3 Way Trade, What Do You Think?
Hello everyone, I am Bobby, I come from Amazin Avenue, the SB Nation Mets site. I posted a 3 way trade including the Mets, Dodgers, and Reds over there and I got a lot of feedback. I would like a Reds fan perspective of the trade (I have also joined the Dodgers SB Nation site and I will post this there too) so please comment on the trade and let me know what you think. You don't have to join Amazin Avenue, just comment here.
Here is the link to the article:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/18/1207861/3-way-trade-i-thought-of-what-do
Also please vote in the poll. Thanks.
1 recs |
60 comments
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Comments
Never heard of Reese Havens. How good is he?
As good as Ethier is, Phillips, Alonso, and Harang is a lot to give up. No interest in Castillo.
I don't know, I didn't vote here or on Amazin Avenue
but the people at AA who said it waas a bad trade were mostly saying the Mets made out like bandits.
Some people thought Mejia (Mejia is our top pitching prospect, probably will turn out like…. uh….. I don’t know who but some starting pitcher who is a fireballer but needs to work on his control and if that happens can be an ace) and Havens were too much to give up but I think if we got Harang and Phillips it would be worth it.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Dec 19, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Reese Havens is a guy we drafted in 2008. According to Baseball America:
Coming off a strong showing in the Cape Cod League last summer when he hit .314 with five home runs, Havens positioned himself to be one of the top middle infielders in this draft class. Steady and durable, Havens has been a fixture in the middle of the diamond for the Gamecocks since his freshman year. His consistency in always being in the lineup parallels his consistent improvement offensively and defensively every season since arriving in Columbia. Drafted out of high school by the Rockies in the 29th round, Havens has improved his range, hands and agility and now has the defensive ability and arm strength to stay at shortstop in the professional ranks. He makes up for his lack of foot speed with proper routes to the ball and advanced instincts. At the plate, Havens changed his hand position this season, moving them lower to an unconventional location around the bellybutton. Scouts have split opinions on his new batting style, but he he has hit for better power and average and leads off for a strong South Carolina lineup. He has great makeup and is a prototype “baseball player” with all the intangibles.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Dec 19, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
I would only consider this deal if Dudsy was thrown in on the deal.
Chris was a guy that ... was heavily misunderstood.. the only guys that knew Chris and knew how good of a heart he had, how kind he was, how gentle he was, how soft of a heart he had, were the guys in our locker room, the guys who were close to him, his family." — Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer
Reds can get very similar stats as Ethier from Gomes
Gomes wOBA: .373 for ‘09, Andre’s = .375
I mean, sure, Gomes could be a relative fluke, in which case I wouldn’t mind throwing Heisey into the mix…and Heisey is a plus defender (right?) and I’d like to see the Reds try the Mariner’s way of doing things.
As much as I like high-OBP SS’s with names straight out of American Psycho, I’d prefer they do it above A-league before I start salivating. And Belisario is certainly fun-looking chaff, Burton-esque chaff…but all the same, chaff. I don’t think the bullpen is what’s keeping Los Amazings out of the playoffs, even if y’all apparently gave a 40-year-old Japanese dude 27 innings last year.
The Reds give up 3 of their, oh, lets say 8 most valuable players for someone who is marginally better than the (breakout factor)/probability of bust) of an in-house option and a free agent. The Dodgers don’t really gain anything for next year when they’re trying to make their big push while Manny is still around and the infield hasn’t completely withered away.
I mean, yeah, the Mets win out, and that’s wonderful. But neither other team has anything to show for it. I’m afraid it’s time to go back to the drawing board
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
And if you're like "Cy didn't even mention Luis Castillo"
well, you’re goddam right I’m not going to mention a waste to the Reds. This is baseball, not horse-trading and I rely on whatever God he believes in that Walt knows to check the teeth
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Dec 19, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
rec the attitude
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 19, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
nah, not a good enough trade for the Reds
castillo’s old and even if reese turns out good, giving up 2 established major leaguers and a plus prospect is way too much
Uh, no.
So, the Reds lose power, defense, a good SP and a trade chip that could be used to fill a real need in the future for what? Not much from what I see. Mets win, everyone else loses. No thanks.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
Piss-poor return for the Reds.
Creates a major hole in the rotation
downgrades us significantly at 2B from a position of strength to a weakness
Reese hit decently at high-A. A lot of those guys end up working at auto dealerships.
Ethier is a lefty, leaving the middle of the order lefty-heavy with Votto-Bruce-Ethier.
Ethier sucks defensively.
Instead, the Reds could sign Jonny Gomes, who’s a righty who might provide similar numbers from the right side. That would cost them roughly $2.3M and none of these 3 studs.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
Wow, I think it is kind of funny how these results are so different from Amazin Avenue
I think part of it is that you guys don’t want to accept the fact that your team needs to shred payroll and try to rebuild for a while.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
I think you are overestimating how much payroll the Reds need to shred
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
I think the Rolen deal just cleared quite a bit.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
accept the fact?
you seem so sure that you know our team better than we would. sure it would be nice to shed some payroll, but giving up a ton of talent for not much back would be a poor way to do it.
