Red Reposter - Is Jay Bruce the New Adam Dunn?
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Illya Harrell at Bleacher Report has a feature on Juan Francisco
It's an interesting read, as he says the non-tendering of Jonny Gomes is because the Reds want to see Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso in the lineup together. He also says Francisco's biggest malfunction (other than being blocked positionally) is "a major case of Jay Bruce syndrome, striking out way too much." He ALSO calls Bruce "tremendously overrated". It's definitely worth reading.
The majority of folks 'round here love The Boss, so this kind of criticism of him comes somewhat as a surprise to me. But it just now strikes me that he could potentially be the lightning rod that Adam Dunn was (and Edwin Encarnacion should have been *sniff) due to his power + strikeouts + good-natured Texas demeanor dynamic. Of course, it's worth noting that Bruce's defense is about 3 wins better than Dunn's, and he doesn't walk as much, but superficiality never stopped anyone from a good ol'-fashioned effigy burnin'. -
You know it's a slow Hot Stove Season when...
"Reds come up short in Counsell stakes" is the headline of a story. Frankly, I think the Brewers did us a favor here. Yeesh. I suppose we are left to hope Paul Janish dramatically improves his hitting, or that Miguel Tejada will play SS here in exchange for a coney and a chance to marshal the Opening Day parade. -
Jonny Gomes says he willing to come back to Cincy
No hard feelings, bro. Fay quotes $1.5 mil as Gomes' estimated number had he gone to arbitration, and frankly it's hard to begrudge the man for that. The only thing I can think is that the Reds want to spend that money on a SS and are confident that guys like Wladimir Balentien, Chris Dickerson, and Chris Heisey can get the job done. And now is the time when I remind you of the 2nd guaranteed years to Mike Lincoln and Willy Taveras. -
Chris Pummer and Howard Megdal at The Perpetual Post judge teams for their performances at the Winter Meetings
Here's what they say about the Reds:
"CHRIS PUMMER: Lose. The Reds will probably have to dump payroll this offseason, and Winter Meetings would have been the best time to do it. Now, who knows what the return for Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Brandon Phillips will be with a glut of players on the free agent market?
HOWARD MEGDAL: Bigger lose comes if they deal Phillips at all."
It's looking more and more like the Reds will not dump any significant players for payroll reasons. As Pummer says, the Winter Meetings are the place to do that, and the Reds didn't. -
Fay says Micah Owings would likely have been non-tendered as well
had he not lost the coin flip with Mike Fontenot for Super-Two status. I like Owings, and I think he'll pitch better this year than last. -
The Fay thinks Alfredo Amezega could fit as the UT guy the Reds are looking for
I'll pass, unless it's a minor league deal. -
Doug Gray asks you to take a look at 7th round pick Josh Fellhauer
He's a CF from Cal State Fullerton and was one of my favorite picks of this year's draft. -
FanGraphs unveiled their newest statty toy
wRC+ is pretty much a better, more precise stat than OPS+. -
Jim Misudek at the Reds Internal Affairs blog wrote his last post
He's taken a job as the Media Relations Coordinator for the Braves. Good luck Jim!
0 recs |
194 comments
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Comments
Chris Plummer is a beat writer now?
It’s a far fall from the Austrian hills, Mr. von Trapp.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Dec 15, 2009 10:27 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
ok hard to take what this guy says seriously
when he says Francisco plays plus defense….
but at least its something to read
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
From everything I've heard and read
That BR article overrates Francisco’s defense at 3B. I’ve heard average range, at best. And there is no mention of his erratic arm, just that it is a “canon”.
Other than that, the article is weak.
Sidenote: For Reds’ fans grumbling over Jonny Gomes and his not being offered arbitration—the Alonso/Votto experiment is the reason.Except that neither player has played anything but 1B or DH for the last year. While Francisco has at least played some LF. I think we are more likely to see Todd Frazier in LF next year than either Alonso or Votto.
he suffers a major case of Jay Bruce syndrome, striking out way too much.
