Do you Approve of Walt?
I am a sucker for polls, and poll data. I have done this from time to time in the past. How do you feel about Walt? Look at his entire body of work since he was hired in April of 2008, and do you feel like he is up to snuff? I think this should produce some interesting results. I don't think there is a clear line of thought on this blog about Walt. Like almost all of us hate Dusty, and almost all of us hated Narron, but I don't think the thoughts on Walt are quite as homogeneous.
I disprove of Jocketty. Mostly because of Taveras and Rolen. No reason to reiterate why I feel this way, as I have said it multiple times on this board. I also don't think he is very creative or proactive. There were plenty of times where the Reds were playing a man or two short last year, due to his not wanting to use the D.L. Remember after the Padres extra inning game when he didn't even call up one extra arm to help out a tired staff? There were many other instances when he didn't D.L. injured players who were unavailable for a week or more, but they weren't DL'd. He hamstrung a manager who is already tested by his lack of creativity.
3 recs |
221 comments
|
Comments
I don't have enough yet
to go one way or the other on this one. While I don’t think he has done the greatest job yet, I want to see his ‘plan’ and I don’t think we have seen enough of it yet for me to make a judgment on him yet.
i just feel like Taveras and Rolen pulled any sense of a plan of the rails
we are stuck between rebuilding for next year, and trying to win now which equals 75 wins.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
he makes me miss Krivsky
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Krivsky did seem to worry about the pen more than most
But then, he had reason.
I wouldn’t have paid so much, but CoCo has worked out more or less as expected. Unlike Taveras, which I thought was a downright idiotic signing from square one.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Now, now
If Jocketty ever went into true blow-it-up-start-over-again mode, I’d be far too tempted to make terrible “Control-Walt-Delete” jokes.
So thank god for that.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 3, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
rec'd
That one’s just been simmering on the burner for over a year, hasn’t it?
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Dec 3, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I like to think that Brendan has a huge database of puns for every player and coach in baseball
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 3, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Me too!

"Why do socks have to match?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 3, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
Great Picture of Crolfs..My guess that this wastaken before he took up the T-bone
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
I did not rec this because of lack of accuracy
it should be “Ctrl-Walt-Delete”.
Duh.
Definitely a good argument.
"homogeneous"
Ladies and gentleman, a round of applause please.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Dec 3, 2009 8:37 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
and yet he erases Jocketty's existence in the very next sentence.
Definitely a good argument.
by Slyde on Dec 3, 2009 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Somewhat dissatisfied
Because TWSS, and because of his reputation coming in indicates we’ll have a roster full of Jeff Suppans, Jason Marquises, Ronnie Belliards, and John Mabrys.
by Brian B on Dec 3, 2009 8:47 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Yea, but
those roster full of Suppans, Belliards and Mabry’s won 7 division titles, 2 pennants and a World Series while Jock-o was in STL.
Not saying that will happen again, and working with Dustbag and Dick Pole is a whole lot different than LaRussa and Duncan, but I want to give him a another year or two. I’d especially like to see how he does given a chance to pick his own manager/coaching staff.
Walt aint gonna land us pujols to go with that garbage
And add Jamey Carroll to the pile of garbage that the Reds repeatedly make mistakes on. It totally figures that Walt would be interested in him.
by Brian B on Dec 3, 2009 2:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bengal, everyone's too nice to remind you that Dick Pole is now in a retiement home
with other doubly named guys like Breezy Zephyr, Stormy Waters, that hippie Sunshine Clear.
Bryan Price is the newest member of the staff and the next guy to lose his reputation by associating with the mediocrity that is the Reds
wait .... somebody liked narron?
"Some times you get lucky; some times you get Willy Taveras." - Teh Fay
I liked his voice
Asked him to record my voicemail message
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Dec 3, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
honestly i'm too tired to know if that is a complement or not
if it is well spelled it is simply because i haven’t slept for quite a long time now, so I am slowing down and I am more focused on what I am doing, if the spelling is poor, well I haven’t slept in quite a long time.
I just need to bang out 12 more pages and then i can take a nap, then i proof read. My procrastinating ways are much more painful these days as I reach hour 24 without sleep.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 3, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
I hear ya, I'm wrapping up a demanding semester as well
It seems all I’m doing is writing individual papers and editing group papers.
… btw, it was a backhanded compliment!
by Highlifeman21 on Dec 4, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
I'm still angry Krivsky didn't get a fair shake
I really liked his style, although that could be just because I never got the chance to see him flame out terribly.
Walt hasn’t done anything creative yet, which is probably exactly what this team needs. But he’ll keep the Reds within 75-85 wins for a few years. Mediocrity is the new shitty!
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
It wasn't fair at all
In Moskau we have a saying: “Life eez not fare. Pass the vahdkah.”
Didn’t like Kriv-dawg’s “I could tell you but then I’d have to kill you” relationship with the press (and, consequently, the fans). But I liked the approach. And I’d bet rubles that with the experience/scars he got here, he’s gonna’ be terrific when (not “if”) he replaces Minaya in NY.
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Dec 3, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
by the way,
this is the most ridiculous thing I’ve read today:
Sean O’Sheagh, a writer for IrishCentral, a magazine of all things Irish (ethnicity-wise) in America, is reporting that Kelly will be the new coach at Notre Dame.
That is the most stereotypical sentence I have read that didn’t involve beer or leprechauns. And that’s not the best part. The best part is that Ron Pawlus is ND’s quarterbacks coach
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Brian Kelly has a vacatio home in Indiana.
Ergo…
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Actually, I'm pretty sure his actual home is in Indiana
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 3, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I sold him a rather large amount of very nice Garden Furniture last spring.
He was living in Cincinnati with his family (I want to say out near Watch hill…could be wrong there) but had purchased a 2nd home in Indianan on some lake. this was the first time realized that Indianan had actual lakes.. and not just over sized ponds.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Yeah, I know where it is
We play at the same golf course.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 3, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
you are rich enough to golf with Brian Kelly...
Damn…hey I’ve got this idea for a hilarious sit com…and i just need a little seed money to get it going…..
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Does it take place in Indianan or Ohioan?
by Brian B on Dec 3, 2009 6:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Kentuckyian
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Was that during the Pyshceldelic Wars?
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Pleanty of former wetlands in the desolate Northern part of the state were turn into lakes
and the Southern part is full of small glacial lakes. Still, don’t let him fool you, it’s most likely a reservoir and the wished to be upper class living there call it a lake.
I wonder if Rick Mirer is an assistant.
"Why do socks have to match?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 3, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's been a push up to this point
Positives:
- Dunn and Griffey trades: I didn’t like the idea of shipping Dunn out, but I think a lot of us underestimated how much his terrible defense cuts into his value. Getting what proved to be a closer-caliber arm and 5th starter/right handed power-hitting PHer (both under control and pre-arb) is a good return, especially when you consider both players were in the last year of their deals.
- Arthur Rhodes: Exceeded expectations as the Collosus transcended LOOGy status
- Johnny Gomes singing: The type of low-risk/medium reward move that Jocketty seems to be good at pulling off.
- David Weathers: Fangraphs says he had negative value last year, but I think that may be attributable to his performance with the Brewers. He was servicable in Red (3.32 ERA) and the fact Jocketty was able to eek out a little return on the trade makes it a positive
- Alex Gonzalez trade: Credit’s due that he was able to find a taker at all
- Wladimir Balentien trade
Neutral:
- Ramon Hernandez: If my math is right the Reds added about $2MM to accomodate Hernandez last year and are commiting $3MM in total this year.
Negatives:
- Taveras, Lincoln, Hairston signings: The second year at $4MM to twice non-tendered Taveras was probably the worst move Jocketty has made, but all three signings were unnecessary and ill-advised. And in all three players, Jocketty appears to have ignored overwhelming evidence of career numbers and hoodwinked by brief flashes competency.
- Scott Rolen deal: Well chronicled here, but this one was a complete puzzler. I’m not even sure you can argue it makes the team better in the short term, with Rolen’s health and production questionable and the $6MM added to the payroll this year precluding any meaningful transactions – though maybe the financial woes are a blessing in disguise.
The Rolen deal and Taveras signing were the biggest blunders, probably outweighing all the positives, but I think Jocketty gets the benefit of the doubt for at least one more offseason. If he’s still around in 2011, what he does with the budget flexibility should be his final exam.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 12:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
did the Reds get anything besides cash in the weathers deal?
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
No, I don't think so
and I’m not even sure if the amount has been disclosed
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'm cool with it.
But I don’t love it.
Kinda like ‘Parks and Recreation.’
"Why do socks have to match?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 3, 2009 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
I've totally come around on Parks and Rec
Though the uncomfortable truth is that Rashida Jones is a weak link.
/bites fist
by Brendanukkah on Dec 4, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree.
I still think she adds plenty to the show. Amy Poehler is a weaker link than her.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 4, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
Amy's gotten stupendously better over the last couple weeks
The hunting trip? She was amazing. They’ve made her slightly less clueless, and it’s paying off in a big way. Nick Offerman hasn’t had an unfunny moment in probably a month now, and I like the way that Jerry is being turned into such a punching bag. The whole Anne-Brandanowitz thing isn’t doing much for me.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 4, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Jerry is a solid character now.
And I’m a big fan of the intern, whatever the hell her name is.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 4, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
And cutting Johnny Gomes has to go down as the dumbest roster move so far
on top of some poor roster managment in general that may have been partly influenced by budget concerns. I’m not sure how much of this you hang on Jocketty.
