Reds offensive ranks vs NL in 2009 by Position
So I am getting pretty stoked on the work that Kevin Dame is doing over at The Hardball Times in his "Visual Baseball" series where he interprets Baseball Data with graphics. In his most recent article he represented the 2010 Mariners hitters vs the rest of the leagues starters in OPS. I liked the idea and how it was represented. I tweaked a few things though and decided to just use the position for each team and ranked them by OPS+ since it adjusts for the park one plays in. Here are the results for our 2009 Reds:
You may want to click and open it in a larger window to get the full view. The one thing that surprised me was just how well our right fielders performed in 2009. The next thing was second base. I give Brandon Phillips my share of crap around the internet because I feel fans overrate his bat dramatically because of his RBI numbers 'being so good'. With that said, for national leaguers he was quite good at the plate. He still is in the wrong spot in the lineup by far, but that one isn't on him at all.
What does it all mean? Well, looking at those rankings what spots do you think the Reds can improve upon in 2010? What about spots you see a decline at? Here are my thinkings, feel free to share yours:
Improvement Positions:
Center - Its going to be tough to be as bad in center next season. Even Willy Taveras playing there next year is likely to be much better than he was in 2009. Given that Stubbs is likely to see most of the time there, even the most pessimistic on Stubbs think he will hit better than Taveras did in 2009.
Third Base - Scott Rolen makes a lot of his value on the other side of the ball, but even at this point in his career he should very much be expected to provide better offense than what Edwin and Rosales brought to us in 2009.
Declining Positions:
First Base - Call me a pessimist if you will, but I don't expect Votto to replicate another .375 BABIP season in 2010. If he falls down even to a .325 BABIP he would have to have the same rate of strikeouts, walks, HBP, SF and SH while hitting 42 doubles and 35 HR to have a .979 OPS. I just don't expect that big of a jump in power for Votto. I think he can be around the .900 OPS range, but he isn't likely to sniff .950+ again this year.
The Rest
I expect just about every other position to be about where they were. I think Jay Bruce picks up the slack in 2010 and makes up for the guys who filled in for him very well in the season. We have the same catchers back and while Corky Miller and Craig Tatum did get some playing time I figure they wind up in roughly the same area overall.
Anyways, that is my opinion. What about you guys?
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Comments
Brandon Phillips had the 14th most base runners on for him in the NL in 2009
He had 128 more base runners on for him than Joey Votto in only 100 more plate appearances. Votto is the one that should be complaining about lack of base runners. If only he could get on for himself.
Fun fact of the day: Joey Votto batted 126 times in the first inning. 74 of those times (59%) were with 2 outs and nobody on base. Only Braun (81) and Pujols (78) had more PA with 2 outs and none on in the first inning, and both had 30 more PA in the first.
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I know it's a normal reaction to a comment by me about BP
but I actually wasn’t being critical of him. Just stating that he wasn’t exactly hurting for base runners.
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How does he even know these things? It's like he's related to that mainframe in WarGames
and 14th doesn’t sound that great to me. At least it doesn’t after I consitier that the cleanup guy almost always have the most on base for him, and theres only 16 teams in the ENTIRE NL. So I guess you found one more way to say, “at least were not the Pirates”.
Start SEEing motorcycles
I don't always understand why people so adamantly insist Brandon Phillips is in the wrong spot in the order
A lineup optimizer would probably hit him 3rd or 5th (with Joey Votto 1st); he is not well suited to lead off or hit 2nd because of his low OBP. He does hit very well with RISP though, and in his career he has BY FAR performed best in the 4th spot in the order over every other spot. With a lack of any really good other options to hit there, it is not so bad to have Phillips 4th. And with the lack of offensive talent on this team, it would folly to bury his bat 6th or lower.
I'd probably bat him behind Rolen
because Rolen is more likely to get on base. Batting BP 4th is not the worst of Dusty’s lineup sins.
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Phillips
His overall lack of power makes him not well suited for the #4 spot. His overall lack of on base ability does the same. While the Reds haven’t had the best options ever Phillips was batting 4th instead of a guy named Dunn, who far and away was a better option. Moving forward Jay Bruce is very likely to be a much better option as well.
BP in the lineup
When your leadoff guy gets 18 walks on his way to the 100 steals he came up 75 short of getting, and when your No. 2 guy hits somewhere right at the Corey Patterson line, anywhere you put your good hitters is going to be a problem. Improvement at every position will start with replacing Dusty and Jerkoby.
Too free of a swinger to be #3
I like him at 5 or 6
Chris was a guy that ... was heavily misunderstood.. the only guys that knew Chris and knew how good of a heart he had, how kind he was, how gentle he was, how soft of a heart he had, were the guys in our locker room, the guys who were close to him, his family." — Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer
Shhhhh...common man...
jch thinks he’s got that field in pocket…if he only knew.
