How Do We Fit the Reds to Dusty Baker's Managing Style?
by Slyde on Dec 1, 2009 9:59 AM EST
in Off-season
62 comments
Chris Jaffe is releasing excerpts of his book Evaluating Baseball's Managers at The Hardball Times. Today, he looks at Dusty Baker, and even though it doesn't talk about his time with the Reds, I found this passage relevant:
Much of the commentary on managers (including, admittedly, much of this book) presents a reductionist view of their job, portraying a skipper as someone who has the same impact on all environments at all times. In reality, managers are better at some parts of the job than at others. Place a man in a situation that fits his strengths, and he will look like a savant. Put that same individual on a team that highlights his weaknesses and people will call him a dullard. Dusty Baker’s experiences with the Giants and Cubs provided ample evidence of this phenomenon.
Many of us knew that when Baker was brought to the Reds as a Big Name Manager™, he may not be a good fit for the team that he was given. I think we have seen that at times with him, especially in his first season when he declared that "this is Wayne Krivsky's team, not Walt Jocketty's and not mine" (that sentence still pisses me off). It is unclear to me whether this team is molding into "Dusty's team." There are some pieces that suit his style, but I'm not sure the team as a whole is "in his wheelhouse" as a manager.
The real issue that I see with Dusty, strategically, is that he seems to be very dogmatic in his commitment to a certain style of play, regardless of his personnel. I see very little creativity out of him. He seems to manage strictly to the book. That's not to say he can't be successful - obviously he has had success elsewhere - just that the pieces within the team need to be specifically aligned to his style in order to facilitate that success (plus it helps to have the best player in the game). The Reds might be able to get there with Baker, but given their lack of budget, I'm not all that confident that it will happen.
Rather than spending time talking about what Dusty does wrong though, let's talk about what the Reds need to add in order for Baker to be successful as the manager. What do you think the Reds should be doing to build a team that suits his style?
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a CF and SS with high OBP
because those guys will always be at the top of Dusty’s lineup.
by GrooveLeg on Dec 1, 2009 10:15 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
The Reds need to add microphones to the bats to help Dusty make decisions.
Really what I think the Reds could do to help Dusty’s style is the same thing we all think they need to do to make the team better anyway: get a SS who gets on base more consistently. Dusty’s going to hit him 2nd anyway.
Calmer than you are.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Dec 1, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions
Let's see here
To make a team that fits Dusty’s style you need one key element. Barry Bonds in his prime. Even Dusty couldn’t fuck that up.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.
Yet he still managed to.
Due to his notorious overworking of pitchers. I like Dusty as a person, but I was a bit skeptical even initially when he became our skipper. Considering how he almost single handedly killed Kerry Wood’s career in Chicago, I didn’t want to see him do the same here with Harang, Arroyo, and others(and later Bailey and Cueto). My twin brother(who is a Cubs fan) staunchly defended Baker anytime I told him he was ruining the Cubs. Even Piniella can’t fix that mess there.
That Said, I’d love to see Lou come back here.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
i think we are on our way to creating a Dusty-proof lineup
whatever problems he may have had in the past regarding abuse of pitchers, i think he is over it. i cant count on one hand the number of times in the past 2 years that Dusty has made me uncomfortable with the way he uses pitchers. he rode Coco and Masset pretty hard for stretches, there was the obvious boner with Harang in SD and the extended rain delay, but really he’s been pretty good about protecting the arms. (obviously, im not blaming him for Volquez)
as for the lineup, i think what we need are players that fit perfectly into specific roles. if there is room for debate on where or when a player plays, im afraid Dusty is going to make the wrong decision. So if we have good players that fit well into Dusty’s specific roles (Votto is the 3 hitter, Stubbs is the leadoff speedster, etc), then the decision is made for him and he cant mess it up.
the only positions that are not definite right now are LF, SS, and C, and thankfully LF is pretty much a toss-up. whoever plays out there is likely not going to be much better/worse than anyone else. SS is a concern, but mostly because there just isnt much talent to choose from. that’s hardly Dusty’s fault though. Catcher is a big concern of mine, as i think we are likely to see Ramon catch 120+ games next year if he stays healthy, whether he’s playing well or not.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 1, 2009 11:05 AM EST reply actions
You got me thinking.
There has of course been a lot written about how Dusty has handled young pitchers throughout his managing career but has anyone ever taken a look at what he does with catchers?
Surely he’s had at least one old-guy/young-guy catching platoon at sometime in Chicago or San Francisco.
