (i.e. is most predictive) within the infield and within the outfield, but other factors come into play when going infield to outfield and vice versa that affect these numbers (lefties can't play 2B/3B/SS, for example).  

Anyway, the way to read this is, for example, to say that someone who is an average-fielding shortstop moving to second base will, on average, be roughly +5 runs above average at his new position.  Or, an average left fielder moving to center field will tend to be about 10 runs below average (catchers are their own animal, and are getting a bonus here for not only being a challenging position but also suffering a hitting drop-off specifically because of their position...but no one is saying that Hanigan would be a gold-glove shortstop).

These position differences are the basis for the position adjustments used in the WAR calculations for position players.

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