Pop quiz: Who had a higher percentage of strikeouts in 2009, Jay Bruce or Joey Votto?
The greatest possible scenario for Juan Francisco and for Reds’ fans is to see the kid get a full seasons worth of tutelage under Louisville manager, Rick Sweet, and hitting coach, Smokey Garrett—two of the best in the business.
If that happens, Francisco strikeout ratio could easily drop to one per seven or eight at-bats instead of it’s current one per four and without losing any significant power.
Really? He’ll cut his Ks in half and not lose any “significant power.” If that’s the case, then bring those guys up to the big leagues and see if the can eliminate “Jay Bruce Syndrome” today! Hell, I’ll even run the telethon to raise money to make it happen.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
I would officially like to blame
every minor-leaguer in the Reds system for making the big club a failure. All is lost before a sample size is even gathered, alas.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Dec 15, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, there was plenty wrong with that article
but it was the “Bruce is overrated” bent that really grabbed my attention and i didnt want to turn the Reposter into an FJM kinda thing.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Can we have a separate feature where that happens?
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
sure
while we’re at it, we can do a shot-for-shot remake of Psycho. both very good ideas.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
You're going to hate your Christmas present...
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
you got me a Christmas present?
you handsome devil, you!
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
It's a shot-by-shot remake of Jay Bruce
breaking his wrist.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
...
you handsome devil, you
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
hey thats not very nice
i think he is very handsome, and so does his mother
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
That's true
Just imagine the resultant progeny if Jose Rijo, Chris Sabo and Sean Casey had a child. And that child was 4’9" and 289 lbs.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
that sounds hawt

Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
by Slyde on Dec 15, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I knew you'd hate it
How about a post-by-post remake of Fire Joe Morgan signed by the cast of Yes, Dear?
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
would you rather
the fat sassy one or the short neurotic one?
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Why choose when you can have both in the same package?
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
touche, honky
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Holy shit
That’s the cruelest thing I’ve ever heard, and I am a heartless bastard.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 15, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Bleacher Report
is the sort of blog that makes people hate blogs. No references, no idea who’s writing it, and pretty much taking the worst parts of The Dirty and folks like us in one fell swoop
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Dec 15, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that's what I was thinking
How do you call a former #1 prospect in all of baseball, currently one of the youngest players in MLB “tremendously overrated” without any numbers or evidence?
Who is this guy anyways?
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
I don't know why I feel the innate urge to go over there and argue.
Reminds me of this XKCD:

"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 15, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Agreed. Does anyone have a credible source saying that Votto will be going to LF before spring 2011?
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see Francisco in LF
He seemed to be decent in the limited sample last year. He’s no Jay Bruce in the OF, but he certainly isn’t the train wreck that Adam Dunn was (calm down people, just talking defense).
He’d be good for 30+ HRs at GABP in a full season.
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
Yeah, don't.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
The only thing I didn't get about Dunn
How could he have such a noodle arm having been an All State QB in Texas?
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
Was his sail limp too

First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
o sorry i forgot
you had the one intimate moment with him…
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
watch it buddy
you’re getting a little too close to “text chatting” for my liking.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Seriously though.
“Dunn sucks” is not what I’d call a good argument. Unless you explicitly state that it is, like Dude Rock does.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
seriously though
i like dunn, just felt like being argumentative. He would probably be top 3 DH in baseball right now, just plays “awesome” defense
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
I think you meant to post your comments here:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
hey hey hey
calm down, i wasnt being serious. i like dunn, he is a great hitter
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
I just meant that if you are posting absurdities because you temporarily feel argumentative,
then Fey’s blog is the better place.
I’m thrilled that the notion offended you. That’s good comedy. :)
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
the people that post there
make me extremely angry, sometimes i want to throw things just from reading them
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
I don't think I've read that blog's comments in 2009.
It was my gift to myself.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
It's the entire Enquirer website
I made the mistake of reading comments for a regular news story recently, and fucking WOW.