Anyone?
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 1, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
At one point
Joe Girardi was the old guy catching for Dusty in Chicago. Not sure who the young guy was, I just remembered that he caught durring Maddux’s starts.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 1, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
skimming over at BRef
his time in Chicago he had primetime Michael Barrett, so that was an easy call for him. Paul Bako or Henry Blanco were not going to stand in his way.
in San Fran, he never really had a good catcher. time was split pretty evenly between guys like Kirk Manwaring, Scott Servais, and Doug Mirabelli. in 2000, he gave a 25-year-old unproven Bobby Estalella the bulk of the catching time and he responding with an .826 OPS. so that’s a point in Dusty’s favor. but the next year 36-year-old Benito Santiago took over catching duties (and sucked) and Estalella went on to have a HOF career with the Blue Jays (sarcasm). Santiago was better in ’02 (103 OPS+) but he stood in the way of 23-year-old Yorvit Torrealba. you cant blame Dusty for playing an average-hitting catcher over a youngster in a World Series season though.
so in summary, my cursory glance at the numbers seems to indicate that Dusty has never had such an opportunity as he does now with Hanigan and Hernandez.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 1, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice work. Thanks, Chuck.
Rec’d.
And has anyone proposed ‘Hernanigan’ as our catching platoon’s nickname?
‘Hernanagain?’
‘Shernanigans?’
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 1, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Of course!
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 1, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
If we assume he doesn't have the gall to start his third-string CF
then most vexing thing I see is his management of SS and C. He greatly undervalues Hanigan’s defense and on-base skills in favor of Hernandez’s veteran clutchiness and RBI totals, while being pidheadedly determined to bat his SS 2nd. I would hope he’d be willing to at least move Janish down in the order against righties. I keep hammering on this, but I think the Reds have to tap someone that can play at least neutral defense at SS and OBP .350+ against righties — maybe that player could be Sutton.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Dec 1, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i hate (absolutely and completely) hate Red Sox fans
but goddammit, i am so in love with Theo Epstein. he gets it. everyone in their front office gets it. i want my team to get it. i want it so bad my heart could burst.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 1, 2009 11:56 AM EST reply actions
Maybe they move Pedroia and then trade for Phillips.
Then the Reds could get back say, Buchholz and other(s), perhaps, and Frazier could play second!
Not likely.
Calmer than you are.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Dec 1, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
i bet Phillips would be even better in Fenway
his offensive style seems perfectly suited to banging doubles off the Green Monster. if it were Bucholz and another good pitching prospect, i would seriously consider it.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 1, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
And then you have more payroll flexibility! Presto!
Calmer than you are.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Dec 1, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Team Dusty can win with.
C-Joe Mauer
1B-Votto
2B-Phillips.
3B-David Wright
SS-Ramirez
LF-Holliday
CF-Ichiro
RF-Jay Bruce
Rotation
Lincecum
Santana
Holladay
Becket
Greinike
Bullpen
Coco
Masset
A Bailey
Pappelbon
Nathan
Rhodes
Harang
I’m pretty sure you give Dusty that team, it will win a lot of baseball games.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
nah, I'd mess it up
I can’t manage egos very well. And I’d probably refer to everybody by their WAR.
Definitely a good argument.
the catch is
Tavares, Patterson, A-Gon, and Rosales are on the bench.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
Hey, you RR Burgerdorks...
Look what I found while researching Dairy Queen’s ‘secret menu’:
"If you have a spaceship and are looking for a hilarious astronaut with an irregular heartbeat and thirty million dollars, I am prepared to leave as soon as tomorrow."
They call it "Jeremy's colon"
by Brian B on Dec 1, 2009 3:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I lol'd
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Dec 1, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
My bowels moved.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
In my final installment of 'Men and Their Balls (an adaptation of a novel by andromache)
I give some insight into the future sucksess of Dudsy Baker.
See ’Sompething for Andromache.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Err this is a newly published installment for those of you following along with baited breath.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
you are more desperate for attention than a drunken sorrositute at a frat house.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
OK I admit it...
My best work yet and well…I thought it was of merit…
But you’ve put me in my place once and for all J.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
let me ask you something
would you rather have Ramon Hernandez or Kelly Shoppach?
too late. the Rays got Shoppach for a song.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 1, 2009 8:24 PM EST reply actions
I wish we had a hotshot catching prospect named Stevie Ray Vaughn
"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan
or Bananarama
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Screw Dusty's managing style
I don’t care what he thinks now, next April/June/August, or more importantly, April 2011. If you want to find a team that tailors itself to Dusty’s managing style, you better not be a Reds prognosticator. No way, no where, no how is he our manager past this upcoming season. No freaking chance, and given the paradigm of our current roster, we shouldn’t begin to craft our roster according to Dustbag.