I will say that I can get on board with his overarching theory, even if the methodology has been sometimes way off course – and likely influenced by meddling on Castellini’s part. Jocketty’s managed to cobble together possibly the best defensive team in the NL and a top shelf bullpen, two areas the team figures to make an impact for cheap. He also at least pays lip service on the effort to amass young, cost-controlled players. With the money and in-house talent available in 2011, Jocketty can build on good run prevention by assembling a team that can get on base and hit for power. If he’s able to do that, I can forgive him for Taveras and Rolen, which were probably a sop to Dusty and Castellini / season ticket buyers for 2010 respectively.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
hmm, thats interesting
re: defense and bullpen. He’s done the things you can do on the cheap…on the cheap. So the question is whether he can get the big ticket items for an affordable price, too.
When you put it that way, I’m not sure what else I could’ve asked out of him. But I think that may’ve been a big part of The Plan
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
I can't quite detect the tone of your comment
but if it’s straight up, I’d agree that he’s accomplished the easy part first, improving the team cheaply in its areas of need. But even this has alluded past Reds GMs, who have not only been bad at talent evaluation, they’ve also been bad at economizing. Jocketty’s made a series of nice little low-risk acquisitions that could continue to pay dividends after Tavarez and Rolen are off the books (God willing) next year.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I was dead serious
I’ve learned from the Bowdens and O’Briens of the past. It’s a long way from John Vander Wal being the savior
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
or Todd van Poppel?
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 3, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
not just Reds GMs
I think this part eludes most ML GMs. This is really what Beane first did — deep down, it wasn’t about sabermetrics. It was about finding ways to improve your team that are different (and therefore cheaper) than the way most people do. That’s also the A’s problem — they rode that train as far as they could. But eventually, you can’t make the playoffs on good defense and a bullpen, any more than you can make it on a lineup of three-true-outcomes guys and a bullpen.
The best players are obvious to everyone, and you need some of them to win.
So, on that analysis, Walt has been doing what a small market team has to do. Now he’s got to figure out how to add a Pujols and/or a Chris Carpenter.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
The Hairston deal wasn't awful
Cherry was a serviceable player, and filled the utility man role pretty well. Injuries and infatuation by Dusty caused him to get more playing time than he should have, but whatever. I think the Yankees appreciated him, and now he’s got a ring.
And we’ve got Chase Weems.
I think the Hairston deal wasn't very good
Because we basically gave him away for virtually nothing. A C prospect wouldn’t have been too much to ask for a useful utility player?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 3, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Reds got rid of the salary
if folks are going to whine (justifiably) about Taveras and Lincoln, then getting out from under Hairston’s relatively small amount isn’t too shabby, either.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
plus
the Reds got a legit-esque prospect for Sea Bass, which they totally didn’t deserve. So it cancels out.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
The Hairston signing was OK on its face
and $2MM for 1 year was reasonable given his versatility. I just think there was probably a better way to invest that money for a team like the Reds, short on cash and unlikely to compete right away. Signing a Jerry Hairston to shore up your bench is the kind of move a competitive team makes. I liked Cherry and would have been glad to see him paid $2MM on a 2009 Reds team that wasn’t also paying CoCo $12MM and wasn’t coming off a 5th place season.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
he was coming off a 126 OPS+ season
but the three seasons before that were 41 43 36
"Nate Silver is a genius" .... BK
I also think no one is giving him credit for NOT making deals
The trade I wanted: Dye for Bailey, looks silly in retrospect and was popular in the media and amongst fans, but Walt refused to do it.
He’s actually waited to evaluate talent, rather than just blow things up. For instance, when he took control, he noted that the Reds had five untouchable players at the 2008 trade deadline. One of those was EdE. A year later, he decided the team’s new pitching and defense orientation couldn’t accommodate EdE. Now, I agree with Rijo above that the trade for Rolen doesn’t make much sense, but it did show Walt could change his mind. That’s a rare quality in bosses, especially successful ones.
Definitely a good argument
Bonus points for mocking yourself in the process
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
i thought it was the White Sox who backed out because they wanted more than Bailey.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 4, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I think you make a good point about roster management/call-ups
That tilted me from “neutral” to “somewhat dissatisfied”.
Still merits another year or two to see how things pan out.
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
Pretty neutral
Here’s the problem, I think: Any reasonable person would see that this team needs alot of work to be competative. Unfortunately, the guy who signs the paychecks hasn’t shown himself to be overly reasonable. This puts Jockety in a tough spot.
Case in point: Scott Rolen. EdE was disappointing to those of us who saw glimmers of talent, and a lightning rod for the Martys of the world; for his sake, he clearly needed to go. So what was Walt to do? There was no one in-house who was a decent replacement, which meant looking elsewhere. Bob was screaming “Win now!!!” the next office over.
Given the circumstances, I think trading for Rolen did two things for the team: 1. It showed the talk radio guys that “The Reds mean it!” and 2. It gave guys like Frasier and El Nino time to develop.
I also don’t think the payroll is really that “hamstrung”. Again, I don’t think it was reasonable when the trade was made to think the Reds would compete in ‘10, and Rolen’s contract will be off the books in ‘11. Is it a waste of Bob’s money? Yep. Does it hurt the team? I don’t think so.
The next 12 months is the time, I think, when we’ll really know what Walt’s plan is and how he’s going to execute it.
The second year to Taveras, though, was dumb.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
by sidnancy on Dec 3, 2009 1:52 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I do think the Rolen was useful
but I also think the $6MM bump in payroll and loss of the organization’s top pitching prospect are things that hurt the team beyond 2010. Some appeasement is necessary in order to keep fans interested with the illusion of competitive baseball, but the Reds could have used that extra money toward more affordable – and durable – stopgaps while maybe investing some in the draft. If EdE really had to go, they could have non-tendered him and used the $11MM, in conjunction with the trading prowess I know Jocketty has, to fill SS and 3B in such away that doesn’t create an intractable (arterial?) blockage. And both Frazier and Francisco are far from sure bets to stick at 3B.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
** Rolen TRADE
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball America says the Rolen trade
is the only thing that prevented BA from ranking Toronto’s minor league system the worst in baseball. The Jays jumped ahead of the Astros, at least, in that department.
Also today, the Rays released former Red Ramon Ramirez.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 3, 2009 5:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
didn't the reds just cut him lose?
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
I guess it's the way you look at it.
The loss of Stewart might hurt, though TINSSAAPP. However, I’m unconvinced that the money hurts in any real sense – for $11M, the Reds have a chance to get a year of pretty good production out of Rolen (fangraphs thinks he more than earned his money last year); if you’re just plugging in a stop-gap, why not a good one? And I’d be shocked if money spent this year (even $11M) in any way affects the budget going forward. Further, calling Rolen an “intractable blockage” when he’s only under contract for ’10 (no buyout, no vesting) seems quite a stretch.
I also think, as I said above, that the Rolen trade was made as much to appease Castellini as it was to appease the fans. At no point has Castellini shown any patience with this team.
As for Frazier and Francisco being “far from sure bets to stick at 3B”, yea, that was my point; without Rolen, the options would have been (1) rushing one of those two or (2) another 162 PA of below replacement-level production.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
by sidnancy on Dec 3, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They seem to be going on about this lower in this thread
but whether losing Stewart “might” hurt is irrelevant. He was the best pitching prospect in the system at the time of the trade. And money doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The Reds could have had $11MM to play with this offseason, which could have been invested to better effect rather than sunk into one player for one season in which the Reds are unlikely to compete. Not trading for Rolen wouldn’t have meant the 2011 payroll would be somehow magically higher, but it could meant more value in the system downstream, beyond 2010, by way of keeping Stewart and putting the money toward acquiring younger, under-control players who’ll stand to contribute when the Reds get competitive (via draft, international singings and flexibility with signings and trades).
I really like having Rolen and he certainly makes the team better this year, but there’s little question trading for his contract has impaired the long term progress of the franchise. It’s not at all catastrophic – and certainly understandable when you consider how impatient Castellini seems to be – but it’s poor stewardship of a team that, by all indications, won’t be ready to compete until 2011.
And I didn’t mean that Rolen was an “intractable blockage,” just that Jocketty could have brought in someone cheaper to keep 3B warm for 2010, possibly by trade, who was off the books or tradeable in ‘11. I mention Frazier and Francisco not being sure bets to suggest that acquiring someone who was under contract in ’11 wouldn’t have been the end of the world, though I would prefer it to have been a youngish SS rather than and oldish 3B.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
And I know that perpetually playing for two years from now is not a good governing principle
but that’s where the Reds seem to be stuck. I agree with you that Rolen is a good PR move for the faithful and as such is helped by only being guaranteed through the end of the season. We’re not talking about an Eric Milton or CoCo Cordero signing here.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well...
1. While Stewart may have been the best pitching prospect in the system, that doesn’t make him an “A” prospect. Especially before this year’s draft, the Reds’ pitching prospects were pretty poor.
2. I agree that the money doesn’t exist in a complete vacuum, but the yearly budget kind of does. In other words, the budget this year would be what it is (~$75M) whether we were paying $11M to Rolen or $2M to each of Corey Patterson, Brett Tomko, EdE, and Gookie Dawkins with a little left over for Eric Milton. More importantly, that money is better spent on a Rolen than on a bushel full of those other guys because he’s going to be worth it. Remember, he’s getting the same amount of money (actually, $500K less) than Taveras, Hernandez, Lincoln, and Rhodes next year; which is likely to be the better return? Last year, fangraphs had Rolen at 3.8 WAR, but that was his best year in the last 3. Even if he reverts back to 2.5 WAR (only his 56 game ‘05 season was lower), he’s likely to be more valuable than Rhodes (his 1.0 seems about all you can expect from him), Hernandez (0.5 WAR – his worst season, but he really looks like he’s lost it), Lincoln (below replacement level at least partly because he was hurt, but he’s never been more than +0.4) and Taveras (below replacement level for the second year in a row) combined.
