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Short Stops: Instant "Walk-off" Poll

Democracy triumphed last week as 81 voters voiced the opinion of their internet persona on a series of hypothetical solutions to the Reds shortstop "situation." With a plurality of votes (22%), "Move BP to short and try some configuration of Sutton and/or Frazier at 2B" captured the imagination of the electorate, with its promise of a change in position and hope for Frazier and Sutton to bring offense to the Reds' middle infield.

In order to inch closer to consensus, let's look at a revised ballot.

Star-divide

Keep Janish as fulltime starter

PROS:

  • Costs no additional money
  • Gets on base at a decent rate and offense likely to improve over a full year of MLB experience
  • Excellent defense at a premium position, which may be good for at least 1 WAR
  • On their shoestring budget, Reds may have to pay at least $2MM for the chance to net 1 win or so above what Janish offers

CONS:

  • Has hit righties at an abysmal rate: .182/.273/.281 in the majors (264 PA), .238/.324/.358 in the minors (1204 PA)
  • Projects to a sub-.700 OPS
  • Offers zero power on a team in desperate need of it

Move Brandon Phillips to SS, Frazier and/or Sutton to 2B

PROS:

  • Costs no additional money, unless Frazier stands to make more than Rosales next year somehow
  • Allows Frazier to get MLB experience and find a role on the team, priming him to contribute to the 2011 squad
  • Should gauge what Reds have in Sutton, who has put up a respectable .280/.378/.455 minor league line
  • A platoon, with Frazier seeing time against some righties, could be quite productive: In the minors, Sutton is .281/.385/.469 vs. RHP, while Frazier is .334/.406/.576 (!) vs. LHP

CONS:

  • Defense would be significantly downgraded at both positions. It's unclear how much worse BP would be than Janish, but there would be an adjustment period. Sutton plays a serviceable 2B, but Frazier could be very awkward there. Could negate any offensive improvements.
  • Frazier may require more seasoning in Louisville and a platoon could be wasted service clock while he could be playing fulltime in AAA; Sutton's minor league success simply might not translate to being a semi-regular 2B at the major league level
  • Entire experiment may not be worth the risk of the above: compromising the defense while "rushing" Frazier and putting to much faith in Sutton

Sign Craig Counsell

PROS:

  • Relative to Scutaro et al., he can be signed for cheap, likely $3MM or less
  • Had a great year in '09: .336 wOBA, .357 OBP, 2.8 WAR
  • Has been a plus fielder at SS over his career; A look at UZR/150 over the last three seasons suggest he'd be competent to good
  • If he could be signed for a year at $2MM or so, platooning him with Janish could be effective. His .290/.358/.415 lin against RHP last year may be the cheapest way to improve SS production without compromising defense.

CONS:

  • Turns 40 next year. He's due to fall off a cliff and his 2.8 WAR season in '09 was surely an abberation. Projections that regress for age are likely to suggest, on the whole, that he's not going to be an improvement on Janish at all in 2010.
  • Defense at SS could be more questionable that it appears.
  • Price tag may be artificially inflated. Money may be better spent elsewhere.

Sign Felipe Lopez

PROS:

  • .320./.407/.448, .358 wOBA. 4.6 WAR last year
  • Has been a competent fielder in 300 games at 2B
  • Hits LHP and RHP roughly equally

CONS:

  • 2009 was an abberation which will run up his asking price. Something closer to his career .269/.338/.400 line is expected.
  • Likely to be a multi-year deal as he heads heads toward the wrong side of 30
  • May be residual bad blood with Reds organization, despite almost complete turnover since he left
  • Is no longer a SS, so placing him at 2B would incur the BP-moving problems listed above

Trade for top tier young player

I'll reprise the info I listed in the previous post. Feel free to imagine other similarly cost-controlled players with upside. For the purposes of this exercise, only moves that are likely to affect SS in 2010 are considered, so any trade that yields a non-MLB ready SS falls under the "Keep Janish as MLB starter" category.

Erick Aybar (Angels)

The Angels have a potential logjam in their middle infield, but the cost in trade for would be dear. Unlikely to be wrested away for anything that wouldn't short-circuit the 2010 season and amount to a rebuilding gambit.

Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez (Rays)

Both have been mentioned as trade targets here before. Brignac plays good defense and his stock has gone up since last offseason, so any trade might have to start with Chris Heisey as a centerpiece. Rays have Barlett and Zobrist pretty well locked in at ss and 2b for the foreseeable future, so one of these two might be available. Zobrist may be headed to the OF to accomodate Brignac, so S-Rod could be had - though Geki maintains he may not stick at SS.