"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan
Dunn sucked so bad
that he was an all-star.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
no one that hapless in the outfield had any bizz being an all-star.
by Eastwindquinn on Dec 15, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, so take that all-stars Manny Ramirez, Shawn Green, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, and Raul Ibanez!
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
30 dingers ? Discuss please..
This is the Major Leagues we are talking about…I mean Jay didn’t hit 30 what makes you think END would do so..I’d say 18-20.
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
The constant Jay Bruce bashing in there baffles me
If you read that article without any knowledge of the Reds, you’d think Jay Bruce was Willy Taveras. I bet he’s pissed we didn’t get Juan Pierre to compete for the RF job.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
# of Jay-Z songs referencing Hova: ∞
- of Jay-Z songs referencing Juan Pierre: 1
definitely a good argument.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Dec 15, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Ha!
The White Sox just traded 2 minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. The Dodgers are also picking up a large portion of Pierre’s salary. Phew. Dodged that bullet.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Hmmm.
I don’t like second guessing Kenny Williams, but I wonder about this deal.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 15, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
danggg
he is like the willy taveras/corey patterson man of my dreams! and only 2 prospects? jee wizz.
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
wizz, to be sure.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Dec 15, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
LA is getting Jon Link and John Ely.
That’s two pretty solid pitching prospects. Link could help the bullpen this season. Ely is a former Miami Redhawk and was impressive in AA last season.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 15, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
They are also paying $10.5 million of Pierre's remaining contract
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
That's the going rate to have Pierre NOT play for your team in 2010.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting.
I’d like to see his attribution on the Votto-Alonso information. Francisco’s plus defense is a mystery, as well. I still think Francisco is more likely to be Wily Mo than George Foster, but I hope the Reds keep him and give him a good look in AAA. If he doesn’t pan out, he doesn’t pan out. I don’t see him having great trade value at the moment.
As for Burce being overrated, I’m sure a good many teams would be willing to take him off the Reds’ hands. Amezaga is a player I liked at one time, but not nearly as much, now. Have been a fan of Fellhauer for a while. I don’t like the way he rests his bat on his shoulder at the plate, but if it helps him load up, then OK, I reckon.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 15, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions
I like Fellhauer too, I hope he gets a shot in Lynchburg this season
which reminds me, isn’t it great that guys like that get to go to Lynchburg instead of Sarasota? Now we won’t have to say stuff like, “yeah, he sucked in A+, but let’s see what he can do in a more hitter friendly league”
It was almost like A+ was a wasted level as far as talent evaluation, now we should get a much better idea of how guys like Fellhauer are developing.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
Agreed on all counts
Is it just me, or was that a steal in the 7th round? Polished college outfielder from a winning program, with plus defense and speed and OBP around .350 in his first season? I’ll take it.
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
I have to say, for all we bitch about the Reds FO, Chris Buckley and the scouting team have proven to be pretty great
I was reading something today that said a lot of organizations had Leake in their top 5 (obviously those drafting below the Reds).
And how about Heisey? Plus, most or all of their top picks (1-2 round) turn into legit prospects.
If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke
But don't like half of first-rounders end up working in an auto dealership?
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
and plus
even if he does poorly, he can always become FAILhauer
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Dec 15, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone for Matt Capps?
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
Paging Mr. Wade, Ed Wade
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
by Pops Daniels on Dec 15, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
how about Taveras?
sounds like a good deal to me.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Capps is a free agent
but we should still probably send Taveras over to the Pirates, just to be cordial.
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
who's Capps?
i just want a cure for the Virus.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
really?
common
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Edwin Encarnacion, anybody?
The Jays reportedly are sending Miachel Taylor, who is being acquired in the Halladay deal, to Oakland for 3B Brett Wallace.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 15, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions
I wonder what will happen to Edwin. I'm really rooting for him to rebound offensively this season.
IAN! I'm on traain!
Here's a big ole cup of feel good for you.
Baseball America revealed the Blue Jays’ top 10 prospects today. Topping the list is Zach Stewart. At No. 7 is Josh Roenicke.