3. I disagree that the money spent on Rolen in anyway affects the downstream stuff. First, he cost zero last year. Second, it is likely (if the Reds are a well run business) that the draft, international scouting, minor-league teams, etc. each have their own, separate budgets unaffected by one-year variances in the big-league team budget (which, again, isn’t really varying).
4. There are two ways to acquire young, and neither has anything to do with a big expensive contract: 1. Draft/international free agents – again, their budget should be separate; and 2. Trade for it – the rotting shell of Griffey brought us Nick Masset at the trade deadline in ‘08; isn’t it possible (in fact probable) that the Reds will swap Rolen for a decent piece or two at or near the deadline this year?
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
This is my big hope
that Rolen will have a decent to good first half and get flipped for a prospect in July, allowing Frazier (or maybe END) to assume the position.
Then again, I think Rolen has a no-trade, so it’s unsure if he would accept anything anyway.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
But, um, if...
1. Ok, so Stewart isn’t an “A” prospect. He still could have been the closer of the future. Along with Masset, that’s two cost controlled pitchers holding down late innings relief. If Cordero were to somehow be traded in the next two years, that would be good cover.
2. I’m still not arguing that Rolen isn’t valuable or that commitments to other unproductive players aren’t a bigger cumulative problem, simply that commiting $11 to Rolen this season good way to build for the future. I think the imperative should be to compete in 2011 with a team that can stay competitive – by being young and affordable. It would have been nice to make some moves toward this end during the current offseason. As it stands, the best the Reds can do is probably make a salary-shedding move that provides little in return. With that $11MM of salary space, they could have made an investment – by trade or signing – in someone who’d be around in 2011. If you assume the 2011 budget stays level, then you can look at their resources for building a 2011 playoff team as a choice between “whatever they have to spend in 2011” + $11MM in 2010 VS. “whatever they have to spend in 2011.” I’m hoping Rolen helps keep the team in it this year, but I’d personally take the former.
3. You may be right in a narrow sense. I’m not sure how the Reds accounting works, but surely they know abouy fungibility, especially with such similar funding steams as contracts to players on the active roster vs. amateur draft and international singings. Money saved on team payroll translates to money saved for the organization and budget allocation should reflect your priorities. A team that wants to build for the future shouldn’t be looking to make short-term, high cost / high-risk investments in player salary. I agree again that there’s more to consider that simply shrinking the budget and acquiring a bunch of 18 year olds. Rolen wasn’t a bad move, just not the best move.
4. Rolen has trade value, but he also has a no-trade clause. Especially with his age and injury history, they would trade him at a loss, if at all. Trade value for a player like Rolen is a very ancillary benefit that I would never base a transaction on. I think Jocketty has show his skill in swinging deals, but getting rid of a problem is almost always < not creating the problem in the first place.
Now if Rolen were to be traded for close-to-MLB ready SS prospect, a Stewart-caliber prospect and salary relief, maybe I’d change my tune… I’d gladly have traded Edwin for a potential 2011 starting shortstop and covered part of his salary. This seems like a remote possibility and it’s always going to be more desirable to make that move in the least contingent way possible. That said, I hope Rolen is healthy and productive this year. With a little bit of luck, he could be worth 3-4 WAR, which will be valuable to the team irrespective of how he got here, potentially 2-3 more WAR than EdE would have been.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 4, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Let's quit dancing
Specifically, how does this team spend $11M this year that both addresses the short-term needs to keep butts in the seats this year and addresses long-term needs at 3B, SS, SP, and/or LF without also trading away another important player? Decent cost-controlled players aren’t free. You either have to trade your own decent cost-controlled players (Frasier) or your good under-contract players (BP); either move just changes the problem. So trading doesn’t seem like a better alternative
What two free-agents are you going to sign (remember, you need one at 3B also) who are going to be better than Rolen + whatever other player you’re replacing in ‘10, while keeping $11M in payroll flexibility in ’11? The Jonny Gomes of the world are blind luck – his entire career was worth .6 WAR before last year, and he’s likely to cost $3M/yr after just 1 decent season.
Finally, Rolen doesn’t need “a little bit of luck” to “be worth 3-4 WAR”; he was worth 3.8 last year.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Admitedly
the degree to which having Rolen over Edwin this year affects attendance is black box to me. I suspect it has less an effect that you think, but I honestly don’t know. To my mind, as a sop to fans and talk radio, the Rolen trade had as much to do with moving Edwin as it did acquiring Rolen. So trade Edwin in the offseason for a player making league minimum- or non-tender him if you think his value is null. Either way, you’ve got $11MM and possibly a mid-level prospect. Personally, I would have kept Edwin for another year. He’ s 27 and his WAR was in an uptick each year from ‘05-’08, with 2.1 in ‘08. He was injured most of last year. Maybe it was politically infeasible to keep him on – and maybe the Reds knew something about his injury that we don’t – but it’s not at all reasonable to think he’d only be a 1-1.5 WAR downgrade from Rolen. That’s in keeping with the difference in their salaries.
The Reds might have gotten away with a 20% decrease in Edwin’s arb salary due to injurie s and performance. If you make a conservative estimate of $4.5MM in 2010, you’ve still got $6.5MM to spend. Scutaro is getting $5MM this year. That’s a pretty questionable signing, but it at least reveals the market. As long as we’re living in fantasy land, I’d move BP to short and I’d feel out the market for Orlando Hudson (he could be had for around $5MM for two year I think). Someone like Hudson would be around and productive in 2011. Mark DeRosa is also worth a look. He could compete for time at 3B and LF and still be a valuable role player in 2011. Failing that, I’d be content to pay Sutton league min to be in the mix and wait on Frazier and Juan Francisco. Take that extra money – because I really do think cash is cash – and put it toward player development, the draft, international signing or, hell, even savings. And extra cash means more flexibility in moving veteran salaries for trade – which translated to better talent in return — basically, a way to indirectly purchase young players under control by other teams.
If you cut Edwin’s salary, you get more variations on this theme to the tune of $11MM. Stick Sutton at third and wait for Frazier and Juan Francisco. I’m not saying this wouldn’t result in inferior baseball, but a 2-3 WAR swing isn’t going to make this season and I’d just as soon have the young guys cutting their teeth midway through the season to prime them for ’11. And more money means greater ability to move pieces around.
It becomes a very inexact science when you start weighing the effect on attendance in ‘10 – and I do think you have a good point there wrt Rolen being on the team – but I “feel” like I’d rather have Stewart, Roenicke, (Hudson or DeRosa), possibly few prospects borne of a trade or two and possibly several million dollars in 2011 in the form of cash foreign/amateur signees than Scott Rolen in 2010. It’s a messy comparison – and not terribly decisive – but that would be my preference.
Subjective, but that’s the best I can do.
I think you’re setting up an unecessarily high barrier for this counterfactual. It’s absurd to think you’d have to sign two players who’d be better in ‘10 than Rolen + mystery player,while keeping $11MM in flexbility in ’11 just to best the Rolen trade. First of all, the ignores the value of Stewart – and to a much lesser extend Josh Roenicke. You seem to brush aside Stewart’s value. Also, you assume spending the $11MM now cannot create value in the form of players who can contribute in ’11.
If you don’t think someone of Rolen’s age and injury history needs some luck to be as good as he was in a resurgent ‘09 – after two years of 2.5 and 2.9 WAR – you’re just being stubborn.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 4, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Also
not knowing the market values of these players makes this difficult task. I’m probably too sold on this idea, but I think having more money to spend over a greater period of time is better for this team, based on where they are talent-wise. Getting a crack at two classes of free agents prior widens the margin of error and allows more possibility to spend efficiently. If Reds signed someone this offseason, it’d probably be for more than one season whereas Rolen would need to be traded before the break, requiring him to stay healthy and productive over the first half.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 4, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
the Reds can't cut Edwin's salary
because he signed a two year contract prior to last season.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
Rijo has some selective memory
he keeps saying “11 mil to spend in 2010” when really it was 6.25 mil net, that’s why we had to give up the prospects
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 5, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
What I think
1. I think bringing in “proven producer” Rolen to a team with alot of question marks, some of whom we were sold as “necessary”, has alot to do with attendance. I think getting rid of “crappy defense” “non-clutch” EdE for such a player also helps with attendance. John Fay’s blog gets alot more traffic than this one does, and look at the tone over there; WLW, with about 10X the reach, is making things even worse. You may not think the effect is real, but consider this: In ’99, the Reds won 96 games, were within 4 games of 1st place every day after June 23 (never in 3rd in the division, and lead at various times), and drew just over 2M fans. In 2000 they traded for Jr., won 9 fewer games, were within 4 of the lead for 3 days after June 13, and drew 25% more fans. Perception is everything.
2. Orlando Hudson is going to make alot more than 2/$10M. He signed a one year deal last year because he was coming off an injury, yet still made $8M because he reached all of his incentives. He then played the whole year and won the Gold Glove at 2B for the 4th time in 5 years. But even then, he isn’t someone who you build around; he’ll be 32 next year.