Jason Donald (Indians)

Seems doubtful the Indians would flip a lucrative piece of the Cliff Lee trade, but they're in desperate straits. According to TotalZone, he's a terrible defender.

Brent Lillibridge (White Sox)

A poor defender, but with the White Sox surplus at 2B and SS, coud be pried out cheaply and has quite a bit of upside.

Split Time between Sutton and Janish

See the above entry on Sutton.

PROS:

  • No additional cost
  • Could greatly improve SS offense against RHP

CONS:

  • Sutton would provide substandard, possibly terrible defense at SS
Poll
What should the Reds do at shortstop for 2010?
Keep Janish as starter
20 votes
Move BP to short and try some configuration of Sutton and/or Frazier at 2B
12 votes
Sign Craig Counsell as possible platoon partner
6 votes
Sign Felipe Lopez to play some role in the middle infield
1 votes
Trade for a top tier young player such as Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Erick Aybar or Jason Donald
12 votes
Split time between Sutton and Janish
4 votes
Some other signing or trade
6 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 78 comments |

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Comments

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I've been push-polling for the Move BP to short and try some configuration of Sutton and/or Frazier at 2B Campaign

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 23, 2009 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

A possible "Con"

It seems that players’ offensive production suffers with a position switch, though I don’t know of any evidence of that. Might BP’s production dwindle?

And might the Rays be more willing to part with Bartlett than the cost-effective Brignac?

The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.

-Mark Twain

by poojols on Nov 24, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

ok ok ok

i’ll do it. I’ll play shortstop for the Reds. Yes I’ll have to give up paying 10 gazillion dollars a year for grad school, but I’ll solve the Reds problem at Short Stop.

I was a fine infielder in little league, ground balls and pop ups were no problem. When i wasn’t “bailing” due to the fear of being hit by a very hard ball, I could hit for power, even when I was bailing I still made contact, even if it was just a weak ground ball to second. I also had good plate discipline, honestly if it wasn’t over the plate I didn’t swing. Coach would ask, why did you take 3 straight pitches, I’d respond they were an inch of the plate, I don’t expand my zone even for a chickenshit volunteer umpire who is spending his weekends helping out rather than doing his own thing.

I’ll do it.

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 24, 2009 12:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Someone with better databases than I might want to tackle that one

BP used to play short, but I think his move had to do as much with his perceived ability there as the fact that the Indians had Omar Vizquel as SS when he was coming up. If he looks like a disaster out there, you can always move him back.

I think the Rays would probably hang on to both. Barlett gets a raise this year, but he’s still under team control. He put up almost a 5 WAR season last year and Brignac hasn’t arrived yet. I wish I could be a Rays fan somehow. They’re sitting pretty fat.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 24, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Jannish will never hit as well as Sutton

Sutton will never hit as well as Frazier.
the Reds need offense.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 23, 2009 5:02 PM EST reply actions  

Your syllogism checks out

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 23, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

thanks Dr. Sabo...I was worried about the test...at my age and all.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 23, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

down goes Frazier!

down goes Frazier!

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

by bbjones on Nov 23, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 23, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

hey there madville...wrong fighter

Photobucket

big george foreman ko’d frazier…that picture is Clay over Liston

Nobody listens to Andrew

by nlt-andrew68 on Nov 25, 2009 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Really...I got that photo from Ali - Frazier fight at google...

Must have had some other stuff in there too.
My bad.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

no worries..just trying to keep things straight for the kiddies

Photobucket

as for Ali..well he whupped everyone anyway

Nobody listens to Andrew

by nlt-andrew68 on Nov 25, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions  

ask jch and mads what they'd do

then do the opposite.

piece of (peach) pie!

"Nate Silver is a genius" .... BK

by obc2 on Nov 23, 2009 8:56 PM EST reply actions  

/delete'd

"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Nov 24, 2009 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Although it is an honor to be included in the same sentence with jch...I take issue with your oppositional stance..

except the case invloves pro-creation.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 24, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

inv loves leads to pro-creation

hyphen/d

"Nate Silver is a genius" .... BK

by obc2 on Dec 3, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Look what I found on eBay

Somebody is offering a Rice Owls 2003 World Series Championship Coca Cola carrier.

That’s our future slugging shortstop on the far right – #11.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 23, 2009 9:13 PM EST reply actions  

yes

I came across an amusing interview with him, where he finds out that he’s on the list every year at the Rice scavenger hunt. No one has ever brought him in, but he says if they came and knocked on his door, he’d go along with it.