This isn’t the Dodgers with Torre, Braves with Cox, or Cards with LaRussa. This is a franchise with a ton of youth and a current manager stuck in the 80’s. We need to tell him that we’re going to be playing who the hell we should play, and that he can buy in or buy himself a condo in Boca in November 2010 if he so pleases. For Gods sakes, there will be plenty, PLENTY of proven managers available next offseason that we can pick from to run this team, and I’ll be damned if we “fit” a thing to his managing style. If he can’t wake up, smell the coffee, and realize he’s got a group of potential young bucks and a MLB audience who thinks he can’t manage, let him go down in his own arrogance. He’s over the hill, beyond his means, and not won a lick here. He’s making tons of dough, Walt damn well better tell him how it is.
Slyde, you know this. How good would the Reds be if they fired Dusty and hired “Jim Tracy” after 30 games next year? Clint Hurdle was in the same predicament. Frankly, Dusty as a lame duck seems like a PRISTINE chance to handpick a great manager for the next 3 years. Get ‘em gone, Walt. I know the shitter’s full, but quit fartin’ around.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 1, 2009 8:38 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Um, oh yeah...
I neglected to mention that I think Dusty should be entering this season with the mentality that he’s not only playing for this job, but for any managing job ever again. This is his last shot, and if he’s not smart enough to recognize the strengths/weaknesses of this roster, he’s given Walt all the evidence necessary to can his ass at the first opportunity.
Bobby Valentine me, baby!
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 1, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Amen to Bobby V!
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Hell I don't even watch baseball as regularly as I used to
And I can still analyze for the most part what strengths/weaknesses we have.
Pros.
Very good defensively
Can play the small ball
Are not the Pittsburgh Pirates or Washington Nationals
Get hot early.
Two young pitchers who could develop into lockdown starters
Frazier is a great AAA prospect
Cons.
Willy Taveras(He in and of itself is reason enough)
Rolen isn’t getting younger
Cannot consistently get runners on base(which hurts the small ball, I’m looking at you, Janish)
No true lockdown starter
Pitching in all phases of the game is inconsistent(especially middle relief)
Lineup fizzles out after the All Star Break
(I know it shouldn’t be about Dusty Sucks but)Dusty Baker is still the manager
Will still manage to finish 5th in the NL central, ahead of only the Pirates.
We have absolutely no idea where Frazier will play once he is called up(My guess is 3B or an OF position)
If we trade Phillips, we’re screwed.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Forgot a couple pros/cons
Pros II
Ryan Freel is no longer in the lineup(shame, because I liked him until he turned into Griffey Jr. Lite) and hasn’t been for quite some time now. Just threw that one in for kicks.
When Harang(And Arroyo for that matter) is on, has shown he can pitch with the best of them.
Cons II
Not a lot of power in the lineup.
Willy Taveras(I really dislike him)
Unless we get a shortstop who can also bat as well as defend, Janish still bats 2nd.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
I figured we didn't need another thread talking about how Dusty sucks though
so I am challenging you to think outside the brain, like Dusty.
Definitely a good argument.
I hear ya.
If that’s the case, I’d likely lean towards starting Dickerson as my CF, since it’s inevitable that he’d be batting leadoff. While I love Stubbs going forward, we’ll be facing far more RH than LH, and Dickerson has proven he can get on base. That said, I’d sign Orlando Cabrera to be my arbitrary “SS who must bat 2nd.” While I know that costs us ‘more than our projected budget for this year,’ screw that. That should fly so far out the window it needs a rocket to get there. What’s our 2011 projected salary? Like what, 40 mill? Given the SS market for THAT free agent market, what else is out there…nothing!! Cabrera on a 2year deal (like 2 years $10 mill, 4/6 split) makes so much sense it’s absurd, provided that you have to assume Janish will be batting 2nd all year otherwise.
That’s my best Dustyproofing. If that doesn’t exemplify why he should be gone, I don’t know what does.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 1, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
Is there a way we could use a modified DH rule for Janish
That way he’s only on the field at SS and not batting?