3. Mark DeRosa is coming off another year like the previous 3, seasons when his salary steadily escalated to $5.5M; Buster Olney says he’s asking for 3/$27. (sorry, no link – found on MLBTR, but the original is behind the paysite).
4. I’m not “brushing aside” Stewart’s value. His value is real, but at least somewhat limited because of his role with the team. While he may be the closer of the future, that future is likely far off because of Cordero’s contract.
5. You’re back to “prospects from a trade or two” – who can this team afford to trade for prospects, if not Rolen? Arroyo might bring something, but that’d leave another hole in the rotation this year; BP certainly could be traded, but again would leave another hole. Everyone else is either not worth prospects or should be untradeable.
6. No, I don’t think that you can get 2 players now on the open market that will cost $11M over the next season that, combined, are likely to outperform Rolen and I certainly think there’s two players in this free-agent class who would do that and be likely to perform well in ’11 and beyond.
7. Even if Rolen reverts all the way back to a 2.5 WAR player, he’s still a bargain at $11M – it appears fangraphs now valued a win at $4.5M last year, making him “worth” slightly more than his salary at that level.
8. The other reality is that if the Reds had more money in ‘10 (whether it was $10.5M by playing Sutton or $5M by keeping Encarnacion), they’d be likely to use it for someone only slightly better than one of their cost-controlled players (especially a pitcher – Doug Davis anyone?)
9. This just in: Scutaro has 2/$12.5M guaranteed coming off a career year; Chone Figgins, coming off a career year, is about to sign for somewhere between 3/$27M and 4/$32M plus a 1st round pick. If that’s the market, I’m even more sure the Rolen deal doesn’t hurt the Reds
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Points well taken
I think it’s worth noting that while I wouldn’t have made the trade at the time, the relative value of Rolen’s contract is affected over time by subsequent developments. You’ve had that out with Scrabbles below, but it’s an important distinction. I think that having not made the trade would have given the team more options, while unforseen market developments and various players’ performances may cut into how lucrative those options would have been versus paying Rolen. The fact that you can’t prove a counterfactual kinda makes this about the end of the line for my thought experiment.
1. I agree that perception is important, but you’re cherry-picking. No transaction (and subsequent signing) could ever compare to hometown-discounted homecoming of a player who was arguably the best or second-best in baseball at the time. After the initial spike in attendence with Griffey, it snapped back below 2M again for the next two years – partly as a result of post-9/11 recession and partly I think because the team just wasn’t good enough, Griffey or no. It hadn’t invested wisely. If you look at attendance over the past two decades, non-personnel factors seem to play a greater role in turnout than any big-name signings: things like the strike, economic downturn and the novelty of the new stadium. The Reds signed Ron Gant in ‘95 and went to the LCS, but the per-game and overall attendance was less over a full season than the previous strike shortened year. The point being, there are a bunch of confounding factors that affect attendance and it’s bad practice to stake your success on one player at the expense of forgoing incremental, cost-effective and sustained improvements. Rolen’s contract is a hiccup on that path.
2-3. You don’t need to “build around” Hudson, but if you can sign him for 2-3 years at no more than $7M in any single year, that seems worth entertaining. You’ve got a solid defensive middle infield worth 5-7 WAR in 2011, rather than BP + ?. If Cozart or Valaika really break out, BP or Hudson could be dealt and the transaction waters could be tested for a second time instead of waiting for everything to align during next offseason. Not tying up money grants flexibility over a two year span. And there’s no way DeRosa gets his asking price.
5. My only point was that having the extra money helps the Reds subsidize a trade to get a better return or seek a more sustainable ‘11 replacement. There are a lot of little moves the Reds are prevented from making with Rolen under contract. What if the best replacement for Arthur Rhodes in ’11 is available this year? What if the Reds can acquire a starting pitcher – or want to trade Arroyo at the break and don’t have the money to kick in to make it a viable deal?
6. Like I said, I think this is a false standard. Even if they kept Edwin, the Reds have almost $7MM in addition to the roughly 3MM they can scrape up for Gomes and possibly additional money secured by trading Rhodes (replace him with Stewart). Pooling that money – 10-11MM could make a significant impact both this year and next. Rolen isn’t going to be worth 3 WAR in 2011, but there’s a better chance to find someone who would be now through either trade or FA signing.
7. Rolen’s effective replacement level would be the value he provides over EdE, Sutton, Juan Francisco or Todd Frazier. I think the Reds get more bang for their buck, over more seasons, by spending at SS or possibly LF. Rolen gives you a smaller potential bump in WAR over one season. Signing Tejada or attaching Stewart in a trade for someone like Erick Aybar or Asdrubal Cabrera would provide more WAR over Janish this season and whoever is next in line for 2011.
8. I think if they signed someone like Ben Sheets (admittedly a risk) to a two-year/$16MM deal, while trading Arroyo, they would end up in 2011 with $4M or so less on the books and some prospects to boot. And there’s no reason the Reds couldn’t go the trade route also. My problem with acquiring Rolen is that the Reds traded for 2010, not 2011. The team needs to be disciplined about cutting out these half-measures, otherwise we’re going to see another decade of 72-90 seasons.
9. Probably not good to throw money at either player, but there’s no reason to expect the market will be better if you’re forced to wait for 2011. I’d prefer having money to test how the market falls out by ST and attempt to make well-considered moves over two offseasons, rather than one. It’s probably not a great market, but there’s nothing that says you need to spend the money.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 4, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
While they traded for Rolen for 2010...
…we all would have flipped out more if they added a year to his contract, even if that made this trade “about 2011,” if you get my meaning. :)
"I like your Christ. I do not like your Christians. They are so unlike your Christ." - Mahatma Gandhi
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 4, 2009 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sick of people raggin on Rolen
The payroll problem is not because of his salary, and how people miss that is beyond me. Whether we picked up his salary or not this year, we were going to be in the same “about where we were last year argument” due to the absurd salaries for Harang, Coco, Bronson, BipPhip, and TVirus. Rolen was icing on the cake, no doubt, but by no means the problem itself.
With the 2011 salary situation being benign at worst and flexible at best, I think Bobo said “screw it, lets upgrade for next year and I’ll save money the next year.” Say we don’t trade for Rolen….we still have a circa $70 mill salary, E5, and the same questions. In 2011, we’ve got $40 some mill committed and the ability to make moves. If anything, it’s an indictment on E5. Get off Rolen’s ass…he’s a baller, our team tore it up once we got him, and it opened up 3B for Francisco/Frazier/Valaika, all of whom we held in higher regard than E5. Yes, Stewart will be good, but get off Walt for pulling that trigger.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 3, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think I've been ragging on Rolen as a player
He’s been elite in his career and is still very good. Objectively, he’s worth the money he’s paid. But, for the Reds, the process of acquiring him and paying him this year I think is counterproductive. I don’t blame Walt for bowing to his boss’s pressure, but that doesn’t make it a good move.
Getting Rolen was certainly a symptom and not a cause. If the Reds didn’t have to pay Coco and Taveras, trading for Rolen would be far less contentious since the Reds might actually be in a spot to put the finishing touches on a playoff-caliber team this year. But that isn’t reality. They have to stand pat and hope Rolen doesn’t get injured this year (he’s missed a minimum of 35 games each of the last 3 seasons) and then Jocketty is has a lot on his plate in one offseason if the Reds want to compete in 2011. I think they’re well positioned to do that, but they’d be in better shape if they’d been able to be more flexible THIS offseason.
And
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 3, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not the player, but the acquisition
I think was the braintrust in charge of the team looked at was simple…who is out there this offseason that can improve our team? What free agent? Who via trade?
The quick answer: nobody. This is one of the worst offseasons for potential Reds that I’ve ever been around given our needs.
Say we don’t trade for Rolen, we’re still stuck with E5…who do we get with that “extra $5 mill” that is out there? There’s nobody that fits our need that is a real difference maker for that price. The SS market is garbage, as is the leadoff hitter market (save for Figgins, who would be out of our price range regardless). What other move would have improved our 2010 team?
I just don’t see one, therefore I completely see why they went for Rolen.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 3, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah the last 5 years the Reds have been real off season players...
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 3, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
I really enjoyed this exchange within this thread.
Seriously.
I went through and gave out a buncha rec’s like I was tossing Tootsie Rolls off of a Fourth of July parade float. Thank you, sid, ’KRP and Batman.
If anyone were to ask me why I read a Cincinnati Reds blog in December I might point them here.
"Why do socks have to match?"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 3, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you're welcome
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 4, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
I just was checking on google "Why do dogs bark at Squirrels?"
Google’s first reference was – Red Reporter, a blog with serious issues.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
I agree
Rolen’s Reds were pretty good last year!
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 5, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Rolen may well surprise us all in 2010
He’s still a very good player on both sides of the ball. I don’t think his acquisition is is either that bad or at all ill timed.
But the what do I know…I like Layne Nix and Adam Dunn.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
It's too early to judge Walt, and too early to judge the Rolen deal.
re: The Rolen deal:
Josh Roenicke has a career MLB ERA of 5.56, and will be 27 this year, and didn’t even taste AAA until 2008. I think his ceiling is as a right-handed setup guy, which is an easily replaceable cog.
EdE sucked last year, even after the trade, and has shown little or no improvement since 2006. And he is now coming off wrist surgery.
Zach Stewart looks like a gem, but that’s not certain yet, many project him as a reliever instead of a starter (though not me), and he looks to be the only real thing we gave up. Plus we got cash back, improved for 2010, and have a tradeable veteran commodity at the deadline if we’re off to a weak start.
