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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

He's a bit cheaper than Ramon, and he's also better. Congratulations again, Reds, for misreading the market.

about 2 years ago Zombie-mlb_tiny Charlie Scrabbles 14 comments 0 recs  | 

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I see not that much difference in Zaun or RayMoan…I really don’t want either of them.
But I’d as soon as have RayMoan…I mean how many triples did Zaun hit last season?

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 4, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know about "better"

Zaun had a slightly better offensive year in 2009, but he did it in less playing time and still has the lower career OPS+. He’s also five years older. Defensively, Zaun doesn’t have a great reputation and has a lower CS% (last year and career) than Ramon. If I had to take one I’d pick Hernandez.

by ken on Dec 5, 2009 12:34 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Agreed

If anything, this signing is validation for the Hernandez move.

The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.

-Mark Twain

by poojols on Dec 5, 2009 4:25 AM EST up reply actions  

i dont know about that

the past 3 seasons, Zaun has about 1000 PAs for a wOBA ~.325. same time period, Ramon has ~1100 PAs for a wOBA ~.312.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

But he's going to be 39

There’s a decent chance his hitting falls off a cliff. Hernandez should retain most of his offense next year, and he might even regain some of his power (the lack thereof was the most disappointing thing about him last year). Bill James gives a slight wOBA advantage to Ramon for next year (319 to 316); offensively I’d say they’re about a wash with Hernandez having a little more upside. Factor in defense and I’d definitely take Ramon.

by ken on Dec 5, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

sure Zaun will be a year older

but he’s been pretty steady through his mid-to-late 30s. i dont think his chances of collapse are any more than Ramon’s. Hernandez has fallen off noticeably over the last few years. and he’s coming off knee surgery.

and let’s not forget that Dusty thinks Ramon is a “starting” catcher. i think the odds are in favor of him treating Zaun as more of a platoon guy with Hanigan. of course, that’s just me spitballing.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Unfortunately you are most likely correct in your analysis.

I see it 67% RayMoan
and 33% Hanigan…its the Dusty way.

There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.

by Madville on Dec 5, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Zaun v. Hernandez

I wouldn’t compare career numbers in this case. Zaun has consistently posted an OPS+ between 90-100 the past 5 years. Hernandez did post an OPS+ in excess of 100 from 2003-2006, but has posted on OPS+ below 90 for 3 consecutive seasons.

We were supposed to see a “change in scenery” bump when Hernandez came to Cincinnati, but his OPS & OPS+ stats were even lower last year than they were in Baltimore.

Also of note, with Hernandez’s CS%, 7 of his 18 CS were cases where he didn’t even register an assist (i.e. pitcher CS). His CS% last year was only 25%.

Finally, the question is whether Hernandez is worth 66% more than Zaun. The extra million here and there kills a team with such a limited payroll. Extra million to Hernandez, extra year to Lincoln, extra year to Taveras.

I have to remind myself of that when advocating Gomes. I want them to keep Gomes, but is his $2-3 million the best allocation of resources?

by GregD on Dec 7, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Z’s will be done.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Dec 5, 2009 2:07 AM EST reply actions  

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 5, 2009 3:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess my picture of Zman from 'Beyond the Valley of the Dolls' is too obscure...

There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.

by Madville on Dec 5, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Mads, thanks for keeping the spirit of

Roger Ebert-written, psuedo porn alive. A trully great weird film.

Also, Marcia McBroom is unbelievably hot in that film.

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans

by Farneyismycopilot on Dec 9, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Two Thumbs in....

There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.

by Madville on Dec 9, 2009 5:01 PM EST reply actions  

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