Red Reposter - How Much Do You Want Ramon Hernandez Back?
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THT is doing a series of player profiles for their fantasy department
and here they take a look at Jay Bruce. It does a terrific job of breaking down his '09 season, and says the future is very, very bright for him. To wit:
"While at first glance, Jay Bruce's 2009 season seems like a step back in his development, he actually made a number of significant improvements that will progress his career. He improved quite significantly in his strike zone judgment and selectivity, while also improving his fly ball tendencies. While wrist issues are always problematic for a hitter, he seems to have put these concerns to rest with a strong September. For 2010, expect a very different Jay Bruce, one who finally lives up to his No. 1 prospect billing. A .275-.285 average with 30 home runs doesn't seem out of the question. If he is able to maintain his plate discipline gains, he could post an OPS in the .900s as well, with the high .900s a possibility and 1.000—while a reach—not out of the question." -
The Fay says the Reds are talking to Ramon Hernandez about his contract
They hold an $8.5 mil option for next season, which should be declined. They are talking to him about possibly re-working the deal so that he can come back at a reduced rate. I would be ok with him coming back under the right conditions, like if they are paying him $2 mil and he doesnt play more than Ryan Hanigan does. I doubt either of those conditions would be met though. Let us know what you think in the poll below.
The Fay says Nick Masset and Jared Burton are eligible for arbitration this winter as Super-Twos
Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix, and Corky Miller are also arb eligible. Fay says Masset and Burton are "locks" to be offered arbitration, and Gomes is iffy. Micah Owings just missed Super Two status by a few games.
The Fay has been doing Q's and A's for the past week or so
and they make for good reading. Here's another sample:
"Question, from Ethan: 1) Do you think that the Reds will offer Joey Votto a long-term contract in the up-coming years, or do you think they want to wait and see if his depression/anxiety attacks have cleared up before they offer him the big money? And if they do offer one, How much do you think he would command and for how many years?
A: I think they will try to lock him up once he’s ready for arbitration. The problems seem to be behind him, but we’ll have a better idea after this year. As far as money, I would think it would along the lines of Brandon Phillips’ 4-year, $27 million deal."
Sheldon is fielding questions as well
I wont repeat any here, but they mostly cover who can be traded to make payroll space and the emergence of young players. And Sheldon is against expanded replay for baseball. He must be dumb or something.
FanGraphs takes a look at the new Bill James projections for 2010
and picks out a few intriguing projections for guys who have yet to make their MLB debuts. They spotlight one Todd Frazier, who James projects to hit .278/.336/.471. That .800+ OPS is pretty eye-popping for a rookie infielder. I think it's pretty safe to assume that Frazier will not see much time in the bigs next season though. If (when) Rolen gets injured I think El Nino Destructor Juan Francisco will be his stand-in at 3B. A mid-season trade of Brandon Phillips could work in his favor though.
MiLB.com is doing a series titled "Path to the Pros"
They are retelling the stories of how some of today's stars came up through the minors. They havent done the feature for the Reds yet, but former Red Reporter Favorite Adam Dunn is profiled for the Nationals. It's an incredibly interesting read. Here's a snippet:
"In the years I've managed in Double-A, you can name the guys on one hand who've come to Double-A and taken off," (Phillip) Wellman said. "Even some of the brightest prospects seem to struggle at first and they come out OK, but Dunn was one that never did that. He came from low-A and he didn't miss a beat."
It also says that Dunn was offered the chance to come up to the big league club in '99 in the heat of the playoff race, but he turned it down because he felt he wasnt ready and it would disrespect the players who had been around and put in more time than he had. I had never heard that story before. HT to RLN for this one and the Bruce one.
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Comments
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic about Sheldon
Are you in favor of “expanded replay?”
by Brian B on Nov 6, 2009 9:12 AM EST via mobile reply actions
eh
kind of. i was really just trying to mimic the general discourse on these kinds of things.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 6, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
Good job, Charlie. That's some interesting reading
IMHO, we may look back on 2010 and the offense’s improvement and decide the best trade the Reds made was trading an [relatively] unproductive, injured Jay Bruce for the stud Jay Bruce.
At least that’s what the optimist in me in thinks. The cynic just laughs and laughs
Bruce is definitely a key to the offense
unfortunately, I think we have to be prepared for a fall-off from Votto, which means that an improvement from Bruce will likely just be balancing that out. I guess what I’m saying is, this team really could use another big bat.
Definitely a good argument.
Or more competance from "others"?
for instance, a return to hitting for some power by Rolen (and health) and season long .500 slg Johnny Gomes might make up for Votto’s return to Earth.
Then again, how dare you talk to to my cynical side on a day where I contemplating optimism!
