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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

The Greatest Reds: #23 - #21

23. Adam Dunn

Played as Red Primary Position Career Rank Peak Rank Prime Rank
2001-2008 LF, RF 24 22 19
Percent Breakdown of Value Best Season Best player on Reds
Hit Field Pitch 2004 2004, 2005, 2007
92% 8% 0%
Awards/Honors as a Red Leading the League On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 2002 Walks – 2008

-1st in career AB/HR ratio
-2nd in career slugging percentage
-4th in career home runs
-6th in career on-base percentage
-10th in career OPS+

The Big Donkey. Dunn was an incredibly divisive character during his time with the Reds, owing to his prodigious power, remarkably high strikeout totals, and disinterested defense. Although he was traded before the 2008 trade deadline, Dunn was consistent with his home run output, hitting 46 in 2004 before running off four straight seasons of exactly 40. However, despite the power (Dunn was also good for 25-35 doubles a year), Dunn’s run production was suspect, topping out at just 106 RBI in his peak year. The high strikeouts (led the league in each year from 2004-2006) belied a strong command of the strike zone, as Dunn was generally a lock for over 100 walks each year, leading to his on-base percentage with the Reds running 133 points higher than his career batting average. Ultimately, despite being the best Red of the first decade in the 21st century, Dunn was marked for what he couldn’t do, namely lead the Reds to a winning mark. He was traded in 2008 for Micah Owings and Wilkin Castillo.

Star-divide

22. Paul Derringer

Played as Red Primary Position Career Rank Peak Rank Prime Rank
1933-1942 SP 18 24 28
Percent Breakdown of Value Best Season Best player on Reds
Hit Field Pitch 1939 1935
0% 0% 100%
Awards/Honors as a Red Leading the League On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1935, 1938, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942 Home Runs Per Inning – 1933
Games Started – 1936, 1938, 1940
Games Pitched – 1936
Innings Pitched – 1938
Complete Games – 1938
W-L Percentage – 1939
Strikeout / Walk Ratio – 1939
Walks Per Inning – 1939, 1940

-3rd in career wins
-3rd in career walks per inning
-3rd in career innings pitched
-6th in career strikeouts
-35th in career ERA+

The Reds traded two washed-up players and a never-would-be to the Cardinals for Derringer and a pair of others early on in the 1933 season. Derringer’s introduction was suspect: losing 25 games with the Reds despite a 105 ERA+. He lost over 20 games the next year as well, despite improving his rate stats. Through the 1937 season, Derringer was roughly an average pitcher, with a losing record compiled for a lousy team. Over the next three seasons, Derringer was a very good #2 pitcher for a much improved team, going 66-33 with a 2.97 ERA (126 ERA+) over 904 innings in that stretch. In the 1940 World Series, Derringer was rewarded with the Game 1 starting assignment. He was knocked out of the game before recording his 5th out, allowing 5 runs. He bounced back nicely, with complete game victories in games 4 and 7, the latter a stunning 2-1 thriller. Over his 10 seasons with Cincinnati, Derringer amassed 161 wins and threw for a 111 ERA+ in over 2600 innings.

21. Ken Griffey, Sr

Played as Red Primary Position Career Rank Peak Rank Prime Rank
1973-81, 1988-90 RF, 1B, CF, LF 19 26 24
Percent Breakdown of Value Best Season Best player on Reds
Hit Field Pitch 1976 1980
88% 12% 0%
Awards/Honors as a Red Leading the League On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star MVP – 1980
All Star – 1976, 1977, 1980
N/A

-14th in career runs scored
-15th in career batting average
-18th in career triples
-18th in career doubles
-22nd in career OPS+

Presumably one of the best players ever selected in the 29th round of the amateur draft, Griffey went on to have a career that spanned 19 seasons. It’s difficult to tie together Griffey’s numbers with my standing perception of the player…it feels like something’s missing from the stats. For example, in Griffey’s first stint with the Reds, he played in a little over 1000 games. If the cumulative stats from those years are normalized to represent an average 162-game year, his stat line looks like this: 307/375/437 (125 OPS+), 162 games, 597 AB, 104 runs, 184 hits, 31 2B, 9 3B, 9 HR, 66 RBI, 23 SB, 65 BB. Good numbers, to be sure, but: A) he really only averaged 116 games played per year in that stint; and B) even bumped up to the 162 game normalization, the numbers don’t evoke visions of a starting right-fielder on one of the greatest offensive teams in baseball history. It’s possible I’m not taking the era enough into account, so maybe this is overly harsh. Additionally, the numbers seem to indicate a below-average fielder, despite Griffey’s legendary speed. Other notes: 1) in his career season of 1976, Griffey had his one great offensive season, hitting for a 140 OPS+ and adding 34 steals; 2) to his credit, Griffey’s decline was very slow, and he remained a useful hitter into his 40’s; 3) Griffey’s postseason performances were hit or miss, but overall they were on the weak side (.240 batting average, 661 OPS in 83 plate appearances); and 4) Senior had about 800 more plate appearances with the Reds than his son. And though there styles of play were as different as good be, Senior’s OPS+ with Cincy ended up at 123, just edging out Junior’s 122 mark. I’m sure this comes up a lot at family reunions, and not Junior’s lifetime 480 home run advantage.