Add in the clubhouse influence (which clearly made a difference, if only in BP’s performance), and I am unconvinced that this trade was a dud.
"I like your Christ. I do not like your Christians. They are so unlike your Christ." - Mahatma Gandhi
this is a common mistake
the idea that you cant evaluate a trade until things shake out is horribly backwards. in fact, the only way to properly evaluate a trade is to evaluate the values of the players involved at the moment the trade happened. if we traded Joey Votto for Scott Hairston right now, it would be a horrible trade. even if Votto broke his arm the next day and never hit again and Hairston went on to win 3 MVPs for us, it would still be a bad trade because right now Votto is one of the top young 1B in the game and Hairston is a journeyman outfielder with a suspect bat and questionable pedigree. right now, Votto is more valuable than Hairston, and whatever happens after the trade cant change that.
if we traded Willy Taveras for Albert Pujols and Taveras miraculously won 4 straight batting titles and gold gloves for the Cards and Pujols decided to quit baseball to become a monk, it would still be a terrific trade for us. what happens after the trade should have no bearing on how we evaluate the trade.
ive typed and retyped this response for about 45 minutes now. im still not satisfied with it.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 3, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
I can understand you dissatisfaction.
As hard as I try I can’t find a way to make sense out of your proposition – the whole idea of evaluating a trade is based on how it works out for both sides. i can see no value in attempting to assign a value on past accomplishments.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
by Madville on Dec 3, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Charlie is talking about evaluating in the sense of "did Walt do a good job making that trade?"
Think of it like this. Say A has a ticket that has a one in 3 chance of winning 20 bucks (or Blackacre, whatever your preference), and B has a ticket that has a one in 4 chance. A offers to trade and B, of course, accepts. Well, say, for this instance, they draw the numbers out of a barrel or whatever, and it turns out that the 1 in 3 ticket loses, and the 1 in 4 ticket wins. B wouldn’t go back and say, oh man, that was a stupid trade. If the opportunity came up again, B should make that trade again.
You can only evaluate the GM in terms of the information he had at the time of the trade. (Of course, the value and usefulness of that information may be a reflection on the GM as well). But some things are absolutely out of the control of a GM at the time of a trade.
IAN! I'm on traain!
they both have value
when I worked for a decision analysis firm, we called it “good decision, bad outcome.” That is, given everything you knew at the time, you made the right decision. As circumstances turned out, you lost. But given the chance, you’d make the same decision again.
That’s useful for evaluating the performance of the decisionmaker, separating out the luck factor.
On the other hand, as they say, it’s better to be lucky than good. (Not that luck is persistent, etc etc). But just knowing the odds are in your favor is not the whole story; we all want to know how it actually turns out. After all, if all we cared about were the odds, we’d just award the Series to the Yankees every April.
So, the two methods answer different questions. The only time you get in trouble is when you try to use the wrong method to answer the question you have.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
by bbjones on Dec 4, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
this is pretty much what i was trying to say
but was mostly just banging my face on the keyboard.
“The only time you get in trouble is when you try to use the wrong method to answer the question you have.” this is my point exactly. when asking if a trade was a good one or not, you are essentially evaluating a GM on his player acquisition skills. in this instance, i think Walt undersold his assets while overstating Rolen. for the package he gave up, i think he could have gotten a better player.
in evaluating the team’s chances to contend, you can also use the other method. hypothetically, “boy, we sure are lucky we got Rolen when we did. he’s leading the league in RBIs and Stewart blew out his shoulder, Roenicke lost his control, and EdE is selling fruit on the side of the road.” in the end, the trade was still a bad decision. the Reds gave up too much and received too little. but it worked out for the best so it blunts the frustration.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 8:26 AM EST up reply actions
"when I worked for a decision analysis firm"
21st century version: “when I wrote on a blog”
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
no way, man!
we used real math!
it was like a sabermetric blog!
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
So by that logic
you’re calling the Dave Parker for Jose Rijo trade one of the worst in Reds history?
I don’t buy it. I think E5 was bad for our current team, a multimillion dollar liability, and was getting passed up on the depth charts by 2 of our younger hitters.
Also, by that logic, it means nothing that Stewart does affects that trade. If you’re evaluating ‘in the now,’ then we kicked ass with Rolen to the tune of 27-13, and the trade is a success. I just don’t see your argument.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 3, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
i wasnt alive when Parker was traded for Rijo
i dont really know the circumstances around that deal. but i do know (although this is debatable) the circumstances around this trade.
and my argument is that the trade can only be properly evaluated by what the players were worth the minute the deal is signed. the fact that we went 27-13 with Rolen is irrelevant.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
Results are completely relevant.
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
and a coincidence
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Where is Madville?
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 4, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Where is Madville?
The new ‘find him game’ sensation sweeping the country…Now in a 22 page booklet…each page more incoherent and confounded than the next.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
i just look for you when we need an eye witness from something that happened a long time ago
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
correction
i was almost 4 when the Reds traded Parker. i still dont know anything about the trade though.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
established stud hitter for 20 year old fireballer with no control and no ability to set up hitters
Think Adam Dunn for Edwin Volquez
who's Edwin Volquez?
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 4, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
i'm an expert in bad typing...
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
except if Dunn was 36 and coming off of a below average offensive season
Definitely a good argument.
Just making an analogue
The A’s were second team to give up on Rijo, so he wasn’t exactly as heralded as even Edinson
They also got Tim Birtsas in that Parker deal
and it was stated that the Reds got two good arms in that deal, unfortunately, both were on Jose Rijo.
Definitely a good argument.
Nope. Sorry, Charlie.
First of all, isn’t it silly to call my reasoning a mistake, leaving YOUR reasoning to thereby be perfect and unapproachable in comparison? I think you mean to say that you don’t think that valuing the trade in a way other than yours is valid, and you make a decent case – but there is a larger truth in that the GM is not in a vacuum.
GMs have scouts, advisers, a manager, coaches, and players to advise them, and the GM largely controls who these people are and how each of them contributes to the decision-making process. If you have assembled a team (even if that team sadly includes Bill Bavasi) that helps you in evaluating talent, the result of that team’s effort is very much a composite of many of that GM’s decisions leading up to that trade. Maybe (for fictional example) Zach Stewart impressed Bavasi, but not Ted Power and Mario Soto. So perhaps Walt was truly weighing the opinions of Power and Soto versus Bavasi’s opinion, rather than personally making the judgment call of what Zach’s career would be based on some minor stats and seeing him in person about 4 times. He might well be saying to himself, “Bill’s had much better luck at evaluating position players than arms, and I’ve really grown to respect Soto’s opinion over this past season. I don’t really have a gut feeling much either way here, so I’m going to trust in Soto’s judgment on this one. He seems really convinced that Zach doesn’t have All-Star potential.”
Do you see what I mean? There is a quite valid methodology in viewing the trade in a larger-than-momentary context, because several big parts of that decision may have been made much earlier, as Walt evaluated his advisers’ opinions, seeing and adapting the value of each adviser’s opinions over time.
In this case, I feel viewing this trade over time can be valid. But you are right in that if Zach Stewart breaks his arm falling out of Farney’s limo at a strip club, that does not make the trade a smarter nor dumber one.
Being a cash poker player, I can attest that the decisions made in a hand of cards are not reasonably evaluated by the outcome of the hand. But over time, seeing how one poker player tends to play can be the most important information one can have when making critical decisions.
"I like your Christ. I do not like your Christians. They are so unlike your Christ." - Mahatma Gandhi
i think we agree more than you think
of course it isnt just the GM’s opinion that goes into evaluating players. he is just the face of the decision-making apparatus. Bavasi, Jocketty, Soto, et. al. decided that it would be best for the team to trade it’s best pitching prospect, starting 3B, and one of it’s best relievers for an older but better 3B. they valued the player received as >/= the players given up.
even if they didnt like Stewart as much as i do, that doesnt matter. im not in the biz. but plenty of people in the biz (talent evaluators, writers, and “anonymous rival GMs”) say Stewart was waaaay too much to give up for Rolen. the market is set by how the other team’s value a player. Rolen was an expensive, aging but good 3B demanding a trade to a team closer to his home. his value in the market was severely depressed because of these factors. Stewart was the team’s best pitching prospect, rocketing through the system and dominating everyone who dared step in against him. his value was higher than it had ever been (and has only risen since the trade, but like i said, that is irrelevant). from what i’ve seen, the Reds sold their players for below market value. regardless of how the players perform from here on out, that fact is immutable.
of course, this says nothing of the most important and damning aspect of this trade, which is that the Reds had no business trading prospects for vets at that time.
your poker analogy is a good one. i dont play, but i think i understand the rules and nuances of the game enough to use it. let’s say i almost have a straight flush and the river card has yet to be turned. i push all-in, betting everything on the chance that that river card is the 3 or 8 of spades. now, the chances of that happening are very slim. it is a very bad play for me to push all-in right now. it is not the process by which i should play poker if i want to continue doing so (i’ll be out of money very soon). turns out im lucky and the 8 flips. i win, but it was still bad process. and regardless of whether i win or lose, it is bad process.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions
I think you're overvaluing a bit here
EdE may have been the “starting 3B”, but he had become worthless – his bat no longer makes up for his horrid defense. Josh Roenicke will be 27, has only pitched 34 innings in the bigs and has been ineffective (5.56 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) – hardly one of the team’s “best relievers”.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
I don't think Strewart will be remembered very long
College closers don’t have much to learn in the minors, and while everyone here is giddy over him becoming a starter, talk about small sample size. He is what he is right now: a set-up guy/closer or a #4 starter.*
*Please see other examples of me predicting things above, like, you know, Homer Bailey is kaput, let’s get Jermaine Dye here right now! In other words, I have lots of opinions and only 80-90% of them are right. Even i can make mistakes….