Sorry.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 15, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Though, I'm sure Brett Wallace would top Stewart, wouldn't he?
Red Reporter or follow on Twitter: @redreporter
Probably. Kyle Drabek
certainly will.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 15, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
zack would have been 3 for us
and roenicke wouldnt have made the list… just saying.
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
Quite a comdemnation
of the Jays’ system.
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
it just bugs me
how much people hate that trade. It wasnt that bad…. the only thing that really sucks about it is originally they were going to pay alot of rolens contract and now we are stuck with that damn thing. other wise i thinks its a decent, not good, but decent trade
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
in a vacuum
simply as an exchange of talent, yes it’s not a bad deal. but the fact remains that this is not a vacuum. the Reds were going nowhere and traded two of the precious few pitching prospects they had for an upgrade at already league-average position.
but yeah, in a vacuum i think the deal is ok.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
vacuums are nice, just dont interupt me when im cleaning my room

"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
but more seriously
the trade was not meant to push them anywhere last year, it was meant for this year. So yes, if Rolen blows and we have another losing season; And if Stewart and Roenicke help out Toronto in 2010, then ill be right there with everyone else complaining but cant we wait and see?
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
It's at least an answer to those complaining about a Do Nothing
offseason. The big transaction for 2010 took place at last year’s deadline.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Plus, we will have the opportunity to trade away a lot of veteranz mid-season if not everything falls in place.
We can likely trade away Cordero, Harang, Arroyo, Rolen, and Ramon at the deadline, if need be. That group could yield a buttload of prospects from contenders who often seek a veteran solution for the home stretch.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Problem is
If Rolen doesn’t put the Reds over the top, and its incredibly likely that he isn’t going to, then the trade was for nothing and very likely set the Reds back beyond 2010. The Reds were much more than Scott Rolen away from the playoffs for 2010 and they should have known that. I would not be in the business of playing for .500, but it seems that either the Reds are, or just don’t have a good clue of what their club is likely capable of.
i definitely agree with petey on that one
and i for one am really optimistic about 2010 if we can stay healthy. And i also think Rolen will be huge for us, im not talking about his “leadership” either. His defense is SO much better than EE’s its ridiculous.
think of it this way, going into july we were close to contending and that was with taveras, EE, rosales, gonzalez, and votto out for way too many games. now we have healthy votto, stubbs is huge improvement, Rolen huge improvement, rosales in AAA where he belongs and Janish which is a cheaper better fielding version of gonzalez. Add in the fact that Bruce SHOULD be much better and there’s even more offense/ defense. Sorry that you’re not so optimistic and so hateful over the trade that you cant see any good out of it but damn it i like this team
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
by smitty3 on Dec 16, 2009 6:44 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd for the optimism
Shit, now I’m fired up!
by Brendanukkah on Dec 16, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
I like this team almost as much as I like the 2011 Reds.
This 2010 team has some pitching. Dunno about the pitching staff in 2011…there’s a lotza question marks there.
Also, is Josh Fogg available? Cuz if so, I’d chip in for his salary…with the Cubs.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
my secret wish?
that the Reds sign Brandon Webb next offseason.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 16, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Hateful? Hardly
Scott Rolen makes the 2010 Reds an 83 win team. He also caused the Reds to spend every last cent they had. He is also a free agent after 2010, meaning he is either gone and a waste of resources (money or even prospects) that didn’t get you to the playoffs or someone you gave up resources for that you could have gotten for just cash money (and less cash money at that) in November 2010. If Scott Rolen doesn’t get the Reds to the playoffs, then it just doesn’t make sense as a move for this team.
I like Scott Rolen the player. He is a very good player to have. I just don’t think he is a good move for the 2010 Reds as constructed because in order for them to make the playoffs Homer Bailey needs to throw 190 innings of about 4.00 ERA baseball, Jay Bruce needs to OPS .850+ for 600 PA, Joey Votto can’t take a step back (which is unlikely given his .375 BABIP in 2009), Scott Rolen must stay healthy for 550 PA, Harang needs to stay healthy for 200 innings, Arroyo needs to start striking out guys at a much higher rate or defy the odds more and get lucky to throw 200 innings of 4.15 ERA and Drew Stubbs needs to be a .750 OPS leadoff guy all season.