Still, Ultimate Truth resides in
this team really could use another big bat.
PS If you think about, their defensive efficiency improved like they wanted and their pitching was average (8th in the league in VORP, which, I know, is not the best measure). In fact, their runs against was 9th in all of MLB. Yet, the offense was just terrible. IF rolen can stay healthy and IF Jay improves and IF Votto just stays near his 2009 and plays everyday, then maybe they improve their output by a half a run and are competitive.
Right? I mean, someone assure me here. I can depressed in May
I hate to act like a player who struggled so much last year could be the difference
but if you can get J.J. Hardy and he puts up 2007 type numbers (or better yet, 2008 type numbers), I think this team becomes a serious contender. The reason for that is because I think Hardy will give you comparable defense to Janish and if he can get his bat back to where it was, he’ll be MUCH better offensively than Janish. Of the players that are rumored to be available, I think Hardy is likely the biggest improvement to the actual current roster of the Reds, besides maybe Matt Holliday. All of that assumes that 2009 was an outlier season for him. And it also assumes that the Reds wouldn’t have to trade a key piece for 2010, which I’m not sure is possible.
Also, I think we will see some improvement in CF, by default. Stubbs/Dickerson should be an improvement over Willy – and even if Willy plays a bit, I doubt he’ll be as bad as he was last year, though that’s not saying much.
Definitely a good argument.
"Also, I think we will see some improvement in CF, by default."
timb is gonna hate me for all this cynicism, but didnt we say the same thing about Two-Pitch-At-Batterson?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 6, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, it pains me to say
Willy WAS an improvement over Corey! Says something about how terrible CP was.
depends on what metrics you use
but in general, I’d say that the entirety of the 2008 CF was better than what we got in 2009, if only by a little bit.
Definitely a good argument.
really?
I don’t want an argument over this (for God’s sake), but what numbers were using (I remember comparing OPS’s at one point).
I'm talking about CF overall, not just Taveras v. Patterson
2009 CF: .256/.298/.352 OPS+ of 74
2008 CF: .249/.299/.401 OPS+ of 85
2008 had the benefit of Bruce, Hairston, and Dickerson tearing it up as CF. Dickerson and McDonald were the only CF in 2009 with an OPS over .800 and that was only 96 PA.
FWIW, Patterson had a .587 OPS as a CF vs. Taveras’ .556 OPS in CF.
Definitely a good argument.
God, those are terrible numbers
Let’s put Taveras and Corey into a death match ring and shoot the winner!
Thanks for looking it up.
Let's also hope that if Janish does play a lot of games
Dusty finally realizes that nowhere in the rules does it state that your shortstop has to bat second. He may even be surprised to learn that the position of shortstop has historically been populated with less than stellar hitters. Feel free to bat Janish lower in the order, Dusty!
by Brendanukkah on Nov 6, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
So do the Twins
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Nov 6, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Why does everyone think this was a good trade?
I don’t see a lot of potential in Gomez – seems like a pretty standard speed-defense guy with inferior on-base skills.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 6, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Because he becomes good in 2008's Baseball Mogul?
You got me. Maybe, because they didn’t trade JJ for Willy?
I tried to post this in the fanshots last week, but it was taken down before I even published
OMGReds has the video of Pete Rose being interviewed by Bruno. Check it out, while it’s still up!
Definitely a good argument.
Former Red Tim Belcher has been named the new pitching coach for the Indians
Definitely a good argument.
Let Raymoan go.
I know catchers that actually can hit are a rare breed but Ramon doesn’t have the defensive catching skills that Hanigan has. Hernandez certainly calls a good game and he could be good mentor for Ryan but I think that Hanigan is ready to rock and roll on his own. Obviously the Reds need a solid back-up who can catch 35-40 games in 2010. I’d t rather see Corky Miller at league minimum or so have that job. Of course there’s always the ‘what if’ Hanigan gets injured and as is out for an extended period of time, like Ramon was last season.
I doubt very much that Ramon will sign for 2M.
To understand Israel and the Middle East, you must understand Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. -Glenn Beck (former cocaine addict and pedophile.)
He might
you figure the economy still sucks, I doubt teams will be spending much this offseason, and it’s not like Ramon’s value is super high right now after his 2009.
IMO it’d be really risky for him to turn down a guaranteed 2 mil to seek more on the open market. I just don’t see him getting 4-5 million from anyone.
I'mma let you finish, but....