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
I'm no swinger my friend
I’m the most monogamous man many meet.
"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan
OOOOPppppPPPs
Yeah, for sure Peach…jch is just a homebody…fun evening for him is watching the DIY network…
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
Is it somewhere on B-R that you can look up a team's position numbers?
The thing that caught my eye was Fielder who played all but a few innings is ranked below the Padres. Gonzalez was below him in OPS+ and I wouldn’t think that Kyle Blanks (Banks?) or whoever they used as a backup was hot enough to skew their numbers up.
yep
Go here. If you click the red link on each position, it will show how each team is listed. If you want to sort the table, on the little window that pops up, click Permanent Link and it will take you to a table for that position that is sortable by column header.
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Chutley!
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
mango chutney?
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Mango Chutney!
Mango Fucking Chutney!
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 19, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Doug, it looks like you used tOPS+ for these lists
and I think you want to use sOPS+. tOPS+ would be comparing that position to the rest of the team (i.e. the Reds 1B hit 51% better than the team average). sOPS+ compares it to the rest of the league for that position (i.e. the Reds 1B hit 12% than the league average 1B).
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Coke
I did have a few Cokes last night…. they kept me awake, but didn’t keep the brain functioning correctly.
Yeah, that was one of the first things i noticed too
Although I believe Josh Willingham got a bunch of time in LF too.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 19, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
I think (hope) our production at 3B is better
Since, hopefully, we don’t get anything near full-time play out of Rosales there. If SR stays reasonably healthy, END can spell him at 3rd.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
It is looking like END may be in AAA next season.
Chris was a guy that ... was heavily misunderstood.. the only guys that knew Chris and knew how good of a heart he had, how kind he was, how gentle he was, how soft of a heart he had, were the guys in our locker room, the guys who were close to him, his family." — Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer
I didn't realize Chris Young was so bad last year
Graphical explanations of stats always make me smile…Charlie Scrabbles linked to this a good bit ago, but I’m still in lust with it.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
1B
Votto’s rates will go down a little, but hopefully he won’t miss as much time as last year. It’s amazing we were that high considering Hernandez got a fair amount of time there. If Votto gets 155 games the 1B rank should stay about the same.
Gomes happened to have his good games in RF
Plus, Balentien, Bruce and Dickerson weren’t terrible. But yeah, that does seem high.
They weren't actually 3rd in the NL
they were only 3rd in the NL when you compare them to the rest of their team. They were 6th in the NL compared to other RF.
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Wait, what?
So the Reds hitters ranked 3rd in the NL against the rest of the Reds? What other Reds’ positions finished ahead of the rightfielders in right field?
no
Reds right fielders had an OPS that was 27% higher than the rest of the entire Reds team. That was good for 3rd best rate for right fielders compared to the their teammates in the NL. Reds right fielders had an OPS that was 5% higher than the rest of the right fielders in the NL, which was 6th best in the NL.
The issue is that the metric being used (tOPS+) compares players to their own team. What should have been used was sOPS+, which compares players to the rest of the league for that split (in this case, playing RF).
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then my explanation worked!
I won’t try to explain it again because honestly it doesn’t make much sense. Ultimately the problem is that Baseball Referense lists a version of OPS+ (tOPS+) that doesn’t make much sense in this context, which makes it hard to explain. And unfortunately, while clearly on an all night bender, Doug accidentally used tOPS+ when he should have used sOPS+. Using the proper version of OPS+, this is where the Reds rank at each position among the NL:
C – 11th
1B – 6th
2B – 7th
3B – 13th
SS – 15th
LF – 14th
CF – 16th
RF – 6th
P – 8th
PH – 6th
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So is there some sort of tribunal Doug must attend or something?
Does he get haunted by three ghosts of OPS+? That would be strange… But I’m almost certain that he would emerge a better person in general.
I notice that Laynce’s clutchy-ness earned him, and him alone, the 6th position in the NL. Way to go Nyx. Everything else reaffirmed that fact that we had a piss poor year.
Start SEEing motorcycles
how would they rank if doug had used fOPS+?
by Brian B on Dec 22, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's too funny I can't stop laughing
Nice hair – no ?
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
huh?
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
I blame Doug
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
I blame jch24
Chris was a guy that ... was heavily misunderstood.. the only guys that knew Chris and knew how good of a heart he had, how kind he was, how gentle he was, how soft of a heart he had, were the guys in our locker room, the guys who were close to him, his family." — Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer
Wait, so the problem is that someone used a wrong letter?
Isn’t that a justin thing to do?
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
Well speaking of Justin...I hope his Christmas present arrives before Friday..
I bought it online….
Incompetents invariably make trouble for people other than themselves.
Larry Mcmurtry
Survey SAYS...
"Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!"
by "Red" Moskau on Dec 23, 2009 6:31 AM EST up reply actions

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