There are just too many questionables in that scenario for me to make a trade that takes up my only legit starting pitching prospect at the time and my entire offseason budget for a guy who is gone after 2010 or I could have acquired after 2010.
wow if all that happened i would say world series
it wont take all that to make the playoffs, if it wasn’t for an awful July in 2009 we would have been in the playoff race. We are a much better, much deeper team this year. If Rolen goes down we have frazier and francisco to fill in(much better than having Rosales fill in) We have heisey as a backup for an outfield spot if something went wrong. Cozart will be coming up through the season if Janish is struggling. Gonzalez and Taveras wont be in front of Votto. there is just so many things that make us a much better team and we were so close last year. Its also a good thing that Rolens contract is up after 10 or the trade would have been horrible, now if we are struggling at ASB then he can be moved much more easily. Also if he struggles then we can get his salary off our payroll after the season…. If we do good and he does good, im sure it wouldn’t cost nearly as much to resign him in the off season so we get him back in 2011 for much cheaper… i just don’t see many negatives with his contract other than the dollar amount
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
and Arroyo needs to get lucky?
since 04 his numbers….
04- 4.03 era 178.2 innings
05- 4.51 era 205.1 innings
06- 3.29 era 240.2 innings (damn good year)
07- 4.23 era 210.2 innings
08- 4.77 era 200 innings
09- 3.84 era 220.1 innings
but your right. he Needs to get “extremely lucky” to do put up a 4.15 era 200 inning year….
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
Arroyo's XFIP
2007 – 4.73
2008 – 4.12
2009 – 4.56
So yeah, Arroyo is going to have to get extremely lucky or start striking guys out again to repeat a near 4.00 ERA in 2010.
good thing he's got a boat.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Of course
If it weren’t for the team playing over its head in April-June they wouldn’t have been there either.
There is nothing wrong with Rolen the player or even his contract. Its about as simple as this….
Does Scott Rolen make the Reds a legit playoff team in 2010? If he doesn’t (and 90% of people will tell you he doesn’t), then are the 2011 Reds better off with absolutely nothing (because Rolen is either not here, or someone we could have signed anyways), or about $6M in cash from 2010 and Roenicke+Stewart?
i wouldnt say he by himself makes the team a contender
but he is a big part of the many improvements that may make this team a nl central contender
I have to be honest and admit i don’t know a lot about the xFIP stat so i would appreciate if you explained it a little better, but to me it seems that
xFIP is a useless stat. It completely ignores many factors and goes completely on strikeouts, home runs, and walks. According to that he shouldn’t have put up the numbers he did? or is it explaining something else? but he still did he put up consistent numbers and innings regardless of his xFIP so why cant he continue what he has been doing?especially with our much improved defense behind him
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
XFIP
Basically adjusts for a pitchers park and then FIP. Its commonly accepted that a pitcher controls these things: HR Rate (because MLB pitchers average a HR on 11% of their fly balls, thus more fly balls = more HRs), Walks, strikeouts and hit by pitches. Outside of that, its out of the pitchers control and FIP tells us what a pitcher with X rates should be expected to do ERA wise moving forward if those rates stay the same. XFIP simply adjusts that number for the park a pitcher plays in. While the defense helps, it was the same defense that Aaron Harang had behind him, who had a better FIP and XFIP in 2009 (4.14 FIP and 3.95 XFIP) yet much worse ERA. Arroyo was lucky, plain and simple. He isn’t a bad pitcher, but he is likely a #4 who throws a #1’s worth of innings. Given the Reds defense, we should expect our guys to be slightly better than their FIP/XFIP suggests, but not nearly as much as Arroyo was last season.
You're unfairly leaving out the possibility that Rolen will be traded for prospects @ ASB.