I agree with NYC. Abreu has to be fresh on people's (and agents's) minds
Sure, he got the deal he want this off-season, but he could have made far more than five and won a World series if he had judged last off-season better. And, although there is a dearth of catching in the Majors, Ramon is nowhere nearly as valuable as Abreu was
I'd be OK with Ramon returning at $2MM if I had any confidence he'd be back
to even his ‘08 level. But he played at basically replacement level last year, is 34 next year and was said, at least by Dusty, to have a “degenerative type knee condition.” I don’t see him getting much better than last year and certainly not any better than Hanigan in terms of value.
Per our discussion about margin of error for small-mid market teams – and in light of the total lack of payroll flexibility the Reds have, he’s not worth the risk – especially if it means not signing Gomes. Just go with Castillo at league minimum, at least you’re getting a utilityman in the bargain.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 6, 2009 10:26 AM EST reply actions
...who will then be parked on the bench because he is the backup catcher, thus rendering his utilityman skills (such as they are) useless
I’m a fan of Wee Willie Wilken, but I think I’d almost rather go with Craiggers Tatum as the backup than Castillo.
by Brendanukkah on Nov 6, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
And Ramon would probably be worth the $2MM
if it weren’t the Reds. But that money seems better spent not on a guy who profiles as a part-time catcher, but toward a leftfielder or SS acquisition – though I wonder about whether Jonny Gomes makes sense either. I think he has the potential to hit 25+ HR and go .270/.340/.550 over a full season, but whatever Fangraphs uses to calculate WAR is pretty low on his defense – and it seems likely he’s bound to regress to something closer to his platoon splits next year. I like Gomes, but he seems like a double-edged sword: play him full time and you’re seeing more sub-par defense in outfield and questionable performance against righties. Play him in a platoon and it seems like a waste of abritration money when you could be paying Heisey league minimum to hit righties at an acceptable rate.
Another unfortunate predicament resultant from the Reds financial straits. If they had the flexibility, paying Gomes to be a fourth OF or platoon guy would be no big thing.
Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 6, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Reds news!
Corky Miller and Darnell McDonald have been outrighted to Triple-A! Two more spots open on the 40-man, plus the Reds avoid arbitration with Miller. I believe both players have the option to refuse assignment, but I’m not sure of that.
Definitely a good argument.
Good thing we have Mark Sheldon to clarify such things
"We, as for me all seasons you are affected peculiarly in the edge of my seat and are happy concerning the fact that the Adam Dunn fan has been mixed up exactly." - Reynard-san
by BK on Nov 6, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
1 step closer to 'credsfan wearing his embarrassing avatar
you are so going to suck it brother.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 6, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Boy dusty must be uipset
Daffy McDoormat has got to be one of his favs…what if he refuses.
But he won’t cause ain’t no one going want him anyhow. ’Cept Dusty.
To understand Israel and the Middle East, you must understand Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. -Glenn Beck (former cocaine addict and pedophile.)
I don't understand
why there is any discussion of paying $2-4 million a year for Hernandez. His hitting has deteriorated significantly over the last three years and if he played regularly you’d get mediocre numbers like .250 and 10-15 HRs with slightly below average defense. If the Reds really wanted to spend that much on a catcher, they could get a lot more power production from free agents like Olivo or Barajas. If all they want is a veteran backup and/or someone who can step in if Ryan falls on his face, Blanco or someone of that caliber would be available for less than a mil and probably be as effective per AB as Hernandez would be. Ramon should be gone.
Ramon has the benefit of being
a) a smart catcher who knows the staff.
b) one of Dusty’s favorites.
"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."
I know
Without him, clutch situations would have gone RBI-less.
by coocooforcocoapuffs on Nov 6, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's only beneficial if he:
1. Isn’t the full time catcher
2. Hits way better than Hanigan
3. Remains uninjured
4. Can catch enough games to earn his money
5. Has a bionic arm attached
I gave up working out. My philosophy: No pain... no pain. ...
Mads.
c) Hispanic
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander
Catcher ERA's
Do they mean anything? Ramon’s was the worst on the Reds last year; is there any actual evidence that his “knowledge of the staff” translates to anything tangible on the field?
I admit I’m not a big fan of the stat; if it was valid, Corky would be more valuable than Mauer (his CERA was 1.25 lower than anybody else on the Reds; extrapolating that we get the absurd result that Miller at catcher would cause the Reds to give up about 200 less runs a year if he played regularly). However, when someone mentions a catcher’s supposed game calling or similar type of claims, I’d like to see something backing said claim up.
I think it's been shown that there is way too much noise in CERA to be worth anything valuable
Definitely a good argument.
The Rockville Reds had an awesome logo
and Dunn in a football uniform is just weird.
"And then there was the USAID guy in Kandahar who drove a giant pink Cadillac, which the locals set on fire one day. If you wanted to destroy something symbolic during a riot, you just could not do better than that. Good stuff." - Ghosts of Alexander

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