I know that hurts Charlie more than anyone, but it is, sadly, true. i am not perfect.
ok
but regardless of whether you think im overvaluing Stewart and Roenicke, the point still stands that trades should be evaluated based on the value of the players at the time of the transaction.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
Yeabut
I think we think we have perfect knowledge of this stuff, and we rarely do. Projecting how a player (especially a minor league pitcher) is going to progress is dicey at best even for people whose job it is to evaluate talent, yet we schmoes on the interweb think we have every part of every decision nailed down pat.
Even at that, if Stewart turns into a batting tee, you’ll have as many experts say “See, I told you!” as say “Huh. I never saw that coming.” Which is the right evaluation?
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
i dont think i have perfect knowledge of the stuff
if it turns out that Stewart is a freebaser and the Reds know it, and that’s why they traded him, then yes i would change my mind about it. when new information becomes available you have to be able to reevaluate your stand. but while we the blog-reading public, may never have all the information about the situation, it is the GM’s job to make the right decisions with the information available. Stewart’s future is information that was not available to anyone on July 31, 2009.
as for how Stewart turns out, like i said i think it is irrelevant to evaluating the trade. at the time of the trade (T), Stewart had X value (whatever you may believe that is). Rolen had Y value. the Reds made a good trade if X > Y at time T. those values X and Y have all the player’s projection and probability of collapse and other circumstances rolled into it. Stewart’s uncertainty is part of his value at the time of the trade. what his future holds is information that no one had at the time of the trade, so we can hardly hold anyone accountable for not knowing that. what we can hold them accountable for is understanding the rates of probability of future performance of the players involved.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeabut
You seem pretty certain, and you base it on 2nd hand info from others without all of the info (“talent evaluators, writers, and "anonymous rival GMs")”).
It’s funny. As I’ve gotten older, I’ve become much less certain of what I “know”, and much more certain that others are likely better at their job than I am.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
ok
so set that aside then. forget about assigning values to the players involved. my most important point is that decisions are only properly evaluated based on the information available at the time. so it doesnt matter how Stewart turns out.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
It should
Krivsky made that trade for a reason, and Stewart was part of the deal for a reason. He has to evaluate the trade afterwards to either validate or refute his thought process. Anyone who does evaluation for a living need to do this, or else it’s called “guessing”.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
i dont think so
the process is validated by economic theory. like i said, the uncertainty of Stewart’s and Rolen’s futures are already accounted for in their value that Jocketty assigned them on July 31.
now, i agree that future performance is valuable. maybe there is a hitch in Stewart’s giddyup that no one saw in July, but it shows up next year and he is ruined. but this new information does not affect his value on July 31. it only serves to refine our evaluation process so that later on down the line we catch these things earlier and use that new information to our advantage with future prospects in future markets. but like i said, the new information does not change the information we had on July 31. Jocketty’s performance can only be evaluated by how well he used the information that was available to him to evaluate the player’s involved. if in the future Rolen becomes a meth addict, Jocketty can hardly be faulted for not knowing that.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
But what if the theory is wrong
Or what if the components that make up the value of the traded players are misappropriated?
If I trade you a 2010 Honda Accord for a 2007 Mercedes C-Class straight up based on the information I have at hand, I won’t know if that was a fair trade or not until after the fact because I won’t know if I have all of the information, or at least all of the right information, until after the fact. I know how to evaluate the car sitting in front of me, and I have an idea of how it will age and how quickly it will do so.
But I don’t know. In a year or two or five, I can go back and look at what 2010 Accords and 2007 MBs are still like, and refine my decision-making process. Some of that info will be new (three of the four wheels fall off at 70K miles); but most of it will either back-up or refute what I thought I knew (Hondas never break, MBs are hideously expensive to maintain, etc.).
Hindsight can absolutely make me change my opinion of a decision, and sometimes it should – looking back, I shouldn’t have been quite so upset that Ryan Wagner was included in The Trade, because his peripherals pointed at his lack of command.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
i think we are talking in circles
of course information that comes to light later will affect your decision-making processes. but it cant change the information you had available to you at the time of the decision. if all the information i have available to me says the Accord is a 7 and i trade that for the MB, which all the available information says it’s a 5, then i lose that trade because 7 > 5.
now, if information comes to light later that says the Accord was actually a 4 at the time of the trade, then i need to fix my evaluation process. im not very good at evaluating cars then and i need to get better at that. that is a problem with my mechanical knowledge though (or in baseball, my scouting), not my decision-making capabilities. but if something inherent in the Accord changes in the future from what it was at the time of the trade (say, the head gasket blows at 50K miles) then that doesnt change the fact that at the time of the trade, the Accord was a 7. it just means that over that period of time it changed from a 7 to a 0. sure, you’d like to be a better mechanic and foresee these things before you make the trade, but that is a problem with your mechanical knowledge and not your decision-making skills.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
I think Scrabbles and Petey are in pretty much complete agreement
Regardless of who’s information it is, the relative value of the pieces at the time of the trade determines it’s cleverness or stupidity.
Again, think about THE TRADE. Almost every player involved in that deal (save Felipe Lopez) has flamed out since, so you might call it a wash now. But still, at the time, given the relative value of players involved, it was a dumb trade for Krivsky.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
Oh, and this has been a thoroughly enjoyable thread to read.
Well done everyone
(except Justin)
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
by nycredsfan on Dec 4, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i created this thread dick
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 4, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
I wish they'd kept Brendan Harris
He’s not exactly an all-star, but he’s better than Adam Rosales. And they didn’t get much back for him.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Cash money
Plus it’s well known that Brendans are the handsomest.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 4, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
an interesting fringe
I thought of an interesting fringe of that idea…Let’s enter fictional fairy land for a moment…
Walt thinks Bavasi knows how to pick good, young pitchers. Walt thinks this thought, without ever running a background check on Bavasi to see if this perceived talent of Bavasi’s is valid. It turns out that Bavasi couldn’t pick Bob Gibson out of a team of Mormon 5th graders, but Walt doesn’t catch onto this until 2011.
In this fanciful scenario, you have to judge any player personnel move based on the information at hand at the time of the move – we certainly agree on that (as we do on most things because we’re awesome). But if the information at hand is based on foolhardy trust of the untrustworthy, incomplete information for lack of thoroughness or inventive forethought, or grossly out-weighs the input of one scout over another scout(s), that can play a role. And in that context, I believe that to some extent you can use the results of a trade, in some small part, to judge the worthiness of the trade.
But mostly, it’s all about good decision-making process, as you had said.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 21, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
i disagree, kinda
if Walt is trusting in stupid people or not being thorough, that doesnt excuse making a bad decision. that just make him MORE culpable, if you ask me. in the event of incomplete information though, i still dont think results can affect the judgment, but rather that learning the rest of the information about the state of the market at the time can change our judgment.
the Hernandez signing is a good example of this. at the time, i thought the signing sucked because i thought it was too much money for too little production. i figured there were others catchers out there (like Gregg Zaun) who could have been had for comparable money and were better (even if marginally so). as it turns out, some pretty comparable catchers ended up signing for more money and years. we now have more information about how the catcher market looked at the time of the trade (my assumption about the relative availability of other catchers was wrong) and can now make a better, clearer assessment of the deal. i still dont love it, but it does look better.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 21, 2009 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
Small Sample Size
I thought long and hard before I voted, no I’m not going to tell you what I voted.
I would have kept Roenicknolte and eManuel Lewis, EE could have tried LF in the minors or used him as incentive for a SS or Catcher via a trade. albeit not a very good trading chip at all. It was a risk to take t-virus for that price, and he should have known that he was broken via talking to other managers and owners
BUT, He did do wonders by selling washups like Dunn and Griffey. Yea they got asses in the seats, but we true reds fans know better than to judge him for such a trade. Sorry Slyde, Rolen. Also he did save money keeping said players off teh DL. Did he blow our chances for that week’s worth of games, Yes. I honestly believe that he does a good job at managing Cincinnati’s baseball salary, with all things considered.
Let the flaming ensue.
Start SEEing motorcycles
I dont like the idea of robots sniffing my shoes
This just in, Thom is the official Play-by-play voice of teh Cincinnati Reds.
Woot.
Start SEEing motorcycles
I believe that the quantity of work rarely competes with the quality of work
Therefore I sold my store and have become a consultant.
The pay is good…the hours are killer good.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
I think we can both agree that quanity is an issue when considering unemployment
Then again I’m a chef, so I can always cook at home.
Good pay? Few hours?
Destructor’d
Start SEEing motorcycles
Yes quantity is an issue when one is out of work
That is why it has become so vital to have a back up vocation…in my circumstance e.g. – Bank Robbery.
The hours are not bad, but let me tell that the pay is not all that it is cracked up to be. This is especially true when you have to split the take fairly with your wheel-man (perso), in my case a nervous young Haitian man named Hector.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
hey nycredsfan
ever since you’ve changed your avatar, mi senorita Katie has been a little…friskay.

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
ummmm
he didnt CHANGE is avatar. it was chosen for him BY ME because he lost a bet.
dammit. i was really hoping Katie Couric would be a humiliating avatar and everyone would point and laugh at him and would then turn to me and congratulate me and pat me on the back. somewhere ’tHan is playing Taps on his failhorn for me.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 4, 2009 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
because of THIS:

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
question
i have gone 38 hours without sleep, should i go to sleep or see how long i can keep going?