But he’s not only never been a Red, he plays for a division rival. I thought it might piss people off.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 23, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

i was only pointing out the obvious

i guess im just really good at being sarcastic.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 23, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

was that sarcasam?

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 23, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Don't feel bad Chuck

I thought he was talking about Janish, as well. Small world.

by Excalib8 on Nov 24, 2009 4:35 AM EST up reply actions  

eh? Never heard that story.....

Do tell!

"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Nov 24, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

his wife:

not sure I’d be sleeping around on her myself.

I love that not even he knew that he scored and he continued to try to put it in - Evilducks

by sharks on Nov 24, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't forget

David Justice allegedly screwed around on Halle Berry. HALLE. BERRY.

"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Nov 24, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Reality

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Nov 24, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

/misogyn'd

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 24, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Black & white movies, auctions, & women

All things that are better when silent.

AMIRITE??

"Santa Claus doesn't use Craigslist." -- 'tHan

by jch24 on Nov 24, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

No kidding...especially with fake breasts the size of bloated gourds.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2009 12:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Me.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I was around before the inception of breast enhancement.

I have the unique perspective to say that in most cases I tell the difference.
That’s all I will say as to the delicate nature of this subject.
Except to say that the idea in general is grossly overrated and grossly overstated.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 3, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Having trouble digging up the source, but

one of the reasons the Reds included him in the Kearns trade to Washington is b/c FeLo’s married and he was hooking up with Reds employees, and had a seriously relationship with one employee in particular.

I’ll keep digging. I remember after coming across that gem that all of a sudden it made some sense as to why the Reds included him in that trade to the Nats.

by Highlifeman21 on Nov 24, 2009 11:26 AM EST reply actions  

Mrs. Krivsky ??

now it makes more sense !!

Nobody listens to Andrew

by nlt-andrew68 on Nov 25, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

i bet JCH slept with Mrs. Krivsky

that is totally JCH’s style.

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 25, 2009 12:50 AM EST up reply actions  

A majority of RRs are in favor of an internal solution

FWIW, I’m in that camp. It probably makes the most sense to have Janish start the season as the regular shortstop, but I’d like to see Sutton see some PAs as a utilityman/pinch-hitter/occasional starter.

You can’t deny the allure of Frazier’s splits against LHP. After a couple months in AAA, and if Janish is still floundering at the plate, I’d love to see him come up and have the Reds try something creative before the inevitable sell-off.

Yeah, those guys and the Cincinnati Reds. They're a terrible football team. / Because they're a baseball team? / Exactly. You know who's the worst football team? The Philadelphia Flyers. - Best Show

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Nov 25, 2009 1:19 PM EST reply actions  

Ummm creative and Dusty Baker are proof that ultimately opposite do not attract.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

I was reading old posts and I'm curious

“Paul Janish is a slick fielding shortstop, who just can’t hit. He is a defensive replacement.” justin007000 – January 2nd, 2009

Now I’m not saying that you should bloat the facts to make his honeymoon a little easier, But please, Conceal your ballot if you feel it a necessity for national security.

Start SEEing motorcycles

by Excalib8 on Nov 25, 2009 5:21 PM EST reply actions  

paul janish is a good defensive player

but the kid cant hit to save his life.I would go out and try to bring back lopez it will be hard because nobody wants to play for this mess

by vottoholic on Nov 26, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Moving BP to SS

           makes no sense whatsoever. He’s a Gold Glover at 2B and a guy who played below average SS in the minors (148 errors in 572 games; .943 FA). If Frazier’s bat is major league ready why can’t he play SS? I don’t have any fancy schmantzy UZR’s for the minors, but his FA and RF down there at SS is much better than Phillips’ (.961 and 4.63). In fact, Janish’s minor league numbers aren’t all that better than Frazier’s at SS (.970 v. 961 and 4.55 v. 4.63). If we can’t get a decent hitting major league SS, I’d rather see Frazier and/or Valaika get a shot rather than staying with what we know is going to be the worst hitting SS in the NL. Finally, contrary to the assertion in the article, there’s no reason to believe Janish will hit better as he plays more – I heard that claim in August and he hit around .180 in September/October while playing almost every day.

by no1marauder on Nov 28, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions  

I don't have the skill to put forth a sabremetric explanation BUT:

I love Frazier…I saw him in ST last year and unless his range has improved immensely I think he would be a bust at SS. BP would do significantly better at the position…plus he’s got the experience to position himself better now to cut down on angles and make better plays.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 28, 2009 3:17 PM EST reply actions  

who swung like a girl?

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 28, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Valaika swings like a girl

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 28, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

my dad hated Laynce Nix at spring training

and i mean he is close to your age, so i figured you too would see baseball in the same way.