Well you know, a lot of times a team is probably best suited to enter a rebuilding phase but the fans refuse to accept it
Take it from a Mets fan. Everyone I talk to about the Mets says they should go on a spending spree for major free agents but ideally this would be a pretty good time to start trading some guys away. Of course the fans don’t want to sacrifice the next few years to get better in the future because fans want to see the team win now.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Dec 19, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
I'll repeat sharks idea here.
The trade you have proposed does nothing to help the Reds rebuild nor does it help them short-term. We are not blind to our team being shitty. We just recognize a bad trade for our team when we see one.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Dec 19, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
It's not that the fans refuse to accept it.
It’s that the front office has refused to accept it for the past 10 years. They should have blew it up in the middle of last year, but instead they traded their best pitching prospect for Scott Rolen. Trading Harang while his trade value is the worst and trading a former 7th overall pick who is pretty much a lock to make the majors doesn’t constitute rebuilding. That’s getting nothing for something, and doesn’t help the team now or in the future.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 19, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
be that as it may
I’m not sure that applies here. I will agree that the general fan usually resists any sort of long-term plan, but that’s not why I don’t like this trade. We should be able to get much more for Phillips and Alonso than Ethier and a sketchy-decent prospect. And believe me, you’re barking up the wrong tree because I’m of the opinion that the Reds should stop making stupid plays to get over .500 and be more patient with their prospects than they have.
I never said it was your or Reds fans or anyone specifically
I just meant people in general
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Dec 19, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
ok I misunderstood then, we are in agreement
you can probably understand why I might have thought that though
Yes, we know that.
If you took the time to search this site with the word “rebuilding” and read a few dozen comments or posts, you’d see that your comment was not relevant. There ain’t much denial here.
I never said it was your or Reds fans or anyone specifically
Were we to assume you meant Mariners fans while posting that on a Reds site while talking with Reds fans?
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 20, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
"I think it is kind of funny how these results are so different from Amazin Avenue"
I don’t. :-)
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I'm not sure how taking on Luis Castillo
who is signed through 2011, would be a rebuilding move.
Moreover, the Reds have the talent to compete in 2011 and the financial flexibility to afford paying Phillips and Harang at salaries that are roughly commensurate with their value. This trade would require the Reds to part with two, possibly three, essential pieces of that 2011 team – the team’s most well-rounded player who plays excellent up-the-middle defense, a front-of rotation starter and a possible future starting 1B or future centerpiece to a team-solidifying trade. In return, the Reds get a bullpen arm (Belasario), 1+ WAR downgrade (and older) second-baseman and a good, cost-controlled corner-outfielder who plays a position where the Reds have an abundance of cost-controlled players: Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes (maybe), Chris Heisey, Wladimir Balentien and Todd Frazier. The trade would be considerably more appealing if it included a close-to-MLB-ready shortstop prospect.
The salary relief would be nice, but the Reds aren’t the Pirates. They’re well-positioned to compete in 2011 if they don’t blow it and this trade would wipe out three of the admittedly short list of smart acquisitions the Reds have made in the last decade. I would wager the cost-savings would be largely offset by the lack of fan confidence caused both by trading two very popular players and setting back the time horizon for a competitive season further into its second decade.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 19, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
Actually Belisario goes to the Mets
You guys get Reese Havens, who while he isn’t close to the bigs, will probably be a very good shortstop or second baseman by 2012.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Dec 19, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
We give up a 2B in his prime and one of our top 3 prospects in this deal and get a 2B who hit .247/.361/.422 in A-ball last year. How is that rebuilding for the Reds? Take Yonder out of the deal and we’ll talk.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 19, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think Alonso is the main sticking point
If the Reds have evaluated their holdings over the next season and decide they just don’t have the money or available talent to put together a contender in 2011, it’s time to trade Harang, Arroyo or Phillips and probably at least two of the three. But it would be silly to work at cross-purposes by trading away one of their 3 best prospects in the process — and add a quasi-rebuilding piece (Ethier) where they already have a logjam.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 19, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Right
I think most Reds fans understand the fact that we’re going to have to trade Alonso eventually, and are okay with it. Just not in a deal like this.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 19, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Seems to be the consensus in the Rolen thread
that Alonso will be traded in due time.
He’s only had 380 or so PAs over what’s amounted to half an injury shortened season split between ages 21 and 22. In that year of professional play, he’s already put up a respectable .291/.376/.459 line – basically identical numbers to Votto, with inferior defense. Which makes him the definition of a tradeable, “blocked” prospect, except that I think he has room for some improvement on his minor league resume.
In my mind, Votto in LF and Alonso @ 1B still seems like the optimal configuration for 2011, but it all depends on how high the perceived value of Alonso is with repect to Francisco, Frazier, Heisey and Wlad after this season. Whoever they can the the best return for they should trade, with the proviso that there’s someone left behind who can approximate the value of whatever the traded player could be expected to produce in 2011.