And that those prospects could be nearly as good as Roenicke + Stewart + $6M. You’re also leaving out that possibility that the Reds might make the playoffs in this weak-ass division.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
thanks for the support petey
doug can be a difficult person to have a debate with, he is very knowledgeable and very stubborn. 2 reasons i enjoy having convo’s with him.
Doug you also seem to think that Stewart is going to be outstanding and roenicke as well. Stewart, while a good prospect, has never pitched in the majors and only has 14 professional starts, not exactly a large sample size. He could pull a lotzkar or he might not even be a starter. Roenicke has a good fastball and….. well a good fastball. not exactly closer material that everyone seems to think. a decent reliever maybe, but still that’s maybe. pitchers can get away with fastballs in the minors but they need something else in the majors.
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
Response
I do believe that Stewart can provide several years of at least #3 starting pitching numbers (4.00 ERA, 175 innings). You are correct that he doesn’t have a large sample size, but I still don’t think that changes his value. Its not so much about what he can do, but what you received back for him. The Mariners just traded roughly the same package of prospects plus a Chris Heisey type of guy for Cliff Lee. Neither guy in the trade is the type of prospect that Stewart was (Ramirez has similar stuff, but not the polish or experience above A+).
Roenicke, I am more in your area with. I think he is more likely a 7th inning guy, maybe an 8th inning guy. I am not big on relievers in general because I find them easily replaceable almost year to year off the ‘failed starter’ scrapheap.
you wouldnt think
that a team in need of a third baseman and a centerfielder that was shopping a guy like cliff lee would at least seriously consider an offer like rolen and heisey? especially if we paid an extra 6 million? sounds like a pretty fair trade to me. o and btw i would put Philippe Aumont on the same level as zack stewart based off what i seen in the wbc, i really havnt payed attention to his numbers(but i remember him being really big guy with plus plus fastball and plus plus breaking ball)
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
I also remember him throwing gas in the WBC
But his control isn’t great. Stewart walks fewer batters and just about never gives up a HR.
You’re trade idea is interesting but wouldn’t work. Philly already signed Polanco to play third. And Rolen doesn’t exactly have glowing memories of Philadelphia. I doubt he’d waive his n/t clause to return.
Reds + playoffs
Yes, its a possibility, but its very unlikely that we take the division with an 83 win team, which is about what we look like right now with very little room to make moves to improve upon that.
Rolen has a NTC
and he specifically wanted to come to Cincy to be closer to home.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 16, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
you all are misunderstanding
im not saying that we should do that trade, i used rolen because he was saying that the mariners got lee with aumont/ramirez and a heisey type player. he says that stewart/roenicke is the same type of package that aumont/ramirez is and we only got rolen but i feel like if a random team in need of a 3b and a cf was shopping a pitcher LIKE lee, then a package like rolen/heisey plus the 6 million we got from toronto could get it done
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
if you really, truely believe that
like, deep in your soul and stuff, that Rolen + Heisey + $$ could net a pitcher like Lee, then you are crazy.
and the Phillies are crazy for trading Lee for such a poor return. Lee is the rarest of rare commodities in baseball; a top-line Cy Young pitcher still in his prime signed for a very reasonable dollar amount. im not angry that the Reds got Rolen instead of Lee for their prospect package, im angry that the Phillies were so stupid as to let themselves get fleeced and the Reds didnt do the fleecing. just once i want to see the Reds screw someone. just once.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 16, 2009 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
Probably
but not if I were making the list…. I find Wallace incredibly overrated. He doesn’t have any plus tools to his name and is a short fat kid with no defensive skills. Top 100 prospect, sure. Top 75 prospect? Probably not in my book.
Michael Taylor's a much better prospect, right?
Great average and power so far with a body to project. He’s also a year younger than Wallace. Not sure what Toronto is thinking, unless they really believe Wallace can stick at third.
Yes
Taylor has better tools, better production, better projection and defensive position and defensive skill advantages.
