This isn’t about the Reds, rather it’s about the Rays, but Dave Cameron explains how the value of a win differs based on your team’s situation. Spinning it towards the Reds, take this scenario. If you think that the NL Central is winnable this year (i.e. their isn’t a clear favorite and the Reds have at least an outside shot), then that changes the value of a marginal win. Put another way, it makes someone like Maicer Izturis more valuable to the Reds than to say the Orioles. Maybe he only adds a win and a half over Janish, but if that win and a half could push the Reds over the top, then the Reds should do everything they can to get it.

That’s just an example. I don’t think the Reds are a win away from taking the division, but if they were…

The Yankees need to improve their defense.

The Royals just signed Jason Kendall to 2yr/$6M deal in the same off-season that they declined a 1yr/$3.3M option on Miguel Olivo. Poz has two killer tweets on the subject:

Miguel Olivo hit more HRs last year than Jason Kendall hit last year + 2008 + 2007 + 2006 + 2005 + 2004 + 2003 +2002.

Royals projected lineup by 2009 OPS+: 106, 74, 124!, 80, 86, 76, 72, 68, 68. But they’re not done making moves.

So, given the results, it seems that the Reds are best served going after offense right now. I think we can all agree and get behind that. Of course, I’d still like to see what this team could do in this division with a legit #1 starter.

Considering that both Arroyo’s and Harang’s salaries could come off the books next season, it seems like the perfect time to go after a pitcher, even if it means taking on extra payroll. I know, I know, it ain’t gonna happen, but it seems to be the most sensible way to position this team to compete this season and into the next.
Other than a trade scenario, I wonder if it wouldn’t be worth the risk to go sign a high-risk/high-reward type pitcher like Sheets or Bedard. Any thoughts on what type of contracts they might demand, or if either are worth the risk?