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 28, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Laynce Nix is considerably younger than I

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 28, 2009 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

i meant my dad

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 28, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions  

You dad is considereably younger than Laynce Nix...

Hmmmmm

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 29, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

if that girl is Mrs. Tiger Woods...

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 29, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

apparently she does know how to use a golf club.

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 29, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes

         you see lots of minor league SS that couldn’t cut it at the major league level be shifted to 2B and then 5 years later shift back to SS and use their greater experience to “cut down on angles and make better plays”.

              I found some numbers at TotalZone saying that Frazier was about a +10 minor league SS and Valaika about a 0 to -5. Either way, what evidence there is seems to say that dumping defense at BOTH 2B AND SS is unnecessary.

by no1marauder on Nov 28, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions  

Minor League Stats for what they are worth

             Frazier: 249 games at SS: +16 runs
             Valaika: 738 games at SS: -7 runs

              http://minorleaguesplits.com/

by no1marauder on Nov 28, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Are runs bad or good?

Screw it. Just leave Yawnish in, that way at least we don’t have to do any math. Nerds.

Start SEEing motorcycles

by Excalib8 on Nov 28, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd like to see how Frazier's range stacks up against Valaik's

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 28, 2009 4:35 PM EST reply actions  

Oops

          I put “games” where the column was “outs” in the numbers above. The actual numbers were:

           Frazier: 112 games at SS: +16 runs
           Valaika: 390 games at SS: -7 runs

            Those numbers say Frazier was (is?) an above average defender at SS in the minors and Valaika slightly below average. Interestingly, Janish’s minor league numbers from TotalZone aren’t as good as Todd’s: 448 games at SS and +18. I’m not saying, I’m just saying ……………………..

by no1marauder on Nov 28, 2009 5:27 PM EST reply actions  

Hmmm - that's interesting...Lets give Todd a try at SS

what do you say Dustbag?

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 28, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

From last February

http://www.redreporter.com/2009/2/12/756529/should-todd-frazier-be-the

           I wasn’t posting here at the time, so it’s not plagiarism.

by no1marauder on Nov 28, 2009 7:25 PM EST reply actions  

the difference between what you are suggesting and what I said in that post

is that I would never suggest Frazier should be playing shortstop in the big leagues next season. I was only questioning whether the Reds had given up too soon on Frazier as a shortstop. If the choice is to have BP and Frazier playing up the middle, I would much rather have BP at SS.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Nov 29, 2009 10:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Heer Heer

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 29, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Why

           since the figures show that Frazier is a better SS than Phillips and Phillips is a better 2B than Frazier?

by no1marauder on Nov 29, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

heer heer!

beer beer !

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 29, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

awesome.

"There is no harder thing than to have Glenn Beck outlive your child."-The Onion

by justin007000 on Nov 29, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

You're going to hate this, but

small sample size.

The fact is that we have no clear statistical indication as to what Frazier’s ability is at shortstop. He doesn’t even have a full season’s worth of games played at shortstop in the minors, and typically fielding statistics take about 2 to 3 years to stabilize to a point that they are predictive. And that’s for big league stats that are much more precisely tracked than the stats for TotalZone, which are based off of Minor League Gameday data. That data are not collected for the purposes of defensive metrics. They are collected simply for display purposes on MiLB Gameday. Sean Smith uses that data to estimate the fieldability of a batted ball and translates that into an estimated defensive value for a player. That is to say, the data, even in a large sample, likely aren’t nearly as reliable as the Major League counterparts.

I’ve never seen Frazier play shortstop, so I don’t have any clue as to whether he can actually play shortstop. The data tell me that it might be worth a shot, but obviously the Reds don’t think so since they’ve given up on the idea even when it would be prime time for him to keep trying it. From what I have seen of Brandon Phillips at 2B, I think he could be at least an average SS, and the Major League data would suggest that too. Could the data and I both be wrong? No doubt. It doesn’t likely matter though because I don’t think there is any real chance of the Reds moving BP to shortstop anytime soon.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Nov 29, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

You're ridiculous

             Basically, your post says “I have absolutely no data to support my argument, but if the Reds say Frazier can’t play SS that’s good enough for me”. I have no idea what data supports the idea that BP could be an average major league SS; he was a below average minor league SS and his few games at SS in the majors have produced a below .900 FA. I know “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE”. However, I’ll take a small sample size over what you use which appears to be your feelings based on no data whatsoever (Hello, Dusty).