If Toronto thinks Wallace can stick at 3B, then more power to them if they can make it happen. They may not be entirely alone with the thought process, but they are by far in the minority with that thinking.
Why don't you come kick my dog while you're at it?
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
It looks like the Jays have found potential replacements for Halladay and Rolen
in the form of top-shelf prospects. From a rebuilding standpoint, they’re doing well.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
They've apparently made out all right.
Probably could have gotten more last July, but Kay Sarah Sarah.
Philadelphia, curiously, might be the team in the mix that improved itself the least.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 15, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Not really
Their payroll situation is going to be fucked for awhile, unlike ours which will be better next year. Wallace will be a 1B or DH.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 15, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
The only person Mr. Wallace likes seeing his payroll get fucked by
IS MRS. WALLACE!
by Brendanukkah on Dec 15, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
not rec'd by anyone yet?
for shame, for shame
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Our payroll should get better at mid-season 2010 if we're not in contention.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
$20MM off the books in Rolen and Halladay
and Drabek and Wallace is nothing to sneeze at, even if Wallace doesn’t stick at 3B. But crimony, I hadn’t realized how much money and how many years they committed to Rios and Wells.
Wells gets $26MM in 2011 with his pro-rated bonus and is signed through 2013. Last year he put up an 88 OPS+. And he signed that contract after an 85 OPS+ year. That’s significantly more painful than I could have imagined and certainly dwarves the Cordero contract. At basically half the cost, CoCo was at least a win more valuable last year.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't Rios with the White Sox now?
That Wells deal is cray-zeeeeeee though.
"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan
Wow, I hadn't noticed that Wells deal by the stats and pricetag.
Makes the CoPat signing look…nevermind.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
glad I'm not a Brewers fan
Counsell, plus a 3-year deal for Wolf?
Ugh.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Wolf's a whole lot younger than I thought
for age 34-36 years, you could do a whole lot worse.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
That might even be a good price for Wolf.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
no thanks
he’s coming off a near-career year.
Before last year, he was unimpressive. There are very few pitchers not named “Randy Johnson” over the age of 30 that I would give a 3-year deal to.
I’d be mad if we’d signed him.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
I think I agree with you at that price for the Reds this year...
…but I think that’s a fair market price. And his previous year was solid, too: more K’s, despite fewer batters faced, and fewer HR allowed than in this “near-career year” of 2009. There’s a decent argument to be made for a guy who has made 67 starts over the last 2 years. Yes, he struggled with injury for the better part of four years, but he seems solid enough now that I’d be very interested. I wouldn’t do a 3-year deal, but I might do a 2-year @ $9M if these were better economic times or we had a bigger budget, regardless. But operating with a player budget of less than $80M, there is no place him on your team. Isn’t he rather Arroyo, but with more strikeouts and one less Nasty Hook?
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
That's a lot of ifs and mights and could bes, jus' sayin'
"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan
The pool of pitchers
who are in their 20s, willing to take a 1 or 2 year deal and pitch well (insert whatever measure is acceptable to you) is bone dry. Has there ever been water in that pool? If you ask me its kind of cheap.
perhaps you weren't following the pre-2006 Reds well enough
if you’re reclaiming a pitcher sub-28, there’s a pretty good chance there’s no claim at all
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Dec 16, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
The more I think about the Gomes non-tender
the less it bothers me. He’s a fun player who I enjoyed having on the team – and would still like to see come back still- but I’d just as soon see Chris Heisey starting against lefties. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that Heisey could OPS 850 against lefties next year, while playing great defense. Frazier has been just as good in the minors against LHP. Wlad and Juan Francisco hit righties better and offer power, while Dickerson has been very productive in the majors against RHP. You could argue that Gomes’ money essentially went to Hernandez, but considering the relative resources at both positions – and the market for catchers – it’s a defensible move.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions
yeah i get that
i dont think it’s the fact that Jonny Gomes was let go that bothers me, but that this team doesnt have $1.5-2 mil to offer to a productive player who plays a position of relative weakness. Gomes would certainly be a Red right now if it werent for Willy Taveras. i should be over that by now,i guess.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Jonny Gomes would have been a Red in April if it weren't for Darnell McDonald
I’m still not over that.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 15, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
That was a much bigger blunder in my mind
As I remember it, they sent him down and exposed him to waivers just because Willy Taveras was sick for a couple days. With how little esteem he seems to get from the FO roster-wise, I’m surprised there’s so much goodwill but it sounds like he enjoyed being on the team. If he signs as a FA at a discount, this might be an instance where it’s nice to have Dusty and whatever vague clubhouse chemistry he brews up.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Why'd you have to bring up Mayor McCheese?