The Top 15 Right Fielders in Reds history

1          Ken Griffey, Sr

2          Ival Goodman

3          Mike Mitchell

4          Curt Walker

5          Reggie Sanders

6          Dusty Miller

7          Paul O'Neill

8          Dave Parker

9          Greasy Neale

10        Wally Post

11        Sam Crawford

12        Johnny Wyrostek

13        Tommy Harper

14        Dave Collins

15        Tommy Griffith

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments |

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Dunn's on this list????

what a sham! He’s the worst Reds player evah11

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Nov 25, 2009 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

I was really surprised to see how little of Griffey's value came from his defense

For as great of an offense as The Big Red Machine had, its defense was pretty incredible too, particularly up the middle. Bench, Concepcion and Morgan, and Geronimo patrolling CF. I always assumed Griffey was part of that equation, but it looks like maybe he wasn’t. What an interesting player. A ton of speed, but not many SB and nothing notable on defense. Not much power, but a higher OPS+ than his son. I sometimes wish that the Reds had kept him on the 1990 team all the way through the World Series, but alas.

How much of his value to the Reds comes from fathering one of the greatest baseball players of all time?

by Brendanukkah on Nov 25, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions  

TotalZone doesn't like his defense much either

It puts him at -9 runs during his first stint with the Reds.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Nov 25, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Posnanski's book The Machine

talks a lot about Griffey wasn’t happy because Sparky wouldn’t let him steal bases because he batted in front of Morgan, and Morgan didn’t like guys stealing in front of him because it distracted him.

Griffey supposedly was faster than Morgan. He would have had a ton of steals if he had the green light.

My fantasy football team this year? Lippincott's Shorts

by cesarhernandez on Nov 25, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I've read it

Griffey seems a lot like Dunn in that they were both very gifted players, but the Reds didn’t quite know how to maximize their abilities on the team.

by Brendanukkah on Nov 25, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

That's kind of a sorry list of right fielders too

I will really be looking forward to Jay Bruce rocketing up that chart.

by Brendanukkah on Nov 25, 2009 12:20 PM EST reply actions  

Seriously, that almost ruins my day

If I hear the word 'perky' again, I'll puke

by nycredsfan on Nov 25, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

sorry

but i’ve found that keeping expectations low keeps people from jumping off bridges.

by Brian B on Nov 25, 2009 2:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I hate you, yet I rec you....so conflicted

"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Nov 25, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

that's what he said?

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 28, 2009 1:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Bruce is already top 5-6

Don't pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.

by Caleb on Nov 25, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

BTW

I’m really excited for the top 20, though I can only find 18 players that are missing, so I’m interested to find out who I missed.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Nov 25, 2009 12:57 PM EST reply actions  

you probably forgot these two

Paul Householder and Dann Billardello

by riverfront76 on Nov 25, 2009 4:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Juan Castro

His defensive reputation contributed 130%, which made up for the negative 30% on offense.

by Brian B on Nov 25, 2009 8:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Thinking back on the Adam Dunn trade is always a bummer

You can certainly make the case for not re-signing him last offseason – and therefore not offering arbitration and instead trading him at the deadline in ’08 – based mostly on his defense. It seems to have gotten worse, limiting him to 1.2 WAR last year. The real tragedy is what the Reds chose to do with the money freed up by not re-signing Dunn. $2.25MM to Taveras, $1.5MM to Lincoln, $2MM to Jerry Hairston and about a net $4MM to Ramon Hernandez. The Reds could have brought Weathers back and signed Arthur Rhodes and had around $7MM-$9MM to work with.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 25, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

did Hernandez make more than Freel?

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 28, 2009 1:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Is the final list going to be made a fixture on the main page?

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 25, 2009 1:07 PM EST reply actions  

Adam Who?

Start SEEing motorcycles

by Excalib8 on Nov 25, 2009 3:09 PM EST reply actions  

You know Adam...

Adam from Milwaukee. The southside of Milwaukee no less. So watch the jokes because he’ll cut you.

Don't pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.

by Caleb on Nov 25, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Was that the guy who got drunk with his pregnant wife, only to have deformed child that resembles his mom/sister?

Yea I’m glad hes not in Cincinnati anymore

Start SEEing motorcycles

by Excalib8 on Nov 25, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I'ma bet there's no marriage there

Hell, I’d take 5-1 odds that if it’s his girlfriend, he’s not the father.

"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Nov 25, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

bottom line

ya gotta trade a top 25 alltime Red to nab Micah Owings.

ya only have to trade Wily Mo to nab Bronson Arroyo.

go Micah!

"Nate Silver is a genius" .... BK

by obc2 on Nov 25, 2009 9:39 PM EST reply actions  

You're kidding right...

Only thing Owings is going to excel at at the MLB level is PH.
1. He’s not starter material
2. He’s too expensive as a long reliever
3. He apparently isn’t interested in learning to play LF
4. His facial hair is weird
5. He’s a bit more valuable than Rosales..a bit..

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 26, 2009 12:42 AM EST up reply actions  

he isn't very good

and he doesn’t get on base much, so while his power is nice for a pitcher/pinch hitter, he would be a below average offensesive position player.

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 28, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions  

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