              Finally, I don’t find over 100 games over a few years a particularly small sample size to indicate whether Frazier would be a serviceable SS. Even if he isn’t the above average defender the TotalZone numbers indicate there is nothing to show or support the claim that he would be a bust at SS in the majors.

by no1marauder on Nov 29, 2009 7:14 PM EST reply actions  

Defensive stats are still problematic

At the very least, you need a very large sample size to get anything useful – several years’ worth, as Slyde says.

For that reason, many people who are otherwise sabermetrically inclined still value scouting reports over stats when it comes to defense. Presumably, the Reds are relying on scouting reports when it comes to Frazier at SS.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 29, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying
Basically, your post says "I have absolutely no data to support my argument, but if the Reds say Frazier can’t play SS that’s good enough for me".

Except that in my comment I said, “The data tell me that it might be worth a shot…” My post that you linked to above said that the Reds may have given up on Frazier at shortstop too quickly, and I posted the exact same data that you have posted. I have looked at the data, but I also know that the data by itself can’t be trusted. For one, it’s not clean, and for two, there’s not very much of it. Even if you think that 100 games is enough, it’s not. It has been clearly proven, time and again, that there is a natural fluctuation in zone related defensive metrics on a year-to-year basis mainly because balls are not normally distributed by batted ball type and zone location. This means that players that are below average defenders over a 3-year stretch, can actually perform very well in a select “season’s worth” of data. Sample size isn’t about a total count of data. It’s about finding the point at which you can consider the data to be meaningful. I don’t believe we have a meaningful (i.e. predictable) amount of data on Frazier at shortstop, therefore we have to trust the scouts, whoever they might be, a little more.

If it were me, basing it solely off of the data, I would have kept playing Frazier at SS until I saw a clear indication in the data either way. Obviously though, the Reds scouts don’t believe that he has the range to handle SS because clearly his bat would be outstanding there.

However, I’ll take a small sample size over what you use which appears to be your feelings based on no data whatsoever

I have no guarantee that Brandon Phillips will be an average SS, but I’ll explain to you why I think he will be, and I am in fact using data, not strictly my gut. Tom Tango has shown that a typical shortstop moving to 2B usually gets about 4 runs better on defense and a 2B moving to SS usually gets about 4 runs worse. BP is worth about 7 runs defensively at 2B, so I’ve given Tango’s system a little “benefit of the doubt” and just dropped BP by 7 runs. He shows some incredible range at 2B and I don’t see any reason to believe that his range will suddenly dry up by moving to the other side of the bag.

The other reason I believe that he’s better than his minor league numbers would indicate is that he’s simply better defensively than he was in the minors. He made 16 errors in 126 career games in the minors at 2B. He’s made 16 errors over the last 2 full seasons in the majors. I think he is a more mature player and at the very least would likely commit fewer errors than he was in the minors.

There are downsides to moving BP. For one, he’ll be 29 next year and his range isn’t likely going to be improving. Moving him to a slightly more taxing position could backfire big time, especially as his range declines with age. I’m not convinced it is no-brainer to move BP to SS and I’d only do it if there was a truly viable option at 2B. This is because I’m not necessarily down with the idea of even bringing up Frazier at this point, even if it is to play 2B. He only had 69 plate appearances in AAA last year and he’s only played 37 games at 2B in his career. I think he’ll need some more time and truly the only reason I would bring him up to play 2B next year is if Brandon Phillips is traded. However, if the middle infield is going to be BP and Frazier, I’m still convinced that BP should be the shortstop.

Definitely a good argument.

by Slyde on Nov 29, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

last in stallment of Men and Their Balls

sompething for Andromache

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 30, 2009 10:00 PM EST reply actions  

First time poster here, Haven't watched a whole lot of baseball since the strike

I still follow the Reds until they implode after the all star break every year. Then I watch them until football season starts. At that point, Bengals are opening the season, and the Reds are playing for next year.

Like Jannish as a defensive SS, no doubt. His hitting, or lack there of leaves something to be desired, though. I’d be all for bringing back Felipe Lopez if he actually wanted to come back to Cinci.

The solution is simple. We travel back in time about 20 years and bring back Barry Larkin in his prime. (I can always dream, can’t I?)

by Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds on Dec 1, 2009 2:43 AM EST reply actions  

Hey man, glad you made it over from CJ.

"If it wasn't this, it'd be something else."

by ZJiff30 on Dec 1, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Class of 82's Crusader

Anyone else see that on Moller?

Start SEEing motorcycles

by Excalib8 on Dec 2, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Moeller sucks!

"Nate Silver is a genius" .... BK

by obc2 on Dec 3, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

No Moeller catches

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.
Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 3, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

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