by Highlifeman21 on Dec 15, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
i used Madville's patented Darnell McDonald Ridiculous Nickname Generator
“Fuckpot McPantspants”
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
That sounds like a fantastic children's cartoon
by Brendanukkah on Dec 15, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Queefstain McMistake
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Grimace does do it for you guys?
RR is Rated NC-17 for graphic undergarment blemishes.
Start SEEing motorcycles
More like if it hadn't been for Dudsy Baker
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
I hope we bring back D Mac on a minor league deal
After he went down to Louisville he was solid the rest of the year.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 15, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
No
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 15, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
No
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
here we NO again
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
i thought it was Meryl Streep for
“FABULOUS!!”
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 16, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
No means no.
Except when a lady says it AND instead means “maybe.”
Those times can be very confusing.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
nothing really matters
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 16, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
to me
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 16, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
any way the wind blooooooooooows...
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 16, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
your dissapointed?
i put a lot of thought and effort into it and didn’t get one single rec
life just isn’t worth living anymore
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
I begged you for Abba, not Queen
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
by Cy Schourek on Dec 16, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Petey
i deleted your comment about Taveras. you know yer my boy and all and we tolerate most anything around here, but that’s too far.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 2:33 PM EST reply actions
That makes me wish I remembered what drunken comment I made.
Maybe you can msg me. :)
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
you were drunk before noon?
damn son.
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
I'm on the West Coast here, so we're three hours later.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
i really want to know what his comment was
like really bad
"strikeouts are a lot sexier than groundouts"
something like
“i wont be over the Taveras signing until (racism deleted).”
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 16, 2009 8:01 AM EST up reply actions
I thought my comment was simply grotesquely violent to the point of absurdist comedy.
I didn’t catch on to the unintended race-related thing until Charlie mentioned it now. He was right to pull it down.
That said, I still can’t tell most of you white folks apart.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh brother...
I could rec that but I won’t
Chris was a guy that ... was heavily misunderstood.. the only guys that knew Chris and knew how good of a heart he had, how kind he was, how gentle he was, how soft of a heart he had, were the guys in our locker room, the guys who were close to him, his family." — Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer
Oh, I remember now.
Yeah, that was inappropriate. :)
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
But not undeserved. :)
For the record, I don’t even own a truck.
Give me a lineup of 9 Ryan Freels, and I'll show you a team that can't pitch.
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 15, 2009 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
you got married?
does obc know about this? omg he’s gonna be PISSED!
"Everything you are doing is bad. I want you to know this."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 15, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
You can all three kiss my arse, it's a line from Charlie Daniels
obc, I figured you would have heard the song whilst perusing the dead deer hanging from the decks in your neighborhood.
"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan
oh, I guess I should've read till the end
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Hell yeah CDB
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
I do too, but he's been indicted for improper contact with a minor
Ah, happier times.

"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan
by jch24 on Dec 16, 2009 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You miss JD because Scrabbles deleted an inappropriate comment?
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
Back to the original qiestion
Is Jay Bruce the New Adam Dunn?
Nope..he’s gonna be significantly better than Dunner both as a hitter, a RBI guy and defensively.
Or was this question in reference to Fan-Bashing of the two?
If so Yep.
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
My friend Cal thinks so...although he still has higher opinion of O'Neill's posterior
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.



