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
Both.
"I like your Christ. I do not like your Christians. They are so unlike your Christ." - Mahatma Gandhi
i pussed out
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 4, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm only slightly disappointed.
Mainly because of the Taveras signing. The Rolen trade looks great if we were a team that needed only one piece to get over the hump, and I like what Rolen brings to the table as far as experience, talent and leadership. But since we’re a few peces shy of contending, the Rolen trade only looks average.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:44 PM EST reply actions
However
Trading away Griffey and Dunn was good in retrospect. Was really disappointed initially about Griffey(since I own two of his jerseys, one home and one red alternate) but Dunn was a smart move cause for what Dunn could give us(either a strikeout or a home run) he was a liability in other areas of the game.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
This Rolen guy sure seems to have a stick up his ass.

"I like your Christ. I do not like your Christians. They are so unlike your Christ." - Mahatma Gandhi
found out tonight that he was a Dodger fan growing up
and that he doesn’t give a shit about the 1990 Reds. Those may not have been his words, but that’s what I heard.
Definitely a good argument.
Just a Midwestern kid wanting to play for a home team, huh?
Fuck his Hershisher crush.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 4, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
He lied to get out of Canada.
I think he deserves a pass here. After all, it’s Canada.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
His parents go to ALL his games and he is from Jasper.
That had EVERYTHING to do with why Rolen came here.
I really think he wants to retire a Red. If we gave him a $5 mil a year Wafefield-esk deal I would be cool with that.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 5, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
I know this is true
I was more just bitter that he didn’t really care about the 1990 team. It’s a shame cuz this 2010 team is gonna need a lot of the 1990 magic.
Definitely a good argument.
you mean cocaine?
the 1990 team had lots of cocaine
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Now that's an accusation
I’d never heard any such stories about the Reds of that era. What are you basing this on?
I may be late to the party, but I have something to say, dammit.
I am somewhat dissatisfied with Walt. I don’t know how much is Walt and how much is Dusty, but it seems like this organization is not only incapable of finding creative solutions to the holes in the roster, but isn’t particularly interested in trying to find them. Find a mediocre veteran, call it good. That’s not going to work here, because we didn’t happen upon the best hitter in baseball with a 13th round draft pick, and turn a 29 year old pitcher with a career 4.83ERA in to a Cy Young winner.
The Taveras contract was awful, and anybody with a brain saw it at the time. It was, in fact, the perfect confluence of GM stupidity and Manger stupidity; Taveras is exactly the kind of player that Dusty has shown a complete inability to properly evaluate in the past.
The Rolen deal was, at best, an upgrade from slightly-below-average to above-average-but-often-injured. That’s a terrible trade when you’re a team with several roster holes, financial problems, you had to pay significantly more salary to make the deal, and you gave up the only cheap cost-controlled guys that changed hands. It showed a complete lack of understanding of where this team is at, and what it should be trying to accomplish.
The Hernandez deal was terrible, too. The Reds spend the 3rd highest percentage of payroll on the catcher position, and got the 21st highest OPS out of their catcher position. Reds’ pitchers had a better ERA when Hanigan pitched, and Hanigan threw out a significantly higher percentage of basestealers than Hernandez (and, for the record, I think Catchers’ ERA is mostly crap, except when used to dispel the erroneous notion that Hernandez “handles the pitching staff” better than Hanigan). Shitty, shitty trade, and I said that at the time.
That’s three BIG negatives in my book, and the only real positives were guys like Rhodes and Gomes; cheap, limited players who can be valuable if properly utilized. Unfortunately, we have Dusty, so players are pretty much guaranteed to be improperly utilized.
So, no creativity. The expensive creative moves are terrible. The few cheap creative moves that do work out are unable to be translated into value on the field because of your Manager.
Let’s just say I don’t see the rest of Jocketty’s tenure going well. When Krivsky was hired, I wanted Logan White. When Jocketty was hired, I wanted Logan White. I still want Logan White. Let’s see what happens if a team ever hires him. It certainly won’t be the Reds, as they’re clearly happy with veteran retreads both on the field and in the front office at this point.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
Let's not forget
The hernandez trade rid the Reds of that horrific Freel contract.
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
His contract was about half of Hernandez's.
Although, I think the O’s threw in cash to even up the salaries.
However, if the Reds had traded Freel 2-3 years ago, as I suggested 2-3 years ago, they wouldn’t have had to rid themselves of that horrific contract.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
but Freel was Waynes, not Walt's blunder
maybe we need a GM without a W in his name.
Oh yeah…

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
Is it just me
or does this guy look like one of the old Soviet Premiers?
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
Brylcreme - alittle dab 'l do ya
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
?
. Unfortunately, we have Dusty, so players are pretty much guaranteed to be improperly utilized.
Arthur Rhodes revitalized career called and wants to know why you hate it. Right now, Chris Dickerson is on the line wanting to know why you’re against him too. Johnny Gomes impending new contract, which is going to make him wealthy soon enough stopped by and asked if Dusty mis-used him too.
Between wanting to keep Ryan Freel of all people so we could have seen the great Craig Tatum all season and the constant hatin’ on Dusty, I’m not sure I personally think much of the critique. Then again, bet if the Reds were managed by God, they would have won 82 games. No talent plus injuries = mediocrity
Bwaaah?
Rhodes had a 2.04 ERA in 2008, it’s not like we pulled him out of nowhere. He’s very obviously a LOOGY, and I’m not willing to give Dusty a ton of credit for properly using a left-handed reliever to get left-handed batters out. That’s fucking basic.
And, I actually like Dickerson a lot. I’m just confused as to why he got only 300 plate appearances while guys like Darnell McDonald and Laynce Nix patrolled Left Field. Dusty’s handling of the LF situation, giving 448 AB’s to veterans who suck and only 299 AB’s to a young player who is good, doesn’t speak well for his ability to evaluate talent. It does the opposite.
Gomes had 180 AB’s against RHP’s, and 101 against LHP’s. If Dusty utilized him properly, that ratio would be reversed. Gomes is a career .224/.311/.448 hitter against righties, and .274/.369/.517 against lefties. A Dickerson/Gomes platoon in LF would have been a perfect match of skills, but Dusty preferred to play his stupid hunches, and we ended up with one of the worst LF situations in baseball.
I didn’t want to keep Ryan Freel. I wanted to trade him 2 years ago. Last offseason, he should have been traded for any player in baseball making league minimum, not for a bad player making twice as much money.
I agree that the Reds’ talent is mediocre, but that doesn’t excuse poor managerial decisions.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
but as i was told by a pare of colleagues
stats don’t mean shit, because they don’t give a 100% correct prediction, hunches are much better, and we who don’t play the game just don’t get it…
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
did you even watch any games last year?
1. Rhodes wasn’t used as a LOOGY
2. Dickerson sucked at teh begining of the year lossing his job to Nix, was good, then got hurt
3. How many more RHP than LHP are there in baseball…..ALOT. Most would argue that he should have had more PT against RHP because that would mean he is getting more plate appearances overall.
I am convinced you don’t watch baseball and just read Baseball America.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 6, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
WOW only person to vote very satisfied
This thread covers most of the things Walt has done……but you left out one BIG IMPORTANT thing that he did when he took over that makes me like him alot. He left not only left Krivsky’s scouting and player development guys in place, he convinced them all to stay. In fact I bet they had more responsibilites after he got here because Krivsky seemed like a micromanager. Now let’s look at some of the moves
GREAT MOVES:
1. Moving Dunn/Griffey and getting Owings and Masset. Dunn wasn’t even offered arb as a Type A. No way Krivsky could have pulled this off.
2. Freel+C prospects 4 Hernandez cash ……This deal was awesome. He essentially upgraded a pathetically weak orgaqnization position with an above average player for like 2 million. (sunk cost + 2 mil C prospects = upgrade) Remember how everyone was dogging Ramon and his work ethic when we got him. Definitely did a great job of buying low. Oh yeah and what did Farney do last year. S
3. Rolen trade – As everyone has blasted this from day one, I have loved it.(except when he got the concussion, I thought we may be fucked). He took a sunk cost in EE and upgraded his postion defensively and offensively at teh cost of 2 B prospects. Stewart may have been our best pitching prospect, but he from my perspective he may be a sell high candidate. His stock probably couldn’t get any higher. Also Roenicke has a great arm and all, but he is also kinda old. They are both obviously good prospects, but we had to give up something if Toronto was going to take EE and some of Rolen’s salary.
4. Not trading Bailey – How good is this looking now?
5. Aggressively promoting Stubbs
6. Weathers trade – enough said
7. Gomes
8. Nix
9. Rhodes
10. Trading Gonzo
Bad moves
1. Taveras
2. Offering Weather arb
3. Lincoln contract
Feel free to rip me a new one. Building a winner takes time and I think Walt has us moving in the right right direction.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 5, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions
on Dunn/griffey/masset/owings/walt/wayne
your statement is a bit misguided. I feel like the Lohse for Maloney deal, and the Conine for Hasley deals fly in the face of your argument. He turned around to free agents who the Reds weren’t going to keep (or in Conine’s place was going to retire) for useful mid-level prospects who may turn into serviceable players.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 5, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
BS
Krivsky tried to move Dunn a year before at the deadline remember….fail. Also, I don’t think he would have had enough clout with Bob to pay for Griffey’s salary to get Masset. Lohse for Maloney was a solid deal. Lohse was a pretty damn good pitcher after that trade, so that was a value for value.