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly
I think there is very little that can be done to fit the team to Baker. It’s a bad fit no matter how you look at it.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
I agree completely with what you say here about Baker. Dusty needs to go. He’s a good guy for the community, but his managerial style is dated and has worn thin on myself and most of Redleg Nation. Kinda like how I feel about Shayne Graham as Bengals kicker. I’d be all for getting a skipper like a Bobby Valentine, or hell, even Charlie Manuel. Someone, anyone who has a grasp on how a baseball team should be run in the post-steroid crisis era.
by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 4, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry KisB - Dickerson is at best a #4 guy in the outfield.
He’s had the opportunity in the last 2 seasons to seize an outfield job (a la Stubbs) but just hasn’t been able to do it. I love the guy…but he’s my backup and great one at that.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Oh I agree with you
I’m all for some Stubbykins over Dickerson. I’m just trying to put my Dusty goggles on and head home with a heiffer at closing time.
I thought that’s what this thread was all about, because when it comes to things I’d change, well, the list is long, but so is my johnson.
Set the gearshift to the high gear of your soul.
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Dec 1, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
Don't understand
why you think he didn’t “seize the OF job” over Tavares last year in any reasonable world. He remains the only guy on the roster who has enough speed and proven OBP to bat leadoff.
Madville hates black people.
"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion
by justin007000 on Dec 2, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
(Don't tell my son in law
Or his Dad or his uncle that I bowl with…they think that I like them).
Stubbs siezed the job…he was so effective that Dusty couldn’yt take him out. Period. chris never was that effective. Period.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
I find this argument to be suspect
Dickerson MLB career: .283/.383/.440
Dickerson MLB 2009: .275/.370/.373
Dickerson MiLB career: .260/.363/.414
Stubbs MLB 2009/Career: .267/.323/.439
Stubbs MiLB Career: .269/.364/.401
The only thing that Stubbs has on Dickerson is that he is a couple of years younger. Otherwise, Chris was just as effective as Stubbs.
Definitely a good argument.
And Dickerson had 103 more PA than Stubbs last year
in his first 196 PA (matching Stubbs’ total), Dickerson batted .293/.392/.414. So in the same sample, I would say he “seized the job” more than Stubbs did.
Definitely a good argument.
So you are blaming dusty for not giving Dickerson the CF job?
Stumps hit more HRs than C-Dick.Stole more bases too… he is more intense and has (IMHO) a much higher offensive ceiling than Chris.The team won a high per centage of games during Stubb’s short but exciting tenure. I find these components the tie breakers.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
Stubbs (so far) stays healthier than Dickerson
by Brendanukkah on Dec 4, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe...has anyone done a DNA test to make sure that Stubbs is pure Aryan
Hey C-Dick is one of my favorite players and until I saw the amount of room for growth that Subbs has (over the that which Chris has), I would have be a fan of him getting a starting role. But it is pretty obvious that IF he (Stubbs) plays to even 85-90% of what he played at the end of 2009…he’s the man in 2010.
IF has become my favorite word re: The Reds
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill
I'd prefer
both in the lineup. Dickerson gets on base more than Stubbs and is thus a better lead off man while Stubbs certainly was impressive at the end of the year. I’d like to see a Dickerson, Stubbs, Bruce OF be given a shot with Gomes/Balantien/Heisey/Frazier/Whoever getting a good amount of playing time as a 4th OF. That OF would probably be the best defensive OF in the majors and would provide maybe 50 steals and 60 HRs.
And one too many leftys in the line up.
C-Dick is better suited to be the 4th or 5th guy, he can pinch run and bunt. Stubb’s upside appears to be pretty damn strong…C-dick is what he is..and that is good, but not as good as Stumps could well be by the end of 2010.
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
Three lefties
in a lineup is one too many? Why insist on having a leadoff hitter who has a 50 point lower OBP?
While it is true that C-Dick has a better OBP
Stubbs beats Dickerson by 60+ points in Slg. and nearly 20 points on OPS. (.323 /.439/.762 small sample size)
I’d rather have Gomes in left Field with .338/.541./.879 than C-dick
If you want a high OBP leading off how about Rolen (He’s faster than Pete Rose ever was) – .370 (same as Chris)/.498/.8680
Rolen 5
Stubbs 8
Vottoo 3
Gomes 7
BP 2
Bruce 9
Hernandez 1
Jannish 6 (For now, too bad C-Dick cant play SS)
Pitcher.
I like this batting order. Has power, speed and can create runs.
Would one of you important Mods email this lineup to Dudsy?
There is an overriding misconception that Clutch is an overriding misconception.
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