:D

END is still only 22, two full seasons in AAA might do him good, or this more likely makes him very tradeable, esp. if he plays well in AAA this season

that’ll shut ’em up. Johnny Unitas never complained!!

They were predicting that we’d get socked, but we didn’t get any snow. A lot of wind, but the snow fell south of us.

is dangerously ridiculous. i like prospects as much as the next guy, but Rolen is a solid 3-win 3B and END is a 22-year-old man-child that cant take a walk and has an arm at 3B wilder than EdE’s. even given the difference in salaries, Rolen is clearly the better option.

He played in just 56 games in 2005. Since then he’s appeared in 142, 112, 115, and 128 games. I see no reason to expect that anything is distinctly different next year that wasn’t an issue over the last three years. Sure, he might get hurt and miss the whole season. Or he might play 130-140. I (by which I mean ZiPS and CHONE) forecast him for 114 games next season, which would be the 2nd lowest of his 2006-2010 stretch. I don’t think we’re being overly optimistic here.
-j

that FanPost is dead and buried, so it will be easier to continue it here.

I thought of an interesting fringe of that idea…Let’s enter fictional fairy land for a moment…

Walt thinks Bavasi knows how to pick good, young pitchers. Walt thinks this thought, without ever running a background check on Bavasi to see if this perceived talent of Bavasi’s is valid. It turns out that Bavasi couldn’t pick Bob Gibson out of a team of Mormon 5th graders, but Walt doesn’t catch onto this until 2011.

In this fanciful scenario, you have to judge any player personnel move based on the information at hand at the time of the move – we certainly agree on that (as we do on most things because we’re awesome). But if the information at hand is based on foolhardy trust of the untrustworthy, incomplete information for lack of thoroughness or inventive forethought, or grossly out-weighs the input of one scout over another scout(s), that can play a role. And in that context, I believe that to some extent you can use the results of a trade, in some small part, to judge the worthiness of the trade.

But mostly, it’s all about good decision-making process, as you had said.

and my response:

i disagree, kinda. if Walt is trusting in stupid people or not being thorough, that doesnt excuse making a bad decision. that just make him MORE culpable, if you ask me. in the event of incomplete information though, i still dont think results can affect the judgment, but rather that learning the rest of the information about the state of the market at the time can change our judgment.

 the Hernandez signing is a good example of this. at the time, i thought the signing sucked because i thought it was too much money for too little production. i figured there were others catchers out there (like Gregg Zaun) who could have been had for comparable money and were better (even if marginally so). as it turns out, some pretty comparable catchers ended up signing for more money and years. we now have more information about how the catcher market looked at the time of the trade (my assumption about the relative availability of other catchers was wrong) and can now make a better, clearer assessment of the deal. i still dont love it, but it does look better.

the initial trade is much like a bad burn. it hurts, and it was stupid of you to be playing with fire. but this new contract extension is like a big ol’ tub of ointment. it doesnt change the fact that you got burned, nor does it change the fact that you shouldnt be playing with fire, but it does make the burn feel better.

make the original trade look less goofy. If they were planning this all along, anyway.

My main objection to the Rolen trade was that it seemed to be a “win now” move for a team that wasn’t close to winning now. But with the extension, it’s no longer a “win now” move. Theoretically, at least.