Don’t mention the Conine trade, any GM can trade trash at the deadline.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 5, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
he may not have found anything he wanted
he wasn’t under as much pressure to move Dunn in 2008 because Cincinnati held an option on Dunn for 2009.
You are right, for some reason I thought he traded Conine for Heasly, but instead he traded him for Sean Henry. I apologize about my faulty memory.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
Should I mention he shouldn't have traded Dunn?
Dunn should STILL be playing left-field
Great Moves?
1. How is getting Owings for Dunn a “great” move? Owings was terrible this year, 5.34ERA/1.59WHIP. Dunn was fantastic at the plate, .267/.398/.529, and our leftfielders were 13th in the NL in OPS, .003 from 15th. If the player you gave up was awesome, the player you guy sucked, and you didn’t adequately replace the guy you gave up, isn’t that the definition of a terrible move? Also, the D’Backs didn’t offer Dunn arbitration because they were under orders from ownership to cut salary, and couldn’t take even a small risk that he might accept it. That move had nothing to do with their evaluation of Dunn.
2. Walt didn’t upgrade a “pathetically weak” position, and he certainly didn’t do it with an “above-average player.” Ryan Hanigan had the same OPS+ as Hernandez, he made about 1/20 as much money, the pitchers were better with Hanigan behind the plate, and Hanigan threw out a significantly higher percentage as basestealers. The only thing the Hernandez acquisition did was take our catcher position from bad and cheap to bad and expensive. The Reds spent the 3rd highest percentage of their payroll on the catcher position, and got the 21st highest OPS from the catcher position. Terrible move.
3. All the Rolen trade did was take our 3B situation from slightly below average, young, and fairly cheap to slightly above average, old, expensive, and often-injured. And now, they’re talking about dumping Harang, Arroyo or Phillips to cut salary. Perhaps a multi-million dollar commitment for a marginal upgrade at one position has something to do with the dire financial straits they’re in. I thought it was a bad move at the time. If they knew they were going to have to slash payroll this offsesason when they made the move, it’s absolutely fucking indefensible.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
while i agree with most of what you said
Adam Dunn is not an “awesome” ballplayer. though his bat is elite, his glove is equally terrible.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
You act like resources are infinite
1. It was a great move if we were also not going to keep Dunn for 15 mil a year, which is what he would have got in arbitration. We obviously did not replace his production at the plate, but we got better than a compensation pick. I wouldn’t mind still having Dunn on this team, but ownership decided to move on so you have to get the best value for him and we did.
2. Fangraphs has Ramon’s performance last year at 2.1 mil in value. He made 8 mil, but we only cost us 2 mil net. How is that you ask? Well we traded Freel who made 3 mil(sunk cost) and Baltimore gave us around 3 mil. So we got about even value which is awesome, because I remember Bako, Larue, Ross, etc. Hanigan is obviously a valuable guy fangraphs had him at 4.8 mil, but he was NOT a sure thing heading into 2009. I think have that depth at catcher for next year.
3. They aren’t slashing payroll so stop freaking out. For a net 6.25 mil towards the 2010 payroll Scott Rolen is far and away our best option to improve the club. And is case you haven’t noticed EE was fucking horrible last year. Rolen was a HUGE upgrade.
I am just as frustrated as everyone else that Krivsky hamstrung our payroll, but I think Walt has done a great job of upgrading the club with limited resources. Now what will he do in 2011 when he has money? If its more Willy T’s we are screwed.
3. T
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 5, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not the one evaluating moves as though resources are infinite.
1. Dunn wasn’t going to accept arbitration. And, no, we did not do better than a compensation pick. Owings was terrible, Castillo was terrible, and Buck was terrible. A compensation pick is possibly not terrible, which is better than 3 different flavors of terrible. And, no, ownership didn’t get the best value for him, because they waited until after the June deadline to trade him. Since the D’Backs put in a claim, they had exclusive negotiating rights with the Reds. If they were going to trade him, the should have done it before the deadline.
2. You don’t understand how these trades work, do you? We traded Freel’s contract for Hernandez’s contract, meaning that we assumed Hernandez’s $8 million for ‘09 plus the $1mil buyout for his ’10 option. Your accounting is not even close to correct. With the money the Orioles gave us, he cost us about $6mil, which is almost 3 times what he was worth per fangraphs, who doesn’t count his bad defense against his value. That’s the opposite of awesome.
3. We’ll see if they cut payroll. I’m willing to bet money that they won’t add to it. Rolen was a moderate upgrade, but probably not worth $6.5mil to a team with a ton of other holes and several 3B prospects close to Major League-ready. Lost in all the fawning over Rolen by certain segments of Reds’ fans and media is the fact that he wasn’t a great hitter for us last year. .270/.364/.401 is OK, but defintely not worth $11mil. And certainly not worth $11mil if he’s only playing 100 games next season. Which is all he’ll give you.
Krivsky hurt us with the Cordero deal, but that was a result of the “win now” mandate that ownership gave him. The entire front office is in denial about where this club really is. Walt has not done “a great job” upgrading the team, they’re worse now than when he took over. And, if history has taught us anything, in 2011, when he has money, he’ll spend it on more Willy Taverases. That’s all he did when he had money to burn before 2009.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
UnBLeevable
1. We would not have gotten a compensation pick because we could not afford to offer him compensation. If we accepted, we would have been totaled screwed as far as payroll. Alot of guys accepted arb last year because we were in teh middle of the worst financial crisis since the depression.
2. How come you are not subtracting Freel’s salary from what we paid Hernandez? And if Hanigan was your starter, who was your back-up and how much would you pay him. Considering it would probably be a worthless Bako/Blanco type we should probably subtract that salary too.
3. Fangraphs says Rolen was worth $17 mil total last year. And has not posted a value of less than 10.4 mil in the past 4 years. The lowest amount of games he has played inteh past 4 years was 112, and that was the year we was still worth 10.4 mil. SO I don’t understand why you are so worried about this.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 6, 2009 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
UnDaveable
1. We spent $6.25mil on Willy Taveras, $6mil on Ramon Hernandez, $4mil on Mike Lincoln, and $2mil on Jerry Hairston last offseason. Don’t tell me we couldn’t have offered Dunn arbitration. We obviously could have. Stop making shit up.
2. Because we didn’t pay Freel, the Orioles did. And the Orioles didn’t pay Hernandez, we did. I was assessing the actual impact to the Reds payroll. You were adding and subtracting numbers randomly to make the deal look good. If Hanigan was my starter, I could have taken James Skelton in the Rule 5 draft or traded for John Jaso. Both are making League Minimum, and both would have been at least as good as Hernandez.
3. I’m worried about it because we had a guy worth $7mil per fangraphs who was making significantly less than that, and we paid $6 mil plus prospects to get a marginal upgrade with no upside. In the best-case scenario, Rolen is worth $9mil more than EE, and makes $6mil more. In the worst case, Rolen’s age catches up to him, he declines offensively, and they’re roughly similar players with EE being $6mil cheaper and 8 years younger. The upside of the deal gets us to .500 and hamstrings our budget to make any other moves. There’s no upside to the Rolen trade from our end. That’s the problem.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
I am done arguing with you
1. I like how you added multiple year contracts to impact one year’st eam salary figure to try and make a point. (2009 Willy make 2.25 mil, Lincoln 1.5, and you still aren’t subtracting Freel’s salary and the cost of a league min catcher from Ramon’s salary)
2. Wow so you would replace Ramon’s production without spending money or giving up prospects. What do you do for a living.. work as a political consultant?
3. Age at nothing but a number…..Rolen >>>>>>>>>>EE
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 6, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
Millionth time you dinged Hernandez, but who exactly your back-up? Ryan Freel
Why do fans love Hanigan so much if the organization does not?
The Dunn trade
This is a well-worn path, but you have to acknowledge that he was in the last half-year of his contract when he was traded. Getting a an MLB-ready #5 starter (and RHP PH power bat), back-up catcher/utility guy and possible dark horse pitching prospect is a pretty good haul, certainly better than what the Reds would have received with a compensation pick had Dunn declined arbitration. My problem with that move is how they re-allocated the money they would have paid Dunn. He didn’t have enough value to re-sign at all costs, but they went and spent FA money on a bunch of zeroes.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 7, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
more from Dave.
I couldn’t vote very unless Walt got rid of Taveras AND made the trade that either a) fixed SS or b) got the big bat.
But, the true grade on the Rolen trade will only be determined by a complex mathematical formula that mainly looks like this:
2/3 R > 1/3 Ro
where R = Rolen and Ro = Rosales
If I have to see Rosales more than 1/3 of the time next season, then that trade stinks
Pole Reflection
It seems we are pretty down the middle with Walt, not being overly enamored or overly dissatisfied with him.
Pretty much what i expected it to be.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
I'm still of the opinion that we need to wait and see.
If the Reds make the playoffs this year, we’ll all be calling him a flipping genius. Sure, it’s a longshot, but stranger things have happened.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
Are you really Carl Lindner?
I won’t tell anyone – Promise
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
Carl can use a computer?
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
His assistant types in what he tells her
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
Hell I read that at the Greyhound station last month...
I guess I’m not the only bus rider at RR.
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
that doens't even begin to make since in response to jch's question
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 8, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Does too
At the Bus station in the men;s room scratched into the stall divider was written:
Jeremy like watch hisself in his bathroom mirror
ergo it seemed to make great sense to me .
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
I didn't know you were Polish
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by 




