If Frazier and Heisey burst onto the scene and claim LF this year, the decision the decision on trading Alonso is pretty easy. If there’s still no clear solution to LF in 2011, it gets murkier – especially if Bruce doesn’t improve this season.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 19, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
My mistake
That makes the deal marginally better on a talent basis, but no better given time considerations. The Reds fanbase is pretty exasperated and I think this trade would be a huge setback for the goal of being competitive within 2 years.
There’s no reason the Reds, before Opening Day 2011, can’t acquire a decent shorstop and decide on an internal solution for LF that might cost a several million less than Ethier over the next two years and be about as productive — while retaining Phillips, Harang, and Alonso.
It’s not a terrible trade on merit, but this team doesn’t need to be nuked. And if it did, they wouldn’t give up Yonder so easily.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 19, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
so...
you think the Reds should “rebuild for a while” by trading their best prospect in Alonso?
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 19, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
As much as I contributed the sheer outrage over a quixotic trade idea
I think this is why other fanbases are scared of RedReporter. Well, and the swearing. And the catjacks
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
dont forget the intimidating sexual charisma
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 19, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
you mean...

"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
oooooo you touch my tra-la-la
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 20, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
i thought you meant

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
It's hilarious how larger market fans think smaller market teams only exist to cut payroll.
Why don’t we just release everybody and pay minor leaguers the minium? Then we’d win!
I blame Pittsburgh for this thought process ...
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Dec 20, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
It's Saturday night
and I’m a loser, so let’s have a look at a ridiculous internet baseball trade:
The Reds give up:
Aaron Harang: The Reds’ #1/2 starter. He’s coming off an injury shortened season, but was still worth every one of the $11M they paid him last year. His trade value has probably never been lower. He’s got one more guaranteed year on his contract.
Brandon Phillips: One of the top 3 or 4 2B in the league. He’s owed less than $19M over the next two seasons; he’s been worth $27.5M over the previous 2.
Yonder Alonzo: The Reds’ top draft pick a year ago, and already considered the #2 prospect in the system.
The Reds get:
Andre Ethier: A good hitting, crappy fielding RF. Of course, the Reds already have a good hitting, Gold Glove caliber RF, so he’d be shifted to LF; the same position the Reds’ ready now #1 prospect is going to play until 2B opens up, and the same as the Reds’ about a year away #4 prospect is going to end up at. In fact, if there’s anything the Reds don’t really need long term, it’s a crappy fielding LF. Ethier just finished the first of his 4 arb years (he was a super-2), so his salary is going to escalate quickly. In a nutshell, he’s probably what Alonzo will be in 5 years, except alot more expensive.
Luis Castillo: Ugh. He’s older than Phillips, is a worse hitter and much worse fielder, and plays the same position as the Reds’ #1 prospect. He’ll make $12M over the next two seasons, he’s been worth less than $10M the last two, and will be 34 next year.
Reese Havens: Couldn’t tell you a thing about him, which is significant. Last year, he was a 22 year old who didn’t exactly tear up high-A ball. The Mets’ #7 prospect.
So the Reds give up 2 important pieces over the next year or two (Harang has a team option for $12.75M for ‘10, which I’d think they’ll pick up if he does anything at all this year) plus their #2 prospect (who may be ready by the trade deadline) for a decent OF who’s going to rapidly get expensive (negating the cost savings in the trade), a 34-year old salary dump, and a light-hitting middle-infielder who’s at least 3 years away.
You’re right. We’re not looking at this correctly.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
I'd love to have Ethier and Bruce in our corners
The price being asked here is of course absurd. But Ethier has put together two very good years in a row and is in his prime. If Alonso plays for us as well as Ethier has, I’ll be very pleased. There’s a good chance he can hit as well, but even though Ethier’s a below average RF I don’t see Alonso covering as much ground.
In a vacuum, sure
As you said, though the price in the trade is absurd, and if Ethier continues to play the way he has, he’s going to get very expensive very quickly, when the Reds possibly have in-house solutions who make the league minimum.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
2007 makes me smile
salary: 4.3 million
worth: 21.5 million
things like that make me realize I’m a capitalist.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
I'd love to have Ethier,
but Castillo, though he has some value, has ALOT of holes for his contract price, more of a salary dump on a good trade than a principal, and this kid from LA sounds less than stellar. Not close to enough return for two key players and a blue chip prospect. Also, no way I see LA doing this either; they’re nowhere near rebuilding, and aren’t gonna dump a still cheap key contributor like Ethier for prospects any time soon.
"It seems like we're not hitting because we're not getting hits." -- Dusty Baker
Do. Not. Want.
Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. A f*ckin' playground for the cocks*ckers.
-Lee Elia on Cubs fans
by Farneyismycopilot on Dec 20, 2009 1:27 PM EST reply actions
No one here seems to like this trade for the Reds except Bobby.
Does Bobby = Bill Bavasi?
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
There's only one explanation for this so far
Bobby = Steve Phillips.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 20, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
nah
as far as I can tell, all of the players involved with the deal are currently with the franchise that would be dealing them. That rules out a Steve Phillips suggested deal.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Reds rule
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 20, 2009 5:15 PM EST reply actions
no no no
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